Like nimble gazelles, ASX juniors are waltzing into Africa’s virgin territory for critical minerals
Is everyone forgetting how cheap it is to mine critical minerals in Africa? Maybe? Or maybe not.
A quick scrape of the ASX will tell you there are quite a few early movers into the world’s Garden of Eden, proving up mineral wealth in vastly underexplored jurisdictions with little to no previous mining nous for rare, in-demand commodities.
Like nimble gazelles, intrepid ASX-listed mining juniors are leaping into near-virgin mining territory and attracting a helluva lot of attention from a bunch of OEMs, Sovereign Wealth Funds and governments both foreign and domestic. 
The big cats are also jumping on board to help explorers cut red tape, provide funding and accelerate the development of minerals projects necessary for our jump into cleaner energy sources.
US-Saudi partnership to spend big in Africa
None are more publicly stating their plans to foray into Africa than the Saudis and US – announcing a partnership late last year to invest US$15 billion into the continent to secure critical minerals supply.
Saudi investment minister Khalid Al-Falih has publicly announced the nation would use its sovereign wealth fund to make “game-changing investments” into Africa.
Commenting on behalf of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Gracelin Baskaran says the partnership – for African countries in particular – is lucrative, as the land of the two holy mosques plan to be producing 500,000 EVs annually by 2030.
“Saudi Arabia has shown they are willing to deploy the capital at a time when many private sector players are scaling back on investment,” Baskaran said.
“It has also shown that is willing to provide African countries with the support to ensure they get more from their resources.
“By partnering, Saudi offers the US and its allies the most powerful counter to China’s dominance in critical minerals.
“The US has had very limited commercial engagement with the African continent, which has over 75% of the world’s manganese, platinum and chromium, nearly half the world’s cobalt, and a fifth of the world’s graphite.
“On the other hand, Saudi Arabia has become increasingly close to Africa.”
The Carnegie Institute says the African Union is well aware of its mineral endowment and countries such as Ghana, DRC, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Mali, Mozambique, Malawi and Zimbabwe, among others, all have such country-level strategies to leverage their deposits.
Africa is primed for a critical minerals surge
Speaking with
Stockhead, Matthew Johnson, partner at global resources specialist law firm Allen & Overy, says the opportunities for mining projects are greatly increasing on the continent.
“What we’re seeing is that companies will [carte blanche] go wherever the opportunities are,” Johnson says.
“Our sense of this is that they are willing to take on board perceived geopolitical risks over the potential time delays to get projects off the ground in other jurisdictions such as WA and Canada.
“Part of the attraction of places like Africa – and we’re even seeing it in South America – is the speed of being able to get projects permitted from start to finish much quicker.
“From what we see, they’re still undertaking all of the right environmental impact assessments in much the same way, but there’s also that willingness across the board to process these things quicker than it might be in other, more robust jurisdictions.”
Johnson also says that while new tech looks promising, they may take years – if not decades – to become mainstream, so it’s critical for companies and governments alike to meet their current, long lead project timelines and clean energy targets using commercially proven end products.
“We’re increasingly seeing OEMs coming in from electronics and automotive companies that are willing to get involved in trickier to operate jurisdictions due to the scarcity of supply and tight timetables for getting products to market,” he says.
“Government EV targets are definitely driving pressure for OEMs to secure supply chains and we don’t see that letting up any time soon.”
The ASX gazelles leaping to the occasion
Leo Lithium, meanwhile, has come out of the fog from the stalled development of its Goulamina lithium project in Mali where its backer, Chinese battery maker Ganfeng, has floated its progress – another example of an OEM willing to get projects into production at all costs.
Nearby is
First Lithium’s Blakala lithium prospect; which, according to CSA Global, is one of the only other Tier 1 critical minerals projects in the country.
FL1 is hard at it unlocking Blakala’s potential, with the latest hits from diamond drilling
showing a whopping 111m @1.57% Li2O from 33m and up to 1.94% from wide spodumene targets west of the main target area.
