TLG Discussion 2022

Semmel · Dec 12, 2023

Semmel said:
There is no reason why TLG should be this cheep. These were the second cheapest shares I bought ever. Thanks market, I hope there is no hidden trapdoor under the carpet

Guess the rug got pulled revealing... A slide into the cellar! It seems I bought in too early. Ohh well ..

guess I am sitting out the depths of the valley.

Just a reminder that fundamentals of Talga have not changed the last weeks. If anything, it has improved with the export rules from china. This share price action is all market shenanigans. That's why I bought more. Now is the time to buy if you believe in the company. As painful as this may look for holders. I would love to see an argument that counters this and is not based on the current share price. Please someone challenge my view as I seem to not be able to challenge the investment thesis.

DAH · Dec 12, 2023

Semmel said:
Guess the rug got pulled revealing... A slide into the cellar! It seems I bought in too early. Ohh well .. guess I am sitting out the depths of the valley.

Just a reminder that fundamentals of Talga have not changed the last weeks. If anything, it has improved with the export rules from china. This share price action is all market shenanigans. That's why I bought more. Now is the time to buy if you believe in the company. As painful as this may look for holders. I would love to see an argument that counters this and is not based on the current share price. Please someone challenge my view as I seem to not be able to challenge the investment thesis.

Totally agree Semmel. I'm surprised these "shenanigans" have ruffled the feathers of so many. It's a good time to enjoy Xmas and hope Santa leaves a nice little rejection under someone's tree

BlackBeak · Dec 13, 2023

I just sold my investment property to invest more, can’t believe my luck with this drop in share price!!! I’m just buying parcels every couple of days, you can’t pick the bottom.

There’s been no change in fundamentals except a minor dilution from the SPP, CRM being voted on successfully, China imposing restrictions on graphite and everyday we get closer to the Supreme Court rejection of appeals.

I see the biggest risks being:
- takeover target the cheaper we get. Why spend lots on a contract for graphite when you could buy the entire company for not much more?
- broader market turbulence, which again you can’t pick when/if it will happen, and you’ll be screwed no matter where your money is at

mpk1980 · Dec 13, 2023

BlackBeak said:
I just sold my investment property to invest more, can’t believe my luck with this drop in share price!!! I’m just buying parcels every couple of days, you can’t pick the bottom.

There’s been no change in fundamentals except a minor dilution from the SPP, CRM being voted on successfully, China imposing restrictions on graphite and everyday we get closer to the Supreme Court rejection of appeals.

I see the biggest risks being:
- takeover target the cheaper we get. Why spend lots on a contract for graphite when you could buy the entire company for not much more?
- broader market turbulence, which again you can’t pick when/if it will happen, and you’ll be screwed no matter where your money is at

I also couldn't of imagined we'd be at these levels! They say life changing opportunities is all about timing....

You'd have to think that the board has taken some measures to ensure full value will be realised if a takeover were were to happen? I mean at the end of the day everyone has a price right?

Also, could the state funding that's due our way also have measures in place to stop an unwanted takeover (lets say Chinese interests) using something equivalent to the Foreign Investment Review board (FIRB) in Sweden/Europe ? Not a good look if a strategic deposit falls into foreign ownership is it? But I don't know how this could even work given Talga AB is probably where the funding will be allocated to and Talga Group is domiciled in Aust.

WheresTheMonkey · Dec 13, 2023

Semmel said:
Guess the rug got pulled revealing... A slide into the cellar! It seems I bought in too early. Ohh well .. guess I am sitting out the depths of the valley.

Just a reminder that fundamentals of Talga have not changed the last weeks. If anything, it has improved with the export rules from china. This share price action is all market shenanigans. That's why I bought more. Now is the time to buy if you believe in the company. As painful as this may look for holders. I would love to see an argument that counters this and is not based on the current share price. Please someone challenge my view as I seem to not be able to challenge the investment thesis.

How about the fact Bell Potter assumed a cap raise of 262M @ A$1.35 to raise A$354M. Now we know MT is against a raise of that size but even if he cuts the the equity funding back to 80/20 Debt to Equity we still have a long way to go to get back to a justifiable SPP of A$1.35.

I don't think the permit decision is going to take us there as even in April the temporary spike was from around $1.50 to $1.95 (the equivalent of an increase today of A$0.77 to A$1.01.) Don't forget Market Sentiment around battery stocks is in the toilet compared to April

So we are really reliant on a couple very nice offtakes.

Bell Potter used US$12,295 to get to their A$2.50 valuation and used US$9,000 to get to A$1.29

Then again note from the Bell Potter report page 4

High-grade synthetic graphite prices (which feed into top tier European EV’s) are forecasted by Benchmark Minerals Intelligence to reach US$20,000/t by 2025............................................

