collectively it's a minor part (10%?) of the chinese AAM production that has been levied at 700%. 5th biggest producer in as a token sacrifice but bigger players escaped. This means is the big 4 producers can sell AAM at current market prices without unfair gov subsidies, so how can anyone ex china compete? No one can give up their cheap china fix and no one is forcing it.
Would you agree these duties are going to be insignificant if not expanded to others?
The market was expecting more—Novonix down 15% yesterday
This is only the CVD investigation. There is also a second preliminary decision for the antidumping investigation, which is due in July.
Kaijin was hit hard because they did not comply with the investigation (AFA). If this decision sticks, they will effectively be eliminated from the US market. How significant is that? It’s hard to say without knowing exactly who Kaijin supplies. But for context, the U.S. imported just under 60,000 tonnes of anode material in 2023, according to Fastmarkets. Meanwhile, Kaijin began construction on its second phase that same year, aiming for 200,000 tons per year of output.
It would be foolish to think that a single measure could undo decades of advantage overnight. Going cold turkey isn’t realistic when there is such limited Western supply. However, there are other measures incoming that will gradually reduce reliance on Chinese materials. For the US, the FEOC tied to the $7,500 IRA EV tax credit will restrict the use of Chinese graphite by 2027. This is why we see companies like POSCO diversifying. In the EU, the Clean Industrial Deal will see local content requirements for batteries introduced this year. The Battery Passport, if left unchanged, will also have a negative effect on Chinese synthetic by 2028.
If you watch any EU conferences these days, you’ll notice the language and tone have shifted. Now it’s about future technologies, strategic autonomy, and defence. Between the Ukraine war exposing shortcomings and COVID, the world has changed and there is now an urgency to decouple from China. Some form of globalisation will continue to exist, but I think it’s foolish to think that the status quo will continue when there is so much evidence saying otherwise.
