TLG Discussion 2022

[WheresTheMonkey]

IF EVERYONE PLACES THE TROLLS ON IGNORE IT WILL PISS IT OFF NO END.

TROLLS HATE BEING IGNORED

JUST CLICK ON IT'S AVATAR AND YOU WILL SEE AN "IGNORE" BUTTON ON THE BOTTOM LEFT OF THE POP UP WINDOW

 

[JoMo68]

I had wondered the same thing myself...

Although perhaps a bit too eloquent for pabs

 

[curiousmagpie]

IF EVERYONE PLACES THE TROLLS ON IGNORE IT WILL PISS IT OFF NO END.

TROLLS HATE BEING IGNORED

JUST CLICK ON IT'S AVATAR AND YOU WILL SEE AN "IGNORE" BUTTON ON THE BOTTOM LEFT OF THE POP UP WINDOW

yes really looking like I'm the one pissed off here! you got me!!

 

[cosors]

How many times over the life of my holding has someone posted about new battery technology which turns out to be crap ?????

Something like this?

LG sees battery breakthrough by 2028 that has eluded Tesla

At least it doesn't say next year as usual.

 

[BlackBeak]

Although perhaps a bit too eloquent for pabs

Agreed, I don't think it's pabs, because pabs would have gone on an unhinged tirade by now

 

[Diogenese]

The project NPV, capex and company market cap are all interrelated when analyzing the project viability for reasons that should be obvious.

I compared with other miners to be generous, because mining projects are typically lower risk than a combined mining + specialized industrial product project for reasons that should be obvious

You seem to think you did a thing here but just showed up how out of your depth you are and don’t even realise it

... and yet you hold?

If your imagined figures were to prove correct, today's prices do not necessarily control the prices in two years. Maybe Kiruna council is doing us a favour.

More to the point, as you acknowledge, Tagla is not just a mining company. It is a vertically integrated miner, refiner, and anode manufacturer in waiting. There is value adding in getting to the anode, especially when Talnode-Si is taken into account. I will say this only once (in case @Semmel is listening) - Talnode-Si can provide a substantial increase in battery capacity, which gives the vehicle manufacturer the option of trading off combinations of increased range and lighter weight/smaller volume. Range anxiety has been a drag on EV sales, so the increased capacity will provide a premium product.

The European Onion has laws imposing taxes on ungreen products, so, while China may be manipulating the price down now to squeeze out the competition, as they have done previously with rare earths for example, the carbon tax will mitigate that.

The other factor influencing the price is the drop off in EV sales against predictions, but that will also change as regulations bite, recharging points spread, and recharging times are reduced. In the 50's there were at least 2 petrol stations on the corner of major intersections.

In relation to the coating applications, I would think that there is a greater price premium for battery applications of graphene than as a paint or concrete additive. The market for battery grade graphene will be more than enough to absorb all the graphene Talga can deliver.

 

[curiousmagpie]

If your imagined figures were to prove correct, today's prices do not necessarily control the prices in two years. Maybe Kiruna council is doing us a favour.

what figures have I imagined?

 

[JNRB]

what figures have I imagined?

what figures have you substantiated?

 

[brewm0re]

yes really looking like I'm the one pissed off here! you

$0.55 GONE

MT margin call next

I’m not sure what’s more disappointing. Your lackluster performance for investing (& crystallizing your big losses) or your online behavior slinging these type of comments. Why taunt people trying to keep positive on a company that has so much promise to deliver, if (or rather, when) given the chance? It’s getting embarrassing now. I don’t doubt you tell kids Santa isn’t teal just to make yourself feel better knowing you’re right. Please bud, let’s keep TSE classy and jump over the whitehaven.

 

[curiousmagpie]

what figures have you substantiated?

The majority of the substantiation is done by the company with the Vittangi DFS sensitivity analysis. I added some lines in red because the current anode price is literally off the charts (not in a good way)

That's US$350MM NPV PRE tax down from the headline figure in the study of $1,054MM.

today's anode high-end synthetic pricing (allegedly Tal-C is comparable in quality):

Natural graphite (Syrah realistic market pricing, the rest are from studies in 2021-22 that haven't been updated to today's prices):

HIGH OBSERVABLE SPOT PRICE NATURAL GRAPHITE AAM $8,000/t !!!!! In 2023 too. Things have only gone downhill since then.



If you can find some 2024 validation for pricing >US$10,000/t I'd love to see it

 

[Diogenese]

My assertion is that as it stands Vittangi won't get funded.

The DFS was based on anode sale price of US$12,312/t for a pre-tax NPV of US$1,054MM


View attachment 66295


If you look at the project sensitivities, a 25% drop in Tal-C price (US$9,384/t) gives a PRE-TAX NPV of about US$500M


View attachment 66296

As it stands US$9,000/t is very optimistic. $6,000-8,000/t (maybe).

So Vittangi post-tax NPV (which is what matters) is probably currently in the region of US$300MM. Capex is more than 2X that at around US$650MM

Projects with CAPEX > NPV typically don't get funded. Too much risk on the investment for the reward. Projects with CAPEX > 2X NPV absolutely do not get funded.

Find me one example in the 1000s of asx explorers and developers that have made it to producers where their initial project capex was 2X or more the NPV. ONE example and I will go away forever.

Vittangi will not get funded as it stands. How's that for a negative assertion?

My assertion is that as it stands Vittangi won't get funded.

The DFS was based on anode sale price of US$12,312/t for a pre-tax NPV of US$1,054MM


View attachment 66295


If you look at the project sensitivities, a 25% drop in Tal-C price (US$9,384/t) gives a PRE-TAX NPV of about US$500M


View attachment 66296

As it stands US$9,000/t is very optimistic. $6,000-8,000/t (maybe).

