Technical Analysis

[YLJ]

Great charts, as always.

My daily point of view:
View attachment 2081
The current daily range can be viewed as a possible bear flag in formation. The direction of the
break and volume will be the best indication of implications of this consolidation, though
upside will be walking straight into resistance.
I'm still tracking the Nasdaq as a major indicator unless we diverge or get BRN specific news.
Everyone seemed to get very excited about the strong bounce at the end of last week, but
I see this as nothing more than a Textbook retest of the H&S neckline and weekly 5-SMA.
These levels need to be cleared before I will be inclined to confidence.
If BRN does see another meaningful leg down, I think I will be forced to average up (calculatedly).
View attachment 2082

Don't usually look at this stuff but came across this Excellent video today from some Sotckcharts.com analysts for those interested in Whykoff's methodology:
Overall idea seems very similar to my perspective with some more bull side possibility analysis as well towards the end that
is very well presented and balanced IMHO.
https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2022/03/distribution-or-reaccumulation-699.html

The Flag has broken to the downside today (in line with its intrinsic indication). It is worth noting the relative weakness in BRN in this last consolidation which remained within a horizontal holding pattern when the XIJ took part in the market-wide bounce. These types of price behaviors are helpful in adding odds (for that is all they ever are) to breakout directions.
It looks like the market is becoming impatient with the lack of further updates, but if it were not for market impatience some of the best opportunities I have ever had would not have come to fruition.

The Nasdaq charts in my last few posts are behaving most typically of indecision at textbook levels and still need resolution. Swing Traders of BRN need to be very careful here IMHO.

From my technically managed investment perspective, I have the price clear in my head at which I am willing to look to average up. It may not get there, but having a plan is more important to me than if it eventuates at all or if it succeeds.

If you are a real long-term fundamental purist investor, then you need to ask yourself why you are reading this.
I truly hope this is helpful to some aspiring traders, but a large part of why I post is to solidify my thoughts and have a record of them, so
that I may be taken to task on them, by myself and others who may point out something I did not (or did not want) to see.

GLTA

 

[KMuzza]

Thought post an updated chart & an hourly one fwiw.

Could updated notes in white.

-, but a large part of why I post is to solidify my thoughts and have a record of them, so
that I may be taken to task on them, by myself and others who may point out something I did not (or did not want) to see.

GLTA

To -FMF , YLJ and others on this T/A thread , - thanks for your input , - charting and analysis is fantastic especially your various opinions, - but with the way of the world ATM - and the deathly silence from our new Board Member and CEO- a ANN of some sort will change the outlook in an instance- ( but not expecting anything soon - during this 'down market outlook/cash is king' time and no incentive to push for ASX rebalance position)- waiting for the Europe / Putin event to conclude whichever way, and 2022 second quater revenue to increase - then ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,- well lets wait and see what the charts show then- , (clue- J curve/Hockey stick/ exponential sales/ partner reveals .......all words from BRN top staff echelon members.)-
Cheers
GLTA LTH.

 

[M_C]

Anyone have any thoughts on where bottom is at? Now that the $1.03 gap is closed?

 

[M_C]

 

[Fact Finder]

Anyone have any thoughts on where bottom is at? Now that the $1.03 gap is closed?

From personal experience it is most often about half way between the toes and the top of the head and on the reverse side. Cannot comment on double bottoms as I have never come across one. FF.

 

[Fullmoonfever]

Thought post an updated chart & an hourly one fwiw.

Could updated notes in white.


View attachment 2055

View attachment 2056

Well, obviously still feeling the wider mkt quake sadly but can't blame early holders banking some profits with others maybe underwater at the mo preserving some capital and then couple that with the sharts....bit of a perfect storm really

Same last couple of charts, no new notations but can see the hrly took that dip but has held a bit after the initial drop.

The daily has hit the bottom trend line supp of the wedge with slight inc in vol again & things are getting pretty tight now...break down here & pattern fails. Need a hold / bounce, recovery this week & break through the top trend line on vol soon....news flow?

 

[Izzzzzzzzzzy]

Genuinely thought it would hold $1. Let’s see if this is the bottom. 2025 so close but so far.

 

[Deleted member 118]

Me just realising it’s green today

 

[gilti]

check out the last 45sec of trades.
it,s a bloody farce that this sort of crap is legal

 

[Fullmoonfever]

Well, obviously still feeling the wider mkt quake sadly but can't blame early holders banking some profits with others maybe underwater at the mo preserving some capital and then couple that with the sharts....bit of a perfect storm really

Same last couple of charts, no new notations but can see the hrly took that dip but has held a bit after the initial drop.

The daily has hit the bottom trend line supp of the wedge with slight inc in vol again & things are getting pretty tight now...break down here & pattern fails. Need a hold / bounce, recovery this week & break through the top trend line on vol soon....news flow?

