Talga Updates and Discussion thread

[anbuck]

Thank you! From the statement:
"Expects all appeals to be concluded within months and finance package to follow", I must concede that I was wrong.

I expected that we can sign contracts with the current state of permits, both in terms of off-takes and financing. However, that statement means we cannot sign financing contracts until the appeal has been dismissed. Which means, we probably will not sign off-takes either with strategic partners because the level of strategic investment from our partners is uncertain. Meaning, we are still stuck. That is at odds with the statement by Talga that the appeal rejection in October was holding the door shut and we can now make progress. Therefore, my expectation of signing off-takes now was misguided.

Question, what gives us confidence that THIS TIME its different and we will not have to wait for the conclusion of another layer of appeals?

We are probably going to see another 10% dilution within 3 to 4 weeks. Bullocks.

We know the concession permit and the detailed plan are the final pieces. What isn't clear is how long those will take. Mark has demonstrated in the past that he either has no clue about how the Swedish process works or is blindly optimistic, so I've stopped listening to his timeline claims. Has anyone found any concrete documentation about how the concession permit appeals process works? There's definitely no documentation about how long the detailed plan will take because this is the first time that the national politicians have overridden a locality.

 

[anbuck]

He knows the value of what Talga have, and as a major shareholder isn’t in it todo a deal that will see shareholders burnt. Being a founder led business at a pivotal moment like this is crucial as his interests are aligned with shareholders.

That's great and I believe it, but that's not really the crux of the issue. The real question is what kind of pricing can we get from partners / customers. If there is no mark up for being outside of China, then current prices are going be challenging. I could see Mark making a deal that doesn't have a price guarantee at all and just floats with the market given that he's bullish on demand longer term, but then the stock price might not fully bounce until/unless those price increases materialize.