TLG Discussion 2022

Think of the reaction of the EU. Nice greatings top London

The EU won't do anything fast. Or anything at all. It would do more harm than good to the auto industry. And Germany won't want it because China trade is too important to them.

6% tariff doesn't move the needle, meaningless when they can still supply at under the cost base of most western competitors.
Musk and Tesla the very reason their suppliers (like Panasonic) are on 6% and a couple of minor players get token 700%. Whole thing is a farce. Lesson learned - don't pick a stock that goes up against China - you will lose.
 

Gvan

Member
Not positive news for western graphite companies.
Tiny 6% duty on all but two minor players.
Syrah and Novonix reaction the clue.
Dear leader not tweeting about it—another clue about what he thinks of the news

Kaijin is not a minor player.
 
Kaijin is not a minor player.
collectively it's a minor part (10%?) of the chinese AAM production that has been levied at 700%. 5th biggest producer in as a token sacrifice but bigger players escaped. This means is the big 4 producers can sell AAM at current market prices without unfair gov subsidies, so how can anyone ex china compete? No one can give up their cheap china fix and no one is forcing it.

Would you agree these duties are going to be insignificant if not expanded to others?

The market was expecting more—Novonix down 15% yesterday
 
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Gvan

Member
collectively it's a minor part (10%?) of the chinese AAM production that has been levied at 700%. 5th biggest producer in as a token sacrifice but bigger players escaped. This means is the big 4 producers can sell AAM at current market prices without unfair gov subsidies, so how can anyone ex china compete? No one can give up their cheap china fix and no one is forcing it.

Would you agree these duties are going to be insignificant if not expanded to others?

The market was expecting more—Novonix down 15% yesterday

This is only the CVD investigation. There is also a second preliminary decision for the antidumping investigation, which is due in July.

Kaijin was hit hard because they did not comply with the investigation (AFA). If this decision sticks, they will effectively be eliminated from the US market. How significant is that? It’s hard to say without knowing exactly who Kaijin supplies. But for context, the U.S. imported just under 60,000 tonnes of anode material in 2023, according to Fastmarkets. Meanwhile, Kaijin began construction on its second phase that same year, aiming for 200,000 tons per year of output.

It would be foolish to think that a single measure could undo decades of advantage overnight. Going cold turkey isn’t realistic when there is such limited Western supply. However, there are other measures incoming that will gradually reduce reliance on Chinese materials. For the US, the FEOC tied to the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit will restrict the use of Chinese graphite by 2027. This is why we see companies like POSCO diversifying. In the EU, the Clean Industrial Deal will see local content requirements for batteries introduced this year. The Battery Passport, if left unchanged, will also have a negative effect on Chinese synthetic by 2028.

If you watch any EU conferences these days, you’ll notice the language and tone have shifted. Now it’s about future technologies, strategic autonomy, and defence. Between the Ukraine war exposing shortcomings and COVID, the world has changed and there is now an urgency to decouple from China. Some form of globalisation will continue to exist, but I think it’s foolish to think that the status quo will continue when there is so much evidence saying otherwise.
 
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cosors

👀
The EU won't do anything fast. Or anything at all. It would do more harm than good to the auto industry. And Germany won't want it because China trade is too important to them.

6% tariff doesn't move the needle, meaningless when they can still supply at under the cost base of most western competitors.
Musk and Tesla the very reason their suppliers (like Panasonic) are on 6% and a couple of minor players get token 700%. Whole thing is a farce. Lesson learned - don't pick a stock that goes up against China - you will lose.
Here's an article that should be right up your street.

I see it differently than the author of the article. For me, submission is not a solution.

"GT Voice: Inept ‘battle’ against Chinese battery materials will backfire on US firms
By Global Times"
Published: May 21, 2025 11:44 PM
 
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cosors

👀
Here's an article that should be right up your street.

I see it differently than the author of the article. For me, submission is not a solution.

"GT Voice: Inept ‘battle’ against Chinese battery materials will backfire on US firms
By Global Times"
Published: May 21, 2025 11:44 PM
vs
"...European producers such as Talga Group and Nouveau Monde Graphite may also see increased interest from US battery manufacturers seeking tariff-free supply through free trade agreements.
..."
 
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Monkeymandan

Regular
Beware of the glut of newcomers. Clearly not long and dropping by to sow doubt.
 
