curiousmagpie
Regular
I've asked you before as to what fundamentals have changed since you invested but you didn't answer. I can only see the fundamentals as having improved, along with a lot of de-risking. So again the issue seems to be your intolerance of a shite share price, and lack of public proof of progress. I get it as most get caught up in this cycle, but you're invested in a business, not a share price.
I'm happy to race you over 5 years. You close out your Talga position and pick the next winner and we'll race!
The fundamentals that have changed negatively since I made a substantial investment (bought my first shares more than 4 years ago but not a big position, most came in last 4 years) include:
Outside company control to different extents:
First production 2024. Now 2026 (maybe)
Niska expansion production 2026. Now 2030 (maybe)
Anode price has collapsed. Benchmark were forecasting $12,000+/t for Talga, but the reality now that is unachievable in this market. $8,000/t would be lucky.
Within company control to different extents
ACC offtake to become binding shortly! That was nearly 2 years ago. Does it still have a pulse?
Verkor offtake... 18 months and counting
Graphene! The graphene hype was what made me first pay attention to Talga. Has there been any progress at all? The ship coating plans sunk to the bottom of the baltic. Any other progress?
Tal-Si development could have been progressed without permits. All we have are promises. Nothing has been closed.
Capital management strategy - ramping up staff and other overhead costs with expectation of revenue sooner than it will come. Seems like a mistake now. Interesting to see when they start cutting jobs.
The company has no doubt made substantial progress in 4 years, but ultimately has nothing to show for it. The collapse of the share price means funding is hard, despite EIB the de-risking. Permitting has been de-risked with granting of the permit but the appeals and delays have caused even more damage. And the longer the talk goes on of commercial progress without deals being done the riskier this gets imo. Easy to see in hindsight but this has been a slow moving car crash that I should have bailed from sooner.
As for picking a bigger winner than Talga over a 5 year time frame - I invested what I took out of Talga into White Haven Coal at $8. Willing to bet over 5 years total returns will be higher than Talga.