So Vittangi post-tax NPV (which is what matters) is probably currently in the region of US$300MM. Capex is more than 2X that at around US$650MM

Projects with CAPEX > NPV typically don't get funded. Too much risk on the investment for the reward. Projects with CAPEX > 2X NPV absolutely do not get funded.

Find me one example in the 1000s of asx explorers and developers that have made it to producers where their initial project capex was 2X or more the NPV. ONE example and I will go away forever.

Vittangi will not get funded as it stands. How's that for a negative assertion?

"As it stands US$9,000/t is very optimistic. $6,000-8,000/t (maybe)."

 

[curiousmagpie]

"As it stands US$9,000/t is very optimistic. $6,000-8,000/t (maybe)."

See sources above. Not imagined. Best publicly available 2024 data. Do you have any third party validation that contradicts it?

 

[cosors]

The European Onion...

Wonderful!

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

"As it stands US$9,000/t is very optimistic. $6,000-8,000/t (maybe)."

And this is exactly why we shouldn’t engage with this idiot. I had this argument months ago and he kept running down rabbit holes back then until even he realised his argument was demolished.

Syrah is not a valid comparison. They use an off the shelf Chinese mainland product to coat their anode. It’s used by most of their anode producers .

HE KNOWS THAT

Syrah does not have its own proprietary coating
He knows that yet he has now brought up the same argument again because he knows you probably don’t recall my argument with him

He’s a Troll

 

[JNRB]

The majority of the substantiation is done by the company with the Vittangi DFS sensitivity analysis. I added some lines in red because the current anode price is literally off the charts (not in a good way)

View attachment 66389
That's US$350MM NPV PRE tax down from the headline figure in the study of $1,054MM.

today's anode high-end synthetic pricing (allegedly Tal-C is comparable in quality):

View attachment 66391

Natural graphite (Syrah realistic market pricing, the rest are from studies in 2021-22 that haven't been updated to today's prices):

View attachment 66392



HIGH OBSERVABLE SPOT PRICE NATURAL GRAPHITE AAM $8,000/t !!!!! In 2023 too. Things have only gone downhill since then.



If you can find some 2024 validation for pricing >US$10,000/t I'd love to see it

Ok granted, you've substantiated that some AAM has been sold cheaply.

- Graphite Anode is not the same as other commodities like copper.
- General AAM material pricing is not the same as a customised material that's been fully qualified by end users
- Current contract price data doesn't factor in more recent/upcoming developments in regulations. Graphite anode specifically got a time extension in the US because China is so dominant. But it WILL kick in.
- To that point, investing is about taking a position on what you think the future will look like.

And the future for Talga is rosy.

 

[Semmel]

The majority of the substantiation is done by the company with the Vittangi DFS sensitivity analysis. I added some lines in red because the current anode price is literally off the charts (not in a good way)

View attachment 66389
That's US$350MM NPV PRE tax down from the headline figure in the study of $1,054MM.

today's anode high-end synthetic pricing (allegedly Tal-C is comparable in quality):

View attachment 66391

Natural graphite (Syrah realistic market pricing, the rest are from studies in 2021-22 that haven't been updated to today's prices):

View attachment 66392



HIGH OBSERVABLE SPOT PRICE NATURAL GRAPHITE AAM $8,000/t !!!!! In 2023 too. Things have only gone downhill since then.



If you can find some 2024 validation for pricing >US$10,000/t I'd love to see it

@curious, you are called a troll because your argument does not fit your actions. I am against bubbles as you know and I think its quite well to have counter arguments. However, you state that talga is dysfunctional and at the same time state you want to buy it after a CR or whaterver. Its only one of the two. Either you believe Talga has a fighting chance and is just overvalued or you think that Talga is going bust, then the current value or any future value is irrelevant and you should not hold it. Thats why people call you a troll and rightfully so in my opinion. So if you want to stop the talk about you being a troll, stop trolling.

However, I do like data and you show interesting plots here. I dont know how metal.com works, but it appears they are taking the in-china spot price for AAM in CNY and converting that to USD. Which is kind of ridiculous because one of the major selling points of Talga is that it is manufactured and sourced in Europe, not in china. They do have to recognize some sort of a decline in AAM price, but taking the value from inside china as a baseline is disenginious. Context matters a lot.

Where is your last plot from? We can discuss these things without doom and gloom talk as well. For instance, I think that Syrah mines the graphite, processes it and sends it to china for coating. So they specifically do not sell coated AAM. They sell shaped graphite, which is missing one of the value steps, hence not a good comparison.

 

[curiousmagpie]

I think that Syrah mines the graphite, processes it and sends it to china for coating. So they specifically do not sell coated AAM. They sell shaped graphite, which is missing one of the value steps, hence not a good comparison.

Syrah have an operating AAM plant in Louisiana

• Product: 18-micron coated purified spherical graphite

Vidalia Active Anode Material Facility

A globally significant vertically integrated natural graphite and battery anode company, supplying battery and industrial markets with high quality, environmentally differentiated and customer qualified products.

www.syrahresources.com.au

 

[Semmel]

Syrah have an operating AAM plant in Louisiana

• Product: 18-micron coated purified spherical graphite

Vidalia Active Anode Material Facility

A globally significant vertically integrated natural graphite and battery anode company, supplying battery and industrial markets with high quality, environmentally differentiated and customer qualified products.

www.syrahresources.com.au

Ok, thx for the correction. How about the other stuff though?

 

[cosors]

 

[cosors]

Please don't.
Far too much stage. Shall I tell you about HC? What about your experience.
WTM is absolutely right.
Thanks mate @WheresTheMonkey !