TLG Discussion 2022

[WheresTheMonkey]

I notice no one is addressing the actual point though? I'm using this as a sounding board that maybe my negative outlook is wrong and could be convinced by some good arguments that Talga is on the right track. I'm not sure if you're all just suffering from fatigue or something but no one is putting forward a good bull case here.

eg anyone like to provide some examples of a company raising 3X it's market cap to fund a project on good terms that went on to deliver multiples of it's share price back to investors? (I'll give you Fortescue as a freebie)

Seriously just go away.............................it's 3 x Market Cap at the moment and it's pretty f**king obvious why that is the case.

Or have you not heard we are waiting on a Supreme Court decision ?

Just piss off will you

 

[curiousmagpie]

Seriously just go away.............................it's 3 x Market Cap at the moment and it's pretty f**king obvious why that is the case.

Or have you not heard we are waiting on a Supreme Court decision ?

Just piss off will you

Don’t remember anyone telling you to go away when you were having a big sook a few months ago?

I’m raising clearly articulated problems with the investment case for Talga as it stands at the moment. Is the intention that this place is a safe space echo chamber away from hot crapper?

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Don’t remember anyone telling you to go away when you were having a big sook a few months ago?

I didn't go on ad infinitum about it .

I got it off my chest then shut the F Up !

You've been at it since last November

 

[curiousmagpie]

I didn't go on ad infinitum about it .

I got it off my chest then shut the F Up !

You've been at it since last November

What was the turnaround point for you?

Something change your mind that better things were round the corner? Or made peace with the loss?

The former for me not so much an issue now I'm not holding as much, but I clearly haven't reached the latter.

 

[DAH]

how is a company with a $200m market cap going to raise $600m into this market? I just can’t see it happening I’m afraid. The company

how is a company with a $200m market cap going to raise $600m into this market? I just can’t see it happening I’m afraid. The company is now a turkey waiting for Christmas

Curious, you seem to be a bottomless pit of negativity. I post on HC to genuinely try help some new investors so they don't get fleeced by BS artists.

Over here is where the good convo happens. You appeared to be a switched on investor with what I'd consider a large holding in TLG but you still can't seem to see the forest for the trees. If you can't do this you're going to have a painful ride. The fact you're talking "losses" now, and looking at Whitehaven as an alternative to Talga suggests to me you're out of alignment with where your thinking needs to be for an investment like this.

I'd suggest reading some good quality wisdom from the likes of Peter Lynch, Buffett, Munger or the likes. You need to switch your view and perhaps their wisdom can help.

Re the article, you could view it in a different light, in that it very much reiterates the need to get stable and secure supply to EU cell makers and to do it quickly. This is happening. Vittangi will almost certainly be a strategic project and if you poke into what that entails you'll see that Government funding will be utilised where needed to ensure critical projects become a reality. That's not to say TLG needs such support, but it's again one of many contingencies TLG has, and a factor in why I believe you see many of us taking an unusually high conviction in such a small company.

Take my thoughts and do as you please, but if you're going to post, try be a little more rounded

 

[curiousmagpie]

Curious, you seem to be a bottomless pit of negativity. I post on HC to genuinely try help some new investors so they don't get fleeced by BS artists.

Over here is where the good convo happens. You appeared to be a switched on investor with what I'd consider a large holding in TLG but you still can't seem to see the forest for the trees. If you can't do this you're going to have a painful ride. The fact you're talking "losses" now, and looking at Whitehaven as an alternative to Talga suggests to me you're out of alignment with where your thinking needs to be for an investment like this.

I'd suggest reading some good quality wisdom from the likes of Peter Lynch, Buffett, Munger or the likes. You need to switch your view and perhaps their wisdom can help.

Re the article, you could view it in a different light, in that it very much reiterates the need to get stable and secure supply to EU cell makers and to do it quickly. This is happening. Vittangi will almost certainly be a strategic project and if you poke into what that entails you'll see that Government funding will be utilised where needed to ensure critical projects become a reality. That's not to say TLG needs such support, but it's again one of many contingencies TLG has, and a factor in why I believe you see many of us taking an unusually high conviction in such a small company.