Do we really believe that figure ?

Anyway how about a 5 year offtake for 5,000tpa @US$10,000 ? That would raise A$403M @$0.62 forex over 5 years.

Or some combination like (a longer duration at a lower tonnage) that to get to A$354M

BigDog · Dec 13, 2023

With regard to the talk around Talga becoming a “take over target” at these low levels, yes, I suppose there would be interested parties out there, however let’s not forget the entire battery sector is down so many other targets also out there for the vultures to try and pillage.

Of the 380m shares on issue there would be a fair wack (the majority) that are held tightly by those that see the long term value and want to realize that value.

Let’s not forget MT has stated many times his goal is for TLG to be paying us all dividends. I’m sure the entire Board feel the same way along with the “vast majority” of shareholders that will sit tight and not let a takeover occur.

Sure we all have a price but that price is many multiples above what we are at today. Even a doubling of shares on issue (which won’t happen) would not be the end of the world with what is to come once the appeals are dismissed.

Is that price $2 a share for a takeover, absolutely f#^king not. Is it $4? Still not a chance in the world. For mine double digits might sway many but that is not going to happen in the near future.

But, what do I know? Sweet FA perhaps.

Sit tight and buy up if you have the funds otherwise best to take a break until end of Jan to mid Feb and see where things are at once appeals are squashed.

DAH · Dec 13, 2023

There's been a lot more chat of late on the forums re a cap raise to address the equity component for stage 1. I know the brokers run their numbers on such playing out but we need to remember that's what they do with their often narrow scope IMO.

I honestly have never recalled MT or any comms coming out that has suggested we'd be raising this capital via issuing Talga shares. MT on the most recent webinar stated many avenues were being assessed and I don't recall equity/shares being one (yes "project" [not company]).

And from memory the great post on HC summarising the AGM quoted MT as saying "over my dead body" referencing using company equity to address the 40%. I can only imagine there is a LOT of talk about possibilities re funding, and the risk in my mind is needing to execute on funding before such talk becomes actionable. Then perhaps shares need to be considered.

I reckon MT would sooner run naked around Luleå in the snow before giving away chunks of his baby for peanuts (and I'd join him!). So what am I missing here? Genuine question for the brains trust

Cheers.

Semmel · Dec 13, 2023

DAH said:
There's been a lot more chat of late on the forums re a cap raise to address the equity component for stage 1. I know the brokers run their numbers on such playing out but we need to remember that's what they do with their often narrow scope IMO.

I honestly have never recalled MT or any comms coming out that has suggested we'd be raising this capital via issuing Talga shares. MT on the most recent webinar stated many avenues were being assessed and I don't recall equity/shares being one (yes "project" [not company]).

And from memory the great post on HC summarising the AGM quoted MT as saying "over my dead body" referencing using company equity to address the 40%. I can only imagine there is a LOT of talk about possibilities re funding, and the risk in my mind is needing to execute on funding before such talk becomes actionable. Then perhaps shares need to be considered.

I reckon MT would sooner run naked around Luleå in the snow before giving away chunks of his baby for peanuts (and I'd join him!). So what am I missing here? Genuine question for the brains trust

Cheers.

Totally agree. The share price acts as if the company is sold off like that. Venture funds have heard that probably quite often .. alternative avenues of funding, etc .. and then in the end it's company equity. In this instance, we only have MTs word for it and I can't fault the funds from not believing a word from MT. If the choice is between failing the company and selling stock, you sell stock.

Personally, I don't believe that will happen. I think MT is very trustworthy. But the funds don't know that.

WheresTheMonkey · Dec 14, 2023

DAH said:
There's been a lot more chat of late on the forums re a cap raise to address the equity component for stage 1. I know the brokers run their numbers on such playing out but we need to remember that's what they do with their often narrow scope IMO.

I honestly have never recalled MT or any comms coming out that has suggested we'd be raising this capital via issuing Talga shares. MT on the most recent webinar stated many avenues were being assessed and I don't recall equity/shares being one (yes "project" [not company]).

And from memory the great post on HC summarising the AGM quoted MT as saying "over my dead body" referencing using company equity to address the 40%. I can only imagine there is a LOT of talk about possibilities re funding, and the risk in my mind is needing to execute on funding before such talk becomes actionable. Then perhaps shares need to be considered.

I reckon MT would sooner run naked around Luleå in the snow before giving away chunks of his baby for peanuts (and I'd join him!). So what am I missing here? Genuine question for the brains trust

Cheers.

I like your thinking @DAH. I guess I am one of the guilty ones assuming an equity raise. If there are other avenues available in Europe I am sure/hope that MT and Melissa our CFO are all over it.

Perhaps Eva the new appointee to Talga AB might have a contact or two ?

curiousmagpie · Dec 14, 2023

I would say there's close to zero chance that there will be no equity raise via issue of new Talga shares.

