AVZ Discussion 2022

[Carlos Danger]

Any dilution should be offset by the cancellation of 60 million shares previously issued as collateral for the ATM Facility when it expires end of Feb.

So no big deal….should be neutral or negative dilution.

If we can't get the ML in the next $11m then it's not coming. The risk premium here for any potential raise is insane. We will need a shit tonne more than 60m shares to pay for the ICSID if it needs to go the distance.

This suspension has gone from just a few days to clarify our rights to now a potential of years of litigation payed for by dilution

I'm having deja vu of going from just two weeks to flatten the curve so hospitals aren't overrun to anyone that goes outside past 8pm is literally killing grandmas

 

[Retrobyte]

Anyone know if the AGM is to be live streamed, like last year?

They are moving the venue for the AGM to Optus Stadium to cope with the anticipated numbers of attendees - 20,000 shareholders, 5000 director nominees, 10,000 lawyers and 25000 security staff. Will be live streamed on 7 Plus.

 

[wombat74]

If we can't get the ML in the next 11m then it's not coming. The risk premium here for any potential raise is insane. We will need a shit tonne more than 60m shares to pay for the ICSID if it needs to go the distance.

This suspension has gone from just a few days to clarify our rights to now a potential of years of litigation payed for by dilution

I'm having deja vu of going from just two weeks to flatten the curve so hospitals aren't overrun to anyone that goes outside past 8pm is literally killing grandmas

By the next 11m you mean $11million ?

 

[obe wan]

Is that without applying the no vacancy rule?

I think what you are saying is that because we are not being asked to vote on the no vacancy rule the additional two spots on the board up to the max of nine in the AVZ constitution are available as long as one of the rabble or MMGA get a higher % vote than at least one of the endorsed nominees. But MMGA get polled first anyway so they will have either won or lost already before it gets to that point. The rules in the supplementary booklet say candidates will be appointed starting with resolution 2 and ending in resolution 22 until the five vacancies are filled and then the rest are deemed defeated. It says nothing about priority for the five endorsed nominees but how you are describing is how I originally saw it.

If it is decided 2 to 22 with no preference then the only way the no vacancy rule would come into play to help MMGA is if they win their votes and five of the rabble nominees above them also win but with a lower percentage which would still allow them to get the two seats at the end yeah?

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Spoke with someone late last night on this ; she reckoned that if it’s not under the vacancy rule ; then the endorsed taking precedence over non endorsed is actually out the window …. Agreed that the line up was pretty ballsy . So my bad , I fucked up on this one

 

[Carlos Danger]

By the next 11m you mean $11million ?

Yes

 

[Carlos Danger]

Spoke with someone late last night on this ; she reckoned that if it’s not under the vacancy rule ; then the endorsed taking precedence over non endorsed is actually out the window …. Agreed that the line up was pretty ballsy . So my bad , I fucked up on this one

Ok cool thanks for confirming dude

So we need to follow the BoD instructions or risk having 1 or more of their 5 endorsed candidates miss out

 

[Chilla]

If we can't get the ML in the next 11m then it's not coming. The risk premium here for any potential raise is insane. We will need a shit tonne more than 60m shares to pay for the ICSID if it needs to go the distance.

This suspension has gone from just a few days to clarify our rights to now a potential of years of litigation payed for by dilution

I'm having deja vu of going from just two weeks to flatten the curve so hospitals aren't overrun to anyone that goes outside past 8pm is literally killing grandmas

With respect I think you are over dramatising it. They could easily raise $25mil to fund a further year of full blown legals with neutral or negative dilution from the cancellation of 60 million shares. It’s no big deal … Mr Pei likely jump at the chance to get a slice of AVZ and keep in the good books at the same time by showing support.

 

[Carlos Danger]

With respect I think you are over dramatising it. They could easily raise $25mil to fund a further year of full blown legals with neutral or negative dilution from the cancellation of 60 million shares. It’s no big deal … Mr Pei likely jump at the chance to get a slice of AVZ and keep in the good books at the same time by showing support.

Would you give AVZ more money?

A slice of AVZ is rapidly becoming the promise of a future of years of chasing the DRC government for compensation. I wouldn't give Nigel another fucking cent. Anyone that is willing to give us $25m is going to want a decent slice of the pie for that risk.

