TLG Discussion 2022

[Semmel]

Can I drag the brains trust away from stolen row boats for a minute ()

Tal-Si... it can be a standalone product that doesn't need Vittangi graphite, and can use recycled black mass or graphite from a 3rd party. Whilst almost all eyes are fixated on the SC, I'm keen to hear if others think Tal-Si might jump out from behind and introduce itself, potentially before FID is locked up for Stage 1 of Tal-C.

I'm pretty sure MT has mentioned they were close to having some finance underwritten, but it fell over, and now it sounds as though Government aid is being sought.

I'm keen on Tal-Si, I think it'll surprise to the upside, and just maybe something pops whilst we all wait. And if it can burn some shorts too, well that'd be Xmas comes early for me!

If I remember correctly (and I might not!), I think that Talnode-Si contains 50% graphite, 50% silicon particles. They sourced the graphite so far from Vittanghi, which means Talnode-Si depends on the SC decision as well as Talnode-C. When you look at the expansion plans, they name an artifical intermediate product and price it such that it can be further processed to Talnode-C or Si variants and others depending on customer. At least thats what I understand. Because of that dependency to Vittanghi, I mention many times and I want to repeat here, that Talnode-Si would benefit from using synthetic Graphite instead of Vittanghi Graphite, in order to make it independent even if that increases the CO2 cost of the product. I know its a bit counter intuitive, but the political landscape is not in favor of reducing CO2 emissions, and in order to survive, Talga has to make a hard decision here: wait for the mine (including the extension for higher Talnode-Si volumes) or increase the CO2 emissions slightly for this premium product. The CO2 emission can be offset if done using green power, so its not all lost, as I think the independent production is more important for Talga.

As for the graphite from recycled batteries, I think this was to be processed to graphene products such as carbon black coating alternatives or graphene cathode coatings. I think I remember such material would also be used in Talnode-Si. The goal to recycle the black mass to new battery grade spherical graphite is experimental at best.

 

[Diogenese]

I wasn't aware of any finance falling over. Just that they wanted the whole package together including finance sorted which was close

I think two possible reasons why there has been no news:

1. It's being kept as a backup in the (unlikely) event of a negative SC outcome. If the SC allows the appeal who knows how long that will blow out the timeline by. Years more. So Tal-si would be a company saver in that instance. This may have been a good strategy 6 months ago but in hindsight disastrous.

2. It's not actually that good and there aren't many takers. Lots of Silicon anode startups getting some decent funding, why not Talga? At least 6 years in the making and zero commercial progress. What happened to Johnson Matthey? Unless they are the "industrial conglomerate" referred to in a presentation recently.

It's not that good, but 9% Talnode-Si increases the anode charge density by 40%. If memory serves, it also has faster charge rate and is better in cold temperatures.

How can there be takers when we aren't making commercial quantities? The product hasn't been launched. The local council is preventing development by sitting on its hands while holding a gun to the government's head, and we're the meat in the sandwich - think of those contortions.*

*Love a metaphor salad

 

[curiousmagpie]

It's not that good, but 9% Talnode-Si increases the anode charge density by 40%. If memory serves, it also has faster charge rate and is better in cold temperatures.

How can there be takers when we aren't making commercial quantities? The product hasn't been launched. The local council is preventing development by sitting on its hands while holding a gun to the government's head, and we're the meat in the sandwich - think of those contortions.*

*Love a metaphor salad

If the technology is good enough significant investments are being made in Silicon anode startups prior to commercial prodcution in companies that have or had pilot plants, eg

Sila have raised over $1bn
Group14 $400m from Porsche plus others
OneD investment from GM
A few other examples

Why is no one throwing money at Talga if is Tal-Si is as good? Talga have been doing this for over half a decade, why no progress on serious investors? Why no major on the register?

 

[teilenswert]

Can I drag the brains trust away from stolen row boats for a minute ()

Tal-Si... it can be a standalone product that doesn't need Vittangi graphite, and can use recycled black mass or graphite from a 3rd party. Whilst almost all eyes are fixated on the SC, I'm keen to hear if others think Tal-Si might jump out from behind and introduce itself, potentially before FID is locked up for Stage 1 of Tal-C.

