TLG Discussion 2022

[DAH]

And this is exactly why we shouldn’t engage with this idiot. I had this argument months ago and he kept running down rabbit holes back then until even he realised his argument was demolished.

Syrah is not a valid comparison. They use an off the shelf Chinese mainland product to coat their anode. It’s used by most of their anode producers .

HE KNOWS THAT

Syrah does not have its own proprietary coating
He knows that yet he has now brought up the same argument again because he knows you probably don’t recall my argument with him

He’s a Troll

Exactly! And I recall that engagement

Just a quick point on price to refresh us all after the misleading fluff.

Projects are priced on long term forecasts for product. 10+ years, not today. It considers...
Anticipated supply deficits from next year
Battery passport assessment within 2-3 yrs
Ex China pricing as focus is on local supply
Negotiations with customers are based on independent analysis using several reliable analysts - today's price is somewhat irrelevant.

Someone is again lost in the trees (maybe on purpose, maybe not).

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Ok, thx for the correction. How about the other stuff though?

His correction of you is irrelevant.

They coat their product with off the shelf generic anode chemicals imported from China. There is no distributor or manufacturer outside China. It's all imported directly.

That's why MT has repeatedly used the expression when discussing Talnode C performance "it all depends on your secret sauce"

 

[curiousmagpie]

His correction of you is irrelevant.

They coat their product with off the shelf generic anode chemicals imported from China. There is no distributor or manufacturer outside China. It's all imported directly.

That's why MT has repeatedly used the expression when discussing Talnode C performance "it all depends on your secret sauce"

Until a binding offtake is signed there is no evidence this "secret sauce" is worth a 50-100% price premium to what Syrah are doing. In fact the lack of getting a deal across the line could be the evidence that it is definitely not worth a premium.

The fact it is a proprietary process (ie new and untested at large scale) increases the risk factor massively. Some people see the word prorietary and run for the hills. It's not a bonus point for most people, especially the lack of clamour for others to licence this great process.
If it takes Syrah 18 months to ramp up to full capacity a plant that is already fully constructed using off the shelf generic process that everyone else uses, how long will it take Talga special sauce to ramp up to full capacity?

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Until a binding offtake is signed there is no evidence this "secret sauce" is worth a 50-100% price premium to what Syrah are doing. In fact the lack of getting a deal across the line could be the evidence that it is definitely not worth a premium.

The fact it is a proprietary process (ie new and untested at large scale) increases the risk factor massively. Some people see the word prorietary and run for the hills. It's not a bonus point for most people, especially the lack of clamour for others to licence this great process.
If it takes Syrah 18 months to ramp up to full capacity a plant that is already fully constructed using off the shelf generic process that everyone else uses, how long will it take Talga special sauce to ramp up to full capacity?

You are positively unhinged.......now you are implying that MT has just been lying about performance stuff all along

There you go back to the old offtakes line.........regurgitating old arguments for which there have always been very simple explanations............running up and down rabbit holes ....................................................around and around in circles........................... then back down another rabbit hole

 

[curiousmagpie]

Exactly! And I recall that engagement

Just a quick point on price to refresh us all after the misleading fluff.

Projects are priced on long term forecasts for product. 10+ years, not today. It considers...
Anticipated supply deficits from next year
Battery passport assessment within 2-3 yrs
Ex China pricing as focus is on local supply
Negotiations with customers are based on independent analysis using several reliable analysts - today's price is somewhat irrelevant.

Someone is again lost in the trees (maybe on purpose, maybe not).

Thanks, this is the first response on price that puts forward a coherent argument on why there might be a premium for Tal-C.
I disagree strongly that anything else I've said is misleading - please point out what is misleading. The points above do not contradict what I've said, it's just the alterative view that there is a possibility of a price premium.

I used to believe this too, but have changed my mind. The OEMs are in a price war, and it seems price is the only thing that now matters. Everything else is noise until there is evidence that anyone anywhere is paying a price premium for "special sauce".

 

[curiousmagpie]

You are positively unhinged

There you go back to the old offtakes line.........regurgitating old arguments for which there have always been very simple explanations............running up and down rabbit holes ....................................................around and around in circles........................... then back down another rabbit hole

Sure, I'm the unhinged one here posting large all caps responses and irrelevant gifs.

I'm talking facts about the risks and challenges of bringing online a mine that locals don't want AND a complex industrial plant - concurrently.

I'm comparing to peers with publicly available information - where they are being conservative on price and realistic about timescales.

Does it not worry you that Talga's current messaging is that they can get double the price and get to nameplate capacity in half the time as the competition? But sure ignore it and call me a conspiracy theorist if it makes you feel better.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

get to nameplate capacity in half the time as the competition? But sure ignore it and call me a conspiracy theorist if it makes you feel better.

If you actually knew what the key differences are between the two companies you'd realise that Syrah's product requires a helluva lot more crushing and refining than TLG's. And it's NOT an off the shelf procedure to get the machinery at Vidalia working corectly.

