The Talga Bar

[BlackBeak]

I was reading yesterday that Russia had a record year for oil sales despite sanctions by selling to China.

You're probably not far off the truth. China currently accounts for 60% of EV sales worldwide, I'm not sure their demand for petrol is exploding. Unless they're stockpiling for a rainy day (or China has just bought less from the Middle East because it's cheaper to buy from Russia), then the oil's gotta go somewhere

Let's reopen the Bar

OK so this massive fall in production costs of fossil fuel intensive synthetic and the huge volumes being produced by China (which came first the Chicken or the Egg ?) ........................................Why ?

Sanctions on Russia....................................Is there a close correlation ?

I mean the spot price for oil in the West has not exactly crashed has it ?

So why has the price of Synthetic dropped so much when the Oil price has not ?

Could it be that since the Russian sanctions on energy exports were applied from early/mid 2022 that desperate Russian gas and oil are being sold into China at ridiculous bargain basement prices far below the average World spot price of Oil or has this already been canvassed and I missed it completely ?

Cheap Fossil Fuel = Cheap Synthetic

I'm trying to work out why Synthetic has exploded onto the scene so much cheaper the way it has?

Has Fastmakets or Benchmark already covered this correlation ?

Anybody?

 

[BlackBeak]

Although if that's true, kinda sad, because it means indirectly every EV sold funds the Russian war...

I was reading yesterday that Russia had a record year for oil sales despite sanctions by selling to China.

You're probably not far off the truth. China currently accounts for 60% of EV sales worldwide, I'm not sure their demand for petrol is exploding. Unless they're stockpiling for a rainy day (or China has just bought less from the Middle East because it's cheaper to buy from Russia), then the oil's gotta go somewhere

 

[manny100]

I guess because due to sanctions limiting the number of buyers China is getting Russian oil cheap.
The push for less reliance on China should keep Talga in business.
If China were to muscle in on Taiwan how could there be meaningful sanctions if the EU and elsewhere relied heavily on China. The world would have to turn a blind eye.

 

[Semmel]

Let's reopen the Bar

OK so this massive fall in production costs of fossil fuel intensive synthetic and the huge volumes being produced by China (which came first the Chicken or the Egg ?) ........................................Why ?

Sanctions on Russia....................................Is there a close correlation ?

I mean the spot price for oil in the West has not exactly crashed has it ?

So why has the price of Synthetic dropped so much when the Oil price has not ?

Could it be that since the Russian sanctions on energy exports were applied from early/mid 2022 that desperate Russian gas and oil are being sold into China at ridiculous bargain basement prices far below the average World spot price of Oil or has this already been canvassed and I missed it completely ?

Cheap Fossil Fuel = Cheap Synthetic

I'm trying to work out why Synthetic has exploded onto the scene so much cheaper the way it has?

Has Fastmakets or Benchmark already covered this correlation ?

Anybody?

Too serios for the bar, but.. lets have the discussion anyway as its mostly speculation.

I was mulling this question in my head the last days and I cant really answer it. I dont think its graphite alone, its the entire battery materials sector. Talga is just one of the casulties. Not sure why exactly spot prices are so low though. Also, this is more or less conjecture on my part, I have no idea how to even check spot prices of this, I just heard it in a podcast the other day.

Recharge Dec23 (Lithium, EV Sales, Capacity postponements, Battery prices) | Recharge by Battery Materials Review

In December's Recharge, co-presenters Matt Fernley (Battery Materials Review) and Cormac O'Laoire (Electrios Energy) discuss all the month's key developments in batteries and battery materials. This month's key topics include: a recap of this year's lithium call - what went right, what went...

batterymaterialsreview.podbean.com

Assuming this is true, question is why. Russia and energy to china might have something to do with it.. but I would suspect a different reason. China might artificially push down the prices. Put yourself in their shoes. They are sitting on the battery industry of the future. Of course they will try to leverage that. And one way to do that is prevent the western world to develop their own expertise and manufacturing capability by making it economically unattractive. Its not a stupid thing to do. If they dominate the manufacturing, not only of batteries but source materials, no one else learns how to do that in the first place. Then this gives China power.