I'm pretty sure MT has mentioned they were close to having some finance underwritten, but it fell over, and now it sounds as though Government aid is being sought.

I'm keen on Tal-Si, I think it'll surprise to the upside, and just maybe something pops whilst we all wait. And if it can burn some shorts too, well that'd be Xmas comes early for me!

My assessment of this, which is based purely on gut feeling and which of course I cannot prove:
I would assume that Tal-Si only can only archieve the outstanding values, that make MT so enthusiastic, in combination with Talga's own graphite and its very special composition, while the performance and/or efficiency of production with foreign graphite is significantly less promising. In this respect, Mark would be right that the production of Tal-Si would in principle also be possible with foreign graphite, but there would also be understandable reasons why Talga has not simply been buying in foreign graphite (Leading Edge has an approved mine in Sweden!) for 1-2 years and thus has not been developing the product to market maturity and generating income streams that at least cover the running costs.

By the way, Shirley Meng, who you probably know her from her podcast with Jordan G. from TheLimitingFactor, has just announced a breakthrough in the production of anode-free sodium solid-state batteries. The world is certainly not waiting for Talga and Sweden to finally get their act together. *tick tack*

UChicago Prof. Shirley Meng’s Laboratory for Energy Storage and Conversion creates world’s first anode-free sodium solid-state battery – a breakthrough in inexpensive, clean, fast-charging batteries

pme.uchicago.edu

 

[cosors]

My assessment of this, which is based purely on gut feeling and which of course I cannot prove:
I would assume that Tal-Si only can only archieve the outstanding values, that make MT so enthusiastic, in combination with Talga's own graphite and its very special composition, while the performance and/or efficiency of production with foreign graphite is significantly less promising. In this respect, Mark would be right that the production of Tal-Si would in principle also be possible with foreign graphite, but there would also be understandable reasons why Talga has not simply been buying in foreign graphite (Leading Edge has an approved mine in Sweden!) for 1-2 years and thus has not been developing the product to market maturity and generating income streams that at least cover the running costs.

By the way, Shirley Meng, who you probably know her from her podcast with Jordan G. from TheLimitingFactor, has just announced a breakthrough in the production of anode-free sodium solid-state batteries. The world is certainly not waiting for Talga and Sweden to finally get their act together. *tick tack*

UChicago Prof. Shirley Meng’s Laboratory for Energy Storage and Conversion creates world’s first anode-free sodium solid-state battery – a breakthrough in inexpensive, clean, fast-charging batteries

pme.uchicago.edu

I just remembered, didn't CATL say a year or so ago that a world-changing breakthrough in mass production will coming this year?

QuantumScape

 

[DAH]

If I remember correctly (and I might not!), I think that Talnode-Si contains 50% graphite, 50% silicon particles. They sourced the graphite so far from Vittanghi, which means Talnode-Si depends on the SC decision as well as Talnode-C. When you look at the expansion plans, they name an artifical intermediate product and price it such that it can be further processed to Talnode-C or Si variants and others depending on customer. At least thats what I understand. Because of that dependency to Vittanghi, I mention many times and I want to repeat here, that Talnode-Si would benefit from using synthetic Graphite instead of Vittanghi Graphite, in order to make it independent even if that increases the CO2 cost of the product. I know its a bit counter intuitive, but the political landscape is not in favor of reducing CO2 emissions, and in order to survive, Talga has to make a hard decision here: wait for the mine (including the extension for higher Talnode-Si volumes) or increase the CO2 emissions slightly for this premium product. The CO2 emission can be offset if done using green power, so its not all lost, as I think the independent production is more important for Talga.

As for the graphite from recycled batteries, I think this was to be processed to graphene products such as carbon black coating alternatives or graphene cathode coatings. I think I remember such material would also be used in Talnode-Si. The goal to recycle the black mass to new battery grade spherical graphite is experimental at best.

Cheers Semmel. I agree re use of synthetic and I can only assume that's what MT is referring to when he mentions they've tested Si successfully without Vittangi graphite.
There's two objectives, first being to help facilitate the transition to electric vehicles (that reduces co2) and then the icing on the cake is making it as ESG friendly as possible (hence Vittangi graphite is ideal). So getting the product out there in every way possible makes sense and it sounds like that's the intention.