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Beware of the glut of newcomers. Clearly not long and dropping by to sow doubt.

newcomers not necessary for that—company communications are enough
 

DAH

Regular
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cosors

👀
Beat me to it Dan. Both set up last night...
I noticed three new ones here in the groups yesterday alone.
 
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cosors

👀
I see you removed your response to me in the other thread when you were asking for a cheeky tip. My tip for WWI was a genuine one which I really do believe in. I hope you still look into it despite your suspicions of me.

I think in 3 to 6 months you will get your answer as to whether the tip was genuine or not.
Thanks for the info.
Don't get me wrong, many people are quite cautious here, regardless of the group. I think that comes with the ASX. This forum was founded for a good reason. The majority of people have been here from the start and know each other. It's even happened to me that I've been told off from a group here because I was thought to be a down-ramper. A weird example of mistrust.
Thanks again for your tip! Unfortunately, it's not for me. I've just looked it up and I can't buy the shares here.
 
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Monkeymandan

Regular
The sums it up in my opinion. Hard to compete with China.
So this stock isn’t for you buddy. Jog on and take your insight elsewhere.
 
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Gvan

Member
Decoupling from china is easier said than done though. What is your realistic timeframe?

Critical Raw Materials Act​

Setting benchmarks by 2030 for domestic capacities​

The Act sets these benchmarks along the strategic raw materials value chain and for the diversification of the EU supplies

  • at least 10% of the EU’s annual consumption for extraction
  • at least 40% of the EU’s annual consumption for processing
  • at least 25% of the EU’s annual consumption for recycling
  • no more than 65% of the EU’s annual consumption from a single third country
 
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cosors

👀
MT likes this as others on LinkedIn:
8h ago

"Charles A.
CFO | 20 Years’ Experience | Mining & Resources | Capital Raising | ASX-listed | Project Finance | AI in Finance | Investor Relations | Critical Minerals | Africa-Australia | BFS/DFS

One thing more junior mining companies need to understand is that royalty and streaming deals can work—even if your commodity isn’t listed on a global exchange or lacks transparent spot pricing. You just have to structure it the right way.

If your project produces something like graphite, especially high-purity or battery-grade graphite, the lack of a clear benchmark doesn’t mean it’s unfundable—it just means you need to get smarter about how you link value.

One effective approach is to anchor the price not to fragmented or unreliable spot quotes, but to the end-use value of what your commodity enables. For example, if your graphite is being used in lithium-ion battery anodes for EVs or stationary energy storage, you can link your streaming terms to the future value of those battery-grade products or reference pricing from active anode material contracts. That reframes your material as strategic rather than obscure.

Tying your stream to an offtake agreement with a downstream processor or battery supply chain player also helps build confidence and transparency for the financier. If the commodity price is opaque, your internal costs and margins need to be rock solid—make sure your BFS or PFS provides a clear bottom-up cost structure. In many cases, a hybrid structure works best: a small royalty combined with a convertible note and equity injection can balance risk, preserve upside, and avoid over-dilution. You should also push for milestone-based tranches rather than one large upfront payment—this allows the funder to commit in phases, such as post-permitting, post-BFS, or after project mobilization, which reduces risk on both sides. But perhaps the most important point is this: don’t give away the farm just because your pricing isn’t transparent. Negotiate royalty pricing based on cost-plus formulas, offtake-linked benchmarks, or even downstream contract references—anything that gives both parties confidence in a fair deal. Done right, a royalty or stream can be a powerful tool to advance your project without gutting your cap table."


Screenshot_2025-05-27-18-31-10-83_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg




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Maybe this explains a bit the negotiantions.
 
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Strong backing from the Chairman as always

STINSON.png




he's now a holder of MASSIVE 232,000 shares. Accumulating an average 30,000 per year over his 8 yr tenure. Strong conviction!!!!!
 

Pharvest

Regular
Who fucken cares how many shares Stinson has you fucken goose. In other news Pentwater cleverly placing big bets on Talga.. but no one here seems interested?
 
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Semmel

Top 20
Who fucken cares how many shares Stinson has you fucken goose. In other news Pentwater cleverly placing big bets on Talga.. but no one here seems interested?
What kind of investors are pentwater? Do they just have shares for customers.. like a fund or are they an independent entity holding shares for the win? Do they do hostile takeover stuff? Would be hard to pull off with talga, given how illiquid the stock is, but you never know
 
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Monkeymandan

Regular
@Pharvest - brilliant hotcrapper post. Please share here if you have a moment. I’m with you. We’re on the brink..
 