Add to that the fact that credit rating is much higher now than the last 10 years. Its for many people not financially opportune to make a big investment.. like a new EV. Which puts pressure on demand of batteries. If the euphoric of 2 years ago would continue today, it would look very different in the battery raw materials sector. That is something I certainly did not expect and personally, I did not account makro trends to have such a big impact on the whole sector. But apparently it does.

And then there is the fact that western car manufacturers hate EVs. And hate develop them. And are very very bad at designing and producing them to scale. Except Tesla. And Tesla is under fire from the press on each corner, not least due to Elons public appearance. he is very busy making enemies everywhere and that translates to Tesla being singled out for bad news wherever you look. Which ultimately hinders their growth. At least for me, its socially impossible to own a Tesla car, no matter how much I might like to have one. I am not the only one. So even if I were able to pay for one, I dont think I have the option.

For synthetic, its capacity was scaled massively, which is way easier and faster than natural, especially in Europe, but also much more energy hungry than natural graphite, but it was scaled beyond demand at moment. Together with the down trend above, makes it seemingly abundant. The west failed to soak up the demand due to garbage EVs, high interest rates and china has motivation to flood the world in order to prevent competition. I believe this will change sooner or later, but Talga has to play its cards extremely well at moment to make the most of the situation. The fact that they are strangled by the couts doesnt help of course.

Once we have permission, I dont think this will break the down trend. The stock price will re-rate to whatever will be written in the offtake agreements and financial agreements for building the mine. I dont think the market will have a strong reaction to the courts decision if its positive for us. It might have a strong negative impact on allowing the appeals to be heard. I dont believe the shorts have a material impact on the share price. They might even increase when the share price rises, but again, I dont think they will move the stock one way or another.

 

[JNRB]

Too serios for the bar, but.. lets have the discussion anyway as its mostly speculation.

I was mulling this question in my head the last days and I cant really answer it. I dont think its graphite alone, its the entire battery materials sector. Talga is just one of the casulties. Not sure why exactly spot prices are so low though. Also, this is more or less conjecture on my part, I have no idea how to even check spot prices of this, I just heard it in a podcast the other day.

Recharge Dec23 (Lithium, EV Sales, Capacity postponements, Battery prices) | Recharge by Battery Materials Review

In December's Recharge, co-presenters Matt Fernley (Battery Materials Review) and Cormac O'Laoire (Electrios Energy) discuss all the month's key developments in batteries and battery materials. This month's key topics include: a recap of this year's lithium call - what went right, what went...

batterymaterialsreview.podbean.com

Assuming this is true, question is why. Russia and energy to china might have something to do with it.. but I would suspect a different reason. China might artificially push down the prices. Put yourself in their shoes. They are sitting on the battery industry of the future. Of course they will try to leverage that. And one way to do that is prevent the western world to develop their own expertise and manufacturing capability by making it economically unattractive. Its not a stupid thing to do. If they dominate the manufacturing, not only of batteries but source materials, no one else learns how to do that in the first place. Then this gives China power.

Add to that the fact that credit rating is much higher now than the last 10 years. Its for many people not financially opportune to make a big investment.. like a new EV. Which puts pressure on demand of batteries. If the euphoric of 2 years ago would continue today, it would look very different in the battery raw materials sector. That is something I certainly did not expect and personally, I did not account makro trends to have such a big impact on the whole sector. But apparently it does.

And then there is the fact that western car manufacturers hate EVs. And hate develop them. And are very very bad at designing and producing them to scale. Except Tesla. And Tesla is under fire from the press on each corner, not least due to Elons public appearance. he is very busy making enemies everywhere and that translates to Tesla being singled out for bad news wherever you look. Which ultimately hinders their growth. At least for me, its socially impossible to own a Tesla car, no matter how much I might like to have one. I am not the only one. So even if I were able to pay for one, I dont think I have the option.

