The Talga Bar

[teilenswert]

https://hotcrapper.com.au/threads/tlg-chart.4136626/page-2535?post_id=61328766

https://hotcrapper.com.au/threads/t...projections.5755811/page-144?post_id=55076681

https://hotcrapper.com.au/threads/talgas-current-npv.6408808/?post_id=57410689

 

[cosors]

I made this once upon a time. You can make a copy and enter your own assumptions... Also, my timeline was too optimistic back then.

https://docs.google. com/spreadsheets/d/1WClCjsq1nVS74nMJS02HCqys-Z5eeE42DE0hh2ojgA0/

You need to puzzle together the two parts of the url. If I post it whole, TSE will display the sheet like this:

Sometimes I have luck
Thank you very much! I apologise for not taking the topic seriously. I was too busy with my local drills and rabbit holes. Now we can enter the latest figures. Ingenious!

 

[Semmel]

I bare similar scars WTM.

Having held TLG for many years I've watched the risks come and go whilst others are very much mitigated. MT is a bit of a risk but feel MP is slotting in very nicely as our 2IC.

I'm very excited to watch it all play out but do see a hostile as our main risk. I'm a lay man in this space but so assume that once we have the 3 horseman of the apocalypse addressed, a boss who clearly hates dilution and wants to stay boss, plus strategic partners and Governments as stakeholders with vested interesrs, any takeover attempt would be difficult and valuations would need to be min 10X sp.
Anyone educated here to ensure my thinking is on track?

I'm not much of a poster so just quickly...
COSORS, I'm very grateful for all your research and generous contributions! Thank you. Safe to say your drinks will be on all of us. But with your holdings I think you'll be fine regardless. Cheers!

Welcome to TSE, DAH. If you dont mind me asking, what does your acronym stand for?

I have a similar threat scenario for Talga as you. A hostile takeover is for sure one of the scenarios I am affraid of. I dont think MT or the board would want to sell. My personal price at moment is 20 Euros, or ~30 AUD. I expect this valuation after the current Niska expansion (that I dont think is gonna happen btw. I think Talga will make a new scoping study with >300ktpa instead of 100ktpa Talnode-C to compress the timeline). The other threat scenario is, that we are too slow due to government requirements. I dont think Sweden refuses to give us permits in any way. But a very real scenario is delays upon delays, as we experience now. I said both things since about 1 year (I started investing in Talga August 2020).

But all this is maybe a topic for a new thead, TLG valuation. We have a thread for Talga NPV, but it has an unfortunate title as it names April 2022 specifically as an update. Maybe we should start a new thread specifically for TLG valuation models. What do you think, is this something we need? Also, its not necessary that my name is in front of each thread here. Anyone is welcome to make a thread like this Maybe @teilenswert or @Affenhorst would be the right person to do so.

 

[cosors]

Welcome to TSE, DAH. If you dont mind me asking, what does your acronym stand for?

I have a similar threat scenario for Talga as you. A hostile takeover is for sure one of the scenarios I am affraid of. I dont think MT or the board would want to sell. My personal price at moment is 20 Euros, or ~30 AUD. I expect this valuation after the current Niska expansion (that I dont think is gonna happen btw. I think Talga will make a new scoping study with >300ktpa instead of 100ktpa Talnode-C to compress the timeline). The other threat scenario is, that we are too slow due to government requirements. I dont think Sweden refuses to give us permits in any way. But a very real scenario is delays upon delays, as we experience now. I said both things since about 1 year (I started investing in Talga August 2020).

But all this is maybe a topic for a new thead, TLG valuation. We have a thread for Talga NPV, but it has an unfortunate title as it names April 2022 specifically as an update. Maybe we should start a new thread specifically for TLG valuation models. What do you think, is this something we need? Also, its not necessary that my name is in front of each thread here. Anyone is welcome to make a thread like this Maybe @teilenswert or @Affenhorst would be the right person to do so.

Great idea! That's what I call initiative. I am curious even if I can not contribute much, but I will make an effort and follow closely. @Affenhorst do you like to open the new thread with your value model sheet? I have already started to deal a little with it but I need more time than you others.