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Monkeymandan

Regular
@Pharvest - brilliant hotcrapper post. Please share here if you have a moment. I’m with you. We’re on the brink..
And I would add to your list of catalysts - likely grant funding for the mine site, noting the existing €70m grant is specific to the refinery.

My guess is another €30m could be heading our way come in the next 1-2months, or to put it another way, about 30% of today’s market cap.
 
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cosors

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"Europe facing harsh truths about its position in the global critical minerals race
Mining companies and industry stakeholders are unanimous about the role of over-regulation holding back Europe’s critical minerals value chain.

May 30, 2025
1748634201080.jpeg

The EIT RawMaterials Summit gathered over 1,000 representatives from the European mining sector, technology developers and EU policymakers. Credit: Claire Jenns.
Frustrations were high at a perceived lack of progress in securing Europe’s critical mineral value chains during the EIT RawMaterials Summit, held in Brussels from 13 to 15 May.

Over 1,000 representatives from the European mining sector, technology developers and EU policymakers gathered to deliberate the continent’s comparative stagnancy against its global competitors in securing critical raw materials (CRMs).

In his opening speech, EIT RawMaterials CEO Bernd Schäfer introduced the event’s theme ‘Race to 2030’, noting the countdown of fewer than 1,300 working days to reach the targets set by the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA).

The CRMA was one of the fastest laws to ever be adopted in the EU, from its proposal in March 2023 to its implementation in May 2024. Just under a year later in March 2025, the European Commission (EC) adopted a list of 47 strategic projects under the CRMA in a major step towards enhancing domestic raw material capacities.

Schäfer told attendees that “Europe has been asleep at the wheel. This is a race for resilience, technology, and industrial survival. It is a race we cannot afford to lose as we meet at a moment of global turbulence.”

Europe’s competitiveness and the need for urgency were underscored by speakers in almost every session across the summit’s agenda, and for good reason. The continent has between 80-100% import dependency on a range of critical minerals, creating extreme supply chain vulnerability amid an already heated geopolitical climate.

Schäfer highlighted the Russia-Ukraine conflict, disruptions in the Red Sea and escalations between India and Pakistan as key examples exacerbating supply chain fragility. Indeed, GlobalData’s ESG Sentiment Polls Q1 2025 survey found that geopolitical conflict has topped business concerns for first time in years.

“Meanwhile, the US, China, Japan and others are out-subsidising and outpacing us [Europe] in extraction, processing, innovation and control of strategic vehicles,” warned Schäfer. “This is no longer about market competition. It is about political leverage and security and that is why we cannot treat raw materials as a niche sector.”

China was an invisible presence at the summit, with its dominance over critical minerals and rare earth elements (REEs) underscored by many speakers. In the session ‘Geopolitical Dynamics in Securing Europe’s Defence Supply Chains’ on 14 May, director of DG Grow Joaquim Nunes de Almeida highlighted vulnerability in the graphite market, as 77% of all production and 97% of global anode output is controlled by China.

“We have 11 strategic projects on graphite, most of which, in order to be viable or bankable, have to show that they are competitive vis-a-vis the Chinese price, as this is what makes the market. What if China, once these projects start coming to fruition, floods the market with enormous amounts of graphite and tries to kill our projects?” de Almeida speculated.

Atlantic Copper CEO Macarena Gutiérrez echoed this concern within the metals sector in an interview with Mining Technology. “We are competing with the rest of the world, but mainly China, which has been growing in spending capacity for the last 25 years. We need to make sure we have access to primary concentrate in Europe and in a competitive way.”

But with the need for acceleration identified, what has been the cause of Europe’s slow-moving critical minerals development thus far?

Over-regulation and barriers to financing
It is widely acknowledged that the regulatory landscape in Europe is complex, being split between the EC, Council of the European Union, and the European Parliament, all with evolving policies and targets.

But the effects of this on CRM development are only now being recognised, particularly in limiting access to financing.