Backed by
Piedmont Lithium (which will take a 50% stake in the project)
Atlantic Lithium aims to become Ghana’s first lithium producer as it advances its 35.3Mt @ 1.25% 350,000tpa Li2O Ewoyaa project.
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Canada’s ambitious EV targets can’t be met without more support for mine supply
The Canadian government continues to forge ahead with new regulations for curbing and eventually ending sales of gas-powered vehicles.
Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard published in mid-December calls for 100% zero-emissions vehicles by 2035.
Under the new Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, auto manufacturers and importers must meet annual ZEV regulated sales targets.
The targets begin for the 2026 model year, with a requirement that at least 20% of new light-duty vehicles offered for sale in that year be ZEVs.
The requirements increase annually to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
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This is only one part of the government’s ambitious
2030 Emissions Reduction Plan put in place in 2022.
The plan targets emissions reductions of 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.
These ambitious goals are similar to other countries.
The United States aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030.
The European Union targets reducing emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030.
Even China has set the goal to increase renewable energy as the primary source of energy consumption from current levels of around 15% to 25% by 2030 — and pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
These goals are admirable, but the reality is that meeting them will require more critical minerals than are currently in the production pipeline.
To meet international EV adoption targets, the world will need 50 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines and 17 new cobalt mines by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Cathode materials, anode materials and battery cells will also require additional raw material, adding up to about 388 new mines, it says.
This gap in production for energy transition metals provides an opportunity for Canada.
As of 2021, there were only 70 metal mines in Canada, this compares to 270 metal mines operating across the US Investments in clean energy need to grow from $1.3 trillion today, to over $4 trillion by 2030 to meet governments’ goals, according to the IEA.
Spurring new development
To help support their decarbonization plans, governments around the world have introduced more than 100 new initiatives over the last few years, ranging from trade and investment policies to restrictions on imports, exports and international ownership of resources.
Some initiatives aim to help spur investment into natural resources domestically (and with countries deemed ‘friendly.’
Some policies giving the state more control over and revenue from resources have been quickly rolled out, shifting the playing field for investors.
Recent examples include Mexico nationalizing its lithium industry in 2022, and Chile raising copper mining royalties while increasing the role of state-owned miner Codelco.
Other countries are also reviewing their mining policies and encouraging investment in the industry through tax and other incentives.
The changing geopolitical environment has further complicated government goals.
The supply chain issues during Covid-19, and the shift towards domestic production and ‘friend-shoring’ have seen governments favour domestic supplies of critical minerals and securing minerals from allied countries.
All while many years of under-investment in mining infrastructure and processing facilities in Western nations presents big hurdles to self-sufficiency.
Production woes
Geopolitics, namely tensions between the US and China and the West and Russia, have introduced new supply risks as global trade splinters. But even friendly nations could present supply risks caused by changing political landscapes, social unrest, or civil wars.
For example, unrest in Mexico, Peru and Chile has led to strikes and temporary mine closures.
While geopolitical risks are top of mind, the main supply constraint for critical minerals remains the need for increased mine production along with new infrastructure to refine the minerals, a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) found last year
(Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Metals).
To compound the problem, the recent decline in battery metal prices is further delaying mining projects due to lack of capital. Lithium prices have plummeted more than 80%, while other battery metal inputs, such as cobalt, nickel, and graphite are down more than 30%.
If prices don’t recover, it will deepen shortages of materials in the coming years, putting the brakes on governments’ ambitious agendas to decarbonize their economies.
Analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence (June 2023) reports that the global average lead times for mine development from discovery to production is 15.7 years, and in Canada this timeline is about nearly 26 months longer.
Investor interest in mining is currently very low partly because of the long-time horizon and the uncertainty that exploration stage projects will be economically viable.
mining.com
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Food for thought on the Road to Mining Manono
Cheers
Frank