The question is only how much. The reasons for targeting mostly project equity is clear. It can minimise dilution of Niska+ and Tal-Si.

At the moment though the company is unfortunately not in a strong position to be dictating terms of how they raise money. News from the courts before xmas would be nice to put a bottom in for this current value destruction.

DAH · Dec 14, 2023

curiousmagpie said:
I would say there's close to zero chance that there will be no equity raise via issue of new Talga shares.

The question is only how much. The reasons for targeting mostly project equity is clear. It can minimise dilution of Niska+ and Tal-Si.

At the moment though the company is unfortunately not in a strong position to be dictating terms of how they raise money. News from the courts before xmas would be nice to put a bottom in for this current value destruction.

Yeah you might be right, but to my knowledge nothing thus far suggests that's the game plan. We know there's more debt available, we can also assume we knocked back Mitsui and LKAB as offering equity was no longer in our best interests. There's old talk re customer/s as cornerstone investors, and who knows what's behind the "state aid" door.

Share price aside, I actually think we're in a strong negotiating position. The graphite price is what it is (I think longer term for the EU it will decouple from China), but any future stakeholder trying to use short term low prices for leverage for a long term stake is naive IMO. Any auto or cell maker not wanting to diversify away from Chinese supply is nuts!

WheresTheMonkey · Dec 14, 2023

curiousmagpie said:
I would say there's close to zero chance that there will be no equity raise via issue of new Talga shares.

DAH said:
Share price aside, I actually think we're in a strong negotiating position. The graphite price is what it is (I think longer term for the EU it will decouple from China), but any future stakeholder trying to use short term low prices for leverage for a long term stake is naive IMO. Any auto or cell maker not wanting to diversify away from Chinese supply is nuts!

There is also the possibility of a Debt/Equity Hybrid in the form of a Convertible Note dated say 5 years (pick a number) hence.

WheresTheMonkey · Dec 15, 2023

OK so the Chinese regulations are now in place

China Issues First Graphite Export Permits Following Regulatory Revision

On Thursday, December 14, China's commerce ministry announced the approval of several export permits for graphite.

www.chemanalyst.com

China Issues First Graphite Export Permits Following Regulatory Revision

14-Dec-2023 5:53 PM
Journalist: Francis Stokes

On Thursday, December 14, China's commerce ministry announced the approval of several export permits for graphite. This development marks the first such approvals since the implementation of new regulations on December 1, aimed at safeguarding national security.
Spokeswoman Shu Jueting, during a regular press briefing, stated that the ministry has sanctioned "several" applications from firms meeting the pertinent prerequisites.

China, being the world's leading producer and exporter of graphite, initiated the requirement for additional export permits for various graphite products this month. This move has sparked concerns about potential tightening in the global supply of this material, extensively used in refractories and batteries.

In addition to graphite, Beijing also imposed export licenses on chip-making metals gallium and germanium starting August 1. This move led to a significant drop in shipments in August and September, until the first approvals were granted towards the end of September.

China had previously enforced temporary export controls on certain types of graphite, such as graphite flake and spherical graphite, since 2016. An analyst suggested that these pre-existing measures might have facilitated the implementation of the new graphite regulations.

Graphite is exported in significant quantities to countries like the US, Japan, and South Korea. These recent developments in export regulations reflect China's strategic efforts to control the export of crucial materials, underscoring the nation's focus on protecting its national security interests.

The approval of several export permits indicates a proactive response from companies to adhere to the new rules. However, the impact of these regulations is yet to be fully seen, particularly in terms of global graphite supply and the potential ripple effects on industries that heavily rely on this material.

The tightening of controls over the export of key materials like graphite, gallium, and germanium underscores China's strategic approach to managing its resources. It highlights the country's intent to maintain a firm grip on the supply of crucial materials, which forms an integral part of its national security strategy.

These developments serve as a crucial reminder for countries and industries worldwide about the potential vulnerabilities in their supply chains. As the world's leading producer and exporter of graphite, China's regulatory changes could significantly impact global markets and industries, particularly those heavily reliant on this material.

In conclusion, China's recent approval of several export permits for graphite, following the implementation of new regulations, marks a significant development in the global graphite market. The move underlines China's strategic focus on protecting its national security interests, while also potentially reshaping the dynamics of the global supply of this crucial material. It remains to be seen how these changes will unfold in the coming months and what implications they might have on industries across the globe.

cosors · Dec 15, 2023

WheresTheMonkey said:
OK so the Chinese regulations are now in place

China Issues First Graphite Export Permits Following Regulatory Revision

On Thursday, December 14, China's commerce ministry announced the approval of several export permits for graphite.

www.chemanalyst.com

China Issues First Graphite Export Permits Following Regulatory Revision

14-Dec-2023 5:53 PM

Journalist: Francis Stokes

On Thursday, December 14, China's commerce ministry announced the approval of several export permits for graphite. This development marks the first such approvals since the implementation of new regulations on December 1, aimed at safeguarding national security.
Spokeswoman Shu Jueting, during a regular press briefing, stated that the ministry has sanctioned "several" applications from firms meeting the pertinent prerequisites.

