AVZ Discussion 2022

[JasonM]

Locke and its funding may be a necessary evil which was clearly becoming of increasing importance and urgency. The terms highlight that. But now having read the announcement again, it seems we have replaced one existential risk to AVZ's existence with another - also with a fairly short off-ramp time-line. Risky business in the big leagues! Hope NF and Co know what they are doing - will look forward to hearing the explanations delivered at the AGM, and gain some awareness of plans in the back pocket should this situation drag beyond the next 2 years and repayment looms. While there will likely be ways to avoid the worst possible outcomes, if it comes to that, like a wider shareholder raising, it's still a legitimate concern.

Otherwise though am happy to see funding. It'll be very interesting now to see if the DRC's attitudes towards meeting us and trying to work through to a resolution change now that they understand we can't be financially starved into submission, at least in the short to medium-term. I expect that it might.

Let's get negotiations back on track!

Also, any guesses as to what fair SP value might look like in Sep 2024? Certainly not the .01 that fat boy was offering, but then again it would be nowhere near the last traded price. Perhaps 15c? So if we do get a way out of this mess we'll see Locke acquiring about 300 million more cheap shares. Unfortunate but necessary, namely the price of doing business without much leverage.

no doubt you're a glass half empty type of person. yep big price to pay but locke stumping up and risking their cash, if they win, we win.

 

[Roon]

no doubt you're a glass half empty type of person. yep big price to pay but locke stumping up and risking their cash, if they win, we win.

Yes, though I would call it a realists view. And the second part of your statement isn't strictly true. There is a way they can win without us winning - that's what I was worried about.

But as I said, it's a necessary evil. They are also taking a big risk, and we need the funds. It's drastically improved our near-term chances of success in this endeavor, IMO.

I'm more pleased than concerned for the time being. And with our ICSID case to progress this coming year to a hearing, the pressure will really be on. I think there is a reasonable likelihood that due to this pressure it may not need to get as far as an ICSID award, and that the DRC can be brought to some kind of acceptable terms.

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Locke and DLAP fully aligned with our interests and will fight like hell to get to final ICSID court case. I’m told the DRC only strategy has been to bankrupt us and their legal standing/Arguaments are embarrassing.

Mounting pressure month by month before court case begins in June, DRC desperate for this never to happen. Good result

 

[PhatCatz]

big win in terms of getting funding for next two years but worried about this Dec 2026 payback date. This has a high chance to take longer than 2 years. But at least it gives the company some additional time to sort themselves into a more favourable position instead of leaving thing to the last minute. Yes I understand Locke funding has been working on for a while but it still felt all too rushed considering the stakes at risk.

But also I do understand the run arounds and BS that the corrupt actors have done to the BOD. I guess tuck between a rock and a hard place.

 

[Lopu]

I am as happy as can be under the circumstances. We can keep on going to fight for our rights.

But I do not agree with some others that the funding means we have a water tight case and that this is the reason Locke agreed to the funding. Locke can not loose. If AVZ wins they get a nice payback. If AVZ loses then Locke has AVZ and all susidiaries and assets as securities. They could sell the AVZ stake in Dathcom to Zijn. How much would they pay to have AVZ out and own the south too? Locke can only ein either way. But maybe I misunderstood

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Just remember, deboss said "In my view, the Company is on the cusp of some significant wins and breakthroughs."
Locke is only the first significant win and breakthrough..... So let's see what happens....

 

[Flight996]

I too am very happy that a fighting fund deal finally got inked.

The summary of terms implies a very, very good deal for Locke, including:

• First mortgage terms (potentially billions in assets as security for $15m loan),
• Sixty million shares in AVZ plus very generous equity and top-up options across a range of scenarios.

However, AVZ was cornered and fighting for its life, and generous terms were the price it had to agree in order to get funding across the line.

I am very happy for the oxygen that this package brings management in its fight against the corrupt DRC maggots and their shit-eating Chinese masters.

Cheers
F

 

[Cumquat Cap]

US 15 or Aud 23 at 60 million shares is 0.35 per share and rising once the court cases ramp up.

Also Locke will not be negotiating on our behalf, simply funding and providing some USA related backup support

 

[Pokok]

"As always i will act in the best interest of this forum".


Mmmmm.....????

My suggestion is you and Yianni absolutely kick the living fucking suitcase out of Carrotdick just prior to question time

Then......

Get all the intel and decent answers to genuine shareholders questions from the Nige et al

Following that dump Carrotdick's limp arse in the most compromising area of the Perth CBD with his pants around his ankles and a sign around his neck saying "Open for Business".......

It's not outside his character so I'm guessing there won't be any legal ramifications

After that judiciously share the important intel with the trusted TSE members via PM's and the golden grapevine (no Hoots you're not a member or you Tolate so suck it up boyfriends)

Beyond that I have no immediate plans or ideas.....