 

[pow4ade]

Regarding access to the ATM, from memory that facility was granted for Cap/ex spending rather Op/ex. And we need to be trading aa well. Maybe someone can confirm as can't find the ann.

 

[Xerof]

Spoke with someone late last night on this ; she reckoned that if it’s not under the vacancy rule ; then the endorsed taking precedence over non endorsed is actually out the window …. Agreed that the line up was pretty ballsy . So my bad , I fucked up on this one

Cheers Obe

Yes, they apparently took legal advice on how to treat all the nominees. It is clear in the Constitution of AVZ how to do it - straight ballot to reduce to the number of vacancies, but they chose to go this way, and I guess to avoid any possibility of being accused of any bias, they put themselves at the back of the queue. Ballsy indeed, but also should prompt voters to actually fucking vote, as any low turnout will see a clusterfuck (with apologies to our brave nominees - no offence meant to you guys)

 

[Chilla]

Would you give AVZ more money?

A slice of AVZ is rapidly becoming the promise of a future of years of chasing the DRC government for compensation. I wouldn't give Nigel another fucking cent. Anyone that is willing to give us $25m is going to want a decent slice of the pie for that risk.

As I said…..I think you are over dramatising it. We will get clarity soon enough on whether or not there is an MoU pathway forward. That will set the scene for future funding requirements. We have sufficient funds as going concern. It was right of AVZ to highlight strategy of investigating funding options covering different scenarios.

 

[Spikerama]

Spike!

Thhis is awesome!
You could make a careeer out of this but looks like from your twitter handle you already have!

Only thing that i thought may be good is to keep the translated text on the screen a little longer after each translation (for those of us a little slower to read?)

Yeah thanks mate. There is some issues with timing I agree. I will try refine it but obviously you don't want to have too much text on screen at once and his speech pattern is all over the place. Sometimes fast with no gaps and sometimes super slow. So it's a balance of making way for the next sentence without losing pace sometimes.

There's some other thing s I want to fix. The line "what we put in the draft transfer contract" didn't render correctly.

Plus there is no consistency with quotation marks.

I got to late last night and just wanted to get it out first. But I will re-look at it shortly.

 

[Dom1974]

https://x.com/DEBOSS7788/status/1719484888175243748?s=20

 

[Winenut]

We can’t touch the Dathomir money as we adamant we paid in full so money not ours.
If CATH are in any way shape or form in cahoots with other Chinese entities they will demand the $20mil break fee.
So no, we don’t have access to 20-40m at all imo

Spot on

Jens got this so completely wrong it's almost unbelievable

 

[obe wan]

Cheers Obe

Yes, they apparently took legal advice on how to treat all the nominees. It is clear in the Constitution of AVZ how to do it - straight ballot to reduce to the number of vacancies, but they chose to go this way, and I guess to avoid any possibility of being accused of any bias, they put themselves at the back of the queue. Ballsy indeed, but also should prompt voters to actually fucking vote, as any low turnout will see a clusterfuck (with apologies to our brave nominees - no offence meant to you guys)

Well hopefully we’ll only have to go through one of this kind in our lives ; anyway looks like some others have mulled over it too -

#votesmart

 

[Azzler]

I'm truly baffled as to Deboss's reasoning to vote in the Hadleys.
Honestly sounds like he's just making stuff up.
Are they his friends?

 

[BRICK]

Yeah thanks mate. There is some issues with timing I agree. I will try refine it but obviously you don't want to have too much text on screen at once and his speech pattern is all over the place. Sometimes fast with no gaps and sometimes super slow. So it's a balance of making way for the next sentence without losing pace sometimes.

There's some other thing s I want to fix. The line "what we put in the draft transfer contract" didn't render correctly.

Plus there is no consistency with quotation marks.

I got to late last night and just wanted to get it out first. But I will re-look at it shortly.

Seriously do you do this stuff for a living?? It’s high quality stuff!

 

[Winenut]

https://x.com/DEBOSS7788/status/1719484888175243748?s=20

If the MMGA goons (Massive Money Grubbing Arseholes) have enough votes to vote themselves up then by corollary they have enough votes to vote everyone else down

Why Deboss keeps muddying the waters rather than listen to management on how to vote is beyond me

The outcome we want is NO MMGA goons at all and our FIVE board endorsed nominees to get a seat at the table (2 re-elected + the 3 recently appointed and having to nominate)

It's simple and management have clearly advised how they want you to vote

 

[Carlos Danger]

We have sufficient funds as going concern

Believe what you want dude

 

[Misfits]

Not sure if this has been posted, but a cracker of a post!