China, being the world's leading producer and exporter of graphite, initiated the requirement for additional export permits for various graphite products this month. This move has sparked concerns about potential tightening in the global supply of this material, extensively used in refractories and batteries.

In addition to graphite, Beijing also imposed export licenses on chip-making metals gallium and germanium starting August 1. This move led to a significant drop in shipments in August and September, until the first approvals were granted towards the end of September.

China had previously enforced temporary export controls on certain types of graphite, such as graphite flake and spherical graphite, since 2016. An analyst suggested that these pre-existing measures might have facilitated the implementation of the new graphite regulations.

Graphite is exported in significant quantities to countries like the US, Japan, and South Korea. These recent developments in export regulations reflect China's strategic efforts to control the export of crucial materials, underscoring the nation's focus on protecting its national security interests.

The approval of several export permits indicates a proactive response from companies to adhere to the new rules. However, the impact of these regulations is yet to be fully seen, particularly in terms of global graphite supply and the potential ripple effects on industries that heavily rely on this material.

The tightening of controls over the export of key materials like graphite, gallium, and germanium underscores China's strategic approach to managing its resources. It highlights the country's intent to maintain a firm grip on the supply of crucial materials, which forms an integral part of its national security strategy.

These developments serve as a crucial reminder for countries and industries worldwide about the potential vulnerabilities in their supply chains. As the world's leading producer and exporter of graphite, China's regulatory changes could significantly impact global markets and industries, particularly those heavily reliant on this material.

In conclusion, China's recent approval of several export permits for graphite, following the implementation of new regulations, marks a significant development in the global graphite market. The move underlines China's strategic focus on protecting its national security interests, while also potentially reshaping the dynamics of the global supply of this crucial material. It remains to be seen how these changes will unfold in the coming months and what implications they might have on industries across the globe.

I just say mushrooms and meat.)
...and have a nice weekend!

Semmel · Dec 15, 2023

The Chinese with their legislation are like installing a lock into a door of graphite trade that didn't have a lock before. The door is still open but can be locked and time now.

curiousmagpie · Dec 15, 2023

anyone got any good copium because I’m all out

and anyone got a decent theory on what’s happened to the share price since close of SPP?

Gero · Dec 15, 2023

curiousmagpie said:
anyone got any good copium because I’m all out

and anyone got a decent theory on what’s happened to the share price since close of SPP?

Hi All

Asking around some brokers, the word on the street is that our largest shareholder, Kinetic Investment Partners, Fund was closed down some time in the last 4-6 weeks and the assets are currently being liquidated.

I have been searching for some news but as yet not found anything.

Their website is no longer available, and their phone is disconnected, so it doesn't look good.

According to the last Webinar presentation they held 4.7% ~17M shares.

I don't know how much more they have to dispose of.

Gero

curiousmagpie · Dec 15, 2023

Gero said:
Hi All

Asking around some brokers, the word on the street is that our largest shareholder, Kinetic Investment Partners, Fund was closed down some time in the last 4-6 weeks and the assets are currently being liquidated.

I have been searching for some news but as yet not found anything.

Their website is no longer available, and their phone is disconnected, so it doesn't look good.

According to the last Webinar presentation they held 4.7% ~17M shares.

I don't know how much more they have to dispose of.

Gero

Thanks, I suspected it had to be a large holder selling down given the volumes. And there aren’t many large holders so this makes sense.

curiousmagpie · Dec 15, 2023

On one hand it’s good to know there’s a potential end to the selling on the horizon.

On the other hand shame there wasn’t anyone ready to step up to take a block trade for the lot even at 80-90c.

I’ll see if I can get hold of some broker data and have a look at how many they might still have to go. My hope would be todays big volume at the closing auction is the last of it…..

cosors · Dec 15, 2023

Gero said:
Hi All

Asking around some brokers, the word on the street is that our largest shareholder, Kinetic Investment Partners, Fund was closed down some time in the last 4-6 weeks and the assets are currently being liquidated.

I have been searching for some news but as yet not found anything.

Their website is no longer available, and their phone is disconnected, so it doesn't look good.

According to the last Webinar presentation they held 4.7% ~17M shares.

I don't know how much more they have to dispose of.

Gero

I can't find them or am I missing something or are they hiding behind someone (Nominee)?

Maybe they'll jump on board.

I would be delighted if you would comment on this: