Technical Analysis

[Deleted member 118]

Yup....

https://brainchipinc.com/brainchip-takes-wheel-edge-computing-world/

 

[Deleted member 118]

Time to buckle up and hold on tight

 

[YLJ]

US markets (Nasdaq in particular) came strongly off their 5-week SMA areas to the downside.
The possibility of another leg down in the markets over the coming weeks seems a lot more
possible to me now... This will likely put pressure on BRN (save for some company-specific news)
& will be watching how it holds the weekly levels I mentioned previously if that takes place...
I personally won't complain if a "bargain" wants to present itself...
Could well be wrong, but I certainly will be cautious with my entries this week.

Here is an update to my previous few posts here regarding BRN and the position of the
Nasdaq (following their more recent correlation) & why IMHO short term bulls should
be cautious. I would love an announcemt to re-light the flames here, but I am equally
okay with the possiblity of a long-term top up opportunity if price is so inclined.
Will be patient on both fronts...
GLTA

 

[gex]

Here is an update to my previous few posts here regarding BRN and the position of the
Nasdaq (following their more recent correlation) & why IMHO short term bulls should
be cautious. I would love an announcemt to re-light the flames here, but I am equally
okay with the possiblity of a long-term top up opportunity if price is so inclined.
Will be patient on both fronts...
GLTA

View attachment 1489
View attachment 1490
View attachment 1493

Also looking for a top up oppy ;p

 

[Deleted member 118]

 

[Deleted member 118]

I would love an announcemt to re-light the flames here,

How great if our next announcement was a household name.

 

[Fullmoonfever]

Couple thoughts on D chart bottom of post...bit of juncture now & like to see some stabilisation and consol if possible....but also some info on short thinking first...not all pertains to us but can get the gist

Marcus Today | Marcus Today

marcustoday.com.au

The Anatomy Of Shorting

The Anatomy of Shorting. Each week ASIC publishes a list of stocks that have been “Sold short”. In basic terms it means stocks that have...

marcustoday.com.au

ANATOMY OF SHORTING​

When the bear market was in full flight (during the GFC) there was a lot of shorting activity. A bear market is a bull market for shorting so of course it becomes more prevalent, and when only 2% of ASX 200 stocks are up in a year (2008) there is simply no opportunity to make money in equities by just going long. So everyone wanted to know about shorting.

So here is the pocket version of shorting – in a bull market this becomes less relevant.

• In a rising market the average trend is up which favours long only funds and shorting is understandably a small feature of the market because it is playing against the odds and the use of it negates other generally positive returns.
• Shorting sounds clever but if stock markets generally go up it is not something you want to do all the time, just ‘at times’ and in particular stocks that have specific problems.
• You may have heard of ‘Long Short Funds’. These are funds that argue that you are only exploiting half the opportunity if you can only bet on rising prices. If you can bet on falling prices as well you have twice the opportunity. Nice idea but most long short funds fall into the trap of always having some short positions when the market is going up which it does most of the time and having long positions when the market is going down. The net effect is that the shorts detract from the performance of the longs in a bull market and the longs detract from the performance of the shorts in a bear market and the result is a fund that underperforms in all markets. Far better would be a fund that is either short or long, that calls and times the market instead of blurring their returns with both long and short positions all the time.
• 
  “Fear” is much easier to generate than optimism. Spreading fear is much easier and creates a lot more reaction in a shorter period of time. Fear is the weapon of shorters and their job is to take a position and then set about generating fear.
• Fear can create radical share price falls whilst optimism tends to manifest itself slowly over a longer timeframe because it is hard to generate optimism whilst fear can appear in moments. Because of that stocks fall three times faster than they rise so shorting tends to happen in bursts. It is not about taking a long term negative view on a stock, a negative ‘investment’, it is more about preying on stocks for short periods.
• Once short many traders set about generating fear through well placed media articles and commentary (as they did last week with the Australian property market crash fears). When set short sellers do their best to perpetuate the fear.
• There are a lot less shorters than long only investors and to generate an impact they have to focus on individual stocks rather than invest across the board. The game for everyone else is to identify where they are focusing their attention and get out.
• The ASIC list of shorting which we have been publishing weekly in Marcus Today (Wednesdays) is your best guide to picking up on the stocks in focus. The list shows the stocks that have seen the highest percentage of trades as short trades. The trend in shorting activity week to week is of most interest. Look for stocks that have rising short positions and for stocks that appear on the list for the first time.
• There is a flaw in the reporting of shorts because although brokers have to declare if their client’s trade is a short trade they don’t have to declare if it is a covering trade. So you only see the shorts. Not shorts being covered.
• Although shorting is detrimental to equity market investors and hurts the majority in favour of the few the ASX appear unwilling to police it and even discourage it because they are conflicted. When a shorting ban was introduced in the GFC a lot of hedge funds, unable to short also stopped going long. They went to cash and stopped trading. That killed trading volumes, the lifeblood of the ASX. So there is scepticism about their simultaneous role as policeman and beneficiary.
• Shorting is mostly done by institutions and not always just hedge funds. It is becoming an every day activity for many funds rather than a niche business for a few.
• Private investors don’t have the sophistication or firepower to execute shorting selling strategies alone, they have to identify what the major players are doing and piggy back.
• International institutions are more active than the domestic institutions.
• Shorting is always better in packs. This has been the case since George Soros and his disciples took on the world’s currencies. Collusion between shorting fund managers pays although no-one will admit it and no-one will be able to prove that it goes on.

