TLG Discussion 2022

Proga

Regular
Interesting take. Though I don't necessarily agree. Europe's interest is to get independence from china on as much resources as possible. Because they know they might get hosed if china eventually decides to invade Taiwan and trade gets interrupted. It's not gonna happen over night but i expect Europe to do whatever possible to mine Graphite and many other minerals locally, as well as ramp up synthetic production. Also, the power grid is in shambles at least in Europe. It's still working reasonably well but if we lose hydro, nuclear and coal all at once due to heat in the summer, it's gonna get tough. The answer is obviously renewables. There will be enough lobbying power to push fossil fuels wherever possible but it's a losing battle. You can only fight against a tsunami of change for so long. Especially as solar and wind plus batteries becomes cheaper than coal, oil and nuclear even with subsidies (for the fossils and nuclear, not for the renewables). It's not gonna take 20 years.

For Talges success, a lot of capacity is build for the current technology. New battery chemistry might evolve but it's not going to be fast and will not replace the graphite industry, new tech is gonna be added on top. Talges will be producing carbon anode in the order of 2 to 3 mtpa eventually (past 2030). It's going to be sublimented by silicon additives, which reduces the amount of necessary material, making the product cheaper and use less material. Increasing the reach of the ressource. EU will support synthetic anode production as well. We might still import stuff from china and elsewhere due to trade agreements but we will not be dependent on it like we are today.
I think you're confused. There is no way TLG can produce 2 to 3 mtpa. It simply doesn't have the resource. In the TLG webinar presentation on the 3rd of August, TLG says contained graphite totals 12mt (page 14) or a 4.5yr mine life on your 3 mtpa at 95% purity. The cost to build the mine and the processing plant to produce 3 mtpa would cost more than what the graphite is worth. ROI is measured in 7-10yrs. What they actual want to do is expand mining from 2025/26 to 104Ktpa (p27). 30x less than 3 mpta. Or are you talking about how much dirt they mine not the contained graphite the mine produces. Either way they can't produce either at 2 to 3 mtpa. SYR can currently mine 2.1 mtpa of dirt per year to produce 350ktpa of 96% contained graphite. Plans are underway to expand their Balama mine as well. They just received US$102m from the Department of Energy to expand their AAM plant at Vidalia from a pilot plant into commercial operations. The ground work has been completed.

When you produce graphite granules (precursor) to produce AAM, you lose 40% of the graphite flake in the milling to grind down the flake to the size you want to put in the battery after being coated. TLG thinks it can turn the dust/powder off cut into graphene. That would be useful.

You are also confusing the power grid with power generation. The grid is the poles and wires to get the generated power to businesses and homes. Both are in a shamble. Trillions will need to be spent on the grid globally just to get the power to the EV's to recharge them. That's a given. You say power generation is in a shambles but the next breath you point out the EU wants to produce power hungry synthetic. It will only be in very limited quantities for national security reasons.

Apart from VW which uses 100% synthetic, all other vehicles use around 50% natural and 50% synthetic. The silicon additives have the same properties as synthetic so it will reduce the amount of synthetic required not natural.

In the presentation on page 9 they produced a pie chart showing Mozambique currently mines 14% of global graphite. 90-95% is from SYR operating at 30% of total current capacity. You should find time to read TLG's presentations. They're full of interesting information.
 
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I think you're confused. There is no way TLG can produce 2 to 3 mtpa. It simply doesn't have the resource. In the TLG webinar presentation on the 3rd of August, TLG says contained graphite totals 12mt (page 14) or a 4.5yr mine life on your 3 mtpa at 95% purity. The cost to build the mine and the processing plant to produce 3 mtpa would cost more than what the graphite is worth. ROI is measured in 7-10yrs. What they actual want to do is expand mining from 2025/26 to 104Ktpa (p27). 30x less than 3 mpta. Or are you talking about how much dirt they mine not the contained graphite the mine produces. Either way they can't produce either at 2 to 3 mtpa. SYR can currently mine 2.1 mtpa of dirt per year to produce 350ktpa of 96% contained graphite. Plans are underway to expand their Balama mine as well. They just received US$102m from the Department of Energy to expand their AAM plant at Vidalia from a pilot plant into commercial operations. The ground work has been completed.

