Semmel
Regular
Hi Semmel,
I was happy to hear that you're now more encouraged by the recycling, having reviewed the pending patent - fingers crossed as it thus far appears like our tech could be very scalable.
Re your above points, I believe our customers are ready to help break that dam wall. ACC & Verkor very much appear to have a strong desire to use a local supply chain. So if they walked away from TLG, who will they use? In addition, pending offtakes certainly would've been vetted before any EIB finance was conditionally signed off, so any change with customers rescinding such pending deals would have a flow on effect and I'm very confident we shareholders would need to know about it. And don't forget, processes within the refinery are set to be customised for such customers, and expansions are on the back of their stated demand.
As far as pricing goes, I'm more optomistic than your $6k to $8k. If we were signing 12 month contracts maybe, but we're signing multi year, even decade long contracts. Short term Chinese based noise doesn't dictate those price discussions. The DFS guidance was for LOM, run off metrics without considering any future Chinese tariffs, battery passport demands or the recent anode restriction scare mongering by the Chinese. Its never been more clear that the supply chain needs to move away from China. There is the likely reality that many of Talgas nth hemisphere competitors cannot make a profit at $8k and those projects wouldn't go forward. ~$10k has been discussed in Nth America of late as being needed. And do t forget that the anode accounts for only around 10% of the cell cost. If it hasnt already, reality will soon kick in for OEM's and cell makers that they either pay the ex-China price or best of luck to them... It's hard to see all this right now, but revisit this in 2030, when FEOC and battery passports are the norm, the CRMA numbers are due, consumers are much more savvy as to where the car ingredients came from, and I'm confident the forest looks much more healthy for us all.
Hi DAH,
Yeah, the recycling doesnt look as bleak as it did in the past. I am definately more optimistic than in the past but not 100% convinced. Will need more hard evidence. But this will also come with time, I am sure.
As far as contracts go, I dont think the customers walked away for good. However, I dont think we have ink-ready contracts either (as Mark alluded). Once the SC makes a decision and it is positive for us, we will have to re-negotiate. My impression in the past is, that especially in Europe, companies are unable to make compelling EVs. Their last worry will be a china independent supply chain. They are fighting for survival or will be pretty soon. VW is just the first example because it is such a huge company that cant turn around easily. The only way we can persuade customers to take our product is if its cheaper than China imports. I dont think any other argument will be successful. ACC & Verkor are in the middle of this all as well. They dont seem to be full steam ahead either as it looked like a year ago. Do I remember correctly that Northvolt even delaying/canceling an entire factory? Not sure any more.. but it doesnt look like Europe is full steam ahead on EVs as a whole, or as necessary to preserve its market dominance on cars. Stationary storage is also a big market for us, but there performance is not as critical and its even more price sensitive than EVs.
My impression is that everything is tighter. And I give the 6 to 8 $/kg figure, to try to come to reality with the current macro environment. You make good arguments but I dont think either of us has a good insight or estimation on the real price target. I might be a bit more pessimistic, but this also sets me up for a heappy surprise if thats what happens.
On my way Dude!! 