View attachment 2303

View attachment 2304

Well....a little change to the positive last couple of days....not out of the woods yet but better.

Is still trying to hold the bottom TL & bounce as tightens and hourly posted another LL swing with indicator panel showing some green now...lets see if can carry some momentum into the w/end

 

[Deleted member 118]

Markets were very strong overnigh, so maybe another green day before the Friday sell off

 

[Fullmoonfever]

Well....a little change to the positive last couple of days....not out of the woods yet but better.

Is still trying to hold the bottom TL & bounce as tightens and hourly posted another LL swing with indicator panel showing some green now...lets see if can carry some momentum into the w/end

View attachment 2386


View attachment 2387

And for anyone playing along at home

Same charts as at EOD today. Not commented on them but can compare and see any minor changes prev charts.

Still got work to do but at least trying to push the bears a little & make them earn it.

 

[Deleted member 118]

I think BRN share price held up quite well compared to many tech stocks this week and I think it was very fortunate to hold above $1 which might be a good sign for next week if the conflict in Russia ends and the Americans don’t panic to much today regarding inflation.

 

[Deleted member 118]

Nasdaq getting smashed again

 

[Deleted member 118]

 

[Deleted member 118]

Nasdaq

 

[Rskiff]

Nasdaq

View attachment 2619

at least today is up

 

[Deleted member 118]

at least today is up

Wow nearly 3%, but if I was a gambling man we will be lucky to finish green.

 

[James]

Nasdaq

View attachment 2619

Girlfriend walks in this morning with 'are you going to make any money today" just when I opened this up. Far to say we're still laughing.

 

[Deleted member 118]

Stan always comes up with a good breakdown on who’s buying and who’s selling, but I couldn’t post a link so copied and pasted it unfortunately, unless someone else can.

hi Dolci:
I too have be told that about the gaps, it seems the gap on the 1st of Jan around 70c is the second gap since this run, while the 1st gap happened on the 24/12/2021. I was told that normally the 1st gap won't need to be filled, but the second one onward inevitably always get filled. I am just wondering if this is how you know about the gaps theory as well?

regarding to the broker data, when the RSI reached 90, I had every reason to sell a big portion but I didn't, because of what I see in the broker data. the Data shows even if you look at the data from March 2021, the majority of insto are starting to have paper losses as their average buy price was around $1 from 12/03/2021 to 11/03/2022.
https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/image-png.4185320/?temp_hash=7036e3f8fb84b00ee4da8b3e812a3b62

now if look at the data from 4/1/22 where mecedes news came out. it is clear that retailer investors were the major seller while instos bought like crazy with average buy price at over $1.5

https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/2c4f47bdc175d659d6dbeae23b2c670-png.4185326/?temp_hash=7036e3f8fb84b00ee4da8b3e812a3b62

The peak three days happened on 18th, 19th and 20th of Jan. where the RSI reached 90, and looking at the data on each of those days, especially what jp morgan did on the 19th (net bought 10m shares at $2). That was what turned my mind away from selling any of my long term holdings.
https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/34349d9efd0788768d71ba9e6111a95-png.4185331/?temp_hash=7036e3f8fb84b00ee4da8b3e812a3b62
https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/99ebbb101ae9a3131e73ce9a56944a2-png.4185334/?temp_hash=7036e3f8fb84b00ee4da8b3e812a3b62
https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/28451b8d646c2c7705e13a3f4a85704-png.4185335/?temp_hash=7036e3f8fb84b00ee4da8b3e812a3b62

One thing I am sure is that this the broker data for this wrong was totally different from the one in september 2020,
here is the data from March 2020 to March 2021. It clearly shows that retailer brokers were top net buyers, while instos sold huge amount of stocks. completely opposite to the data between March 2021 to March 2022
https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/89808386bbc8406bd2876df569f1dd4-png.4185338/?temp_hash=7036e3f8fb84b00ee4da8b3e812a3b62

So, my questions is, why would these instos allow itself to accumulate so many brn shares and let the price slide below their average cost? Especially when all of us know that Brainchip's fundamentally has being stronger and stronger.

My guess is that instos are intending to shake out more retail investors, especially the multi-baggers. and if that is the case. To do that, they will use small amount of shares to drive down the price day by day until some retail holders start to lose patience or even faith. I think this is how insto can break down some of the diamond hands.

So this my understanding. At the moment, on the daily chart, althought RSI is very close to oversold, but the weekly chart, MACD just started to cross downwards since last week. so I guess not yet a clear sign of rebound?

From the weekly chart we can see since 2020, we had three major run and dip, both the sep2020 dip and march2021 dip bottomed right on the moving average line.
https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/image-png.4185386/?temp_hash=7036e3f8fb84b00ee4da8b3e812a3b62


I only started to learn technical analysis. I hope you and any other technical analyst could shed some more light on this one.

thanks in advance.