When you produce graphite granules (precursor) to produce AAM, you lose 40% of the graphite flake in the milling to grind down the flake to the size you want to put in the battery after being coated. TLG thinks it can turn the dust/powder off cut into graphene. That would be useful.

You are also confusing the power grid with power generation. The grid is the poles and wires to get the generated power to businesses and homes. Both are in a shamble. Trillions will need to be spent on the grid globally just to get the power to the EV's to recharge them. That's a given. You say power generation is in a shambles but the next breath you point out the EU wants to produce power hungry synthetic. It will only be in very limited quantities for national security reasons.

Apart from VW which uses 100% synthetic, all other vehicles use around 50% natural and 50% synthetic. The silicon additives have the same properties as synthetic so it will reduce the amount of synthetic required not natural.

In the presentation on page 9 they produced a pie chart showing Mozambique currently mines 14% of global graphite. 90-95% is from SYR operating at 30% of total current capacity. You should find time to read TLG's presentations. They're full of interesting information.
I think Semmel might be relying on this from the various presentations including the most recent (Page 16 of the latest presentation)

Talga is in the process of expanding its Vittangi Graphite Resource and has defined a JORC Exploration Target approximately 6-7 times larger (170 - 200 million tonnes at 20 - 30% graphite)1 yet to be drilled out
 
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Proga

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I think Semmel might be relying on this from the various presentations including the most recent (Page 16 of the latest presentation)

Talga is in the process of expanding its Vittangi Graphite Resource and has defined a JORC Exploration Target approximately 6-7 times larger (170 - 200 million tonnes at 20 - 30% graphite)1 yet to be drilled out
I saw that in the report but it is conceptual, pie in the sky stuff which makes for good reading. Read the fine print under it. They go onto say they are uncertain if further exploration will result in the estimation of a Mineral Resource. They have no idea of the grade. I wouldn't be making any investments decisions or predictions based on it. And all it will do is extend the mine life not the amount produced each year. A big difference. You don't direct ship/transport graphite like iron ore or coal. It needs to be milled and bagged on site into concentration of at least 94%.

TLG's current mine life is very short. The big one, Niska Expansion at 84.7 ktpa has a current mine life of only 14yrs. Nunasvaara South which is tiny, only producing 19.5 ktpa is 24yrs. Balama has a mine life +50yrs at 350 ktpa. It also has another 200yrs but only at 10% head grade which SYR doesn't even bother counting. At 10% head grade it is still profitable at current flake prices but does eat into the margins processing more dirt.

I know you understand most of it but many inexperienced investors don't know what they're talking about and fly off the handle. Understanding the supply and demand side of battery grade graphite is complex with hundreds of moving parts.

You need to understand:

1/ how many EV's are being built and where
2/ how many are BEV's and PHEV's
3/ what's the ave battery sizes in the new model EV's (bigger than the current ones)
4/ the natural versus synthetic ratio
5/ what mines are being built, when, where and how big. TLG is in the top 5 which makes it significant but the others are tiny with most producing less than 30 ktpa
6/ what is happening to Chinese production, both mine and AAM production (the chinese are currently expanding their synthetic production according to Asian metals)
7/ how many AAM plants are coming online, when where and how much
8/ where are the lithium battery manufacturing plants being built, how many, when and what size
9/ what are each jurisdictions compliance rules to CO2 emissions, when are they banning the sale of ICE vehicles
10/ what are their subsides and what are the compliance rules in each jurisdiction to qualify ie the recently passed US inflation reduction bill
11/ being able to differentiate when reading a report if they're talking about total graphite, battery grade graphite, does it include both natural or synthetic. Most people can't
12/ what's happening on the cathode side. Will they be able to produce enough at volume to meet future demand
13/ how does all of the above help predict future EV sales and graphite demand

Saying oh well, you know, when the US market matures SYR will be priced out due to shipping costs without knowing all of the above is amateur hour. SYR's Vidalia plant will only need three 30,000t ships annually. And they aren't even big ships. When the AAM plant is built in Europe they'll probably need 6. Unload half in Europe and sail on to Baton Rouge. Panasonic are sniffing around and might be interested in partnering SYR in their EU plant to guarantee supply to their battery manufacturing plants.