Allard Castelein, special representative for raw materials strategy at Netherlands’ Ministry of Economic Affairs, identified a disconnect between public and private partners as a key barrier to accelerating CRM projects. “This is a market situation that has emerged over a period of 35 or so years. My worry is that the urgency does not resonate with the governments and politicians, and there is no incentive for the private sector as there aren’t enough rules and regulations.”

The 47 strategic projects under the CRMA are funded by public and private sources, from financial institutions to regional and member state funds.

European Investment Bank (EIB) vice-president Nicola Beer pointed out that supportive partnerships are one of Europe’s strengths. “EIB, with its big balance sheet, has the possibility to be a patient financial partner. So we can provide risk mitigation through longstanding loans or other guaranteed financial products.”

During a panel titled CRMA Recycling Target: On Track or at Risk? on 15 May, European Aluminium director-general Paul Voss voiced one of the industry’s main frustrations with the Act: “There’s not really any money there. You hear a lot of unflattering comparisons with the US’ Inflation Reduction Act and how they pour money into problems while the EU tends to try and regulate problems.

“Money to help businesses and finance innovation progress in the sector would be useful,” he added.

Bureaucratic red tape vs. accelerating European CRMs​

The prevailing message among attendees was that there are too many cooks in the kitchen holding back the rapid domestic exploration, extraction and production of CRMs that Europe desperately needs.

“We cannot have 10 years to get the permitting and development of a project,” Saft CEO Cedric Duclos stated. “Stop sprinkling money all around and pick the winners, because otherwise we disperse the effort and we are not going to build a resilient value chain. Stop over-regulating the industry to death, because this is what drags us down today.”

Also in attendance was Savannah Resources, which is developing the Barroso lithium project in Portugal that has been designated as a strategic project under the CRMA. Company CEO Emanuel Proença told Mining Technology that it “certainly took us a while to get our project fully licensed and it is true that Europe needs to be more pragmatic.

“But, policymakers and politicians are far more aware today that their role is to ensure there is an acceleration of the mining industry and that excess bureaucracy is taken out of the way,” he said.

Under the CRMA, permit-granting for extraction projects is capped at 27 months and strategic projects at two years. Only time will tell as to what impacts this will have on Europe’s CRM reserves and mining industry profits.

But not all businesses in the sector are wholly disadvantaged by over-regulation. Ella Cullen, CEO of Minespider, a supply chain traceability solutions provider, sees both sides of the picture. The company benefits from assisting miners operating in Europe with regulatory compliance but also faces challenges as a start-up.

“When applying for grants for example, the amount of paperwork and bureaucracy is undeniably monstrous,” she explained. “But the world looks to Europe for regulation and this builds trust, particularly as the public perception of the mining industry needs to improve.”

Frédéric Carencotte, founder of French REE recycling and refining company Carester, was also positive about the state of Europe’s regulatory landscape in his conversation with Mining Technology. “The CRMA provides objectives and direction and we have experienced the benefits of this firsthand.”

In March, Carester secured €216m ($245m) from the French government and Japanese investors for its rare earth recycling and refining industrial facility Caremag, in alignment with the CRMA’s directive for 25% of the EU’s annual demand to be met through recycling.

The EC has stated that it will announce a new call for strategic project applications by the end of summer 2025, opening the door for developers looking to access the financial support and exposure provided by the Act for projects that will be operational beyond 2030.

European critical minerals at a crossroads​

While industry players agree that the CRMA’s 2030 targets are out of reach, the Act has set an example of what can be achieved when the EU consolidates its efforts towards shared goals and lessens its bureaucratic rigidity.

In a promising sign of an upward trajectory, the EU’s Competitiveness Compass economic roadmap has signposted the implementation of a joint purchasing platform for CRMs by the third quarter of 2025, to identify the needs of EU industries, aggregate demand, and coordinate joint purchases.

To continue developing new mining projects, Castelein was firm in urging the industry and governments not to hold back due to a lack of data or public approval in an “analysis paralysis situation [as] we do not have the time.”

Member of the European Parliament Hildegard Bentele emphasised that projects that will become operational after 2030 should also be brought into the support offered by the CRMA. “There are not many European mining companies around as we phased out our mining sector for 30 years. It is not an easy thing to rebuild but this shouldn’t be demotivating. It is Europe’s obligation.” "


They know exactly what it's all about and put the pressure on.

____
We are far from alone with our knowledge. Now it's all about the good of society and the ball WE are living on, as opposed to individual interests.
 
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