For synthetic, its capacity was scaled massively, which is way easier and faster than natural, especially in Europe, but also much more energy hungry than natural graphite, but it was scaled beyond demand at moment. Together with the down trend above, makes it seemingly abundant. The west failed to soak up the demand due to garbage EVs, high interest rates and china has motivation to flood the world in order to prevent competition. I believe this will change sooner or later, but Talga has to play its cards extremely well at moment to make the most of the situation. The fact that they are strangled by the couts doesnt help of course.

Once we have permission, I dont think this will break the down trend. The stock price will re-rate to whatever will be written in the offtake agreements and financial agreements for building the mine. I dont think the market will have a strong reaction to the courts decision if its positive for us. It might have a strong negative impact on allowing the appeals to be heard. I dont believe the shorts have a material impact on the share price. They might even increase when the share price rises, but again, I dont think they will move the stock one way or another.

Yep, this is China's strategy 100%.
Things to remember though:

Chinese domination of european EV market doesn't mean exclusivity - there will still be European manufacturers. Europe without any car manufacturing would be a disaster that they simply won't allow to happen.

Chinese EV domination doesn't mean anodes made exclusively in China. We've already seen Chinese companies taking steps to set up battery plants in EU, and especially once things like Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism kick in, this may even extend to vehicle plants. EV domination comes with multiple control levers and China doesn't want the EU to have easy ways to lock them out.

As you said, the big negative for us right now is the part of their strategy that involves crushing prices to try and prevent anyone else from developing anything at all related to EVs. But ultimately there will still be a huge demand for batteries made in EU with EU supply chain, even if that's for companies that are further up the chain owned by China.

I hope the EU gets their shit together, not least of all because I live here. But the Chinese are also fickle and unreliable partners. Just look at all their bullshit tariff on Australia because 'their feelings were hurt ' or the way they continue to exploit countries like DRC.

We will see, but one way or another I'm still confident EVs are gonna take over and there's gonna be huge demand for our anode products.

 

[Semmel]

Today, the spread on the German market was 18%. I am not following this religiously, but this is unusually high. You could sell shares for 0.39€ while buying was for 0.458 just before close of business around 10pm. Might be because it's Friday, but not sure. Will check again next week.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

 

[Vigdorian]

One way ticket to losing money with this stock…
Is there an end in sight for this court case - I’m losing faith in the Swedish system.
Why would any company or more correctly why would any investors support an infant company at the start of the curve regardless of the new incoming legislation that is supposed to make the process simpler and more efficient … I’ll refrain from pre judging but in the interim I can’t help but be pessimistic … rant over …

 

[cosors]

What can I say? I have nothing new to say. So I mostly keep quiet and deal with the practical challenges while we wait.
I imagine that our case is not yet in progress or if then for a short while and that time is not passing yawningly slowly, going through every single point of the antis. The antis or climate deniers have been told not to appeal to the Supreme Court. And I assume they were advised not to for lack of good reason and perhaps also because the Supreme Court, like the others, has more than enough better things to do anyway. They did it anyway because it costs nothing and is therefore always worth a try and at least keeps the courts busy. Here in Germany, the courts are literally flooded with cases of such antis, activists and environmental associations and some of them even block the courts. But that is the other issue that we know enough about and which this movement and many voters prefer to turn a blind eye to and withdraw into their bubble.
So I can imagine that our case will be dealt with relatively quickly once it's our turn. So it's a question of whether our position is at the top of the pile and in the order or only close to it. I also think that on the side of the supreme court, every case is public. Therefore, the date should be announced beforehand, I think.
However, I can't help but be drawn away from the SP which, in these times and especially on the ASX for start-ups, is perhaps the most inappropriate indicator for assessing the fortunes of a company.