Amovatio​

109 Posts.
926
Date:01/11/23Time:00:03:39Post #:70654434

Understand all the points you make Scarpa but lets take a quick look at some of the other influences we know are hovering over the DRC and China.

1. The tactic by Zijin to wait until AVZ is drained of all cash is not only naive strategy but intellectually flawed. The decision of the ICC is imminent (this month) and hopefully this will be published prior to our AGM. The ICC is critically aware of the importance of this resource not only to the people of the DRC but the world in general.
Once the ICC decision is announced, it will be interesting to see how the Zijin associate company and Zijin Principal respond. I expect their will be many large Chinese battery makers lining up to gain access to uptake agreements. The full wording of the ICC decision will be extremely interesting and an agreement with the DRC 's IGF findings will give the President a clear mandate to enforce the Mining code against Zijin and its subsidiaries or to cancel any Mining Licences they have in the DRC.
The President is waiting for the ICC ruling before he acts. It is the only reasonable action he can take at this time while the ICC is considering its decision. Why did the President of the DRC meet with the US and he invite high profile US Govt. officials to visit the DRC. Most SHs know how this is going to play out when the ICC ruling is awarded in favour of AVZ. You only have to read into the Announcement published by Zijin that it intends to defend its rights to the 15% they illegally acquired from Cominiere to understand they are forecasting the ICC decision will be against them. We need to stay positive until the announcement is made and believe what we have been informed that our Management team are advancing the MOU in readiness for this decision. I suspect when this happens the MOU will be fast tracked and the DRC President will be making announcements of his own in the lead up to the Elections in December. The fines imposed by the ICC on both Zijin and Cominiere will be significant. How will this be paid or more importantly what arrangements will be put in place to ensure their is no further action taken to appeal the decision of the ICC so the DRC and AVZ can push ahead to go Mining.
I suspect the AVZ Management team are hanging onto information about the increased value of Manono following the completion of the extended drilling program that was undertaken and the impact the Assay results will have on a revised DFS. IMO the value of our company will be closer to $10B and not $3B where it currently sits. The Chinese wouldn't be fighting this hard for a resource if it was only $3B.
AVZ management team pushed ahead to complete the Administration and workers huts while we have been in suspension. This was not done for no reason but to fast track the company in readiness to commence Mining operations when the ML or MOU is issued and the fight over ownership has been clearly resolved in the eyes of the DRC Govt.

2. You have articulated the world domination that the Chinese have over the entire EV Battery Supply chain. Don't you think the US are aware of the stranglehold Chinese companies have over resources and processing facilities and the dependence this puts over the world being compelled to deal with the Chinese . Do you think the West is going to concede and allow this domination to continue? The World lithium market outside of China is in recession thanks to the Chinese controlling prices and supply and demand. Many countries around the world are starting to develop their own processing and refining facilities. China's domination is going to go into freefall and the supply of raw lithium resources to them will dry up. The West and many European countries are going to refuse to deal with them. Take a look at what is happening in the Rare Earths sector and you will start to see how the West and Europe is going to isolate China and diminish their domination.
This will be high on the Agenda in the upcoming meetings between Aus PM and China and US President and China. If China wants to maintain their stranglehold on Rare Earths and Lithium processing then the West will cease to deal with them for other critical resources which has seen their economy grow and prosper over the last 20 years.

3. Having only 1.6 qtrs of funding available hasn't been uncommon to AVZ in the history since I have been involved as a shareholder. IMO the AVZ team are close to resolving our ownership entitlements. What matters is that we endorse them to lead the project as they have recommended.
MMGA MUST BE DEFEATED and clearly so to show the DRC Govt. that shareholders have voted in solidarity with the current Board. The corrupt will be dealt with in good time once the new GOVT. is elected.
AVZ is far off from being defeated. We have a lot worth fighting for. Only the weak will give up and allow the Chinese to run rampant over this investment. I look forward to enjoying a VB with you somewhere when all this is behind us. Cheers

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AVZ (ASX)
Price at posting: 78.0¢
Sentiment: Hold
Disclosure: Held