The Talga Bar
- Thread starter cosors
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cosors
👀
At 3.2% the spread has not been this low for a long time. At least I didn't notice it. Normal for ASX shares is around 5%.TLG up 20% in Frankfurt, that's more like it!!
The makers are willing to make an offer. Volume is expected to increase? Lure bid (?).
Mongoose66
Emerged
There is plenty of Australian wine at the moment, we have about 2.8billion bottles worth in storage.
Australia’s oversupply of wine tops 2.8bn bottles in wake of China trade dispute
New report suggests glut will last years, even if Beijing drops tariffs early, while prices of Australian red wine grapes plummet by more than half
cosors
👀
I'm sorry to hear that! We all have our challenges or (massive) problems with China.There is plenty of Australian wine at the moment, we have about 2.8billion bottles worth in storage.
Australia’s oversupply of wine tops 2.8bn bottles in wake of China trade dispute
New report suggests glut will last years, even if Beijing drops tariffs early, while prices of Australian red wine grapes plummet by more than halfwww.theguardian.com
Different issue than your trade problem but I hope the security of the factory and already the EVA or the servers are good. For example, 42% of our cyber attacks come from China. The total damage caused by data theft, espionage and sabotage to the German economy averages over €200 billion => per year. We naively shake the hand that is being nibbled off at the same time.
Our exports to China are decreasing (volume about 100 billion €/year) and imports are increasing strongly (34% up last year to almost 200 billion €). The most popular app here and in Sweden where I first heard about it is a platform for cheap junk advertising that the junk is delivered for free from China. And people love it. No one wants to see that China is costing us at least €84 billion every year with criminal machinations, which is A$140 billion. And dependency is increasing dramatically, despite talk and demands to the contrary. China has the world by the balls.
And here the politically blinded media are spreading the image that China is the victim of the USA. It's crazy what people believe in once they've been 'infected'. People here are still naive in mass and prefer to shout the USA is to blame for everything. Even if they are not angels, of course. For me, I know who I prefer to depend on. Very twisted at the moment. And the media is still whipping this up. Here in the bar I'm allowed to say that I think.
I have no idea how it is with you guys. But maybe someone explains it to me from your point of view.
I think they will guide each of us and assign our role where they want us to be, even if it's through blackmail (?) (see e.g. graphite and steel industry in Sweden or Northvolt) while we lead the really far more important discussions whether one may still use the word blackmail LoL. Seriously, I know a global company that is no longer allowed to use words like blacklist in IT. For us, the issue of gendering in the language (?) comes on top of that. Be happy that your language doesn't need that. But I'm drifting.
Back to the wine. I can imagine that your tempting price level could be used by our big food groups like Lidl or Aldi even though costs have risen. But Aldi's purchasing, like Tesla's, is the devil.
Prices that have plummeted by 67% pose an acute threat to the existence of winemakers. In just three years, prices have dropped to a third! This is highly dramatic even if the increased costs are mentioned. I wish the best to the Australian winemakers and that they will find other buyers. Fruits that are left to rot is very sad.
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cosors
👀
WoW - spread is at only 2.1%! I don't remember seeing it this low than in summer autumn 2020 when it started. Maybe a real tempting offer from the makers?
The volume is very low.
I only noticed it because there is hardly anything happening here with the SP although it is the second day in the +.
Our buy rate (?) is now exactly at your SP incl. currency conversion. Our SP is 2.1% lower. Remarkable.