 

[cosors]

Glencore might have another shot. Don't forget the Vanadium (for TLG as well)

Glencore kicks off $2bn takeover race for Syrah Resources

Swiss mining giant Glencore is understood to have made an informal approach to Syrah Resources that could value the graphite and vanadium junior at up to $2 billion.

www.smh.com.au

Thanks for the passive tip with this newspaper. I had previously searched what was going on again yesterday and why the mood was so bad. I had not found anything. Then when I had read the article I looked at the page more closely and found right away what I was looking for.

I have a question that is probably not so easy to answer. I have noticed over the last few years how many have been in one stock or another for ages. On the other hand, I had looked a little closer at your type of investment and also read something about the much mentioned super. Your way of investing is very different from ours. A sign why so many Germans hold or trade Australian shares. You have a startup culture compared to us.

Now my question: How do you come up with ideas and where do you find info about companies that are just going to the ASX. My thought is to be there from the beginning with an investment and then look back many years later and be happy about many baggers How do you get the tips or info to join a company very early when it is only 20m big? Grateful to read your tips where.

 

[Semmel]

Thanks for the passive tip with this newspaper. I had previously searched what was going on again yesterday and why the mood was so bad. I had not found anything. Then when I had read the article I looked at the page more closely and found right away what I was looking for.

I have a question that is probably not so easy to answer. I have noticed over the last few years how many have been in one stock or another for ages. On the other hand, I had looked a little closer at your type of investment and also read something about the much mentioned super. Your way of investing is very different from ours. A sign why so many Germans hold or trade Australian shares. You have a startup culture compared to us.

Now my question: How do you come up with ideas and where do you find info about companies that are just going to the ASX. My thought is to be there from the beginning with an investment and then look back many years later and be happy about many baggers How do you get the tips or info to join a company very early when it is only 20m big? Grateful to read your tips where.

There is a reddit community dedicated to penny stocks:

Welcome to /r/pennystocks

A place to lose money with friends and likewise degenerates. The posts and advice here should be taken with caution, this is not financial advice.

old.reddit.com

 

[cosors]

There is a reddit community dedicated to penny stocks:

Welcome to /r/pennystocks

A place to lose money with friends and likewise degenerates. The posts and advice here should be taken with caution, this is not financial advice.

old.reddit.com

The description sounds like a concept I'm just not that fit with Reddit. Let's see if this is something.

 

[Semmel]

I didn't go there much, i just know they exist. I bet the stocks they cover either are heavily manipulated or are covered after they run up. I wouldn't touch a stock they discuss with a 10 foot pole. But i guess you can play the lottery if you want

 

[ACinEur]

I hope you are right. Four times in my life I have conducted a lot of research on potential investments then bought in knowing the SP potential only to have that potential snatched away by opportunistic takeovers.

It really annoys when that happens. You might make a few dollars but you are still left with an empty feeling afterwards

I currently hold Oz Minerals.......................LOL....................here we go again

Arrrr Oz …. You and me both ….

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Now my question: How do you come up with ideas and where do you find info about companies that are just going to the ASX. My thought is to be there from the beginning with an investment and then look back many years later and be happy about many baggers How do you get the tips or info to join a company very early when it is only 20m big? Grateful to read your tips where.

It's not What you know it's Who you know.............

I have a University friend who works for a brokerage here in Sydney called Ord Minnett. He gives me a few tips from time to time maybe 3 tips per year but they are always insights he has gained from other brokerages.

I also have 2 university friends who work for Macquarie Bank. Whilst they are no longer in the equities area they do hear a few things from time to time........just rumours going on in the market place.

All these bankers and brokers get together every Friday night at the various bars near the harbour and always exchange rumours good and bad before they get smashed on the latest craft beer or cocktail

As far as getting in on an Initial Public Offering IPO you really need to receive an invite from your broker which would mean you really need to invest a lot of money each year. Then they "look after you".

Most of my money is in real estate so I'm not in that league.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I have a question that is probably not so easy to answer. I have noticed over the last few years how many have been in one stock or another for ages. On the other hand, I had looked a little closer at your type of investment and also read something about the much mentioned super. Your way of investing is very different from ours. A sign why so many Germans hold or trade Australian shares. You have a startup culture compared to us.

As to how Super(annuation) actually has an impact on share ownership here it’s a bit more complicated.