And I was thinking I need professional help

 

[Xerof]

I suspect @geo_au tipped the Locke signing when he said ‘wait a couple of weeks and we’ll be jumping for joy’ Timing was out coz BOD wanted to wait until AGM to announce, IMO

So, next stop is the result of the ‘Auction’……IMO

Waiting…..

 

[wombat74]

Well done BoD . Well done @geo_au and deboss . Cheers

 

[Exo311s]

Made an account after being a holder and reader for the past 7 years. Feels like we are on the cusp of a resolution.

Excited at the Locke funding finally being finalised. Hopefully the short 2 years the BOD has is a vote of confidence that things will be sorted within the next 2 years?

Goodluck to all going to the AGM. May the path forward become clearer to us after today

 

[Rediah]

Nigel @geo_au be like, it not his fault announcement are coming out slow.

 

[Roon]

Locke in at 38c a share, great deal for them, good deal for us. They’ll get amazing ROI at $1.5 $2 and we’ll get ourselves free. Wish there was more incentive for them to get an outcome at a higher share price. But our backs against the shitty mudbrick hut wall and our Chinese assailants have huge ccp supplied knives. Keep punching Nigel!!

This isnt correct. The announcement doesn't suggest that the 60m shares that will be issued to Locke are to cover the 15m loan. Otherwise that would be a straightforward issue and there wouldn't need to be all the other terms for repayment.

It's only a part consideration, and it's highly likely that most if not all of the cash borrowed will still need to be paid back in cash too, and with interest, seperately to whats already provided. The equity just sweetens the deal. So we can't place any definined SP value against the 60m shares that's being handed across from Acuity - so cant say Locke got in at 38 cents nor 35 cents as someone mentioned above. Though we dont know the precise terms, we do know that these shares don't equate to and cover the 15m loan.

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Jeez you are a wet blanket, be thankful we now have a cache which has been carefully tailored to ensure will last he ICSID court case alone.

This is a devastating blow for the DRC government and costs will be insignificant if we can finally settle. If they refuse after further years then we all know it’s lights out.

Miserable bastard at all times

 

[j.l]

This isnt correct. The announcement doesn't suggest that the 60m shares that will be issued to Locke are to cover the 15m loan. Otherwise that would be a straightforward issue and there wouldn't need to be all the other terms for repayment.

It's only a part consideration, and it's highly likely that most if not all of the cash borrowed will still need to be paid back in cash too, and with interest, seperately to whats already provided. The equity just sweetens the deal. So we can't place any definined SP value against the 60m shares that's being handed across from Acuity - so cant say Locke got in at 38 cents nor 35 cents as someone mentioned above. Though we dont know the precise terms, we do know that these shares don't equate to and cover the 15m loan.

Agreed.

I think (I think!) it could be summarised as follows:

If, before December 2026, we get the PE OR settle for a payout OR raise further funds then Locke get 10% of AVZ, 8.3% of which is based on options at an as yet undisclosed valuation +50%, the other 1.7% being the 60m shares released by Acuity Capital from the ATM facility which Locke get for free, plus repayment of the USD10m plus whatever money we drew down over and above that 10m figure.

Otherwise, come end 2026 if AVZ can't repay then Locke, who holds all AVZ's assets as security, does as it sees fit...

(but hopefully we have the second part of @geo_au 's prediction yet to play out)

 

[BEISHA]

I believe the Locke funding only covers legal costs. Corporate costs are excluded, which is possibly why there's a shortfall against the originally targeted sum.

AVZ still has to find a way to fund corporate costs, hence the recent convertible note raising (and presumably it was needed to be able to demonstrate to Locke that AVZ was still a going concern).

December 2026 is not that far away, especially in light of the timelines of other ICSID proceedings that we've heard about recently.

Hopefully management learn a lesson from all these last minute funding adventures and is already planning the strategy for the next round of funding come the end of the Locke deal. Or some of that temporary relief is paid out.

The stakes remain very high. One can only hope...

Ok i am going to let the cat out of the bag regards to Locke funding, intel i received out of the 20m received, BOD were hoping they could use 5m as working capital which clearly was a stumbling block cause Locke deals with litigation funding only hence the soph cap raise.

So there is definitely still a issue regards to raising funds for working capital and it will be a question i will ask at the AGM.

 

[Exo311s]

Ok i am going to let the cat out of the bag regards to Locke funding, intel i received BOD were hoping out of the 20m received, they were hoping they could use 5m as working capital which clearly was a stumbling block cause Locke funding deals with litigation funding only hence the soph cap raise.

So there is definitely still an issue regards to raising funds for working capital and it will be a question i will ask at the AGM.

This makes sense

Good luck with the AGM and hopeful we get answers and a clearer path forward

 

[aon]

Just remember, deboss said "In my view, the Company is on the cusp of some significant wins and breakthroughs."
Locke is only the first significant win and breakthrough..... So let's see what happens....

YEP , Locke deal is just to help push along and up the bidding process imo.

 

[j.l]

YEP , Locke deal is just to help push along and up the bidding process imo.

Well it better push it up by more than 10% cos that's what it's costing us, minimum