TLG Discussion 2022

[curiousmagpie]

Think of the reaction of the EU. Nice greatings top London

The EU won't do anything fast. Or anything at all. It would do more harm than good to the auto industry. And Germany won't want it because China trade is too important to them.

6% tariff doesn't move the needle, meaningless when they can still supply at under the cost base of most western competitors.
Musk and Tesla the very reason their suppliers (like Panasonic) are on 6% and a couple of minor players get token 700%. Whole thing is a farce. Lesson learned - don't pick a stock that goes up against China - you will lose.

 

[Gvan]

Not positive news for western graphite companies.
Tiny 6% duty on all but two minor players.
Syrah and Novonix reaction the clue.
Dear leader not tweeting about it—another clue about what he thinks of the news

Kaijin is not a minor player.

 

[curiousmagpie]

Kaijin is not a minor player.

collectively it's a minor part (10%?) of the chinese AAM production that has been levied at 700%. 5th biggest producer in as a token sacrifice but bigger players escaped. This means is the big 4 producers can sell AAM at current market prices without unfair gov subsidies, so how can anyone ex china compete? No one can give up their cheap china fix and no one is forcing it.

Would you agree these duties are going to be insignificant if not expanded to others?

The market was expecting more—Novonix down 15% yesterday

 

[Gvan]

collectively it's a minor part (10%?) of the chinese AAM production that has been levied at 700%. 5th biggest producer in as a token sacrifice but bigger players escaped. This means is the big 4 producers can sell AAM at current market prices without unfair gov subsidies, so how can anyone ex china compete? No one can give up their cheap china fix and no one is forcing it.

Would you agree these duties are going to be insignificant if not expanded to others?

The market was expecting more—Novonix down 15% yesterday

This is only the CVD investigation. There is also a second preliminary decision for the antidumping investigation, which is due in July.

Kaijin was hit hard because they did not comply with the investigation (AFA). If this decision sticks, they will effectively be eliminated from the US market. How significant is that? It’s hard to say without knowing exactly who Kaijin supplies. But for context, the U.S. imported just under 60,000 tonnes of anode material in 2023, according to Fastmarkets. Meanwhile, Kaijin began construction on its second phase that same year, aiming for 200,000 tons per year of output.

It would be foolish to think that a single measure could undo decades of advantage overnight. Going cold turkey isn’t realistic when there is such limited Western supply. However, there are other measures incoming that will gradually reduce reliance on Chinese materials. For the US, the FEOC tied to the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit will restrict the use of Chinese graphite by 2027. This is why we see companies like POSCO diversifying. In the EU, the Clean Industrial Deal will see local content requirements for batteries introduced this year. The Battery Passport, if left unchanged, will also have a negative effect on Chinese synthetic by 2028.

If you watch any EU conferences these days, you’ll notice the language and tone have shifted. Now it’s about future technologies, strategic autonomy, and defence. Between the Ukraine war exposing shortcomings and COVID, the world has changed and there is now an urgency to decouple from China. Some form of globalisation will continue to exist, but I think it’s foolish to think that the status quo will continue when there is so much evidence saying otherwise.

 

[cosors]

The EU won't do anything fast. Or anything at all. It would do more harm than good to the auto industry. And Germany won't want it because China trade is too important to them.

6% tariff doesn't move the needle, meaningless when they can still supply at under the cost base of most western competitors.
Musk and Tesla the very reason their suppliers (like Panasonic) are on 6% and a couple of minor players get token 700%. Whole thing is a farce. Lesson learned - don't pick a stock that goes up against China - you will lose.

Here's an article that should be right up your street.

I see it differently than the author of the article. For me, submission is not a solution.

"GT Voice: Inept ‘battle’ against Chinese battery materials will backfire on US firms
By Global Times"
Published: May 21, 2025 11:44 PM

GT Voice: Inept ‘battle’ against Chinese battery materials will backfire on US firms - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

 

[wilson]

This is only the CVD investigation. There is also a second preliminary decision for the antidumping investigation, which is due in July.

Kaijin was hit hard because they did not comply with the investigation (AFA). If this decision sticks, they will effectively be eliminated from the US market. How significant is that? It’s hard to say without knowing exactly who Kaijin supplies. But for context, the U.S. imported just under 60,000 tonnes of anode material in 2023, according to Fastmarkets. Meanwhile, Kaijin began construction on its second phase that same year, aiming for 200,000 tons per year of output.

It would be foolish to think that a single measure could undo decades of advantage overnight. Going cold turkey isn’t realistic when there is such limited Western supply. However, there are other measures incoming that will gradually reduce reliance on Chinese materials. For the US, the FEOC tied to the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit will restrict the use of Chinese graphite by 2027. This is why we see companies like POSCO diversifying. In the EU, the Clean Industrial Deal will see local content requirements for batteries introduced this year. The Battery Passport, if left unchanged, will also have a negative effect on Chinese synthetic by 2028.

If you watch any EU conferences these days, you’ll notice the language and tone have shifted. Now it’s about future technologies, strategic autonomy, and defence. Between the Ukraine war exposing shortcomings and COVID, the world has changed and there is now an urgency to decouple from China. Some form of globalisation will continue to exist, but I think it’s foolish to think that the status quo will continue when there is so much evidence saying otherwise.

I would have thought relatively significant, no? It is a large market

 

[wilson]

Pretty small raise in the scheme of things Semmel.. doesn't give more than a six month cash runway really. The company needs to maintain a margin of safety and comfort from a financial stand point. To me it indicates Talga is expecting company making announcements regarding everything we all know we're waiting on to occur within that time. Not a disaster, or anything to be too concerned about in my book.