I have just read an article that deals with the practical challenges in the municipality of Kiruna. At first, everything seemed crazy and the challenges too great. And there were also hopes that were not fulfilled e.g. for the same geopolitical reasons that affect us and have e.g. an impact on things like the risk assessment for real estate up there. However, initially hesitant and skeptical in the face of all these challenges, confidence now seems to be prevailing. And not without reason. Because the alternative is not possible - giving up and collectively failing as a society. In my estimation the next few years will see a drift in societies here in Europe, but probably also elsewhere. Ways will be found around the blockades of climate deniers and antis, who at the same time are loudly calling for more climate protection. The behavior is so absurd that the EU has already decided on new rules and the nation states will act or are already doing so. In just a few years, those who are shouting the loudest in this transition will no longer be the ones in the middle and moving or blocking the most. That's my tip or assumption.
So just general words from me. On the ASX the SP of start-ups is not an indication of a company's fortunes. Rather for the unscrupulous and unbridled greed for profit of a few. What points downwards for us points the other way for them.

 

[cosors]

From the German press about Vittangi.

"Record cold in Sweden
The shivering in pictures
The far north of Europe started the new year with freezing temperatures. In Sweden, the thermometer read below minus 40 degrees Celsius in some places. See the photos of the freezing cold here.
03.01.2024"

and two more pictures from Finland

Rekordkälte in Schweden: Das Bibbern in Bildern

Der hohe Norden Europas ist mit eisigen Temperaturen ins neue Jahr gestartet. In Schweden zeigte das Thermometer zum Teil unter minus 40 Grad Celsius an. Sehen Sie hier die Fotos zur klirrenden Kälte.

www.spiegel.de

 

[BlackBeak]

I should have read here first, you pretty much feel the same thing, there's no games being played and we're still just waiting our turn.

What can I say? I have nothing new to say. So I mostly keep quiet and deal with the practical challenges while we wait.
I imagine that our case is not yet in progress or if then for a short while and that time is not passing yawningly slowly, going through every single point of the antis. The antis or climate deniers have been told not to appeal to the Supreme Court. And I assume they were advised not to for lack of good reason and perhaps also because the Supreme Court, like the others, has more than enough better things to do anyway. They did it anyway because it costs nothing and is therefore always worth a try and at least keeps the courts busy. Here in Germany, the courts are literally flooded with cases of such antis, activists and environmental associations and some of them even block the courts. But that is the other issue that we know enough about and which this movement and many voters prefer to turn a blind eye to and withdraw into their bubble.
So I can imagine that our case will be dealt with relatively quickly once it's our turn. So it's a question of whether our position is at the top of the pile and in the order or only close to it. I also think that on the side of the supreme court, every case is public. Therefore, the date should be announced beforehand, I think.
However, I can't help but be drawn away from the SP which, in these times and especially on the ASX for start-ups, is perhaps the most inappropriate indicator for assessing the fortunes of a company.

I have just read an article that deals with the practical challenges in the municipality of Kiruna. At first, everything seemed crazy and the challenges too great. And there were also hopes that were not fulfilled e.g. for the same geopolitical reasons that affect us and have e.g. an impact on things like the risk assessment for real estate up there. However, initially hesitant and skeptical in the face of all these challenges, confidence now seems to be prevailing. And not without reason. Because the alternative is not possible - giving up and collectively failing as a society. In my estimation the next few years will see a drift in societies here in Europe, but probably also elsewhere. Ways will be found around the blockades of climate deniers and antis, who at the same time are loudly calling for more climate protection. The behavior is so absurd that the EU has already decided on new rules and the nation states will act or are already doing so. In just a few years, those who are shouting the loudest in this transition will no longer be the ones in the middle and moving or blocking the most. That's my tip or assumption.
So just general words from me. On the ASX the SP of start-ups is not an indication of a company's fortunes. Rather for the unscrupulous and unbridled greed for profit of a few. What points downwards for us points the other way for them.

 

[cosors]

I should have read here first, you pretty much feel the same thing, there's no games being played and we're still just waiting our turn.

