I'm of the same opinion.I think it is just because the toothless tiger doesn't yet have a backbone. The longer this drags out, the more damage he does to his own country via the ICSID fines and further reputational damage which will discourage western investment. His smartest move forward is to bring all parties together for some form of a negotiated settlement whereby everyone has to "give a little" so that all parties are appeased as Carlos has been saying for a long while.
If he doesn't grow a backbone after this new government is formed, it will probably be the worst decision for him. If we go the full length and AVZ end up with what we are entitled, what's to stop Zijin from then taking the DRC Gov to court for giving them (albeit illegally as per mining code) a percentage ownership and then taking it off of them? The best path forward for everyone is still a negotiated settlement.
For me April is key, hopefully we have funding sorted out and then the new government formed.
If no progress after that then I wouldn't be expecting anything to happen outside of running the court process. Which also to me means Felix doesn't give AF.
To be honest, I already think he doesn't give AF but he seems to have excuse after excuse made for him. First it was elections coming up, then it was waiting for some court cases so he could look like he has no choice to save face to the chinese, then it was waiting for a new government to form.
I think after April there aren't any excuses for him anymore.