AVZ Discussion 2022

[Carlos Danger]

I disagree in regards to Felix agenda. His processes required to eliminate corruption is unknowable to us.

The complexities of the geopolitical structure of DRC are beyond the scope of average AVZ investor. None of us can really make any absolute comments on his administration.

It seems that remnants of the previous government still remain whose support is required for the formation of the coalition government.

Its unrealistic to presume that x amount of years of corruption can be cut out in one fell swoop. I suspect Felix doing deals with devils to stay in power, in order to continue to fight corruption. Could be also to continue lining his pockets.

Your comment on Felix caring about AVZ or Law, could just as easily be inverted to say Manono could be very close to shipping spod right now if he didn't care about law.

Felix promoted CKK . The President and the MoM of mines have handed over responsibility of the Manono Project to Cominiere and their Chinese masters . All this after CKK was found guilty of corruption .

Tim,

You are exactly right in my opinion - Special K will have all the accountability lumped onto him as time passes and I am sure he will go out with a bang and not a whimper.

Someone from the DRC ultimately needs to wear the accountability and it wont be the President or his Ministers.

Just a thought bubble.

SilentOne.

Why would Felix simply not stop the ship from sinking rather than hatching some bizarre plan to let CKK be the fall guy while his vision of a battery hub in the DRC is potentially delayed in international arbitration courts?

Felix is on board with the mantra of resource nationalism. They want a bigger cut of the takings and ultimately aren't afraid to rat fuck us to get it if we won't do a deal as they see the lithium as their property. He literally promoted CKK by Presidential order after the purported termination of the Dathcom JVA and the initiation of the ICSID proceedings. This is all happening on his watch imo

If Felix really believed in AVZ running all of the pride lands he would have signed the MoU before the vote on MMGA. But instead he waited to see if a better option was available. The gringos obviously got him shook. But I think that has more to do with trying to avoid sanctions on his friends than anything else.

The ICSID is the only thing keeping us in the game which to me is a clear sign that he doesn't give a fuck about the law. The DRC mining code is crystal clear about reasons available to the state for termination of a PE. It shouldn't require outside forces to encourage him and the MoM to follow the path of reason but here we are.

 

[BRICK]

What a crock this all is..

While MMGA get away with murder i get my trading platform calling me about buying small parcels of shares on a low SOI stock i hold.

So bent this game.

 

[SilentOne]

Why would Felix simply not stop the ship from sinking rather than hatching some bizarre plan to let CKK be the fall guy while his vision of a battery hub in the DRC is potentially delayed in international arbitration courts?

Felix is on board with the mantra of resource nationalism. They want a bigger cut of the takings and ultimately aren't afraid to rat fuck us to get it if we won't do a deal as they see the lithium as their property. He literally promoted CKK by Presidential order after the purported termination of the Dathcom JVA and the initiation of the ICSID proceedings. This is all happening on his watch imo

If Felix really believed in AVZ running all of the pride lands he would have signed the MoU before the vote on MMGA. But instead he waited to see if a better option was available. The gringos obviously got him shook. But I think that has more to do with trying to avoid sanctions on his friends than anything else.

The ICSID is the only thing keeping us in the game which to me is a clear sign that he doesn't give a fuck about the law. The DRC mining code is crystal clear about reasons available to the state for termination of a PE. It shouldn't require outside forces to encourage him and the MoM to follow the path of reason but here we are.

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From what I understand Felix wanted $13 billion from the World Bank which was knocked back. The World Bank has delayed $1 Billion which the DRC was to receive because of corruption and a lack of transparency. The Chinese are not likely going to provide that sought of funding.

I think my money is on the ICSID, ICC and by default the World Bank.

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out, but I think the World Bank trumps SinBin.


SilentOne

 

[Colaci78]

Didn't someone say on here it wasn't even a face to face, explains why there was no picture.

Yes, I read that also.

 

[wombat74]

Wombat,

I am intrigued by your thinking?


SilentOne

More time wasting . Someone said previously it's an 18 month to 3year process .

 

[9cardomaha]

More time wasting . Someone said previously it's an 18 month to 3year process .

Getting back to business.

The updates on ICSID last week were to set a timetable for proceedings, and then also set the emergency requests of AVZ against the DRC. Procedural order 1 is the timeline:

1. November 23, 2023: DRC submits a response to the request for provisional measures.
2. November 30, 2023: AVZ file a reply to the request for provisional measures.
3. December 11, 2023: hearing on the request for provisional measures involving all parties.

As an emergency request, and having Christmas, this should be ruled on before 24th December. I believe we have a strong case, given our win at the ICC and the ICSID chairman even mentioning the ICC win as a basis for the final 'measures' which will be heard on 11th December.