North America can't come close to producing enough graphite flake from their future mines to meet current demand let alone future demand. Most mines are tiny. Then there is building enough natural and synthetic plants to produce AAM.
 
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Semmel

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I think Semmel might be relying on this from the various presentations including the most recent (Page 16 of the latest presentation)

Talga is in the process of expanding its Vittangi Graphite Resource and has defined a JORC Exploration Target approximately 6-7 times larger (170 - 200 million tonnes at 20 - 30% graphite)1 yet to be drilled out

Exactly. At 170 Mt ore with 25% average contained graphite, that is 40 Mt pure graphite. This should get a 2 mtpa mine occupied for 20 years. And that is only Vittangi / Niska region. The exploration target is also open at depth, meaning it's not done after the 170+mt ore.

Talges has two other regions in Sweden where there is no mine yet. If the graphite is similarly suitable for Talnode-C, we are looking at much more production. A 2 to 3 mtpa production is realistic. Sure, it's not a JORC ressource yet but the writing is on the wall.

I hope niska expansion takes us to 300ktpa instead of 100 and then the mtpa range with the next expansion after Niska by ~2030.
 
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Semmel

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I saw that in the report but it is conceptual, pie in the sky stuff which makes for good reading. Read the fine print under it. They go onto say they are uncertain if further exploration will result in the estimation of a Mineral Resource. They have no idea of the grade. I wouldn't be making any investments decisions or predictions based on it. And all it will do is extend the mine life not the amount produced each year. A big difference. You don't direct ship/transport graphite like iron ore or coal. It needs to be milled and bagged on site into concentration of at least 94%.

TLG's current mine life is very short. The big one, Niska Expansion at 84.7 ktpa has a current mine life of only 14yrs. Nunasvaara South which is tiny, only producing 19.5 ktpa is 24yrs. Balama has a mine life +50yrs at 350 ktpa. It also has another 200yrs but only at 10% head grade which SYR doesn't even bother counting. At 10% head grade it is still profitable at current flake prices but does eat into the margins processing more dirt.

I know you understand most of it but many inexperienced investors don't know what they're talking about and fly off the handle. Understanding the supply and demand side of battery grade graphite is complex with hundreds of moving parts.

You need to understand:

1/ how many EV's are being built and where
2/ how many are BEV's and PHEV's
3/ what's the ave battery sizes in the new model EV's (bigger than the current ones)
4/ the natural versus synthetic ratio
5/ what mines are being built, when, where and how big. TLG is in the top 5 which makes it significant but the others are tiny with most producing less than 30 ktpa
6/ what is happening to Chinese production, both mine and AAM production (the chinese are currently expanding their synthetic production according to Asian metals)
7/ how many AAM plants are coming online, when where and how much
8/ where are the lithium battery manufacturing plants being built, how many, when and what size
9/ what are each jurisdictions compliance rules to CO2 emissions, when are they banning the sale of ICE vehicles
10/ what are their subsides and what are the compliance rules in each jurisdiction to qualify ie the recently passed US inflation reduction bill
11/ being able to differentiate when reading a report if they're talking about total graphite, battery grade graphite, does it include both natural or synthetic. Most people can't
12/ what's happening on the cathode side. Will they be able to produce enough at volume to meet future demand
13/ how does all of the above help predict future EV sales and graphite demand

Saying oh well, you know, when the US market matures SYR will be priced out due to shipping costs without knowing all of the above is amateur hour. SYR's Vidalia plant will only need three 30,000t ships annually. And they aren't even big ships. When the AAM plant is built in Europe they'll probably need 6. Unload half in Europe and sail on to Baton Rouge. Panasonic are sniffing around and might be interested in partnering SYR in their EU plant to guarantee supply to their battery manufacturing plants.

North America can't come close to producing enough graphite flake from their future mines to meet current demand let alone future demand. Most mines are tiny. Then there is building enough natural and synthetic plants to produce AAM.

We are not talking SYR here, nor the US market. Sorry, but it's just not the topic. The mineral content if Talga is a moving target and everyone knows it. In the past, actual measurements exceeded expectations in concentration and size. The exploration target is based on EM measurements and the structure indicates a continuation of current minerals. It's not pie in the sky. Also, at moment we try to save the climate and serve the European market. There is an urgency for more anode and an expansion of the plans. Mark said as much in the last webinar.
 