Re recycling, it very much sounds as tho the black mass recovered can be used within Tal-Si. May webinar link is below - Tal-Si is discussed from 32.00 to 37.40 mins.

 

[DAH]

If the technology is good enough significant investments are being made in Silicon anode startups prior to commercial prodcution in companies that have or had pilot plants, eg

Sila have raised over $1bn
Group14 $400m from Porsche plus others
OneD investment from GM
A few other examples

Why is no one throwing money at Talga if is Tal-Si is as good? Talga have been doing this for over half a decade, why no progress on serious investors? Why no major on the register?

What makes you think no-one is throwing money at Talga and specifically here Tal-Si? It's been clearly stated they have customers, they have strategic investors and the product is said to be able to compete with Chinese alternatives on cost metrics. MT "It's at a very advanced stage"

I know that's not good enough to hang your hat on but it's all you're going to get whilst things sit behind NDA's. MT has also mentioned he doesn't want this being aired in the broad market until all pieces of the puzzle have come together.

You don't seem to appreciate the tight rope MT has to walk, between keeping us shareholders happy, to refraining from breaching NDA's and staying within the flags of the copious Acts and Regularions he's bound by. It's no doubt a very challenging gig.

 

[DAH]

I imagine any qualification done to date has been done using vittangi graphite.

I believe using recycled black mass as the input to Talnode-Si would require requalification from the start given the different processes involved. I think if it were to jump out of nowhere, it would be for a short implementation time if the SC rejected the appeal, or a longer implementation time if they haven't and the customer needed time to qualify Talnode-Si from recycling (or alternative graphite source which I'd doubt).

I also feel like in one of the presentations or comments somewhere, recycled graphite would only be used for structural purposes (I.e. Coating the silicon), and new graphite would be needed for the rest, so still not 100% independent from Vittangi. Or maybe Talnode-Si could be from recycled graphite (50% silicon 50% carbon structure) but it needs to be blended in with graphite still, which would be from vittangi (Talnode-C, if a customer purchased both from us)

Cheers BlackBeak. You're likely right re re-quals, but I think given its a drop in additive that's not as arduous as we've had to endure with other products like Tal-C. If you get bored, I found May's webinar a god refresher as MT discusses it all and it very much sounds like the black mass is earmarked to help form part of the graphite component for Tal-Si - 32.00 mins on via this link

 

[DAH]

My assessment of this, which is based purely on gut feeling and which of course I cannot prove:
I would assume that Tal-Si only can only archieve the outstanding values, that make MT so enthusiastic, in combination with Talga's own graphite and its very special composition, while the performance and/or efficiency of production with foreign graphite is significantly less promising. In this respect, Mark would be right that the production of Tal-Si would in principle also be possible with foreign graphite, but there would also be understandable reasons why Talga has not simply been buying in foreign graphite (Leading Edge has an approved mine in Sweden!) for 1-2 years and thus has not been developing the product to market maturity and generating income streams that at least cover the running costs.

By the way, Shirley Meng, who you probably know her from her podcast with Jordan G. from TheLimitingFactor, has just announced a breakthrough in the production of anode-free sodium solid-state batteries. The world is certainly not waiting for Talga and Sweden to finally get their act together. *tick tack*

UChicago Prof. Shirley Meng’s Laboratory for Energy Storage and Conversion creates world’s first anode-free sodium solid-state battery – a breakthrough in inexpensive, clean, fast-charging batteries

pme.uchicago.edu

Cheers Teilenswert. I'd also guess you're correct in your thinking, as vittangi is no doubt the preferred graphite. Talk of a base in the US was the example where MT suggests they'd use other graphite (tested successfullly), but unsure if gives same quality.

I follow Shirley too. I can't conclude much from the anode free SS batteries. If they get to market I guess they'll meet some demand but not get to a mass adoption position. There's so much demand forecast it's safe to assume most product will get taken, and then there's the fact so much infrastructure is already built or being built targeting lithium ion batteries. So I don't see anything yet as taking any of Talgas potential pie.