AVZ's emergency requests

• Suspend PR 13359 and PR 15775.
• Halt all mining activities by entities other than Dathcom within the mentioned permits.
• Restrain the DRC from taking any administrative actions prejudicial to the Claimants' interests.

DRC just submitted their responses to these requests, saying they are 'just another tactic to stall the project' - herp derp.

DLA will respond by the 30th and make additional claims, counter arguements against DRC etc. The arbitrator will then issue final requests to be heard o the 5th December. I don't think they will increase or decrease, the three are likely to just remain as is. TICSID tribunal will also determine the fine or penalty for breaking the injunction before the hearing.

I believe that once we have the measures in place, we can start to discuss, also because DLA will be looking to submit damages claims after securing the injunctions. Which will provide more leverage on coming to a negotiated settlement.

For the actual timeline if we need to go through with it all, it is below:

1. March 1, 2024: Claimants submit a Memorandum.
2. July 26, 2024: Production of documents and objections deadline for both parties.
3. August 9, 2024: Claimants and Respondent provide responses to objections to document production.
4. September 27, 2024: Tribunal issues a decision on document production.
5. May 5, 2025: Identification of witnesses and experts for cross-examination by both Claimants and Respondent.
6. June 2-4, 2025 (June 5 reserved): Scheduled hearing involving all parties.

 

[wombat74]

Didn't someone say on here it wasn't even a face to face, explains why there was no picture.

"Recent correspondence between AVZ and the DRC Government has been constructive and highlights the clearly positive and ongoing relationship between both parties. Importantly, and most recently, AVZ’s Managing Director, Nigel Ferguson, sat with His Excellency President Tshisekedi, to discuss these matters." AVZ 9/10/23.

Sorry I was tripped up by the , "recently Nigel sat with His Excellency President Tshisekedi to discuss matters " thingy . Misinterpreted the meaning. Wasn't aware someone had cleared up the misunderstanding . Cheers .

 

[9cardomaha]

I will add, it has been a shame that Z was able to get their legal counsel onto the ICSID team for the DRC....

The original team didn't even have a cohesive argument and was using dogshit DRC local media reports as submissions.... Fasken's inclusion has beefed up the detractor team, but the arguments remain the same weak piss shit that they submitted to the ICC (where they;ve just recieved a loss in AVZ v Cominiere).

Not hyping it up, but odds are in our favour, albiet not as good as they were prior to fasken.

 

[whales]

This time last year most shaeholders were saying if we're still not trading next AGM then the bod will have lost my support

Now they're saying the exact same

Same thing will happen next year imo

Last weeks vote was a choice of continuing the status quo path of arbitration or making a deal on unfavourable terms

We have to accept the outcome of this decision wherever it may lead and however long it takes. We are now all responsible for the suspension mission creep. If Felix gave any fucks about AVZ or the law this all would have been over months ago imo

Summed up well.
Hopefully Felix can use the ICC results to wash his hands and strike a deal.
Otherwise ALL trust would be lost in the DRC to the sad detriment to his people.
His voice on upholding the law will be a complete farce and Western and European investment stalled.
Maybe the love of his Rolex watches are a priority ?

 

[wombat74]

I will add, it has been a shame that Z was able to get their legal counsel onto the ICSID team for the DRC....

The original team didn't even have a cohesive argument and was using dogshit DRC local media reports as submissions.... Fasken's inclusion has beefed up the detractor team, but the arguments remain the same weak piss shit that they submitted to the ICC (where they;ve just recieved a loss in AVZ v Cominiere).

Not hyping it up, but odds are in our favour, albiet not as good as they were prior to fasken.

Are you confident we will secure the $20 mil ?

 

[Carlos Danger]

DRC just submitted their responses to these requests, saying they are 'just another tactic to stall the project'

 

[wombat74]

Summed up well.
Hopefully Felix can use the ICC results to wash his hands and strike a deal.
Otherwise ALL trust would be lost in the DRC to the sad detriment to his people.
His voice on upholding the law will be a complete farce and Western and European investment stalled.
Maybe the love of his Rolex watches are a priority ?

The DRC has over $24 Trillion dollars worth of minerals and was ranked the 4th poorest Country on planet earth in 2023. 96% of the population survive on less than $6 a day . The DRC gov clearly don't give a f--k .

 

[9cardomaha]

Are you confident we will secure the $20 mil ?

I had my doubts about Locke - they wouldn't be in my top picks for financing.... Wasn't able to find any track record of successful funding. Also wanted to let tse members know that paying for DD isn't unusual in these highly complex cases which involve multiple parties and high-risk sovereignties, so that didn't set off any red flags for me.

I think passing the first round of DD with them is promising, if we nab the win at ICSID before christmas, should increase the chances of funding significantly.