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Exactly. At 170 Mt ore with 25% average contained graphite, that is 40 Mt pure graphite. This should get a 2 mtpa mine occupied for 20 years. And that is only Vittangi / Niska region. The exploration target is also open at depth, meaning it's not done after the 170+mt ore.

Talges has two other regions in Sweden where there is no mine yet. If the graphite is similarly suitable for Talnode-C, we are looking at much more production. A 2 to 3 mtpa production is realistic. Sure, it's not a JORC ressource yet but the writing is on the wall.

I hope niska expansion takes us to 300ktpa instead of 100 and then the mtpa range with the next expansion after Niska by ~2030.
I'm not sure with advances in battery technologies whether having a mine life of > 20 years is actually a good idea. Who knows what game changing breakthrough might occur in the next 15 years for commercialisation in another 5 years after that

Just think the first iPhone was released in 2007 just 15 years ago
 
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On another topic this is interesting. The gross shorts for 19 August were 4,527 and for 22 August 1,738

Why bother ?
 
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Proga

Regular
We are not talking SYR here, nor the US market. Sorry, but it's just not the topic. The mineral content if Talga is a moving target and everyone knows it. In the past, actual measurements exceeded expectations in concentration and size. The exploration target is based on EM measurements and the structure indicates a continuation of current minerals. It's not pie in the sky. Also, at moment we try to save the climate and serve the European market. There is an urgency for more anode and an expansion of the plans. Mark said as much in the last webinar.
I hope they find it and more. Globally the EV market will need every bit of it. I posted in TLG HC last year I hope Sweden would hurry up and issue TLG a full mining licence so they can get cracking. The world needs another 17 TLG/SYR's just to keep up with demand over the next 20yrs.

The Chinese mines are depleting and they're not opening up anymore due to environmental concerns. Everything SYR and TLG produces will be easily sold. Probably all of it will be tied up in off-take agreements. Battery manufactures and OEM's are clamouring all over themselves to secure supply. It's not a competition. The EU are petrified they won't be able to secure enough battery raw materials.

I'm not sure with advances in battery technologies whether having a mine life of > 20 years is actually a good idea - who knows @WheresTheMonkey. I'll be out by then but my guess is they'll need some. How much is the question. In 20 yrs they'll be producing 120m EV's per year and the sale of new ICE vehicles will be banned in most countries. The hardest part of any new tech is to be able to produce at scale. They'll have to reconfigure an awful lot of current battery manufacturing plants. It will be interesting to see what happens.
 
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Affenhorst

Regular
I think you're confused. There is no way TLG can produce 2 to 3 mtpa. It simply doesn't have the resource. In the TLG webinar presentation on the 3rd of August, TLG says contained graphite totals 12mt (page 14) or a 4.5yr mine life on your 3 mtpa at 95% purity. The cost to build the mine and the processing plant to produce 3 mtpa would cost more than what the graphite is worth. ROI is measured in 7-10yrs.
I think 2 to 3 Mt/a is a bit extreme, but I see them going to 1 Mt/a eventually, perhaps in a decade. Your take on the resource is either uninformed or disingeniuous. There are is enough evidence to suggest that their exploration targets can translate to resources, once drilled. All drilling so far, even very recently, has only confirmed this. There is another resource upgrade inbound this year and more will follow after additional drilling.

I saw that in the report but it is conceptual, pie in the sky stuff which makes for good reading. Read the fine print under it. They go onto say they are uncertain if further exploration will result in the estimation of a Mineral Resource. They have no idea of the grade.
They have to say this for legal reasons. And you know that, so it's quite transparent when you try to paint it as anything else.

What they actual want to do is expand mining from 2025/26 to 104Ktpa (p27).
That was just an initial scoping study and it is bloody obvious that this is inadequate or merely a stepping stone to further expansions. MT confirmed this very recently. Expect a larger PFS/DFS or a new scoping study.

And all it will do is extend the mine life not the amount produced each year.
That does not make any sense. They can and will start additional mines or expand existing one(s).

A big difference. You don't direct ship/transport graphite like iron ore or coal. It needs to be milled and bagged on site into concentration of at least 94%.
Duh. So you build out the capacity to do that. Not all at once, but staged.