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teilenswert
Regular
Let's hope that Mark will make a firework of announcements in the next 6 months that will finally bring the share price to a new all-time high. However, the newsletter's announcement that the company plans to be in production by 2026 sows seeds of doubt. Has anyone asked them if this might be a typo? If it's not a typo, then I don't understand why you would communicate it in a side sentence in a newsletter instead of communicating that openly and cleanly in a previous day webinar.
teilenswert
Regular
The other way around. I wonder why it will take over 2 years to get everything up and running. So far, there has always been talk of 2024, although Mark has deliberately kept a low profile and probably intentionally used phrases like "commence production in 2024". The approval process certainly took us a year, I understand that, but I would have thought 2025 was possible.
cosors
👀
2025 is exactly what I'm assuming. As far as I know, the approval for the factory was expected around spring 2023, it took longer. I think it will take at least a year within there is a hall where machines can be installed (16 month from now). I don't know anything about the order of the machines except that ABB is waiting in the wings, they are very committed to Norrbotten and are continuously expanding their presence. Everyone orders their help, but the machines will come from Japan I think. Two years of pure construction time seems too long to me. I expect the first products to be sold in 2025, but we'll see where in that year. Maybe everything will be completely finished in 2026, including laboratory, purification, etc.
But we have the EVA in back up with it's own laboratory and there is the usual bypass for purification, I mean in Belgium and before Finnland (?).
The only disadvantage I see at the moment is the delay of maybe a ½a but that could be worked around, but not completely, so not 2024 I think, but also not 2026. As mentioned in the other thread MT always has a trick up its sleeve that we didn't expect(ed).
I trust that this is being tinkered with right now if not already done, how, what and when.
ABB is professional and huge and it is it's new spot.
But we have the EVA in back up with it's own laboratory and there is the usual bypass for purification, I mean in Belgium and before Finnland (?).
The only disadvantage I see at the moment is the delay of maybe a ½a but that could be worked around, but not completely, so not 2024 I think, but also not 2026. As mentioned in the other thread MT always has a trick up its sleeve that we didn't expect(ed).
I trust that this is being tinkered with right now if not already done, how, what and when.
ABB is professional and huge and it is it's new spot.
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cosors
👀
But that's just my opinion. Everyone else here is silent except of Monkeymandan with a fear/hope about this. I can imagine that the panic is going on over at the other place.)
I remember that we had often wondered how this was/would going to work. And then we were informed about the implemented solution, sometimes only after it was already implemented and sometimes passively through a rare look behind the scenes before.
I suspect that this does not satisfy you. But that seems to be the way it is.
I remember that we had often wondered how this was/would going to work. And then we were informed about the implemented solution, sometimes only after it was already implemented and sometimes passively through a rare look behind the scenes before.
I suspect that this does not satisfy you. But that seems to be the way it is.
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teilenswert
Regular
When Pabs is not active with his countless alter egos, the other place is currently quite civilized. The timing update of the newsletter has been discussed there, but not used for down-ramping at all.
In the middle of 2021, Talga communicated that they were expecting the permits in the course of 2022, that they intend to produce around 19,000 tons in 2023 and that they would like to increase this to over 100,000 tons from 2025 onwards; unfortunately, they now seem to be quite a way away from this. As I said, first and foremost, I don't understand why Talga didn't take the opportunity to neatly lay out this development in the webinar, and instead just dropped it in a side note the day after. But they will have had their reasons for doing so, and hopefully we'll have clarity by the next webinar at the latest.
I appreciate that you took the time to share your perspective.
The timing update of the newsletter has been discussed there, but not used for down-ramping at all.In the middle of 2021, Talga communicated that they were expecting the permits in the course of 2022, that they intend to produce around 19,000 tons in 2023 and that they would like to increase this to over 100,000 tons from 2025 onwards; unfortunately, they now seem to be quite a way away from this. As I said, first and foremost, I don't understand why Talga didn't take the opportunity to neatly lay out this development in the webinar, and instead just dropped it in a side note the day after. But they will have had their reasons for doing so, and hopefully we'll have clarity by the next webinar at the latest.
I appreciate that you took the time to share your perspective.