Take my thoughts and do as you please, but if you're going to post, try be a little more rounded

The EV investment picture has changed since I invested. The EU automakers are in damage control and now the no.1 pririoty is to compete on price and not green credentials since China came harder and faster than I could have imagined. This intense price competition is not good for Talga at all - that's the main takeaway from that article.

I took my losses on Talga and should have done sooner. Lynch, Buffet and Munger et al would not still be bagholding this, they would have ruthlessly cut losses much sooner. So I've reinvested what was left into coal where people are printing cash. I may return to the EV thematic if things improve, but until then I'm mostly on the sidelines.

Here's a thought to add to the bottomloss pit of negativity: Did you see the news about the progress Nyobolt have made? Has Talga's tech advanced much at all since Shivareddy ditched Talga? Is there anything to show that in 5 years Tal-Si has progressed from where it was in 2019? Certainly not commercially.

Electric car battery charges in under five minutes in track test

The charging time is much quicker than even the fastest-charging batteries currently on the market.

www.bbc.com

 

[DAH]

The EV investment picture has changed since I invested. The EU automakers are in damage control and now the no.1 pririoty is to compete on price and not green credentials since China came harder and faster than I could have imagined. This intense price competition is not good for Talga at all - that's the main takeaway from that article.

I took my losses on Talga and should have done sooner. Lynch, Buffet and Munger et al would not still be bagholding this, they would have ruthlessly cut losses much sooner. So I've reinvested what was left into coal where people are printing cash. I may return to the EV thematic if things improve, but until then I'm mostly on the sidelines.

Here's a thought to add to the bottomloss pit of negativity: Did you see the news about the progress Nyobolt have made? Has Talga's tech advanced much at all since Shivareddy ditched Talga? Is there anything to show that in 5 years Tal-Si has progressed from where it was in 2019? Certainly not commercially.

Electric car battery charges in under five minutes in track test

The charging time is much quicker than even the fastest-charging batteries currently on the market.

www.bbc.com

I disagree. I wish you well on your investment journey. I mean that sincerely. Cheers

 

[cosors]

I disagree. I wish you well on your investment journey. I mean that sincerely. Cheers

I also disagree.
And he can't know everything we know. You know what I mean.
I won't read his any further.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/01/cars/electric-car-battery-charge/index.html#:~:text=Nyobolt's%20technology%20builds%20on%20a,means%20they%20generate%20less%20heat.

William Kephart, an e-mobility specialist at consultancy P3 Group and a former engineer, said EV batteries of the kind Nyobolt has developed could “theoretically” be charged as fast as the firm is promising, but the challenge was manufacturing such batteries on an industrial scale.

A crucial chemical element in Nyobolt’s batteries is niobium but, as Kephart pointed out, last year only an estimated 83,000 tonnes (94,500 tons) was mined worldwide. Compare that with graphite, commonly used as anode material in lithium-ion batteries: an estimated 1.6 million tonnes (1.8 million tons) was produced in 2023.

In addition, there are currently “a lot of unknowns” with the niobium battery technology, he told CNN. “The industry will work it out… (but) it’s not seen by the industry as a scalable technology just yet,” he added.

5 Disadvantages of Niobium

• Limited supply. One of the primary disadvantages of Niobium is that it is a relatively rare element, with an estimated global supply of just 60,000 metric tons. ...
• Difficult to extract. ...
• Limited applications. ...
• Health concerns. ...
• Environmental concerns.

 

[JNRB]

Don’t remember anyone telling you to go away when you were having a big sook a few months ago?

I’m raising clearly articulated problems with the investment case for Talga as it stands at the moment. Is the intention that this place is a safe space echo chamber away from hot crapper?

They're not clearly articulated problems. They're clearly articulated imagined scenarios that ignore many positive aspects of our current reality.

1. Are you expecting the appeal SC decision to be approved? It takes a STUPID long time but every indication is still that 99% it goes in our favour.

2. Are you expecting that we will raise capital prior to the permit coming into force?
3. Are you assuming that the permit coming into force will have 0 positive impact on our SP?
....Then why are you proposing a scenario where we have to raise money at our current market cap?

4. Do you disagree with the multiple broker report valuations?
5. Do you have any reason not to believe MT when he says our financing options are very positive?
...Then give reasons.

... "EU automakers are now only going to compete on price and don't care about green credentials"
6. Do you have any evidence to believe that Talga's product cannot be competitive on price?
7. Do you have any evidence that automakers are intending to ignore EU regulations on green credentials such as battery passports?
8. Do you have any evidence to believe that automakers are indifferent to the export controls China has placed on graphite? Enough to refute the statements to the opposite by MT and multiple other industry players?


This list should be a good starting point for you to "clearly articulate" what you think might be a problem without it coming across as bellyaching or downramping.

 

[cosors]

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/01/cars/electric-car-battery-charge/index.html#:~:text=Nyobolt's%20technology%20builds%20on%20a,means%20they%20generate%20less%20heat.

William Kephart, an e-mobility specialist at consultancy P3 Group and a former engineer, said EV batteries of the kind Nyobolt has developed could “theoretically” be charged as fast as the firm is promising, but the challenge was manufacturing such batteries on an industrial scale.

A crucial chemical element in Nyobolt’s batteries is niobium but, as Kephart pointed out, last year only an estimated 83,000 tonnes (94,500 tons) was mined worldwide. Compare that with graphite, commonly used as anode material in lithium-ion batteries: an estimated 1.6 million tonnes (1.8 million tons) was produced in 2023.

In addition, there are currently “a lot of unknowns” with the niobium battery technology, he told CNN. “The industry will work it out… (but) it’s not seen by the industry as a scalable technology just yet,” he added.

5 Disadvantages of Niobium

• Limited supply. One of the primary disadvantages of Niobium is that it is a relatively rare element, with an estimated global supply of just 60,000 metric tons. ...
• Difficult to extract. ...
• Limited applications. ...
• Health concerns. ...
• Environmental concerns.

reminder:
If it goes into production, 25 units per year are expected to roll off the production line.

So I'm thinking more of a lighthouse as I said. But it can be seen far and wide.
Incidentally, niobium is used in Nesmuk's chef knives. They are really good!

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

reminder:
If it goes into production, 25 units per year are expected to roll off the production line.

So I'm thinking more of a lighthouse as I said. But it can be seen far and wide.
Incidentally, niobium is used in Nesmuk's chef knives. They are really good!

How many times over the life of my holding has someone posted about new battery technology which turns out to be crap ?????

 

[curiousmagpie]

They're not clearly articulated problems. They're clearly articulated imagined scenarios that ignore many positive aspects of our current reality.

1. Are you expecting the appeal SC decision to be approved? YES eventually (no guarantee it will be this year)

2. Are you expecting that we will raise capital prior to the permit coming into force? YES very likely. Imminent
3. Are you assuming that the permit coming into force will have 0 positive impact on our SP?
....Then why are you proposing a scenario where we have to raise money at our current market cap?

4. Do you disagree with the multiple broker report valuations? Yes. The models are flawed because they use DFS sales price for Tal-C when this is clearly not feasible. Brokers have clear incentives to be positive about the stock when they may not believe it. US$8000 is top range anode price at the moment. Maybe $150MM revenue max 2027-2030 until expansion
5. Do you have any reason not to believe MT when he says our financing options are very positive? I don't doubt the availability of debt funding. However the issues are borrowing $400MM and having $40MM+ interest to pay annually. That's going to kill FCF. The equity componemt is the real worry - raising $600MM is HARD and near impossible for a company workth $200MM. Either massive dilution of you have to give the company away to an interested party. Talga are negotiating from a position of massive weakness.
...Then give reasons.