When you produce graphite granules (precursor) to produce AAM, you lose 40% of the graphite flake in the milling to grind down the flake to the size you want to put in the battery after being coated. TLG thinks it can turn the dust/powder off cut into graphene. That would be useful.
This is not the case for Talga's graphite due to its unique structure. They have very little loss. If I remember correctly, they can recover more than 90 % for the primary purpose.

Apart from VW which uses 100% synthetic, all other vehicles use around 50% natural and 50% synthetic.
Meh, that was just one slide from a presentation that I would not take as gospel. In the end it's all about cost/performance. If Talnode shines, VW will want it. In fact, with their involvement with Northvolt it is very likely.

TLG's current mine life is very short. The big one, Niska Expansion at 84.7 ktpa has a current mine life of only 14yrs. Nunasvaara South which is tiny, only producing 19.5 ktpa is 24yrs.
A large part of this has to do with planning. They defined a scope that would yield reasonal capex for the initial operations so that it seemed appropriate at the time when things were more risky. You can see that when looking at Talga's ore reserve (scope of initial project) vs. defined resource in the very same location. It's a fraction.

At 10% head grade it is still profitable at current flake prices but does eat into the margins processing more dirt.
By the way, Talga also used a 10 % cut-off for there resource definition.
 
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I hope they find it and more. Globally the EV market will need every bit of it. I posted in TLG HC last year I hope Sweden would hurry up and issue TLG a full mining licence so they can get cracking. The world needs another 17 TLG/SYR's just to keep up with demand over the next 20yrs.

The Chinese mines are depleting and they're not opening up anymore due to environmental concerns. Everything SYR and TLG produces will be easily sold. Probably all of it will be tied up in off-take agreements. Battery manufactures and OEM's are clamouring all over themselves to secure supply. It's not a competition. The EU are petrified they won't be able to secure enough battery raw materials.

I'm not sure with advances in battery technologies whether having a mine life of > 20 years is actually a good idea - who knows @WheresTheMonkey. I'll be out by then but my guess is they'll need some. How much is the question. In 20 yrs they'll be producing 120m EV's per year and the sale of new ICE vehicles will be banned in most countries. The hardest part of any new tech is to be able to produce at scale. They'll have to reconfigure an awful lot of current battery manufacturing plants. It will be interesting to see what happens.
Yeah I agree there will be plenty of room for good graphite outfits in the years to come SYR + TLG + Others. I don't get the continual prodding that the RNU and EGR crowd give each other over at HC. Bloody hell the EGR people don't even have a mine
 
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Affenhorst

Regular
I'm not sure with advances in battery technologies whether having a mine life of > 20 years is actually a good idea - who knows @WheresTheMonkey. I'll be out by then but my guess is they'll need some. How much is the question. In 20 yrs they'll be producing 120m EV's per year and the sale of new ICE vehicles will be banned in most countries. The hardest part of any new tech is to be able to produce at scale. They'll have to reconfigure an awful lot of current battery manufacturing plants. It will be interesting to see what happens.
I'm not worried one bit about graphite demand in the future. All current and planned future battery factories use graphite battery tech. Once these things are built, you don't just abandon them. They become cheaper, the longer they produce. Performance can be improved over time, e.g. by tweaking the recipe, additives etc. There are battery factories older than 20 years. As you allude to, demand will be massive for many decades to come. I see graphite anode being relevant for at least 30-40 years, even when something fancier becomes viable eventually. The market will expand with new options, but those won't kill the old ones.
 
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Diogenese

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I think 2 to 3 Mt/a is a bit extreme, but I see them going to 1 Mt/a eventually, perhaps in a decade. Your take on the resource is either uninformed or disingeniuous. There are is enough evidence to suggest that their exploration targets can translate to resources, once drilled. All drilling so far, even very recently, has only confirmed this. There is another resource upgrade inbound this year and more will follow after additional drilling.


They have to say this for legal reasons. And you know that, so it's quite transparent when you try to paint it as anything else.


That was just an initial scoping study and it is bloody obvious that this is inadequate or merely a stepping stone to further expansions. MT confirmed this very recently. Expect a larger PFS/DFS or a new scoping study.


That does not make any sense. They can and will start additional mines or expand existing one(s).


Duh. So you build out the capacity to do that. Not all at once, but staged.