If TLG can soon get the keys to the castle (appeals squashed), there's a great opportunity to get out in front within the EU and I believe there'll be many potential moats they'll establish to bullet proof the business.

 

[curiousmagpie]

What makes you think no-one is throwing money at Talga and specifically here Tal-Si? It's been clearly stated they have customers, they have strategic investors and the product is said to be able to compete with Chinese alternatives on cost metrics. MT "It's at a very advanced stage"

I know that's not good enough to hang your hat on but it's all you're going to get whilst things sit behind NDA's. MT has also mentioned he doesn't want this being aired in the broad market until all pieces of the puzzle have come together.

You don't seem to appreciate the tight rope MT has to walk, between keeping us shareholders happy, to refraining from breaching NDA's and staying within the flags of the copious Acts and Regularions he's bound by. It's no doubt a very challenging gig.

Two fairly simple reasons I know no one is throwing money at it:

Exhibit one (quarterly):

Exhibit 2 (annual report)

There are no strategic investors, only talks. It's only ever talks and non-binding agreements that go nowhere.

Why hasn't an entity taken a substantial holder stake in the company if Tal-Si is so good? I understand it's more difficult as a publicly listed company than a private start-up, but they could still buy on market if the potential was that good. Auto companies have thrown hundreds of millions of US$ at others. They could build a position in Talga on market for a fraction of that, but they haven't. Or have been a strategic investor via placement at any time in the last 5+ years, but they haven't. Why? Maybe there was a big plan to do this in a particular order to maximise shareholder value and limit dilution etc, but on the evidence that matters (the share price) it has been disastrous and a complete destruction of shareholder value.

As a comparison my view on a company like Vulcan is that they are less proven, higher risk and have some questionable reporting and activity compared to Talga, yet they have been able to attract major players like Peugeot, CIMIC and Hancock on the register. Where are those type of players coming for Talga? All we have is Mark Creasy who has held shares since before it was an anode company. Where are the serious investors? There's only so much you can rely on the talk of things happening behind the scenes and deals progressing until you lose patience for lack of actual black and white actions. I have passed this point now.

You say MT has to walk a tightrope including keeping shareholders happy - well are any of you happy?

 

[curiousmagpie]

I should have paid more attention to some advice I was given a while ago.

Don't watch company presentations or director interviews (especially director tweets and breadcrumbs). Don't get caught up in the hype of a good salesman. Read the company announcements only. Actions vs words.

Would have saved myself a lot of money here.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I should have paid more attention to some advice I was given a while ago.

Don't watch company presentations or director interviews (especially director tweets and breadcrumbs). Don't get caught up in the hype of a good salesman. Read the company announcements only. Actions vs words.

Would have saved myself a lot of money here.

Well in that case why don't you sell the rest of your shares ?

Seems to me you have already convinced yourself that TLG is not for you so you really should take some of your own advice and move on.

Otherwise you should explain what exactly is keeping you here ?

By the way I think it is far more important that the "good salesman" has skin in the game than a third party being onboard

 

[curiousmagpie]

Well in that case why don't you sell the rest of your shares ?

Seems to me you have already convinced yourself that TLG is not for you so you really should take some of your own advice and move on.

Otherwise you should explain what exactly is keeping you here ?

It's a discussion forum. I like (talking about) the stock. Would people rather an echo chamber or people sometimes bringing some criticism? Happy for it to be refuted.

I'm holding on to shares to participate in the capital raise - if conditions are right.
There is money to be made here if they demonstrate progress, but until then the market will continue to be skeptical and punish the company. At 4 year lows now and signs point to more pain before things improve.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I'm holding on to shares to participate in the capital raise - if conditions are right.
There is money to be made here if they demonstrate progress, but until then the market will continue to be skeptical and punish the company. At 4 year lows now and signs point to more pain before things improve.

Well that does not make a lot of sense.

How can they demonstrate progress unless they have a permit ?

You seem a bit at odds with yourself.

We are all frustrated with the wait but speculation as to why the Top 20 does not have an OEM in it really is just showing a mind wandering off into the never never much like a reindeer at the first sign of snow LOL

 

[DAH]

It's a discussion forum. I like (talking about) the stock. Would people rather an echo chamber or people sometimes bringing some criticism? Happy for it to be refuted.