... "EU automakers are now only going to compete on price and don't care about green credentials"
6. Do you have any evidence to believe that Talga's product cannot be competitive on price? Low cost so yes they can be competitive on price but if you have to sell your product at half of what your studies say then you are going to be fucked hard
7. Do you have any evidence that automakers are intending to ignore EU regulations on green credentials such as battery passports? This relies on the EU passing legislation and not watering it down. The EU is a mess and I wouldn't rely on them to validate any kind of investment. China has killed the EU auto industry and they will be too slow to do anything about it
8. Do you have any evidence to believe that automakers are indifferent to the export controls China has placed on graphite? Enough to refute the statements to the opposite by MT and multiple other industry players? Synthetic graphite produced within the EU using green energy. People don't want mines and it appears they don't care about synthetic grapghite using oil as a feedstock. Natural graphite appears dead.


This list should be a good starting point for you to "clearly articulate" what you think might be a problem without it coming across as bellyaching or downramping.

1. Are you expecting the appeal SC decision to be approved? YES eventually (no guarantee it will be this year)

2. Are you expecting that we will raise capital prior to the permit coming into force? YES very likely. Imminent
3. Are you assuming that the permit coming into force will have 0 positive impact on our SP? Probably just a temporary bounce. There are now bigger problems here than permits.
....Then why are you proposing a scenario where we have to raise money at our current market cap?

4. Do you disagree with the multiple broker report valuations? Yes. The models are flawed because they use DFS sales price for Tal-C when this is clearly not feasible. Brokers have clear incentives to be positive about the stock when they may not believe it. US$8000 is top range anode price at the moment. Maybe $150MM revenue max 2027-2030 until expansion
5. Do you have any reason not to believe MT when he says our financing options are very positive? I don't doubt the availability of debt funding. However the issues are borrowing $400MM and having $40MM+ interest to pay annually. That's going to kill FCF. The equity componemt is the real worry - raising $600MM is HARD and near impossible for a company workth $200MM. Either massive dilution of you have to give the company away to an interested party. Talga are negotiating from a position of massive weakness.
...Then give reasons.

... "EU automakers are now only going to compete on price and don't care about green credentials"
6. Do you have any evidence to believe that Talga's product cannot be competitive on price? Low cost so yes they can be competitive on price but if you have to sell your product at half of what your studies say then you are going to be fucked hard
7. Do you have any evidence that automakers are intending to ignore EU regulations on green credentials such as battery passports? This relies on the EU passing legislation and not watering it down. The EU is a mess and I wouldn't rely on them to validate any kind of investment. China has killed the EU auto industry and they will be too slow to do anything about it
8. Do you have any evidence to believe that automakers are indifferent to the export controls China has placed on graphite? Enough to refute the statements to the opposite by MT and multiple other industry players? Synthetic graphite produced within the EU using green energy. People don't want mines and it appears they don't care about synthetic graphite using oil as a feedstock. Natural graphite appears dead. Synthetic graphite will be what fills the EUs battery plants (of which many are now being cancelled including Talgas friends ACC)

 

[curiousmagpie]

How many times over the life of my holding has someone posted about new battery technology which turns out to be crap ?????

The point isn't about a replacement battery technology, it's about Talga's former chief scientist and the one responsible for developing Talnode Si moving on to better things (Nybolt) - and making quantifyable progress. Picking up outside investment too btw.

He was clearly the brains of the operation and without him who knows if they've been able to develop this Tal-Si product at all? Notice how the stuff about solid state anodes has dissapeared from the website and presentations? Was it always bs or was it a product developed by Shivareddy that hit a dead end after he left?

 

[cosors]

How many times over the life of my holding has someone posted about new battery technology which turns out to be crap ?????

Wait, what happened to CATL?!
I pointed it out, but he ignored it. Doesn't fit in his picture, just like QuantumScape's chart doesn't.
I remember the initial SP success being used as an argument against Talga.
Over the years I have got the impression that the determination in the industry has never been greater, back to low cost basics supplemented with Si doped graphite.