This is not the case for Talga's graphite due to its unique structure. They have very little loss. If I remember correctly, they can recover more than 90 % for the primary purpose.


Meh, that was just one slide from a presentation that I would not take as gospel. In the end it's all about cost/performance. If Talnode shines, VW will want it. In fact, with their involvement with Northvolt it is very likely.


A large part of this has to do with planning. They defined a scope that would yield reasonal capex for the initial operations so that it seemed appropriate at the time when things were more risky. You can see that when looking at Talga's ore reserve (scope of initial project) vs. defined resource in the very same location. It's a fraction.


By the way, Talga also used a 10 % cut-off for there resource definition.
Hi Affenhorst,

As you say:

"This is not the case for Talga's graphite due to its unique structure. They have very little loss. If I remember correctly, they can recover more than 90 % for the primary purpose."

My layman's understanding of the geology is:
The source of the Talga graphite is cyanobacta - blue-green algae the earliest life-form. This means that the basic units are small and uniform in shape/size as well as being substantially uniform on a macro scale - whole seas of dead algae collected in the trenches of long-past oceans with very little other life-forms capable of surviving in the same environment, leading to the highest purity deposits on earth. Mark recognized the unique character of the Vittangi deposits during his global search, and, although he may have first thought of graphene, his insight was serendipitously coincident with the mandating of EVs.
 
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Semmel

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On another topic this is interesting. The gross shorts for 19 August were 4,527 and for 22 August 1,738

Why bother ?

Can be market makers (MM). At least in the US, MM is a legal construct that get certain allowances on the stock market but has to provide liquidity of shares. Any shares. Meaning, if someone wants to buy shares and there is no seller, MM will step in and sell these shares. Imagine, the MM does not have these shares in their possession, so they are going to sell them short to the customer. Then the MM has 3 days or so to find these shares on the open market and clean their books. I can see ASX have a similar construct but I am not sure.
 
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cosors

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I'm not sure with advances in battery technologies whether having a mine life of > 20 years is actually a good idea. Who knows what game changing breakthrough might occur in the next 15 years for commercialisation in another 5 years after that

Just think the first iPhone was released in 2007 just 15 years ago
EV anodes are far from the only use for graphite. And how many graphite sources does Europe have?
Another topic: I have often discussed data centers and their energy consumption with some people. One argument is usually that if the electricity is produced regeneratively it doesn't matter how much energy they consume. I disagree and with me the first politicians in Brussels. Waste heat is a sign of inefficiency and energy waste. We have no energy to waste. I refer this to NG vs SG. And that's why I still think that SG are not arbitrarily scalable as long as the electricity is renewable. My point is that even if the use case for EV anodes is eliminated, this is a cheap European source of graphite. And none of us can say if e.g. graphene will be used massively in concrete in the future or if electrodes for steel production could be made of it or maybe moderators, brushes for motors, lubricants, insulation etc. And the vein of ore seems to be connected underground. Even if Talga does not want to operate the mine anymore and sells it, this is no reason to close it just because it might not be needed for EV anodes. And everything is based on the theory that the technology that is being developed now will prevail. But maybe it will turn out differently and not the most powerful product will prevail but the cheapest in production and the most resource efficient. And apart from that, I can't imagine that only one technology will prevail. We will see.
 
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cosors

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@Proga there are also some among the Talgas that hold Syrah (or RNU). From the beginning we have looked closely at our competitors. Diogenese brought an example why many of us have deliberately chosen Talga. Their resource is unique.
You are right that transport is not an argument that realy worries politics. A few years ago Germany openly supported Syrah's mine and pinned their hopes on its supply. Ultimately, the imprint for transportation will be held in the battery label. Northvolt wants to make the most sustainable batteries in the world and their focus has never been on the best possible performance as far as I know.
I think there is enough of the pie for everyone. Glad you post here too I only know you from Brainchip.
 
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cosors

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Semmel

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There is a bit more to the article but it just does a peer comparison. As I said the article is heavily protected hence the screen shots format.

Tried everything to post it but all failed.

I'll try and post the rest later but I will probably delete the the entire post after the weekend as there maybe copyright issues putting it here.

However to me this presents an extremely optimistic future

Happy Tom Hiddleston GIF
 
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