Hi Cosors, putting my two bobs in here, as I didn’t want you to feel like we are all silent reading posts as if you are talking to yourself, or doing your head in. Your posts are invaluable. Reading 2026 I was a tad deflated, but I believe 2025 is a more the timeframe to produce anode to satisfy customer demands (& possible agreements which should eventuate very soon to o/t). TalSi plant; EVA plant; and partially completed new anode refinery (to produce the permitted 19.5k tpa) I believe can be achieved and what MT & the team will utilize plus have a few cards up their sleeve. Cheers
Monkeymandan
Regular
I’ve been wrangling with this and 2026 completion just doesn’t add up. As you point out, 2024 has been communicated for the last year or two (late 24 most recently by Per-Erik), and they were placing orders for long lead time plant and machinery items months ago, so how could we leapfrog an entire year?
One can only think it’s one or more of the following at play:
- TLG taking the under promise and over deliver approach (for once), ie this has 6months contingency etc to allow for delays which are the norm in construction.
- This factors in the assumption a Supreme Court appeal is lodged and heard, so delaying finalisation of finance and thus cranking up construction. Once they’re on site for the main works they will be burning through tens of millions a month, so they simply can’t press ‘go’ on full mobilisation until funds are in the bank.
- This is the drop dead date for all construction to be completed (ie complete flowsheet), and doesn’t take account of the fact some parts of the process could possibly be outsourced as Cosors has said.
- Typo - unlikely imo.
While it will be great to see revenue in 2025, if it’s early 26 then so be it. The important thing to me now is to see a robust and smart Niska+ expansion plan and the roadmap for it. I know some have lost faith in the permitting process, but I’m confident once the the various EU Acts have been enacted and our project has been listed as of Strategic Importance (surely this is a certainty?), things for the expansion phase will look very different to the past 5 years. I’ll stick my neck out and guess we will be producing at ramped volume from 28/29.
Purely my opinion, but I’m optimistic.
I'm pretty sure I've seen somewhere that it was due to "start" production in late 2024 (early 2025). It's possible the ramping process won't complete until 2026 which will then be full production.
Maybe it also has to do with funding. They purchase a few lines to begin with, and use those to fund the remaining lines to get to full production. EIB funding went from €300 -> €150, maybe that wasn't expected and there's a shortfall. I know Mark says it's because the tranches they give everyone made more sense, but i feel like not for us and it wasn't our decision. I imagine the EIB would give the cheapest funding (lowest interest rate) given they encourage projects like ours and do so much due diligence, why would you choose to take less funding from it? Delaying the final completion of the factory would be one way to deal with a shortfall.
cosors
👀
The EIB is only one of the financing partners. A large part comes from the others. And if I understand it correctly, the EIB is waiting to see what comes from the others in order to close a possible gap.
You absolutely jinxed HC with your opening statement about pabs or whoever is behind those Aliases.When Pabs is not active with his countless alter egos, the other place is currently quite civilized.
In the middle of 2021, Talga communicated that they were expecting the permits in the course of 2022, that they intend to produce around 19,000 tons in 2023 and that they would like to increase this to over 100,000 tons from 2025 onwards; unfortunately, they now seem to be quite a way away from this. As I said, first and foremost, I don't understand why Talga didn't take the opportunity to neatly lay out this development in the webinar, and instead just dropped it in a side note the day after. But they will have had their reasons for doing so, and hopefully we'll have clarity by the next webinar at the latest.
I appreciate that you took the time to share your perspective.
teilenswert
Regular
I contacted Talga regarding the "goal of completion in 2026". Here's their brief statement:
cosors
👀
Thank you for your initiative!
The answer reminds me of a thought I had when I found the newsletter in my mailbox. It does indeed always have a very local character.
And it is two different things what is communicated to outside and to what is internally. I think that is the case everywhere and quite normal.
For me, the date did not hold for several reasons as I mentioned.
I still suspect that the date was deliberately put there and is not a typo. Of course, it's a mistake when you look at the big picture and the cockpit in Perth is certainly not entirely happy.
We only have to look at the factories of NV or Tesla. They are finished and producing but the construction is not finished.
They also have to be considerate with the locals which we don't have to be. So we don't need to care about their date.
At least they now know that their local Swedish newsletter is widely read or has a broader character than just Norrbotten.
I'm going to take a break for a few days. Next round is on me.
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