AVZ Discussion 2022

[The Fox]

Wombat celebrating at Mickeys party with his one million shares!
Hope you're right Fox with next week's call re the ML but from what I'm hearing is, Obe might be closer to the trading celebrations!
Good luck to everyone, it's getting bloody exciting!
Cheers,
Nells

If Micky's party happens as expected, I suggested a few days might be needed to flick the switch on trading, can't see it all happening on the same day. Conversely, the process could be AVZ releasing all info prior so the party goes off big time, but I think the former is more likely. I doubt an AVZ resumption of trading date is locked in, yet I do find myself thinking about dearly departed Batman Adam West for the last week. Obe is probably more of a Jimmy Fallon fan I'd be guessing, same same.

 

[Xerof]

Well, it's my wife's birthday on the 14th. ffs, Nigel, do what you can fella, have some decency, as I haven't got a present yet

 

[JAG]

Woah woah woah it was JAGs nut up for the chop not mine mate …..

I’m leaving my nuts out of this show…

Avz is upstairs so they can see us coming .. & that’s one of beisha’s gems sitting out front btw…. Absolute Weapon he bought with ASN money … I know Frank would be frothing over that absolute mint farm hack

BTW staff parking around the back…

GLTAH

And just to remind everyone. My left nut was, was (key word...was} on the chopping block with regards to arbitration of which we have not attended and never will

 

[MoneyBags1348]

If AVZ's offer to Cominiere is accepted and implemented at the current shares outstanding of 3.529b then I expect 307m shares to be added to the AVZ register for the DRC government taking total AVZ shares outstanding to 3.836b.

3.836 (100%) - 3.529 (92%) = 0.307 (8%)

The 307m shares would be worth $239.4m AUD at the current share price of 0.78 which at today's AUDUSD exchange rate of 0.67 is worth $160.4m USD. Which leaves a balance of $5.6m USD ($8.3m AUD) left to be paid in cash for a total of $166m USD.

I have rounded these numbers and they are sensitive to the moving exchange rate so they could change a bit. Also the offer was made at a significantly lower share price which would have meant the 8% was worth less and more cash would have been part of the deal.

Will the DRC government be happy with less cash up front?

Not sure and maybe this has been part of the hold up. Again my belief is the preservation of the value of the 8% is a part of why we have been in suspension. There was a major drop in our share price after the Ministerial Decree on May 4th 2022 from around 1.20 to around the current price of 0.78. I don't attribute all of that to just concerns about the Zijin rumours as AVZ never held or claimed to own the 15% in question. Other forces were at play in my opinion.

Just over a year ago Zijin bought around 80m AVZ shares through a subsidiary of a subsidiary called Bellamel (Norton Gold Fields is the middle company). They got salty when we announced the CATL deal and sold enough of those shares to get out of the top 20.


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My belief is Zijin didn't sell all of their holdings and possibly had more shares in other subsidiaries that they were using to push down the value of our offer to the DRC government on May 4th. Management would have been aware of who was selling that week as they get the updated register once transactions have cleared. So the timing of the suspension the week after matches my theory.

Also in general more shares being issued by a company is a dilution of value for existing shareholders. If we do get up to 5b shares and a $20b market cap then those shares would be worth $4.00 each as you say. If we get to the $20b market cap at the 3.83b shares I'm expecting then those shares would be worth around $5.22 each.

Nigel said in interviews earlier this year that the boards preference moving forward is to use debt for financing future costs rather than issuing more shares to maximise future shareholder value. Also we have secured $500m USD in financing for the construction of the mine according to Christian Lukusa in the interview the other day. If we do need to issue more shares then so be it but I can't see us needing to go over 4b shares total.

Thanks Carlos, a really great post (and much better than I’m seeing from my arch enemy Cash - Darth - Citious).

I agree with all you’ve said. I take into account possible capital raises for expansion, a pls plant, getting those types of things underway before we are producing and other things like that. I don’t really think we’ll get to 5 billion SOI but I do consider the possibilities. What I’m wondering at the moment (not concerned but just how my mind works) is how much we owe Momentum Attorneys and the other legal team (was it DL Piper, I’ve forgotten) after four months.

I’m confident with the shape we are in, just pissed off at the bullshit from Cominiere, Dathomir and the others arsewipes holding up FID, but when you see the price of CXO and LTR over the last few weeks, we could hit $2 pretty quickly.

I just like to consider all the possibilities, and love to get great answers to them like your post

The mind works in mysterious ways, I was just now considering the implications of JAG’s and Cash-Darth-Citious left nuts in a pineapple smoothie, but heard the Queen passed away overnight and respectfully want to say, she was a great old girl, will be missed by many and will be happily reunited with the Duke and planning their return to hopefully make this world a better place

 

[TDITD]

Was the wave machine in the BFS?