 

[cosors]

Wait, there is the threatening competition with lignin. We should roll this all over again

 

[curiousmagpie]

Talnode™-E - Talga Group

www.talgagroup.com

add this to the graveyard with Talnode-X, Talcoat and Talcrete

Talnode-Si next?

 

[curiousmagpie]

I also disagree.
And he can't know everything we know. You know what I mean.
I won't read his any further.

would seem to be a rather dangerous assumption that I know less than you about this, but if you're happy in your bubble and 4 year low share price then so be it, ignore me

 

[JNRB]

1. Are you expecting the appeal SC decision to be approved? YES eventually (no guarantee it will be this year)

2. Are you expecting that we will raise capital prior to the permit coming into force? YES very likely. Imminent
3. Are you assuming that the permit coming into force will have 0 positive impact on our SP? Probably just a temporary bounce. There are now bigger problems here than permits.
....Then why are you proposing a scenario where we have to raise money at our current market cap?

4. Do you disagree with the multiple broker report valuations? Yes. The models are flawed because they use DFS sales price for Tal-C when this is clearly not feasible. Brokers have clear incentives to be positive about the stock when they may not believe it. US$8000 is top range anode price at the moment. Maybe $150MM revenue max 2027-2030 until expansion
5. Do you have any reason not to believe MT when he says our financing options are very positive? I don't doubt the availability of debt funding. However the issues are borrowing $400MM and having $40MM+ interest to pay annually. That's going to kill FCF. The equity componemt is the real worry - raising $600MM is HARD and near impossible for a company workth $200MM. Either massive dilution of you have to give the company away to an interested party. Talga are negotiating from a position of massive weakness.
...Then give reasons.

... "EU automakers are now only going to compete on price and don't care about green credentials"
6. Do you have any evidence to believe that Talga's product cannot be competitive on price? Low cost so yes they can be competitive on price but if you have to sell your product at half of what your studies say then you are going to be fucked hard
7. Do you have any evidence that automakers are intending to ignore EU regulations on green credentials such as battery passports? This relies on the EU passing legislation and not watering it down. The EU is a mess and I wouldn't rely on them to validate any kind of investment. China has killed the EU auto industry and they will be too slow to do anything about it
8. Do you have any evidence to believe that automakers are indifferent to the export controls China has placed on graphite? Enough to refute the statements to the opposite by MT and multiple other industry players? Synthetic graphite produced within the EU using green energy. People don't want mines and it appears they don't care about synthetic graphite using oil as a feedstock. Natural graphite appears dead. Synthetic graphite will be what fills the EUs battery plants (of which many are now being cancelled including Talgas friends ACC)

Probably just a temporary bounce when our permit saga end in our favour?
LOL! hard to take much seriously after that.

Then there's some rubbish about the low price of anode and the implication the broker reports are fudging the numbers to the upside, and should use a more "realistic" 8k.

Well....

Talga's position with high anode prices was absurdly good.
So with lower prices (if that's what eventuates) we'll just have to settle for really good

People have shared very competent spreadsheets modeling most of the key variables for Talga, including price.
Go actually play with some numbers, come back with the outcome of a scenario you think is actually realistic, and then show us how Talga cannot be profitable in that environment.
Otherwise, all you're doing is imagining things. If you want to cry that the current prices are catastrophic for Talga then show us the numbers. Because the numbers I've seen still don't worry me.

"This relies on the EU passing legislation"
Already passed, go read the news. Just topped up with a good dose of tariffs on Chinese EV's



At this point, why am I even bothering to still respond.....
Everything you stated was either imagined, assumed, or uninformed or just wrong....

 

[JNRB]

would seem to be a rather dangerous assumption that I know less than you about this, but if you're happy in your bubble and 4 year low share price then so be it, ignore me

It's not a dangerous assumption, it's a realistic one, because you've provided 0 evidence that you know more than anyone else about this.
The actual evidence, that is - ie other people sharing actual evidence - is that other people do in fact know more than you.