A lot of self employed choose not to have Super. Not all but some .

However it is compulsory if you are an employee. If you are an employee your employer must pay a minimum of 10.5% of your gross salary (i.e. before tax) every quarter into the Superfund you have chosen.

Overwhelmingly this would generally be a Superfund managed by a major financial institution which carries a licence and is strictly regulated by the federal government body called APRA.

Within the fund you have chosen are generally 3 asset classes of Cash (usually government bonds), Balanced Growth (usually commercial property, plus a bit of Cash plus Shares) or Aggressive (usually commercial property, plus a bit of Cash plus Australian and Overseas Shares). You could put a bit of money into all 3 if you wish plus some give you the option to use a limited % of your funds to invest directly into certain shares (they stipulate who) which they hold in your fund. Talga being speculative would unlikely to be an option.

Then there are people like me who cannot stand the thought of giving control of my funds to a pimple faced 20 something with a $200 per week cocaine habit who has a girlfriend with cosmetically altered lips that resemble the Hindenburg who both wake up around 1pm on a Saturday wondering what happened last night.

So I have a Self Managed Super Fund where my money accumulates (I am self employed). I can pretty much invest in any shares I wish, or property, or antiques, works of art, rare coins, stamps etc.

The antiques,art, coins, stamps cannot be in my custody they must be held by a third party. So I cant decorate my house with them.

So my Super Fund is also overseen by APRA and I must have it audited each year plus lodge an income tax return for it and keep all its documentation upto date. Many people think they need to pay $5,000 per annum to their accountants to do this. They don’t do any research to do it cheaper

I get a company based in Melbourne to do everything online and pay around $900 pa as they appear to outsource a lot of the data collation overseas. I’m satisfied with their cyber security and have never heard of any problems with this.

So I have a broker account (CommSec) and a bank account that they monitor throughout the year to ensure I’m not doing anything illegal (like investing in overseas shares). Its only illegal because super funds are not recognised as legal entities in other jurisdictions. Except for the Big Boys (see above) that is

So each year they send me a checklist of transactions they might not be able to identify and I “fill in the blanks”. So that takes care of my audit, tax return and any other documents that need to be altered or generated

So that’s it for $900 per year I’m happy

 

[DAH]

Welcome to TSE, DAH. If you dont mind me asking, what does your acronym stand for?

I have a similar threat scenario for Talga as you. A hostile takeover is for sure one of the scenarios I am affraid of. I dont think MT or the board would want to sell. My personal price at moment is 20 Euros, or ~30 AUD. I expect this valuation after the current Niska expansion (that I dont think is gonna happen btw. I think Talga will make a new scoping study with >300ktpa instead of 100ktpa Talnode-C to compress the timeline). The other threat scenario is, that we are too slow due to government requirements. I dont think Sweden refuses to give us permits in any way. But a very real scenario is delays upon delays, as we experience now. I said both things since about 1 year (I started investing in Talga August 2020).

But all this is maybe a topic for a new thead, TLG valuation. We have a thread for Talga NPV, but it has an unfortunate title as it names April 2022 specifically as an update. Maybe we should start a new thread specifically for TLG valuation models. What do you think, is this something we need? Also, its not necessary that my name is in front of each thread here. Anyone is welcome to make a thread like this Maybe @teilenswert or @Affenhorst would be the right person to do so.

Hi Semmel,

My acronym or user name is very unimaginative, simply being my initials. It's a legacy from around 15 years ago when I stumbled across HC and wanted to check it out, so I quickly entered my initials as I probably figured they were easy to remember. My brain is overloaded with work and family these days so when you kindly set up TSE I simply carried this across...

I've been in TLG for not far off 10 years and it has been a very lonely journey at times. Many mates took a position but would always run as their focus was on the SP rather than the business itself. At the same time I've found myself slowly accumulating to the point I have what you could argue is a one stock portfolio. Yourself and other great contributors on here and HC (no not Beach!) are a breath of fresh air as I very much value the insightful contributions, but also selfishly love to hear how bullish many of you are. I spend time trying to find chinks in the TLG armour and there are few that concern me.