Targets for shorting are stocks in which you can generate fear.​

That isn’t too hard in a bear market and the best targets are those companies with the following qualities:

• Are already trending down or have had ‘shock drops’ already.
• Weak balance sheets – high levels of debt.
• Are in the middle of a “Strategic review” – they obviously have problems already.
• Have lost their CEO or have a CEO with a large personal interest that acts in their own rather than shareholder interests.
• Earnings uncertainty – Cyclical stocks are more prone to be targets than defensive stocks. Their earnings are less reliable and uncertainty easy to provoke.
• Stocks that are hard to analyse – if earnings are predictable you can easily value a stock and it is much harder to spruik disaster.
• Growth stocks on high PE’s. Much easier to provoke selling.
• Generally the biggest shorting commodity is fear of debt which translates into a possibility that the stock could go bust. In the 2008 bear market it is was exposure to subprime, then the credit markets, then the economy. Last week it was the Australian property. Last month it was exposure to energy sector loans. Follow the themes.

The shorting cycle:​

• Identify a stock on the above criteria, one that is highly vulnerable to the fear factor.
• Borrow stock and sell it, putting the price under pressure.
• Tell your mates.
• Drop the odd innuendo about the balance sheet (‘rumourtrage’).
• Hopefully the media picks up on the issues.
• Analysts are prompted to look at the company by their dealers who are worried by the share price fall and the media stories.
• Analysts highlight/re-emphasise the weaknesses rather than commentate on a stock’s strengths (loss of the benefit of the doubt).
• Long only investors jump out.
• Institutions detect the trend and start selling.
• The company is publicly bombarded with barbed questions from analysts and media.
• The company starts to doubt themselves.
• The company starts to squirm and issue pacifying announcements that simply highlight the issues.
• Shareholders start pestering the company.
• The company announce the death knell for all share prices – a “Strategic Review” – which means “we don’t know what the problem is but are going to pay Price Waterhouse an enormous sum of money to do our job for us and tell us what we should already know”.
• Pandora’s box opens on their debt structure, never a good thing – most companies have debt which is very manageable but when those structures are revealed investors are often horrified even though its normal.
• The company addresses debt concerns by announcing a plan to cut the dividend, reduce capex (aka – stop investing in the business) and sell assets.
• Failing that they announce a damaging deeply discounted accelerated rights issue on a share price that has already been carted out and is on multi year lows.
• Immediately after the institutional part of the placement is completed the long only institutions tip the stock back out for a profit driving the stock back down to the placement price.
• Retail investors are offered a the opportunity to invest $5000 at the placement price after all the institutions have already sold out, institutions that weren’t necessarily shareholders before the placement.
• Shorting funds often use the share issue to cover their shorts so a rights issue will sometimes end the “attack” marking a low for the price.
• But only sometimes….

The basic game is “Go short and then start spreading the word”.

How to combat a short attack:​

Announce you have no debt issues and are not going to have a rights issue. Get some fund managers to buy the stock. Get your tame brokers to re-issue their positive reports, sorry, independent research that you paid for when you paid them that large corporate fee last year.

It ends up being a War of Words and if the company wins the rebound is fast as the short funds have to cover in the market in competition with each other.

​

At 18.2.22

 

[Deleted member 118]

Will be an interesting day with BRN down a shed load in Frankfurt. Currently trading at $1.10

 

[DerAktienDude]

I'm definitely in for the long haul, but this upcoming market crash will hurt nevertheless.

 

[butcherano]

Will be an interesting day with BRN down a shed load in Frankfurt. Currently trading at $1.10

And yet BRCHF in the US are actually up 2.5% at A$1.43 (on only 116k volume)....

Edit - this was Friday's closing price. US market closed last night for Washington's birthday!...

 

[Rarosch]

And yet BRCHF in the US are actually up 2.5% at A$1.43 (on only 116k volume)....

The US stock market had closed

 

[butcherano]

The US stock market had closed

lol....public holiday in the US!...well that explains that...

 

[Fact Finder]

Will be an interesting day with BRN down a shed load in Frankfurt. Currently trading at $1.10

Some geography:

Germany to the Ukraine distance 1,519 kilometres & Germany needs Russian gas supplies.

Australia to the Ukraine distance 12,975 kilometres & Australia has its own gas supplies and an increasing number of politicians saying we should leave it in the ground as it is not environmentally friendly.