I'm holding on to shares to participate in the capital raise - if conditions are right.
There is money to be made here if they demonstrate progress, but until then the market will continue to be skeptical and punish the company. At 4 year lows now and signs point to more pain before things improve.

Well thanks for putting some meat on the bones for us to better understand your gripes with the company.

You seem to be judging Talga almost solely on its share price - that's a big mistake!

Comparing TLG & VUL is apples and oranges. Auto OEM's don't buy shares on market to make returns on investment, they're fixated on securing supply. The way they do that with TLG is via long term offtakes and strategic investment in projects. If Talga were not able to achieve both of these they'd likely be discussing company equity, but alas they're not. You want a public deal, MT wants long term growth and that requires achieving the best deals possible. He isn't yet needing to appease you as a short sighted sh, as that's to his own detriment.

You: "I'm holding on to shares to participate in the capital raise - if conditions are right" - given what you've written, this doesn't make a lot of sense, as what condition do you expect to have changed? And secondly, if there's a raise it's likely we won't be involved so you won't need to be a holder and could simply purchase on mkt.

I've been buying shares in Talga for over 10 years now. You've done 4 years. I'd suggest anyone trying to judge Talga and its progress and achievements needs a minimum 10 yr focus. Anything less and you might be unhappy.

I've asked you before as to what fundamentals have changed since you invested but you didn't answer. I can only see the fundamentals as having improved, along with a lot of de-risking. So again the issue seems to be your intolerance of a shite share price, and lack of public proof of progress. I get it as most get caught up in this cycle, but you're invested in a business, not a share price.

I'm happy to race you over 5 years. You close out your Talga position and pick the next winner and we'll race!

 

[curiousmagpie]

Well that does not make a lot of sense.

How can they demonstrate progress unless they have a permit ?

You seem a bit at odds with yourself.

We are all frustrated with the wait but speculation as to why the Top 20 does not have an OEM in it really is just showing a mind wandering off into the never never much like a reindeer at the first sign of snow LOL

Tal-C Binding offtakes could have been signed without a permit (Vulcan another example).

Outside investment secured for Tal-Si could have been secured without a Vittangi permit if the technology was truly a game changer. Lots of examples where end users have taken a gamble and made investments based on the early test results and data they’ve seen. Practically every OEM has dished out cash. VW have been spraying billions around. Nothing ever comes Talga’s way though? Why?

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Tal-C Binding offtakes could have been signed without a permit (Vulcan another example).

What...............????????????????????????????????

Are you serious ?

Given the process has been about to go or before the Court's for years now that would have demonstrated a degree of arrogance and contempt for Swedish law which we really don't need

I have a feeling MT has binding offtakes gathering dust in his office. But as soon as he signs them it must be disclosed to the ASX. The availability of financing lends weight to that theory as no bank is going to lend you any money unless you can demonstrate that you will have customers

Talnode Si would have been qualified using Vittangi graphite. That's your answer

 

[curiousmagpie]

What...............????????????????????????????????

Are you serious ?

Given the process has been about to go or before the Court's for years now that would have demonstrated a degree of arrogance and contempt for Swedish law which we really don't need

Then why did the company announce an offtake with ACC that was due to become binding by 30 November 2022, when the environmental permit was still under review and didn't get granted for another 6 months? Forget about the SC final approval, there wasn't any kind of permit in place for either the mine or the refinery.
By your standards was Talga demonstrating a degree of arrogance and contempt for Swedish law by telling the market they would like to get that offtake binding before the permit was granted?

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Then why did the company announce an offtake with ACC that was due to become binding by 30 November 2022, when the environmental permit was still under review and didn't get granted for another 6 months? Forget about the SC final approval, there wasn't any kind of permit in place for either the mine or the refinery.
By your standards was Talga demonstrating a degree of arrogance expecting to get that offtake binding before the permit was granted?

Well obviously it was not "very binding" then

You are looking for reasons not to invest

Just Sell

 

[curiousmagpie]

Well obviously it was not "very binding" then

ACC wasn't announced as being subject to permits. Are you saying the company was being untruthful here?