AVZ Discussion 2022

[Bray]

Would be great to get some clarity from Felix T on his stand against corruption and following the mining act in the DRC.

He cannot do that as it goes against his peoples (china)

 

[Xerof]

Coming for you Tom and others, merry fucking christmas

The Company is continuing to investigate the conduct of certain third parties and the unauthorised disclosure of confidential and privileged information over the past 12 months 1, particularly in light of the voting information available to the Company following the AGM, and importantly as to whether there are any regulatory implications of such conduct.

1 Commencing in December 2022 following publication of certain articles in the Australian Financial Review by Tom Richardson on 12 and 20 December 2022.

 

[Dave Evans]

Coming for you Tom and others, merry fucking christmas

The Company is continuing to investigate the conduct of certain third parties and the unauthorised disclosure of confidential and privileged information over the past 12 months 1, particularly in light of the voting information available to the Company following the AGM, and importantly as to whether there are any regulatory implications of such conduct.

1 Commencing in December 2022 following publication of certain articles in the Australian Financial Review by Tom Richardson on 12 and 20 December 2022.

And plenty of shareholders on TSE with stored evidence of their disinformation. It might be time to repost this one of tommy’s deliberate attempt to mislead people into thinking a group of locals in the DRC were protesting against AVZ

 

[Xerof]

The 20 December article is on Bags's AFR thread - it's the one where Tommy mentions Zoe, Joseph's sister

 

[Dave Evans]

Coming for you Tom and others, merry fucking christmas

The Company is continuing to investigate the conduct of certain third parties and the unauthorised disclosure of confidential and privileged information over the past 12 months 1, particularly in light of the voting information available to the Company following the AGM, and importantly as to whether there are any regulatory implications of such conduct.

1 Commencing in December 2022 following publication of certain articles in the Australian Financial Review by Tom Richardson on 12 and 20 December 2022.

Here’s some information on Fat Tail and MMGA. I don’t really know what to make of it yet, I just thought I would put it here so I can reference it easier down the track.

Fat Tail registered in March 2023. MMGA registered in August 2023.

The information was from @9cardomaha @aanti.dumb and @protoje

Domain registered 6 days ago with "redacted" registrar details.

 

[forestgump]

If i had the time and money i would register domains for .com.au and variations to makemanonogreatagain such as MMGA etc.

 

[wombat74]

• ICC Emergency injunction 2 (post 15775) submitted October 30, emergency ruling Nov 15.
• ICC tribunal already formed and waiting for submissions before Dec 15 - enforcement will come around January for breaches already incurred.
• Emergency measures request ICSID Nov 7, Tribunal response Nov 20 with measures and timetables, sets Dec 11 hearing - verdict likely before Christmas.

MMGA's bullshit about LOCKE is just a scare tactic - and clearly has sown doubt so hopefully this helps people focus a little.

Don't go drinking the MMGA cool-aid...

Sorry to bring up the topic again . What is the method of extraction when it comes to collecting the $$$ from Cominiere ? Where are the $$$ coming from ? Does AVZ get it in one lump sum or can the DRC delay it or f--k us around and drip feed it ? Clearly if AVZ can access this money then concerns around running costs and legal expenses disappear completely . 1 million $$$ a week in fines is in and of itself a decent business and Cominiere is being very accommodating providing proof on a regular basis of their breach. Cheers

 

[BRICK]

He cannot do that as it goes against his peoples (china)

DRC= Democratic republ of CONGO

Here’s some information on Fat Tail and MMGA. I don’t really know what to make of it yet, I just thought I would put it here so I can reference it easier down the track.

Fat Tail registered in March 2023. MMGA registered in August 2023.

The information was from @9cardomaha @aanti.dumb and @protoje

Domain registered 6 days ago with "redacted" registrar details.

BTW last time i checked makemanonogreatagain.com.au was available to regiser

 

[JAG]

 

[Birdman7]

View attachment 50907

Great pickup @JAG. I completely missed it!