Any litigation funder is, in the end, not on the side of justice, but to make bank.... i'd say 85%+ for confirmed funding if ICSID remains impervious to snacks and brown baggies.

 

[wombat74]

I had my doubts about Locke - they wouldn't be in my top picks for financing.... Wasn't able to find any track record of successful funding. Also wanted to let tse members know that paying for DD isn't unusual in these highly complex cases which involve multiple parties and high-risk sovereignties, so that didn't set off any red flags for me.

I think passing the first round of DD with them is promising, if we nab the win at ICSID before christmas, should increase the chances of funding significantly.

Any litigation funder is, in the end, not on the side of justice, but to make bank.... i'd say 85%+ for confirmed funding if ICSID remains impervious to snacks and brown baggies.

Thanks for the response . I guess they (or anyone ) are only going to commit if they are 100% certain they will get a return $$.

 

[9cardomaha]

Thanks for the response . I guess they (or anyone ) are only going to commit if they are 100% certain they will get a return $$.

If Pei wasn't a back stabbing cunt fuck... I originally thought CATH could bank roll us through this, which would have been a testament to the support for us.

But now there's just another link in the human-CCPentipede

 

[wombat74]

If Pei wasn't a back stabbing cunt fuck... I originally thought CATH could bank roll us through this, which would have been a testament to the support for us.

But now there's just another link in the human-CCPentipede

Pei probably got a tap on the shoulder from Beijing . Xi Jinping openly said China must secure major lithium deposits world wide .

 

[Earlyspeed]

Getting back to business.

The updates on ICSID last week were to set a timetable for proceedings, and then also set the emergency requests of AVZ against the DRC. Procedural order 1 is the timeline:

1. November 23, 2023: DRC submits a response to the request for provisional measures.
2. November 30, 2023: AVZ file a reply to the request for provisional measures.
3. December 11, 2023: hearing on the request for provisional measures involving all parties.

As an emergency request, and having Christmas, this should be ruled on before 24th December. I believe we have a strong case, given our win at the ICC and the ICSID chairman even mentioning the ICC win as a basis for the final 'measures' which will be heard on 11th December.

AVZ's emergency requests

• Suspend PR 13359 and PR 15775.
• Halt all mining activities by entities other than Dathcom within the mentioned permits.
• Restrain the DRC from taking any administrative actions prejudicial to the Claimants' interests.

DRC just submitted their responses to these requests, saying they are 'just another tactic to stall the project' - herp derp.

DLA will respond by the 30th and make additional claims, counter arguements against DRC etc. The arbitrator will then issue final requests to be heard o the 5th December. I don't think they will increase or decrease, the three are likely to just remain as is. TICSID tribunal will also determine the fine or penalty for breaking the injunction before the hearing.

I believe that once we have the measures in place, we can start to discuss, also because DLA will be looking to submit damages claims after securing the injunctions. Which will provide more leverage on coming to a negotiated settlement.

For the actual timeline if we need to go through with it all, it is below:

1. March 1, 2024: Claimants submit a Memorandum.
2. July 26, 2024: Production of documents and objections deadline for both parties.
3. August 9, 2024: Claimants and Respondent provide responses to objections to document production.
4. September 27, 2024: Tribunal issues a decision on document production.
5. May 5, 2025: Identification of witnesses and experts for cross-examination by both Claimants and Respondent.
6. June 2-4, 2025 (June 5 reserved): Scheduled hearing involving all parties.

9Card, in these types of proceedings can witnesses for cross examination include Ministers of the relevant country? It is possible that MoM and MoP are called upon to be cross examined in such a proceeding? Your postings on the behind the scenes legal machinations are much appreciated

 

[JNRB]

Pei probably got a tap on the shoulder from Beijing . Xi Jinping openly said China must secure major lithium deposits world wide .

If that's their goal that's fine. We've already laid out a pathway to that for them.

$12

 

[9cardomaha]

9Card, in these types of proceedings can witnesses for cross examination include Ministers of the relevant country? It is possible that MoM and MoP are called upon to be cross examined in such a proceeding? Your postings on the behind the scenes legal machinations are much appreciated

ICSID doesnt have power to issue subpoenas at the request of the parties, even though under article 43, they should be all fair game because they are 'party to the proceedings, ie part of the DRC government'.

There have been instances, (non-drc examples), where the claimants have received a subpoena in their home country, and ICSID then enforces that, to have the witness attend. But local DRC courts... HMMMMMM.

ICSID can only enforce the production of documents or other evidence as requested between AVZ and DRC. So we could ask them for email correspondence or WeChat logs. But can't ask for X minister and Y minister to appear (we could invite them but that probably won't happen, and Fasken won't open that can of worms).

 

[Samus]

June 2-4, 2025 (June 5 reserved): Scheduled hearing involving all parties.

That's depressing.