AVZ Discussion 2022

[Doc]

Shorters on the other channel all freaking out, underlying comments and posting links.

Avz has enough money to continue these court cases which they will win and make very very uncomfortable for the DRC government. Cominiere told superiors we would go bankrupt and slip away which is not going to happen.

Read a few articles recently about large groups looking for lithium investments in Africa and have billions up their sleeve, draw your own conclusions.

Sucks for people needing cash soon but if reach out to shorters who are desperate to buy shares and close positions.

People are also suggesting we give Dathomir back 15% for $20M despite our court case being a slam dunk against them clearly, an absolute joke and very short sighted.

I’m not concerned at all re delisting despite it being disapointing from an optics perspective

We are already owed close to $1m in court costs granted to us. We keep winning that sum will sky rocket. Making DRC/zijin/Comieniere pay up is another matter. I believe we are still owed money from last June/July court case.

 

[SilentOne]

We are already owed close to $1m in court costs granted to us. We keep winning that sum will sky rocket. Making DRC/zijin/Comieniere pay up is another matter. I believe we are still owed money from last June/July court case.

Hi Doc,

In response to your statement.

Non-compliance with an award from the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) can have several consequences, primarily because such non-compliance directly contravenes the obligations that member states have agreed to under the ICSID Convention. While the Convention itself does not specify penalties for non-compliance, there are indirect repercussions and broader implications for a state that fails to honor an ICSID award. Here are some of the potential consequences:

1. Legal and Financial Consequences:
   • Interest on Unpaid Awards: Typically, ICSID awards include provisions for interest to accrue on any unpaid sums. Thus, the financial burden on the non-compliant state can increase over time as interest accrues on the outstanding amount.
   • Enforcement in Other Jurisdictions: The aggrieved party can seek enforcement of the award in any of the countries that are signatories to the ICSID Convention. This can lead to the seizure or freezing of state assets located in foreign jurisdictions, though this is subject to international laws concerning sovereign immunity.
2. Political and Diplomatic Repercussions:
   • Strain on International Relations: Non-compliance can strain the diplomatic relations between the non-compliant state and the home country of the aggrieved investor, potentially affecting bilateral trade, investment, and political cooperation.
   • Impact on International Standing: Persistent non-compliance or disregard for international arbitration awards can tarnish a state's reputation in the international community, potentially making other countries and international investors wary of engaging with it.
3. Economic and Investment Impact:
   • Reduced Foreign Investment: A reputation for non-compliance with international arbitration awards can deter foreign investors, who may see it as a sign of legal unpredictability and a high-risk environment. This could lead to a decrease in foreign direct investment (FDI), which can be crucial for economic development.
   • Credit Rating and Borrowing Costs: International financial markets and credit rating agencies might view non-compliance as indicative of a broader governance issue, potentially leading to a downgrade in credit ratings. This can increase the cost of borrowing for the country on international markets.
4. Legal Precedents and Future Disputes:
   • Influence on Future Cases: Non-compliance might influence the proceedings and rulings of future international disputes involving the state. Arbitrators in other forums might view the state’s non-compliance as a negative factor, potentially influencing dispute resolution outcomes unfavorably against the state.

While these are not direct "penalties" in the traditional sense of punitive measures imposed by a governing body, they are significant negative consequences that can affect multiple aspects of a nation's political, economic, and legal landscape. States typically weigh these potential repercussions carefully when deciding whether to comply with an ICSID award.

I am not an expert in this area - please do your own research.

Regards,

SilentOne.

 

[RHyNO]

I hope everyone knows this isn't the real Tommy from afr lol

Yeah I am definitely not that bottom feeder!

 

[No_idea]

So, looking down the barrel of a potential sale of the asset, what's it actually worth now?

 

[JAG]

So, looking down the barrel of a potential sale of the asset, what's it actually worth now?

No idea

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Whatever another party is willing to pay

 

[SilentOne]

Whatever another party is willing to pay

Lets hope for a biding war.

The life of the mine and being likely to be able to influence the spot market should support a healthy premium.

Regards,

SilentOne.

 

[BRICK]

No idea

$12

 

[Rediah]

I wanted to stay in exile.... but I think all is not lost IF this end up in ICC. (IMO)

In the past similar thing happened between Australian TCC:ASX and Pakistan where Pakistan couldn't honor the contract because of their internal politics (or whatever their reasons were). Case was taken in the High Court of British Virgin Island resulted in TCC's favor. “.... TCC then approached the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) to resolve the dispute,”

And TCC won $5.9 Billion (they sued for $8.5 Billion, some says $16 Billion) . But since Pakistan was/is still struggling with their poor economy, they couldn't pay the money therefore Pakistan foreign assets were frozen including the Roosevelt Hotel, New York owned by the national airlines of Pakistan, PIA.