 

[wombat74]

Excellent Tweet by Jens

Jens Emil Soderlund
@emil_jens

$AVZ so ppl asking me what’s next - not an easy question to answer IMO Note: Below are my views based on observations and local intel from Congolese;
1. MMGACIC huge tick, as been booted and this has now to get back to DRC higher powers (PR, MoP, MoJ, Mom etc), so question remains will this be enough to readdress our MoU, which has been drafted up, reviewed and ready to sign ? Personally, I don’t think so as geo political landscape is getting muddier and more complicated (elections - EU has withdrawn their team for coming elections);

2.
As a local Congolese contact commented re EU withdrawal of electoral experts “IF THERE ARE REAL ELECTIONS” So he is hinting will this be another rigged election ?

3. The two main opponents to Mr Felix Tshisekedi, who are the most popular are Katumbi and Fayulu - leading contender more Moise Katumbi. Best outcome for us SHs is IF one of these contenders or both bring up “AVZ file” as an exemple how corrupt Sama2 has been and use this file as debate topic (as here Australian followed their Law and Minining Code down to a tee, and see you let Chinese Zijin steal it out from under their nose) or

4.
Will any opponent go as far as calling out the PR as a traitor ((selling out his country, as in still too much corruption) and which still carries the death sentence in DRC)), but I doubt this will happen as society / government will be thrown into kaos and even a sound mind of any opponent wouldn’t want this for their People / country, as all know democracies are not built over a day.

5.
ICC / Washington / ICSID. It is well known in local circles that the Cominiere informed his superiors (MoP, MoM, MoJ and higher up to PR, that AVZ has done nada in PR15775, as in not proving up any resource in that area - we all know this is an outright lie (CdL and more), once this is known and proven to higher powers, this hopefully will - minimum - move the boarder line to original ML decree (where South was much higher up than so claimed Manono Lithium (Zijin)), and North originally was to provided to us as an extended exploration license) Conclusion, with all above taken into consideration, worst case we will have an MoU / ML for the “original” South, the million dollar question is how soon or after elections Q1 next year under a new PM (like VK) and where MoP is moved to some other small ministerial function.

So yes, IMO Mr Tshisekedi will be re-elected again, whether rightfully or not. In the meantime, we will just have to witness Zijin drilling on an area of Manono (since November 15), part of which drillings has already been proven up with the blessing of corrupt Cominiere; Lisette, Célestin and Adele #Zijin but there will IMO be consequences here (as in at least moving the Manono Lithium further North). Next couple of months will be a nervy one for all, both for locals and us foreign investors and hope that the higher powers in DRC will take ICC further findings seriously and address AVZ file, accordingly. As for ICSID - any incumbent would have to take this seriously, last trump card - that has to disappear - otherwise no more funding from current stalled 1bn USD World Bank funds !! Jens Emil Soderlund

 

[cruiser51]

I think he meant he is the llunch?

lynch?

 

[Cumquat Cap]

How much is the Rd/South worth in everyone's estimation? would be nice to get this moving whilst they bicker over the northern portion FFS

 

[9cardomaha]

Sorry to bring up the topic again . What is the method of extraction when it comes to collecting the $$$ from Cominiere ? Where are the $$$ coming from ? Does AVZ get it in one lump sum or can the DRC delay it or f--k us around and drip feed it ? Clearly if AVZ can access this money then concerns around running costs and legal expenses disappear completely . 1 million $$$ a week in fines is in and of itself a decent business and Cominiere is being very accommodating providing proof on a regular basis of their breach. Cheers

Taking a step back, we have ongoing cases against them so non-payment on emergency rulings will look poorly on them - so logically they can't just do a runner.

If they do a runner*, because lets face it they probably don't care about ICC cases and its just to drain our funds - I've mentioned before that ICC and ICSID have the power to intercept payments from most international banks and institutions. DLA just need to raise this point to the courts - and wouldn't you know it, if you don't pay according to ICC and ICSID, they don't really favour you going forward.

*This is a possibility for sure.... Refusing to pay is classic DRC, playing the victim, crying poor etc. but there is precedence for intercepting payments which is easy to argue.

For the way payments work, if the damages amount is high, they will draft the payment scheme. If its payment to the Arbitrator and legal teams, its a lump sum immediately, but won't go through AVZ, payable directly to DLA and ICC/ICSID.