The takeover is one concern as I don't know enough. I also haven't hung around this long to have a few investment bankers come and take away what I feel is the best small cap stock I have come across. Mgt, the business itself and the macro environment blow me away! And I would never have gotten the holding I have without someone like MT in charge. He's a one of a kind CEO.

If you get bored, there's a small cap here in Oz called Genex (GNX) who have just had a takeover offer you can look at (I don't know the business at all). It's common following market downturns that the vultures start to circle and make offers that at face value sound reasonable, often large premiums on 90 day VWAP, but rarely reflect future value. Anyway, the board of this particular stock have decided the offer, being a 92% premium or so of 90 VWAP is in shareholder best interests. There is no way MT or the board would support something like this, but where I am unsure is what sort of obligation/duty is there on directors in this instance. If a consortium offered to by all TLG shares at $5, that's a 300%+ premium on the current SP (is this best interests?). But no doubt we all see that as way under future value but can MT and board simply reject it or do they need to engage in the offer and put it to us. This is all rhetorical but at the same time I'd love to hear from anyone more educated than I on this... Perhaps ASX rules or Corps Act define best interests.

At the end of the day it doesn't change my conviction and we would all do well regardless. I'm hopeful we might get lucky and a long term offtake drops soon that will also connect the customer with the 40% project funding we need (hoping NV/VW). MT has stated previously this was being looked at and with Mitsui appearing keen for longer term company equity, I hope this plays out as it will certainly help get the SP moving and get us more on the radar. Permits are not an if for me, just when... (zzz's).

Cheers.

 

[cosors]

It's not What you know it's Who you know.............

I have a University friend who works for a brokerage here in Sydney called Ord Minnett. He gives me a few tips from time to time maybe 3 tips per year but they are always insights he has gained from other brokerages.

I also have 2 university friends who work for Macquarie Bank. Whilst they are no longer in the equities area they do hear a few things from time to time........just rumours going on in the market place.

All these bankers and brokers get together every Friday night at the various bars near the harbour and always exchange rumours good and bad before they get smashed on the latest craft beer or cocktail

As far as getting in on an Initial Public Offering IPO you really need to receive an invite from your broker which would mean you really need to invest a lot of money each year. Then they "look after you".

Most of my money is in real estate so I'm not in that league.

This is interesting and shows how different our cultures are. For you it can be normal to find someone to talk about trading if you want to.

With us, this is a rarity and if it is almost exclusively about foreign stocks, the German ones are almost all boring. Mostly USA or Australia, rarely Asia and even more rarely Germany. Perhaps this is due to the .com crisis that hit us hard. Simply everything was made into shares and then hyped.

With the new generations and the young people this is changing a bit. They have grown up with the fast media, are risk prepared and more aware and are used to something like cryptos. But they have grown up knowing that their pension is not safe and that they have to take care of it themselves.

In contrast, the older generations, for whom everything should be very safe, dutifully put their money in the savings account. They're also much more frugal and consumption-conscious. They know the war or post-war times.

For many others who grew up between these two generations, investment is rather disreputable because it is capitalistic. You don't do that on principle, rather left or alternative attitude. For money you have to work otherwise it is worth nothing. They don't see that you open up opportunities. Capitalism is for most here synonymous with bad.

Today, some politicians want people to invest more in the stock markets. But they have no concept. As mentioned, there is also no startup culture here. They are financed exclusively privately by investors outside the stock market. That is a pity.
Maybe this will change someday and it will be more like your culture and normal that we talk about investments because our pension depends on it.

 

[Affenhorst]

Great idea! That's what I call initiative. I am curious even if I can not contribute much, but I will make an effort and follow closely. @Affenhorst do you like to open the new thread with your value model sheet? I have already started to deal a little with it but I need more time than you others.

I'm open to it. I would like to update the model first. It may take a couple of days until I find the time...

 

[cosors]

As to how Super(annuation) actually has an impact on share ownership here it’s a bit more complicated.

A lot of self employed choose not to have Super. Not all but some .

However it is compulsory if you are an employee. If you are an employee your employer must pay a minimum of 10.5% of your gross salary (i.e. before tax) every quarter into the Superfund you have chosen.

Overwhelmingly this would generally be a Superfund managed by a major financial institution which carries a licence and is strictly regulated by the federal government body called APRA.