TLG's mined product is already the correct size.

Hence the expression "Anode Mine"

Wait a minute I am wrong...................... you did already know that

 

[curiousmagpie]

If you actually knew what the key differences are between the two companies you'd realise that Syrah's product requires a helluva lot more crushing and refining than TLG's. And it's NOT an off the shelf procedure to get the machinery at Vidalia working corectly.

TLG's mined product is already the correct size.

Hence the expression "Anode Mine"

Wait a minute I am wrong...................... you did already know that

The crushing is done in Mozambique and the concentrate is shipped to the USA, so that doesn't explain the differences between Vidalia vs Lulea construction and ramp up timescales. There is a lot more waste in the Syrah refining process yes.

I know it's not an off the shelf procedure to get Vidalia working, I was just using your descriptions.

Does it not worry you that Talga's current messaging is that they can get to nameplate capacity in half the time as Syrah?

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

The crushing is done in Mozambique and the concentrate is shipped to the USA, so that doesn't explain the differences between Vidalia vs Lulea construction and ramp up timescales. There is a lot more waste in the Syrah refining process yes.

I know it's not an off the shelf procedure to get Vidalia working, I was just using your descriptions.

Does it not worry you that Talga's current messaging is that they can get to nameplate capacity in half the time as Syrah?

Definition time​

Mineral milling, a pivotal process in the realm of mineral processing, is all about breaking down ores into finer particles. This transformative process commences with primary and secondary crushing, reducing large rocks into smaller fragments.

Syrah Resources starts production at Vidalia AAM facility in US​

Syrah Resources has produced unpurified spherical graphite from the front-end milling area since October last year to build an inventory of precursor value-added material before commissioning the purification and furnace areas in January 2024.

The company produced its first purified spherical graphite material last month.

Syrah Resources starts production at Vidalia AAM facility in US

Syrah Resources has started the production of active anode material (AAM) at its 11.25ktpa Vidalia AAM facility located in Louisiana, US.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

 

[curiousmagpie]

Definition time​

Mineral milling, a pivotal process in the realm of mineral processing, is all about breaking down ores into finer particles. This transformative process commences with primary and secondary crushing, reducing large rocks into smaller fragments.

Syrah Resources starts production at Vidalia AAM facility in US​

Syrah Resources has produced unpurified spherical graphite from the front-end milling area since October last year to build an inventory of precursor value-added material before commissioning the purification and furnace areas in January 2024.

The company produced its first purified spherical graphite material last month.

Syrah Resources starts production at Vidalia AAM facility in US

Syrah Resources has started the production of active anode material (AAM) at its 11.25ktpa Vidalia AAM facility located in Louisiana, US.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

Just look at their website

Vidalia Active Anode Material Facility

A globally significant vertically integrated natural graphite and battery anode company, supplying battery and industrial markets with high quality, environmentally differentiated and customer qualified products.

www.syrahresources.com.au

Crushing in Mozambique, grinding and shaping in Louisiana.

If you're aiming for a gotcha moment it would be best to get your terminology correct first before you start with the condescending "definition time"

 

[curiousmagpie]

Does it not worry you that Talga's current messaging is that they can get to nameplate capacity in half the time as Syrah?

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Does it not worry you that Talga's current messaging is that they can get to nameplate capacity in half the time as Syrah?

Nope

TLGs processing to size is minimal if even necessary...................it's an Anode Mine

But keep at it..............I know you'll just repeat your lame arguments again in 6 weeks time

 

[DAH]

Thanks, this is the first response on price that puts forward a coherent argument on why there might be a premium for Tal-C.
I disagree strongly that anything else I've said is misleading - please point out what is misleading. The points above do not contradict what I've said, it's just the alterative view that there is a possibility of a price premium.

I used to believe this too, but have changed my mind. The OEMs are in a price war, and it seems price is the only thing that now matters. Everything else is noise until there is evidence that anyone anywhere is paying a price premium for "special sauce".

I'm not specifically referring to Tal-C getting a premium (it likely will), but more so graphite anode from within the EU. I get OEM's are fixated on price but that will need to change if they want local supply and to meet future battery passport requirements. Anode is somewhere around 10% of the battery cost. If the customer baulks on price they risk far greater costs to their business than the ex-China premium.

My main issue with your statements revolves around project funding. A while back you were of the strong opinion there'd need to be large company share dilution to address capex. This has since been clarified by MT that no company equity is necessary (to go with the 60% debt) as it is expected to come by virtue of Government aid and strategic investment (cell makers and now OEM's is my understanding).

You've missed this, or ignored it, and you go on about how the project can no longer be funded (or viable) due to AAM pricing and TLG's market cap of ~$200M.

The debt component appears as good as locked, and for that to be the case the financiers are happy that there are adequate deals to be done to support / underwrite the project. And yes there's no binding offtakes like SYR has with Tesla which includes 1000+ caveats to rescind the deal. But IMO TLG have some firm commitment from customers due to the fact the refinery is being customised to individual specifications of such customers. TLG wouldn't do this without deals ready to go or some other clauses to cover TLG's risk here.

