Proga
Regular
I think you're confused. There is no way TLG can produce 2 to 3 mtpa. It simply doesn't have the resource. In the TLG webinar presentation on the 3rd of August, TLG says contained graphite totals 12mt (page 14) or a 4.5yr mine life on your 3 mtpa at 95% purity. The cost to build the mine and the processing plant to produce 3 mtpa would cost more than what the graphite is worth. ROI is measured in 7-10yrs. What they actual want to do is expand mining from 2025/26 to 104Ktpa (p27). 30x less than 3 mpta. Or are you talking about how much dirt they mine not the contained graphite the mine produces. Either way they can't produce either at 2 to 3 mtpa. SYR can currently mine 2.1 mtpa of dirt per year to produce 350ktpa of 96% contained graphite. Plans are underway to expand their Balama mine as well. They just received US$102m from the Department of Energy to expand their AAM plant at Vidalia from a pilot plant into commercial operations. The ground work has been completed.Interesting take. Though I don't necessarily agree. Europe's interest is to get independence from china on as much resources as possible. Because they know they might get hosed if china eventually decides to invade Taiwan and trade gets interrupted. It's not gonna happen over night but i expect Europe to do whatever possible to mine Graphite and many other minerals locally, as well as ramp up synthetic production. Also, the power grid is in shambles at least in Europe. It's still working reasonably well but if we lose hydro, nuclear and coal all at once due to heat in the summer, it's gonna get tough. The answer is obviously renewables. There will be enough lobbying power to push fossil fuels wherever possible but it's a losing battle. You can only fight against a tsunami of change for so long. Especially as solar and wind plus batteries becomes cheaper than coal, oil and nuclear even with subsidies (for the fossils and nuclear, not for the renewables). It's not gonna take 20 years.
For Talges success, a lot of capacity is build for the current technology. New battery chemistry might evolve but it's not going to be fast and will not replace the graphite industry, new tech is gonna be added on top. Talges will be producing carbon anode in the order of 2 to 3 mtpa eventually (past 2030). It's going to be sublimented by silicon additives, which reduces the amount of necessary material, making the product cheaper and use less material. Increasing the reach of the ressource. EU will support synthetic anode production as well. We might still import stuff from china and elsewhere due to trade agreements but we will not be dependent on it like we are today.
When you produce graphite granules (precursor) to produce AAM, you lose 40% of the graphite flake in the milling to grind down the flake to the size you want to put in the battery after being coated. TLG thinks it can turn the dust/powder off cut into graphene. That would be useful.
You are also confusing the power grid with power generation. The grid is the poles and wires to get the generated power to businesses and homes. Both are in a shamble. Trillions will need to be spent on the grid globally just to get the power to the EV's to recharge them. That's a given. You say power generation is in a shambles but the next breath you point out the EU wants to produce power hungry synthetic. It will only be in very limited quantities for national security reasons.
Apart from VW which uses 100% synthetic, all other vehicles use around 50% natural and 50% synthetic. The silicon additives have the same properties as synthetic so it will reduce the amount of synthetic required not natural.
In the presentation on page 9 they produced a pie chart showing Mozambique currently mines 14% of global graphite. 90-95% is from SYR operating at 30% of total current capacity. You should find time to read TLG's presentations. They're full of interesting information.
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