If I lived in Frankfurt I would be concerned about the tensions for good reason at a personal level.

Living in Australia not likely to affect me in any fashion at a personal level beyond feeling empathy for our German and Ukrainian friends at this time.

My opinion and perspective only DYOR
FF

AKIDA BALLISTA

 

[TheFunkMachine]

Hi Guys, here for another tea leaf reading! Hehe

So it did not end up being a double bottom pattern as I alluded to last time I posted. The next solid support is @ $1.20 with around 1.4 mill shares and over 130 buyers. This will also close a Gap in the chart that I know we all love and adore. Lol.

The other thing I would like to point out is that on the 4h chart on the RSI we are in severe over sold territories and the last time we where this over sold was at the end of last downtrend @ around 38c. So hopefully this indicates that we are at the bottom of this correction.

But always remember fundamentals rule and Charts are only a tool to help us get perspective on market trends

 

[HUSS]

BRN is on 50 day SMA now and this one is a key moving average to hold ATM. Yesterday we lost the $1.34 support from end of Jan 22. But We are still clearly in long term uptrend above 50,100 and 200 SMA. But below 21 EMA. Hope we get some news catalyst in coming days to go above 21 EMA again but market in general is bad ATM because of geopolitical tensions. Our fundamentals have not changed at all, its all about market cautious and intraday trading activities .

 

[TheFunkMachine]

Tough to watch right now. Might tune out for a while. BRN will have its day in the sun again.

AKIDA BALLISTA

 

[TheFunkMachine]

Last post for a little while, but hopefully it helps getting a little bit perspective. I have done some fib retracements on a long term 1 month view of Brainchips chart. It is sitting right above the 0.68 level now from the last bottom at around 38c to the $2.30 top. If you go from the 3 cent level in 2020 we are sitting smack on 0,5 retracment.

Long term Brainchips chart looks great with higher highs and higher lows. The start of an exponential growth curve

 

[equanimous]

After technical analysis of all my portfolio I have come to this conclusion for tonight.

I am not selling my BRN shares. Big thankyou to @Fact Finder and all the contributors over the years to keep the diamond hands since 2016, really appreciate it. Did try to sign up to hotcrapper in the past but made a mistake on application and was rejected but happier to be here. Many blessings

 

[YLJ]

Most of my positions are managed ahead of time and on days like today I like to either get out for some fresh air or
reflect on my perspective on markets and trading.
The following chart compares Calendar Years: 2020,2021 & 2022 (to date) performance of BRN, the XJO
the Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) & the Vanguard Growth ETF (VUG):

	XJO	BRN	VTV	VUG
2020	-2.17%	+855.56%	+0.29%	39.10%
2021	+13%	+77%	+23.32%	66.34%
2022 to date	-4.35%	+55.55%	-2.51%	-14.81
Recent Peak to current price	-6.07	-49.40%	-5.08%	-16.38%

There is so much to glean from this comparison IMHO about markets, sectors, BRN, and emotions. I will point out only a few...

1. The bulk of "quick" large fortunes are made by those who get in very early. Similar fortunes may realistically be made only with a much larger time frame if coming to the party later.
2. Entering at the "wrong" time can be very painful if you are not honestly prepared to see things through because of true fundamental conviction, are over-exposed, or lack a realistic view of how markets behave.
3. Warren Buffett famously said: “Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.” If you understand the crowd he was addressing, it will be clear why this applies tenfold to a company like BRN! I would add that you should not be "investing" in the stock market, trading is another story if you really know what you are doing.
4. Growth stocks outperform the market when there is confidence (or greed), but underperform when there is a concern (or fear). Growth stocks have recently fallen out of favour, which should come as no surprise given current macro factors.
5. BRN is a volatile stock (for better & worse), the implications this can have on one's portfolio fluctuations are extreme and emotions will most likely be too. You have to be realistic and at the very least know what you can handle.
6. Risk & Reward go hand in hand.
7. BRN has still outperformed over almost any longer-term time frame by a very large margin.

As a chartist, I do not rely on predicting when and what news will step in to lend a helping hand. Moreover, you can give me a chart of
almost any company in the world, and if I want to find a technical narrative that supports an entry I could. With the myriad of technical indicators and ways they may be used, there is always a way to see what you want to see if you allow yourself. This is one of the greatest
dangers of TA. I hope a juicy announcement is forthcoming...
GLTA

 

[Fact Finder]

After technical analysis of all my portfolio I have come to this conclusion for tonight.
View attachment 1573
I am not selling my BRN shares. Big thankyou to @Fact Finder and all the contributors over the years to keep the diamond hands since 2016, really appreciate it. Did try to sign up to hotcrapper in the past but made a mistake on application and was rejected but happier to be here. Many blessings

That is clearly a first. Failing the entrance exam for hot crapper. Absolute legend in my world. Great to have you on board.
FF.

AKIDA BALLISTA