We can even ask the courts to force securitization at the next hearings which puts a portion of the payable amount into escrow and will be paid upon a verdict. I'd say with the penalty ticking up to 100mil, we could ask for 20mil as security without much issue - then just work on the verdict and 20mil instant in the bank with the following 80mil that we have to chase up.

Obviously leaving it to DLA and BOD to decide, but that's my takeaway, and why i'm cool as a cucumber.

DYOR.

 

[Roon]

Taking a step back, we have ongoing cases against them so non-payment on emergency rulings will look poorly on them - so logically they can't just do a runner.

If they do a runner*, because lets face it they probably don't care about ICC cases and its just to drain our funds - I've mentioned before that ICC and ICSID have the power to intercept payments from most international banks and institutions. DLA just need to raise this point to the courts - and wouldn't you know it, if you don't pay according to ICC and ICSID, they don't really favour you going forward.

*This is a possibility for sure.... Refusing to pay is classic DRC, playing the victim, crying poor etc. but there is precedence for intercepting payments which is easy to argue.

For the way payments work, if the damages amount is high, they will draft the payment scheme. If its payment to the Arbitrator and legal teams, its a lump sum immediately, but won't go through AVZ, payable directly to

I guess another question is where would Cominiere come up with 20million USD, let alone 100m? I can't imagine they are often receiving transactions with these kind of funds that could be intercepted, given they were complaining before about not having the cash available to fund their operations as is. ZIJIN could stump up I guess, but I can't see them making that easy for us given they are trying to choke us into the ground. I know Cominiere have made selling off tenements into an art form and not depositing the funds into the government coffers, but this doesn't seem to happen all that regularly and seemingly rarely at the lofty figures we may expect if 100k keeps ticking over. I wonder what their operating budget is and whether that's something that could be intercepted- though that would put the government off.

 

[JNRB]

Hi all, very interesting read8ng peoples comments on what might happen next now we're out of the MMGA chapter.

I'd be interested what everyone's thoughts are on our relationship with CATH. They sided with MMGA right? So now that they've public sided with a Chinese cartel that's against the interests of most shareholders...

Is it still good keeping them involved?
I always thought they were a good complement to the project, but can we still consider them a reliable partner knowing they will willingly conspire with other Chinese parties to screw other shareholders out of their interests? Or is that just the risk of business?

CATH was always getting a great deal. If they'd wanted to sign the dotted line before mining license I'm sure they could have, but they didn't. And a lit has changed since then. $20mil break fee? Well probably end up getting that much in damages. Or another party willing to stump it up as part of a better deal. But I assume TIA has a clause about not engaging with other parties, but given WhatsApp happend and how long the process has dragged out I wonder how valid such a claus would still be.

I don't know who would replace them, but um sure other parties have approached AVZ about creating an alternatieve arrangement (Saudis?).

CATH bring processing knowledge and funding that could help the project grow,
But they also got a stupid cheap deal and have now shown they're wilting to conspire against other holders.
But if they weren't involved the Democratic Republic of Chingo might continue to freak out about a mining operation with no local Chinese involvement.

So where does that leave us?

 

[Cumquat Cap]

Some great points raised, I personally would prefer to piss them off entirely in lieu of another partner - Saudi's, US et al.

Problem is it is difficult to ascertain the market for a JV partner and whether other countries would scoff at the DRC exposure, avz' plight in the media certainty isn't helping.

We're stuck between a rock and a Chinese miner currently and I would prefer to get rid of Pei and CATH as their allegiances will always be CCP.

I have heard a few rumours that Felix doesn't want any Chinese around Manono which I doubt is true given what we have seen over the past 12 months.

Nightmare currently

 

[9cardomaha]

I guess another question is where would Cominiere come up with 20million USD, let alone 100m? I can't imagine they are often receiving transactions with these kind of funds that could be intercepted, given they were complaining before about not having the cash available to fund their operations as is. ZIJIN could stump up I guess, but I can't see them making that easy for us given they are trying to choke us into the ground. I know Cominiere have made selling off tenements into an art form and not depositing the funds into the government coffers, but this doesn't seem to happen all that regularly and seemingly rarely at the lofty figures we may expect if 100k keeps ticking over. I wonder what their operating budget is and whether that's something that could be intercepted- though that would put the government off.