Eventually Pakistan agreed and negotiated , see below

View attachment 29208
So, from that precedent, we can only assume that even if DRC cant pay in cash, then they have to pay AVZ in assets/resources, again its my own assessment from the past cases.


More below on TCC vs Pak

Reko Diq case - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

***** Had Pakistan not cancelled the contract with TCC, Pakistan and its people would have been in much better situation, currently Pakistan is on the verge of default with only $4 Billion in their reserves.

This is what i think based on the only case I followed of ICSID.


Pakistan is as corrupt as DRC if not more.. But in DRC case, they are more underdeveloped and hence not as economically strong. The longer these minerals stays underground, the more wait DRC have to do to put their filthy hands on the money from it, so I am sure they would want to expedite this as well even if it means China foot the bill at the end. For DRC, it doesnt matter who owns/mines Manono, at the end of the day all they care is their pockets are filled and are not worried about their international reputation as, either you take it or leave it, as there are already many buyers out there even if it means selling it dirt cheap or at the expense of their people's lives.

Does the ICC/ICSID process works? Yes
Does it take time? Yes... unfortunately it took bit of time in Reko Diq case, even after the first ruling it took 3-4years for money started coming to SHs but it was good money.

Will it get enforced? Yes
Did Pakistan pay? Yes, started paying in 2022 with first payment of $900m, then $2B, and still paying dearly to this day..

And now even Saudi investing in Reko Diq!

At this stage, not sure what more us SH can do other than wait and trust the BoD and let it take its course and stay put. Its not easy, but we have no other option. ( I hope its Prayer emoji and not high five)

 

[Remark]

It didn't take long for this tool to rub his chinese funded hands together with glee...


https://twitter.com/tommyr345/status/1785512081124741459?t=Yhm-V7PZT0kG2YFa5culBg&s=19

 

[TheCount]

Old mate up to his old tricks again..........

 

[SilentOne]

Old mate up to his old tricks again..........

View attachment 61950

I havent lost sleep over AVZ delisting. I think the BOD have been very stretegic about the delisting.

I will sleep soundly tonight.

Ohhh I wonder how the Shorters are sleeping (not really).

Do your own research.

Regards,

SilentOne

 

[TheCount]

 

[Doc]

View attachment 61951

Yeah not the swankiest digs in town but will save us a dollar.

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Pretty modest digs which is good to see, a drop in the ocean with Graeme and Peter Clark’s salaries though, do we need these guys anymore? Prefer to save 450k per annum then require a technical director (bfs in the can) and a chairman who hasn’t done fuck all since he gave himself heaps of options then went into a 2 year halt. I know I’m harping but seriously?

 

[David Krappenschitz]

The one thing I would like to know is the DRC’s reasons for not complying with interim order, like what was their rebuttal to the ICSID ruling exactly? If we knew this we’d have a more decent idea of what’s happening. Guessing that info is not allowed to be released

 

[TheCount]

Pretty modest digs which is good to see, a drop in the ocean with Graeme and Peter Clark’s salaries though, do we need these guys anymore? Prefer to save 450k per annum then require a technical director (bfs in the can) and a chairman who hasn’t done fuck all since he gave himself heaps of options then went into a 2 year halt. I know I’m harping but seriously?

We have a BOD of 11 - how many of those are no longer required? Problem will be separation in their contracts will be just as delicious as those free share and options they've hoovered along the way...

 

[Doc]

The one thing I would like to know is the DRC’s reasons for not complying with interim order, like what was their rebuttal to the ICSID ruling exactly? If we knew this we’d have a more decent idea of what’s happening. Guessing that info is not allowed to be released

DRC's unofficial response was

 

[Samus]

I havent lost sleep over AVZ delisting. I think the BOD have been very stretegic about the delisting.

I will sleep soundly tonight.

Ohhh I wonder how the Shorters are sleeping (not really).

Do your own research.

Regards,

SilentOne

Can't say it's given me the warm and fuzzies silent, but I don't think they had any other choice that wasn't worse.
The position that puts us in isn't fantastic but this whole fucking mess hasn't been fantastic either.

All I'm personally interested in at this point is holding the these fuckers accountable, then I hope we either sell or squeeze billions in compensation out of the cunts over the next decade.

The shit we've witnessed and they've so far got away with you wouldn't even read about it. FMD if you'd told me this is what was going to happen a few years back I'd have told you you're completely out of your fucking mind and laughed in your face.

 

[Nbaz]

If I was a dodgy Chinese business...there's two things I could do...tell CATH to make a take over offer of say 40-50 cents and obviously they would then get the ML and away they go(they would tell the government they would pay all fines also)Or, just sit and wait until AVZ relinquish the tenement then swoop in, that last one has a risk of someone else putting a sweet offer ahead and stealing it.

Maybe this is just hope talking but I think that's our best bet.