Jeez, reading your post gave me a semi @TDITD

Dairy Queen on the crapper seems confident for a 15th resumption- 3 items reported, only second post on AVZ. Illusion of being informed

You got one reading it, imagine what I was like writing it. Can I recommend these for when the announcements start flowing :
https://www.bigw.com.au/product/moki-screen-wipes-50-wipes/p/781629
Edit, link didnt work
Didn't see wave machine in the DFS but I'm sure it won't make a material difference to the numbers in the BFS

 

[CeckRaiseFold]

View attachment 16158
I’m so desperate for news at this point I googled AVZ office and I’m ready to ask Stanton how the mood seems in staff coming/going from the AVZ offices… anyone in WA wanna go on a stakeout?

Haha, too funny I was thinking about doing just that the other day!! Stake the joint, check local cafes, do whatever it takes tocheck the mood

 

[TDITD]

If Micky's party happens as expected, I suggested a few days might be needed to flick the switch on trading, can't see it all happening on the same day. Conversely, the process could be AVZ releasing all info prior so the party goes off big time, but I think the former is more likely. I doubt an AVZ resumption of trading date is locked in, yet I do find myself thinking about dearly departed Batman Adam West for the last week. Obe is probably more of a Jimmy Fallon fan I'd be guessing, same same.

I'm thinking it'll be Augustus Caesars birthday bash, feel like I've been waiting as long as that too.

 

[Remark]

Can we be entirely sure that the Fox isn't actually Nigel Ferguson? I mean with all the missed deadlines it seems very familiar

Just kidding Fox, I love your work!

 

[mouseflying]

I'm thinking it'll be Augustus Caesars birthday bash, feel like I've been waiting as long as that too.

23rd? It's my birthday as well

 

[MoneyBags1348]

And just to remind everyone. My left nut was, was (key word...was} on the chopping block with regards to arbitration of which we have not attended and never will

I was just thinking JAG, when we are back trading with full ownership of everything, massive BFS with high speed transport routes starting to battery manufacturing and car manufacturing facilities and CATL and Tesla trying to out bid each other for our multi decade supply of high grade lithium, I might give @Frank a call and come over to the west to celebrate with you Cash, Nuts, BEISH and the boys

It might not be quite like the Star Hotel riot that Novocastrians are used to, but I’m thinking it just might be a little like this:

 

[JAG]

I was just thinking JAG, when we are back trading with full ownership of everything, massive BFS with high speed transport routes starting to battery manufacturing and car manufacturing facilities and CATL and Tesla trying to out bid each other for our multi decade supply of high grade lithium, I might give @Frank a call and come over to the west to celebrate with you Cash, Nuts, BEISH and the boys

It might not be quite like the Star Hotel riot that Novocastrians are used to, but I’m thinking it just might be a little like this:

I'm still waiting for the Mouse to show up and pay for the 20 cent backslapping, unicorn party as promised......

 

[John25]

Appreciate whatever you've got to share/speculate The Fox.

Hey let me ask you a hypothetical question, just for fun.
If you were offered to place a bet on the Suspension being lifted on or before... say the 21st of this month,
lets say 2:1 payout, would you take that bet (just hypothetically) and if so, how much money would you bet?

I wouldn't mind hearing Obe Wan's thoughts on this bet too

Did Someone mention racesGo AVZ

 

[John25]

I was just thinking JAG, when we are back trading with full ownership of everything, massive BFS with high speed transport routes starting to battery manufacturing and car manufacturing facilities and CATL and Tesla trying to out bid each other for our multi decade supply of high grade lithium, I might give @Frank a call and come over to the west to celebrate with you Cash, Nuts, BEISH and the boys

It might not be quite like the Star Hotel riot that Novocastrians are used to, but I’m thinking it just might be a little like this:

Be nice to have you fellows over in the Wild West .Uncle Mark is pretty fussy who he lets in …but a “snack” might make him happy

 

[The Fox]

Did Someone mention racesGo AVZ
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His father was a mudder his mother was a mudder !!

 

[Winenut]

His father was a mudder his mother was a mudder !!

Loves the slop

 

[The Fox]

Can we be entirely sure that the Fox isn't actually Nigel Ferguson? I mean with all the missed deadlines it seems very familiar

Just kidding Fox, I love your work!

 

[John25]

Ok ok ok .....Have work to do ..... although not feeling it .... a detached retina has been used ( Count) ... maybe a detached rectum might be the go ...anything for a long weekend ....have a great day ....hoping for an announcement...I think it’s a 80s classic

 

[CHB]

So has anyone said or asked the question yet..

Now that the Queen has passed, our birthday party could potentially be delayed, depending on who needs to be where etc

Just a possibility

 

[wombat74]

Can we expect Chinese manipulation of the SP when we reopen ? Or once the dust settles will forces be too great and the SP heads to where it should be well north of $1 ?

 

[Winenut]

Can we expect Chinese manipulation of the SP when we reopen ? Or once the dust settles will forces be too great and the SP heads to where it should be well north of $1 ?

Yes..