If you have assets and no dry powder, what do banks do to lend you money?

If Cominiere don't pay securitization, the entire case goes in favour of AVZ?

On top of this, lithium produced could be legally ambiguous and many international companies may not consider dealing with them - not 100% conflict minerals of course, but along those lines, it makes their production and distribution very narrow.

I'm sure 20m securitization would be paid for by Zijin in anycase. then try and delay the verdicts.... This saves face, makes the timeline longer etc etc.

15775 has dividend payment to Cominiere in the JV, advance funds etc. If Z doesn;t pay them, could also turn them back to us.

I'd suggest doing your own research and coming to some conclusions. But funding and obtaining damages is pretty standard - also getting the new partners to foot the bill is super common for those snack munchers.

 

[cruiser51]

Hi all, very interesting read8ng peoples comments on what might happen next now we're out of the MMGA chapter.

I'd be interested what everyone's thoughts are on our relationship with CATH. They sided with MMGA right? So now that they've public sided with a Chinese cartel that's against the interests of most shareholders...

Is it still good keeping them involved?
I always thought they were a good complement to the project, but can we still consider them a reliable partner knowing they will willingly conspire with other Chinese parties to screw other shareholders out of their interests? Or is that just the risk of business?

CATH was always getting a great deal. If they'd wanted to sign the dotted line before mining license I'm sure they could have, but they didn't. And a lit has changed since then. $20mil break fee? Well probably end up getting that much in damages. Or another party willing to stump it up as part of a better deal. But I assume TIA has a clause about not engaging with other parties, but given WhatsApp happend and how long the process has dragged out I wonder how valid such a claus would still be.

I don't know who would replace them, but um sure other parties have approached AVZ about creating an alternatieve arrangement (Saudis?).

CATH bring processing knowledge and funding that could help the project grow,
But they also got a stupid cheap deal and have now shown they're wilting to conspire against other holders.
But if they weren't involved the Democratic Republic of Chingo might continue to freak out about a mining operation with no local Chinese involvement.

So where does that leave us?

I would say that Cath (if they voted against AVZ BoD and in favour of the clowns team, AVZ would know this) is well aware that rocking up at the AVZ office for a cuppa and a chew the fat exercise, is for the next few weeks not so smart.

I don't know what Xi told his troops to do, after the MMGA debacle.
Xi understands a big fat middle finger for him, don't you worry, it is a face loosing exercise for Xi.

Fuck Zijin

People stating the DRC/Zijin/Cominiere can't pay.... they can pay the next 10-20 years of production from Manono, tax free to AVZ fukkum.

 

[wombat74]

Taking a step back, we have ongoing cases against them so non-payment on emergency rulings will look poorly on them - so logically they can't just do a runner.

If they do a runner*, because lets face it they probably don't care about ICC cases and its just to drain our funds - I've mentioned before that ICC and ICSID have the power to intercept payments from most international banks and institutions. DLA just need to raise this point to the courts - and wouldn't you know it, if you don't pay according to ICC and ICSID, they don't really favour you going forward.

*This is a possibility for sure.... Refusing to pay is classic DRC, playing the victim, crying poor etc. but there is precedence for intercepting payments which is easy to argue.

For the way payments work, if the damages amount is high, they will draft the payment scheme. If its payment to the Arbitrator and legal teams, its a lump sum immediately, but won't go through AVZ, payable directly to DLA and ICC/ICSID.

We can even ask the courts to force securitization at the next hearings which puts a portion of the payable amount into escrow and will be paid upon a verdict. I'd say with the penalty ticking up to 100mil, we could ask for 20mil as security without much issue - then just work on the verdict and 20mil instant in the bank with the following 80mil that we have to chase up.

Obviously leaving it to DLA and BOD to decide, but that's my takeaway, and why i'm cool as a cucumber.

DYOR.

Thanks again mate .I guess first things first is the MoU .Unfortunately delayed due to the attempted MMGA coup , however already written up and ready to be signed after several meetings with "high level" members of the DRC gov. Once we know the outcome of that I'm guessing we will know what our path is moving forward, and also a sense of closure to the uncertainty SH have endured . IMO