And in case something falls over, strategic status should be a formality come November/December. Under such, finance will be given to strategic projects where necessary, in order to ensure they get going to address long term broad CRMA objectives. Projects already permitted (or in the process of such) are eligible for funding so stage 1 capex is fair game for financial support if ever needed. The EU and the success of a local automotive industry are in strife if TLG doesn't get moving soon.

You and I don't agree on this stuff and that's ok. You do your thing and I'll do mine. I'm not going to spend my time going back and forth with you as it doesn't seem productive or time well spent

 

[curiousmagpie]

My main issue with your statements revolves around project funding. A while back you were of the strong opinion there'd need to be large company share dilution to address capex. This has since been clarified by MT that no company equity is necessary (to go with the 60% debt) as it is expected to come by virtue of Government aid and strategic investment (cell makers and now OEM's is my understanding).

You've missed this, or ignored it, and you go on about how the project can no longer be funded (or viable) due to AAM pricing and TLG's market cap of ~$200M.

"clarified by MT that no company equity is necessary"

I certainly haven't missed MT saying this at every step. I also didn't miss the change in tone in the most recent presentation:

My underline. Read those words only. It's a soft launch of what is likely to come = dilution.

HeadCo equity = company equity is firmly on the table now and in discussion. After following the way companies communicate stuff for so long picking up on the reasons and incentives for their messaging becomes easier to read. That slide is a soft launch of the news to come - the project if funded will include company equity, of that I now have little doubt.
The fact this pivot has come so late after claiming so long no company equity on the table is just another indicator that Talga is not negotiating from a position of strength and is having to concede ground.

If next time MT speaks (webinar?) he confirms that company equity is back off the table I may change my mind, until then it pays to prioritize what they print in black and white over what is said out loud.

 

[DAH]

"clarified by MT that no company equity is necessary"

I certainly haven't missed MT saying this at every step. I also didn't miss the change in tone in the most recent presentation:

View attachment 66444

My underline. Read those words only. It's a soft launch of what is likely to come = dilution.

HeadCo equity = company equity is firmly on the table now and in discussion. After following the way companies communicate stuff for so long picking up on the reasons and incentives for their messaging becomes easier to read. That slide is a soft launch of the news to come - the project if funded will include company equity, of that I now have little doubt.
The fact this pivot has come so late after claiming so long no company equity on the table is just another indicator that Talga is not negotiating from a position of strength and is having to concede ground.

If next time MT speaks (webinar?) he confirms that company equity is back off the table I may change my mind, until then it pays to prioritize what they print in black and white over what is said out loud.

Again I disagree. And if that becomes a reality, I know it was a last resort (or makes sense), and secondly, it doesn't change the bigger picture which goes well beyond stage 1 of Tal-C.

 

[curiousmagpie]

What do you disagree with? It's there in black and white from a month ago that headco equity is in discussion. You told me I was the one who missed something????


I feel like I'm the only sane one in an asylum here

 

[curiousmagpie]

will log in to my blacks and tt accounts an post over on hot crapper where some sanity might prevail

 

[brewm0re]

Definition time​

Mineral milling, a pivotal process in the realm of mineral processing, is all about breaking down ores into finer particles. This transformative process commences with primary and secondary crushing, reducing large rocks into smaller fragments.

Syrah Resources starts production at Vidalia AAM facility in US​

Syrah Resources has produced unpurified spherical graphite from the front-end milling area since October last year to build an inventory of precursor value-added material before commissioning the purification and furnace areas in January 2024.

The company produced its first purified spherical graphite material last month.

Syrah Resources starts production at Vidalia AAM facility in US

Syrah Resources has started the production of active anode material (AAM) at its 11.25ktpa Vidalia AAM facility located in Louisiana, US.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

WTM, I reckon you might’ve been a lawyer in another life Hold the line, and I will be ignoring the TrollLife is too short.

Nope

TLGs processing to size is minimal if even necessary...................it's an Anode Mine

But keep at it..............I know you'll just repeat your lame arguments again in 6 weeks time

WTM, how does Mrs WTM go when you’re adamant in your convictions?! You woulda been a ruthless lawyer! Cheers to shutting this FUD down

 

[curiousmagpie]

WTM, I reckon you might’ve been a lawyer in another life Hold the line, and I will be ignoring the TrollLife is too short.

might want to take me off ignore because you'll see in the post after "ruthless lawyer" WTM's "definition time" showed himself up a bit

 

[JNRB]

"output is an anode precursor materials"
Talga more sophisitcated than Syrah.
Also, they're selling to Tesla. Massive market power so can screw them down on price, especially during a China-induced price dip. We have a lot more options in EU.

And yeah their capital costs are lower, but check out their cost of production - literally 50% more.

So yes Syrah is a relevant-ish comparison (Nouveau Monde better) but when you actually pay attention to what's going on rather than just superficially pulling out some numbers, picture still looking rosy.