AVZ has been informed that the resolution of AVZ's interest in the Manono Project"""""" is supported by Fat Tail. """
As a consequence of the discontinuance, Fat Tail no longer seeks any relief from the court against AVZ, Mr Ferguson and Mr Clarke.
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
As a consequence of the discontinuance, Fat Tail no longer seeks any relief from the court against AVZ, Mr Ferguson and Mr Clarke.
Is there a source for this or is this A.I. generated?Why a Sale of AVZ’s Interest Could Exceed $3: Strategic Lithium, Superpower Competition, and Market Influence
The potential sale or buyout of AVZ Minerals' interest in the Manono Lithium and Tin Project could fetch well above $3 per share, and not simply due to the underlying resource size—but because of its geopolitical and economic leverage in the context of global lithium supply. Several converging factors point to a scenario where bidding pressure and strategic motivations could drive a premium sale valuation well beyond what traditional discounted cash flow (DCF) models would suggest.
1. Strategic Asset in the U.S.–China Lithium Arms Race
Control over the Manono deposit represents more than ownership of a mine—it signifies influence over one of the largest undeveloped hard-rock lithium deposits on Earth. In a world increasingly split between Western and Chinese supply chains, whoever controls Manono gains long-term leverage over:
Both China and the United States are acutely aware of this. China already controls over 70% of global lithium processing and has significant upstream access via companies like Zijin Mining and CATL, both of whom are linked to the original Manono ownership dispute. Meanwhile, the United States—under bipartisan pressure to secure critical minerals—has already backed U.S.-aligned entities like KoBold Metals to gain influence over Manono.
- Battery supply chains, particularly for EVs and energy storage;
- Pricing power in global lithium markets;
- Political capital in green energy policy and strategic mineral diplomacy.
2. Geopolitical Premium on Ownership
The Manono deposit is not just a resource; it's a strategic lever.
If AVZ were to sell its controlling interest to a U.S.-aligned buyer, the DRC could eliminate Chinese control over a globally strategic deposit, shifting long-term supply dynamics toward the West. Such a deal may be viewed by buyers not just in terms of profitability, but strategic denial—i.e., keeping China out of the asset. In this environment, willingness to pay is based on geopolitical utility, not just cash flow.
This "strategic premium" could easily push the transaction value well above traditional fair market value—possibly translating to a per-share price north of $3 for AVZ shareholders, especially under competitive bidding conditions between Chinese and U.S.-aligned entities.
3. Lithium Spot Market Influence: OPEC-Like Dynamics Emerging
Control of Manono also carries implications for the global lithium spot market, which remains volatile and supply-sensitive. While the lithium market is not yet cartelized, the influence of large, centralized producers is growing—mirroring early-stage dynamics seen in oil markets decades ago.
A single party with long-term offtake control over Manono could:
This type of soft power is especially attractive to both Chinese and U.S. interests. In a world transitioning rapidly to electric mobility and grid-scale battery storage, price control over lithium is a proxy for economic advantage.
- Throttle or accelerate supply to manage price dynamics;
- Influence contract negotiations with downstream battery producers;
- Establish strategic reserves or price floors through coordinated supply action.
If AVZ is the gatekeeper to that influence—even if only for a limited equity stake—the negotiation value of its interest increases significantly.
4. Scarcity and First-Mover Advantage
Very few projects globally offer:
In a world where time-to-market and ESG compliance are critical, Manono is one of only a handful of assets capable of entering large-scale production this decade. First-mover access to a Tier-1 lithium resource with geopolitical backing can command a substantial premium in a competitive sale.
- Over 800 million tonnes of lithium-bearing ore;
- High grades of 1.6–1.7% Li₂O;
- An advanced permitting and feasibility position;
- And now, improving security and political support (via peace deals and U.S. alignment).
Final Thought
While speculative, the case for a sale price exceeding $3 per share for AVZ is credible when viewed through a geopolitical and strategic lens, rather than just pure project economics. The intersection of:
...creates a unique opportunity for AVZ to realize outsized value upon exit.
- A world-class lithium deposit;
- Great power competition between the U.S. and China;
- The potential to shape global lithium pricing;
- And DRC’s newfound incentive to align with Western interests...
Disclaimer:
This is not financial or investment advice. It is an opinion only and subject to error. You should always do your own research, consider your personal risk profile, and consult a qualified adviser before making any investment decisions. The lithium sector, while promising, is highly speculative and politically complex.
I speculate $ 3.50 is the minimum price the board will consider.
Clearly AI, likely based on a one-dimensional user prompt along the lines of "provide reasoning why the sale of AVZ's interests could exceed 3 dollars".
KentCStrait
Regular
That would be wonderful, but KoBold have us over a barrel. The bidding "war" we were hoping for hasn't eventuated. The Chinese rat fuckers went in through the back door and stole the north. The US rat fuckers have come in through the front door, smiling and waving, to steal the south.
Keep hoping for the best, but prepare for the worst.
Not necessarily. NF has mentioned other US interest. That could potentially force Kobold to present a more realistic bid or risk losing out.
On 17 July 2025, KoBold Metals and the DRC govt signed an agreement in principle covering a range of things, notably for KoBold to acquire and develop Roche Dure and resolve the outstanding legal disputes. However, low-balling AVZ is unlikely to get KoBold any traction. AVZ retains the option of simply letting the ICC and ICSID arbitrations continue to their conclusions.
Until the DRC govt rescinds or expands the agreement to include other interested parties, a bidding war may not eventuate. However, what may eventuate is an expanded KoBold bid that includes a financier and a big miner to share the financial load and ensure a mine and processing facilities are built and operated within time and budget.
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