AVZ Discussion 2022

[ptlas]

@Mute22

Don’t forget the tin

Wasn’t there tantalum aswell?
It's that long ago, I barely recall the details but seen to remember that there were complications around it's monetisation.
Back to US$10+ with lithium price rises.

 

[GuruDukun]

Anyone got tiktok?

Noticed there is an account for Manono Lithium



I'm not downloading the app (I'm not 16) but others might be keen to have a browse.

 

[Carlos Danger]

1. Key Assumptions (Updated):
   1. Annual Production: Assume 700,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate annually, containing approximately 6 percent lithium oxide. This equates to approximately 96,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year.
   2. Mine Life: 20 years, based on a 400 million tonne resource.
   3. Lithium Price: 25,000 US dollars per tonne (long-term average for LCE, reflecting potential future price normalization).
   4. Operating Costs (OpEx): 4,000 US dollars per tonne of LCE, higher to reflect additional costs for operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
   5. Capital Expenditure (CapEx): 600 million US dollars (initial development costs based on recent estimates for similar projects).
   6. Discount Rate: 12 percent (to account for geopolitical and operational risks).
   7. Shares Outstanding: 3.5 billion shares.
2. Steps to Refine Valuation:
   1. Annual Revenue
      Annual revenue equals annual production multiplied by lithium price.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 25,000 US dollars per tonne equals 2.4 billion US dollars per year.
   2. Annual Operating Costs
      Annual operating costs equal annual production multiplied by operating cost per tonne.
      96,000 tonnes multiplied by 4,000 US dollars per tonne equals 384 million US dollars per year.
   3. Annual Cash Flow
      Annual cash flow equals revenue minus operating costs.
      2.4 billion US dollars minus 384 million US dollars equals 2.016 billion US dollars per year.
   4. Present Value of Cash Flows (Discounted)
      Using a 12 percent discount rate and a 20-year project life:
      Present value of cash flows equals annual cash flow multiplied by discount factor.
      Discount factor for a 12 percent rate over 20 years is approximately 7.47.
      2.016 billion US dollars multiplied by 7.47 equals 15.06 billion US dollars.
   5. Adjust for CapEx
      Subtract upfront capital expenditure.
      15.06 billion US dollars minus 600 million US dollars equals 14.46 billion US dollars.
   6. Per Share Value
      Value per share equals adjusted present value divided by shares outstanding.
      14.46 billion US dollars divided by 3.5 billion shares equals 4.13 US dollars per share.
3. Final Valuation
   The fair value per share for AVZ is estimated at USD 4.13, or approximately AUD 6.35 (using an exchange rate of 1 USD = 1.54 AUD).
   
   I would settle for 6.35 AUD per share.

You have calculated Dathcom value. AVZ own 44.5% of that for profit and selling purposes. And don’t forget the tax tax tax of 30%.

It’s gonna be cooked because the order of calculation is wrong and dividing Dathcom value by AVZ shares is incorrect but on the same basis you have chosen using your inputs it ends up around the same valuation as @geo_au and I

6.35 (-30%) x 44.5% = $1.97

 

[Mute22]

Honestly, can you blame those who exploit the system and get out?

The whole country is a bucket of crabs, always was, always will be:

 

[Azzler]

You have calculated Dathcom value. AVZ own 44.5% of that for profit and selling purposes. And don’t forget the tax tax tax of 30%.

It’s gonna be cooked because the order of calculation is wrong and dividing Dathcom value by AVZ shares is incorrect but on the same basis you have chosen using your inputs it ends up around the same valuation as @geo_au and I

6.35 (-30%) x 44.5% = $1.97

We may not end up having to pay that tax, ya never know it seems like endless surprises.

 

[Carlos Danger]

We may not end up having to pay that tax, ya never know it seems like endless surprises.

We could potentially have it dropped to 17% by disposing of GLH in Singapore although we may need to pay the difference when bringing profits back to Australia depending on various factors but otherwise it’s gonna be 30% in either DRC or Australia. Could potentially be avoided if AVZ is sold completely but that is unlikely due to firb and bod indicating previously that they would continue the company if they sold Manono imo

 

[Winenut]

I would love them to negotiate a removal or at least decent reduction of the DRC tax as part of any deal if it were to happen

Seems only fair for the amount of absolute shitfuckery they have put AVZ shareholders through for nearly 3 fucking years now

 

[Dazmac66]

Nice, even if it is published by the bottom dwelling organization.