Within the fund you have chosen are generally 3 asset classes of Cash (usually government bonds), Balanced Growth (usually commercial property, plus a bit of Cash plus Shares) or Aggressive (usually commercial property, plus a bit of Cash plus Australian and Overseas Shares). You could put a bit of money into all 3 if you wish plus some give you the option to use a limited % of your funds to invest directly into certain shares (they stipulate who) which they hold in your fund. Talga being speculative would unlikely to be an option.

Then there are people like me who cannot stand the thought of giving control of my funds to a pimple faced 20 something with a $200 per week cocaine habit who has a girlfriend with cosmetically altered lips that resemble the Hindenburg who both wake up around 1pm on a Saturday wondering what happened last night.

So I have a Self Managed Super Fund where my money accumulates (I am self employed). I can pretty much invest in any shares I wish, or property, or antiques, works of art, rare coins, stamps etc.

The antiques,art, coins, stamps cannot be in my custody they must be held by a third party. So I cant decorate my house with them.

So my Super Fund is also overseen by APRA and I must have it audited each year plus lodge an income tax return for it and keep all its documentation upto date. Many people think they need to pay $5,000 per annum to their accountants to do this. They don’t do any research to do it cheaper

I get a company based in Melbourne to do everything online and pay around $900 pa as they appear to outsource a lot of the data collation overseas. I’m satisfied with their cyber security and have never heard of any problems with this.

So I have a broker account (CommSec) and a bank account that they monitor throughout the year to ensure I’m not doing anything illegal (like investing in overseas shares). Its only illegal because super funds are not recognised as legal entities in other jurisdictions. Except for the Big Boys (see above) that is

So each year they send me a checklist of transactions they might not be able to identify and I “fill in the blanks”. So that takes care of my audit, tax return and any other documents that need to be altered or generated

So that’s it for $900 per year I’m happy

Wow - you saw my question where there was none because I forgot to ask it and you answered it exactly. Thank you very much!
This is very interesting. Most of what I could answer is in my other reply to your other post. I'm just noticing that I feel the same way you do. Why should I trust someone else with my money when I can take responsibility for it myself. I even stay away from funds. I have no influence on how they make decisions and do their research.

I have one more question here so it doesn't overlap with the two answers. Is there any kind of disreputable magazine or page that deals with startups or IPOs. I don't want to encourage a recommendation that I'm sure you don't have. But maybe you know a name.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

This is interesting and shows how different our cultures are. For you it can be normal to find someone to talk about trading if you want to.

It's probably the "normal" for me as I have a finance background (Chartered Accountant) so all of my university friends, who 40 years later I still hang out with, also take an interest in the Market

There are plenty of people here who take no interest in the Market which is why they blindly handover their money to the pimple faced 20 something with a $200 per week cocaine habit who has a girlfriend with cosmetically altered lips that resemble the Hindenburg who both wake up around 1pm on a Saturday wondering what happened last night.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Wow - you saw my question where there was none because I forgot to ask it and you answered it exactly. Thank you very much!
This is very interesting. Most of what I could answer is in my other reply to your other post. I'm just noticing that I feel the same way you do. Why should I trust someone else with my money when I can take responsibility for it myself. I even stay away from funds. I have no influence on how they make decisions and do their research.

I have one more question here so it doesn't overlap with the two answers. Is there any kind of disreputable magazine or page that deals with startups or IPOs. I don't want to encourage a recommendation that I'm sure you don't have. But maybe you know a name.

You could try this but I have no idea if they are any good.

IPO Review – Pre IPO Access

www.ipo-review.com

 

[cosors]

You could try this but I have no idea if they are any good.

IPO Review – Pre IPO Access

www.ipo-review.com

Thanks. The page is blocked maybe only for Australians. I'll try later with a VPN.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Try this

Upcoming IPOs

Small Caps’ upcoming IPOs page offers investors a preview of companies that are currently planning to list on the ASX (Australian Stock Exchange).

smallcaps.com.au

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Thanks. The page is blocked maybe only for Australians. I'll try later with a VPN.

Try this

Upcoming IPOs

Small Caps’ upcoming IPOs page offers investors a preview of companies that are currently planning to list on the ASX (Australian Stock Exchange).

smallcaps.com.au