TLG Discussion 2022

[JNRB]

Until a binding offtake is signed there is no evidence this "secret sauce" is worth a 50-100% price premium to what Syrah are doing. In fact the lack of getting a deal across the line could be the evidence that it is definitely not worth a premium.

The fact it is a proprietary process (ie new and untested at large scale) increases the risk factor massively. Some people see the word prorietary and run for the hills. It's not a bonus point for most people, especially the lack of clamour for others to licence this great process.
If it takes Syrah 18 months to ramp up to full capacity a plant that is already fully constructed using off the shelf generic process that everyone else uses, how long will it take Talga special sauce to ramp up to full capacity?

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHA omg HAHAHA

oh sorry guys I said I wouldn't respond to the troll but this just cracked me up too much...

"ie new and untested at large scale"

what the absolute fk do you think Talga was doing with the multiple-years long qualification process?
That is EXACTLY the testing at scale process. It is a very long and demanding processes, that specifically is about proving the product can be produce at scale, that we have now successfully completed with multiple potential customers.

lol.

untested my arse.

what company have you been following? Cos apparently it's not Talga.

 

[curiousmagpie]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
HAHA omg HAHAHA

oh sorry guys I said I wouldn't respond to the troll but this just cracked me up too much...

"ie new and untested at large scale"

what the absolute fk do you think Talga was doing with the multiple-years long qualification process?
That is EXACTLY the testing at scale process. It is a very long and demanding processes, that specifically is about proving the product can be produce at scale, that we have now successfully completed with multiple potential customers.

lol.

untested my arse.

what company have you been following? Cos apparently it's not Talga.

Talga is a at C-stage sampling which is as far as you can get with a pilot plant.

No D sample yet (from first production). That’s true testing at large scale. Talga are not there.

Again you all continue to try and trip me up but show at each step you’re more out of your depth than you realize.

 

[curiousmagpie]

View attachment 66450

"output is an anode precursor materials"
Talga more sophisitcated than Syrah.
Also, they're selling to Tesla. Massive market power so can screw them down on price, especially during a China-induced price dip. We have a lot more options in EU.

And yeah their capital costs are lower, but check out their cost of production - literally 50% more.

So yes Syrah is a relevant-ish comparison (Nouveau Monde better) but when you actually pay attention to what's going on rather than just superficially pulling out some numbers, picture still looking rosy.

Yes purification produces the precursor materials.

If you read the next step “Surface treatment” you get the output as finished AAM, same stage as what Talga will be producing. What’s more sophisticated about it?

You can argue that the quality of the AAM produced between the two companies will be different (unknowable to a retail investor at this stage) but you cannot argue that they’re not both producing AAM.

 

[JNRB]

Talga is a at C-stage sampling which is as far as you can get with a pilot plant.

No D sample yet (from first production). That’s true testing at large scale. Talga are not there.

Again you all continue to try and trip me up but show at each step you’re more out of your depth than you realize.

Yeah sure they do one more test on the final production line but that doesn't mean we haven't already tested and proved it can be done at scale.

 

[curiousmagpie]

Yeah sure they do one more test on the final production line but that doesn't mean we haven't already tested and proved it can be done at scale.

Pilot plant is not at scale that’s the very point of a pilot plant

 

[curiousmagpie]

whichever one of you posted that screenshot on hot crapper about my “alt” accounts it was a very obvious joke (I’m neither blacks or tt but it’s possible they are the same person)

I’d suggest deleting it otherwise you’re drawing a lot more eyes to my very valid “FUD” here that I’m deliberately not posting on hot crapper where there are many more people watching

Be careful what you wish for

 

[JNRB]

Pilot plant is not at scale that’s the very point of a pilot plant

What?
The point of a pilot plant:
is to create some that NOT at the scale of a full plant
to PROVE what will be DONE AT FULL SCALE.

I don't understand what's so difficult about that.

Not to mention that we have THE FIRST ONE in Europe. So whatever stage we're at, we're ahead of all the other local competition.
And remember - Regardless of what manufacturers want, or even what price pressures are pushing them to, EU is legislating that certain levels of production for critical materials happen within the EU.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

What?
The point of a pilot plant:
is to create some that NOT at the scale of a full plant
to PROVE what will be DONE AT FULL SCALE.

I don't understand what's so difficult about that.

Correct.........................There is nothing difficult to understand. @JNRB I suggest you save your post. You'll need it again in a few weeks LOL

 

[curiousmagpie]

What?
The point of a pilot plant:
is to create some that NOT at the scale of a full plant
to PROVE what will be DONE AT FULL SCALE.

I think you’re underestimating the risk of going from a pilot plant producing a few 100kg at a time to tens of thousands of tonnes per year. Things go wrong all the time and ramp up phase is usually acknowledged at the point in the process with the absolute highest amount of risk.

The OEMs won’t underrate the risk which is why even after successful pilot plant trials they will demand extensive successful testing of the large scale plant once it’s running. This is the D sample. They won’t just pump out 200,000 EVs from a new plant without extensive testing because if there are issues and they have to recall 200,000 cars it’s a disaster. That’s why Syrah are clear about the 18 month ramp up. MT has been very good at explaining the technical challenges or sampling and the demands from offtakers, but he has been quiet about that step once the full plant is commissioned. It remains untested because it hasn’t been built yet. “Not hard to understand” indeed.

 

[brewm0re]

might want to take me off ignore because you'll see in the post after "ruthless lawyer" WTM's "definition time" showed himself up a bit

Dunno if you’re flogging a dead horse with all this waffle, or flogging yourself. Perhaps both. Anyways, I’ll leave you to your devices and I’ll tune your noise out and FUD as I’m sure others will too. Cheerio!