 

[Winenut]

View attachment 76906
Nice, even if it is published by the bottom dwelling organization.

I've heard the quality of journalism, the accuracy of research and the general articles have improved immensely since Tommy Fuckface was given the arse....

 

[BRICK]

I've heard the quality of journalism, the accuracy of research and the general articles have improved immensely since Tommy Fuckface was given the arse....

View attachment 76907

Well.... WHILE WE ARE RUNNING SOME GOLDEN OLDIES...

 

[BRICK]

 

[Dazmac66]

I've heard the quality of journalism, the accuracy of research and the general articles have improved immensely since Tommy Fuckface was given the arse....

View attachment 76907

It will be very interesting when AVZ has the coin to pursue this grub. Pay the very best lawyers to drill down into his finances. Maybe find the motivation behind his complete distain for a genuine Aussie company and it's 20000 investors. Tick tock Tommy!

 

[Winenut]

It will be very interesting when AVZ has the coin to pursue this grub. Pay the very best lawyers to drill down into his finances. Maybe find the motivation behind his complete distain for a genuine Aussie company and it's 20000 investors. Tick tock Tommy!

Totally agree...

It's criminal what that prick was allowed to publish (and let's not forget it was the AFR that also allowed that to happen) so let's get to the bottom of how that all occured......when the time is appropriate

Bigger fish to fry right now but I'm up for incinerating the absolute living fuck out of all those little fish as well

Their contribution to the anti Australian, anti AVZ, pro Chinese, pro Cong, pro Boatman, pro Zijin, pro DRC corruption, pro MMGA, pro Carrick, pro Huljich, pro Ludbrook, pro Eastwood, pro Omni Bridgeway connections should not be ignored and the financial incentives and money trails involved should be absolutely fucking investigated and exposed for all to see by the Australian Government, ASIC, the ATO, the FIRB, the AFP and all other related institutions

Fukkem

Those pricks participated in, and misrepresented, the biggest, orchestrated, corrupted, corporate/commercial theft in living history affecting the livelihoods, finances and mental health of tens of thousands of honest Mum and Dad investors in Australia, the good and honest people of the DRC and enormous numbers of interested parties and international investors elsewhere in the world

 

[Bray]

View attachment 76914

Hahahaha that’s wild

 

[Azzler]

We could potentially have it dropped to 17% by disposing of GLH in Singapore although we may need to pay the difference when bringing profits back to Australia depending on various factors but otherwise it’s gonna be 30% in either DRC or Australia. Could potentially be avoided if AVZ is sold completely but that is unlikely due to firb and bod indicating previously that they would continue the company if they sold Manono imo

No Bro, I mean, beyond reasoning, this asset might not yet get sold, before it trades again.
No sale, no sales tax.

 

[Uglybob]

It'll be interesting to see how well his defamation insurance holds up if it turns out he was being paid to produce negative stories on AVZ that he well knew were not factually correct. There may be some pineapples in his future.

 

[CashKing]

We may not end up having to pay that tax, ya never know it seems like endless surprises.

Dude I’d rather pay tax on this bullshit right now, kinda means you made some money right

At this stage we ain’t made fuck all and waiting still to make some money.

Paying the tax man would be a blessing IMO

GLTAH

 

[Carlos Danger]

No Bro, I mean, beyond reasoning, this asset might not yet get sold, before it trades again.
No sale, no sales tax.

Ok bro. The discussion was around tax implications of a hypothetical sale. I’m aware we might not sell and have given my prediction for that scenario too.

I’ve screenshotted your post and will remind you of it if we do trade again without selling

If that occurs the real question will be will you back up the truck while the shares are on sale after the open lol

 

[Dom1974]

Kinshasa under seige at the moment with a number of foreign embassies set alight. Plenty of disdain by DRC Army towards Felix for his poor handling of Goma. US travel advisory warning against travel to the country. Don’t think Pei would be given time of day or AVZ being even at the back of Felix’s mind at the moment. Hope the unrest subsides. An overthrow of Govt whilst maybe good for us in the long term would set us back many months in terms of a favourable outcome. Though whole of DRC is corrupt so a change of Govt I’d see as garbage in/garbage out, rinse and repeat.

 

[Retrobyte]

Anyone got tiktok?

Noticed there is an account for Manono Lithium



I'm not downloading the app (I'm not 16) but others might be keen to have a browse.

They have a Facebook page as well ... https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61562183019247