Sometimes they are a necessary evil. I would rather maintain a margin of safety as opposed to the alternative. 12 months from now, hopefully the situation is different.

 

[cosors]

Here's an article that should be right up your street.

I see it differently than the author of the article. For me, submission is not a solution.

"GT Voice: Inept ‘battle’ against Chinese battery materials will backfire on US firms
By Global Times"
Published: May 21, 2025 11:44 PM

GT Voice: Inept ‘battle’ against Chinese battery materials will backfire on US firms - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

vs

Novonix Backs US Push for 721% Graphite Tariffs Against China

Novonix backs US graphite tariffs against China as North America races to secure critical battery material supply chains.

discoveryalert.com.au

"...European producers such as Talga Group and Nouveau Monde Graphite may also see increased interest from US battery manufacturers seeking tariff-free supply through free trade agreements.
..."

 

[Jamiesam]

vs

Novonix Backs US Push for 721% Graphite Tariffs Against China

Novonix backs US graphite tariffs against China as North America races to secure critical battery material supply chains.

discoveryalert.com.au

"...European producers such as Talga Group and Nouveau Monde Graphite may also see increased interest from US battery manufacturers seeking tariff-free supply through free trade agreements.
..."

Are tariffs expected to be a permanent thing though? Seems like they may be a tool used by US administration to get other countries to the negotiating table.

 

[Monkeymandan]

Beware of the glut of newcomers. Clearly not long and dropping by to sow doubt.

 

[curiousmagpie]

Beware of the glut of newcomers. Clearly not long and dropping by to sow doubt.

newcomers not necessary for that—company communications are enough

 

[DAH]

Beware of the glut of newcomers. Clearly not long and dropping by to sow doubt.

Beat me to it Dan. Both set up last night...

 

[cosors]

Beat me to it Dan. Both set up last night...

I noticed three new ones here in the groups yesterday alone.

 

[Jamiesam]

Beware of the glut of newcomers. Clearly not long and dropping by to sow doubt.

I am not here to sow any doubt. I suppose time will tell though.

 

[Jamiesam]

I noticed three new ones here in the groups yesterday alone.

I see you removed your response to me in the other thread when you were asking for a cheeky tip. My tip for WWI was a genuine one which I really do believe in. I hope you still look into it despite your suspicions of me.

I think in 3 to 6 months you will get your answer as to whether the tip was genuine or not.

 

[cosors]

I see you removed your response to me in the other thread when you were asking for a cheeky tip. My tip for WWI was a genuine one which I really do believe in. I hope you still look into it despite your suspicions of me.

I think in 3 to 6 months you will get your answer as to whether the tip was genuine or not.

Thanks for the info.
Don't get me wrong, many people are quite cautious here, regardless of the group. I think that comes with the ASX. This forum was founded for a good reason. The majority of people have been here from the start and know each other. It's even happened to me that I've been told off from a group here because I was thought to be a down-ramper. A weird example of mistrust.
Thanks again for your tip! Unfortunately, it's not for me. I've just looked it up and I can't buy the shares here.

 

[TanCA]

This is only the CVD investigation. There is also a second preliminary decision for the antidumping investigation, which is due in July.

Kaijin was hit hard because they did not comply with the investigation (AFA). If this decision sticks, they will effectively be eliminated from the US market. How significant is that? It’s hard to say without knowing exactly who Kaijin supplies. But for context, the U.S. imported just under 60,000 tonnes of anode material in 2023, according to Fastmarkets. Meanwhile, Kaijin began construction on its second phase that same year, aiming for 200,000 tons per year of output.

It would be foolish to think that a single measure could undo decades of advantage overnight. Going cold turkey isn’t realistic when there is such limited Western supply. However, there are other measures incoming that will gradually reduce reliance on Chinese materials. For the US, the FEOC tied to the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit will restrict the use of Chinese graphite by 2027. This is why we see companies like POSCO diversifying. In the EU, the Clean Industrial Deal will see local content requirements for batteries introduced this year. The Battery Passport, if left unchanged, will also have a negative effect on Chinese synthetic by 2028.

If you watch any EU conferences these days, you’ll notice the language and tone have shifted. Now it’s about future technologies, strategic autonomy, and defence. Between the Ukraine war exposing shortcomings and COVID, the world has changed and there is now an urgency to decouple from China. Some form of globalisation will continue to exist, but I think it’s foolish to think that the status quo will continue when there is so much evidence saying otherwise.

Decoupling from china is easier said than done though. What is your realistic timeframe?

 

[Jamiesam]

Thanks for the info.
Don't get me wrong, many people are quite cautious here, regardless of the group. I think that comes with the ASX. This forum was founded for a good reason. The majority of people have been here from the start and know each other. It's even happened to me that I've been told off from a group here because I was thought to be a down-ramper. A weird example of mistrust.
Thanks again for your tip! Unfortunately, it's not for me. I've just looked it up and I can't buy the shares here.

No worries. I understand.

 

[Jamiesam]

collectively it's a minor part (10%?) of the chinese AAM production that has been levied at 700%. 5th biggest producer in as a token sacrifice but bigger players escaped. This means is the big 4 producers can sell AAM at current market prices without unfair gov subsidies, so how can anyone ex china compete? No one can give up their cheap china fix and no one is forcing it.

Would you agree these duties are going to be insignificant if not expanded to others?

The market was expecting more—Novonix down 15% yesterday

The sums it up in my opinion. Hard to compete with China.

 

[Monkeymandan]

The sums it up in my opinion. Hard to compete with China.

So this stock isn’t for you buddy. Jog on and take your insight elsewhere.