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I’d suggest deleting it otherwise you’re drawing a lot more eyes to my very valid “FUD” here that I’m deliberately not posting on hot crapper where there are many more people watching

Well it twas not moi............I'm banned LOL

Go on post it over there........................@Gvan is around at the moment. Engage with him

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

By the way it's a Demonstration Plant not a Pilot Plant

At the Lulea demonstration plant, about a dozen people oversee a process in which Talga’s graphite is turned from flakes into rounded and coated particles that battery makers use in their anodes.

Inside the Swedish shed that might upend the battery market

In far northern Sweden, Talga Group is closing in on a decade-long goal: to mine and manufacture battery materials for Europe, in Europe.

www.afr.com

pilot plant vs demonstration plant - Google Search

 

[curiousmagpie]

By the way it's a Demonstration Plant not a Pilot Plant

At the Lulea demonstration plant, about a dozen people oversee a process in which Talga’s graphite is turned from flakes into rounded and coated particles that battery makers use in their anodes.

Inside the Swedish shed that might upend the battery market

In far northern Sweden, Talga Group is closing in on a decade-long goal: to mine and manufacture battery materials for Europe, in Europe.

www.afr.com

pilot plant vs demonstration plant - Google Search

The company has called it a pilot plant

Again not exactly a gotcha moment

 

[JNRB]

I think you’re underestimating the risk of going from a pilot plant producing a few 100kg at a time to tens of thousands of tonnes per year. Things go wrong all the time and ramp up phase is usually acknowledged at the point in the process with the absolute highest amount of risk.

The OEMs won’t underrate the risk which is why even after successful pilot plant trials they will demand extensive successful testing of the large scale plant once it’s running. This is the D sample. They won’t just pump out 200,000 EVs from a new plant without extensive testing because if there are issues and they have to recall 200,000 cars it’s a disaster. That’s why Syrah are clear about the 18 month ramp up. MT has been very good at explaining the technical challenges or sampling and the demands from offtakers, but he has been quiet about that step once the full plant is commissioned. It remains untested because it hasn’t been built yet. “Not hard to understand” indeed.

Granted the timelines have all blow out (thank a lot Sweden)
But it's wrong to say MT hasn't been upfront about the process of scaling:

This is in addition to comments made in webinars.
so you're slandering MT is a very lazy crack at making it look like the company is hiding things...

.... oh and you completely skipped over the part where regardless of how far behind in the processes you want to make it look like we are, WE ARE STILL THE LEADERS IN EUROPE
And can ramp to a scale that almost no-one else can match.

 

[JNRB]

Ok I'm sorry all, magpie actually made an attempt to provide some evidence to his points that I thought was worth responding to, but got carried away and now he's just back to rubbish so I promise to disconnect.

 

[JNRB]

Latest announcement, performance rights issued to CFO.
Anyone know if they were linked to particular milestones?

 

[curiousmagpie]

Granted the timelines have all blow out (thank a lot Sweden)
But it's wrong to say MT hasn't been upfront about the process of scaling:

View attachment 66472
This is in addition to comments made in webinars.
so you're slandering MT is a very lazy crack at making it look like the company is hiding things...

.... oh and you completely skipped over the part where regardless of how far behind in the processes you want to make it look like we are, WE ARE STILL THE LEADERS IN EUROPE
And can ramp to a scale that almost no-one else can match.

Shanshan in Finland
Putailai in Sweden

Both will likely be producing 100,000s of tonnes of cheap synthetic graphite before Talga switch on the Lulea plant. They’ll ramp very quickly because they’re using processes they’ve already proven at scale. It’s not natural graphite but the OEMs won’t care. Price will come first. Talga currently struggling to lead the EU natural graphite anode race in a field of one.

 

[JNRB]

I overheard someone talking about Shanshan in Finland so I thought I'd check it out.
- 1.3B for 100ktpa anode plant.

Help me out with this guys. Because I'm worried about how Talga's capex has gone up. It's nice to have this number as a benchmark.
0.525B, lets use worst case +-50% accuracy range >> 0.79B

SHANSHAN 1.3B for 100ktpa
TALGA 0.8B for 120ktpa

Now if I'm not mistaken, Talga looks pretty good there by comparison.
And I'm skeptical how much EU funding is going to go to entrenching Chinese dominance in the supply chain.

That's just capex for plant. The juicy bet for us comes when you look at the cost of production which is cheaper for natural especially when you have that sweet, sweet high-grade ore

 

[curiousmagpie]

I overheard someone talking about Shanshan in Finland so I thought I'd check it out.
- 1.3B for 100ktpa anode plant.

Help me out with this guys. Because I'm worried about how Talga's capex has gone up. It's nice to have this number as a benchmark.
0.525B, lets use worst case +-50% accuracy range >> 0.79B

SHANSHAN 1.3B for 100ktpa
TALGA 0.8B for 120ktpa

Now if I'm not mistaken, Talga looks pretty good there by comparison.
And I'm skeptical how much EU funding is going to go to entrenching Chinese dominance in the supply chain.

That's just capex for plant. The juicy bet for us comes when you look at the cost of production which is cheaper for natural especially when you have that sweet, sweet high-grade ore

View attachment 66497

You realise the table you’ve included there from the recent scoping study is capex for the mine site only? It doesn’t include the anode plant. No special sauce being made for those figures above. Billions more required for that. Yes you’re mistaken.

 

[curiousmagpie]