That's what I suspect. Jurisprudence, as a bureaucratic body, cannot be changed quickly. And we're at the last boss level here. If they analyze the reasons of the antis they might think to themselves - and for that you keep us from far more important issues! and proceed quickly.
At least I hope so.

 

[Semmel]

Talga can't do much except waiting for the courts at moment, true. But at moment the entire company is worth roughly 1 year of revenue of Talnode-C. Let that sink in. A customer could buy all of Talga for the same price it would take them to buy 1 year of product. Of course you can't just buy shares without distorting the share price massively.. and so this is a stupid way to look at things, but hey, we are in the bar after all! And we all are clowns for being here. Damn it's painful at moment. I need a drink.

 

[Howyagoin]

Does anyone know when construction of the refinery is estimated to be completed?

 

[teilenswert]

https://x.com/SwedeninEU/status/1747316871798341846?s=20

If my memory serves me right, you live in the upper half of Germany. Perhaps you can take a "short" trip to Sweden on Friday and have a word with Ursula and Ulf - in the event of a positive decision by Carnival, you are welcome to extend them a personal invitation to the Talga Bar.

 

[cosors]

https://x.com/SwedeninEU/status/1747316871798341846?s=20

If my memory serves me right, you live in the upper half of Germany. Perhaps you can take a "short" trip to Sweden on Friday and have a word with Ursula and Ulf - in the event of a positive decision by Carnival, you are welcome to extend them a personal invitation to the Talga Bar.

Here in Cologne everything is in full preparation for carnival and soon real politics will completely fade into the background and then the politicians of my city will completely hand over power to the fools at the beginning of February. Celebrities have just driven past me, the prince and princess of the fools.
And in keeping with carnival, Stora Enso is also joining in up on the north.)

 

[cosors]

All noise while we wait. Nothing more.

 

[cosors]

Ok ... ... ... maybe someone will pass this on?

"Furthermore, the administrator highlights the Chinese company Putailai, which has been in bad weather recently as the company is to build a factory for Northvolt in Torsboda outside Timrå. According to information, Putailai has deliberately concealed the fact that it has a subsidiary in a region of China where a genocide is taking place, which is why, among other things, the United States has banned all trade in Chinese goods from the region.
The manager instead highlights a number of companies in the portfolio that produce the same type of battery material, but which are instead based on natural graphite, which creates much less carbon dioxide emissions. These companies are Nextsource Materials, Northern Graphite, Noveau Monde Graphite and Talga."

TLG Discussion 2022

Your first statement is true for blended natural graphite from China which comes from many different mines, which can be quite inconsistent. The trick is to make it stable with synthetic as the synthetic graphite is very consistent. So yes, you are sort of correct. Talgas product acts and is...

thestockexchange.com.au

 

[Token35]

Since we're in the bar and the TLG silence is deafening... thought I'd chat about anything else that's looking like some strong potential in the future electrification space.

My general thesis has been to look at miners or tech in this space as we make the generational shift away from fossil fuels in general.

I've been keeping an eye on CPV and looks like things are lining up for those guys... potentially a BIG market.

Anyway, just chit-chat while we wait for more TLG news

 

[Semmel]

Since we're in the bar and the TLG silence is deafening... thought I'd chat about anything else that's looking like some strong potential in the future electrification space.

My general thesis has been to look at miners or tech in this space as we make the generational shift away from fossil fuels in general.

I've been keeping an eye on CPV and looks like things are lining up for those guys... potentially a BIG market.

Anyway, just chit-chat while we wait for more TLG news

All battery tech is a potentially big market .. what is special about cpv (nickel hydrogen I believe?) That it would be good? Not very familiar with that stuff..

 

[Token35]

All battery tech is a potentially big market .. what is special about cpv (nickel hydrogen I believe?) That it would be good? Not very familiar with that stuff..

CPV asx ticker... ClearVue. I was referring to the company, sorry for any confusion. Window technology that might be interesting if some deals work out.