cosors
👀
| ||||||
| ||||||
Talga Group is pleased to invite you to register for the February 2024 Investor Webinar.
Date: Thursday 1 February
Time: 4:00pm AWST / 7:00pm AEDT
What: Talga’s Managing Director Mark Thompson will provide an update on the Company’s Vittangi Anode Project and its recent corporate activities, followed by a Question and Answer (Q&A) session.
Questions can be lodged online during the webinar or submitted ahead of time via email at info@talgagroup.com.
I'm still trying to understand what has caused the graphite oversupply. I realize that existing graphite producers have expanded production and also that the Chinese economy is soft, but I don't see anything so far that would diverge greatly from what we would've expected a year or two ago. The fact that existing producers were planning on expanding production was known and while the Chinese economy has softened, it's not like EV sales have fallen off of a cliff, so I don't quite get why projections of graphite prices were so off. I guess it's just that graphite supply has grown slightly faster than expected, but EV demand has grown slower than expected?
I'm not so worried about the courts. They've taken much longer than they should, but I think we'll be past that soon enough and future expansions will likely be covered by legislation that forces the permitting process to complete within two years. I'm more concerned about when/if graphite prices will recover. I don't have a way of know the answer to that because I don't fully understand the factors that have led us to the current pricing situation, so can't begin to predict future pricing.
Ditto…This is brutal. 50% down in 2 months and increasingly pessimistic about this as every day goes by. What a disaster.
Going to be a very long road to recover even to $1 from this destruction.
At what point does an opportunistic auto company or battery manufacturer try and take this out? Would they even bother with the permit uncertainty?
Time to find out how good Tal-Si really is?
Have to admit that I broke my usual disciplined controls and over-invested in this one. Hope everyone else is doing ok.
Don't worry you are not alone. This will turn. Lithium and Nickel are getting smashed at the moment and graphite (or should I really say anode producers) are collateral damage.I think the short answer is the speed and size of the (Chinese) supply response of synthetic graphite has been bigger than analysts expected in the last 12-18 months. And as yet no one is willing to pay the green premium, so price is king.
EV demand for 2023 has actually been hitting expectations, even exceeding in some cases (eg both Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs had 14-15% EV penetration in 2023 as a bullish case - actual numbers tracking at about 16%).
Although anecdotally I have been seeing a shift in the general narrative/sentiment around electric vehicles changing more to the negative in the last 6 months as it gets dragged into an issue for the culture wars.
Agree about not worrying about the courts per se - the permit will get approved. The issue is how delays have affected funding and subsequent additional dilution as a result. I used to base by conservative Talga valuation case on around 500m shares on issue - have to be realistic and anticipate anything up to double that now, maybe more.
Don't worry you are not alone. This will turn. Lithium and Nickel are getting smashed at the moment and graphite (or should I really say anode producers) are collateral damage.
The Chinese have allegedly found a massive new lithium resource in one of their provinces plus Indonesia is digging up nickel at a much more cost effective rate than BHP Billiton.
Baby and Bathwater come to mind
That's a fair enough question but there is a helluva lot more processing for Syrah's ore than Talga's. Remember we have an Anode mine Syrah has a Graphite mine-how long the ramp-up phase for Vittangi anode production is from the end of the commissioning period to full nameplate capacity run-rate. The DFS seems to suggest this will hit full run-rate immediately upon completion of the plant, whereas Syrah are currently saying 18 months from completion to reach full run-rate of just 11kpta at Vidalia. Why?
Yes definitely. In fact if you look at Lithium and Nickel producers and their production scale backs in Australia fund managers would rightly be thinking there is no way TLG will get any Debt funding at all so it must be from EquityI think one of the reasons the share price is so low is because fund managers anticipate that funding for the mine is done issuing new shares
Talga Group is pleased to invite you to register for the February 2024 Investor Webinar.
Date: Thursday 1 February
Time: 4:00pm AWST / 7:00pm AEDT
What: Talga’s Managing Director Mark Thompson will provide an update on the Company’s Vittangi Anode Project and its recent corporate activities, followed by a Question and Answer (Q&A) session.
Questions can be lodged online during the webinar or submitted ahead of time via email at info@talgagroup.com.
Linear as I understand it, however the swelling would be prohibitive at higher concentrations. MT spoke to this a while back. You could dose at 50% tal-Si, but it’s not the design intent - your cycle life would be prohibitively short. So it’s sweet spot is probably around the 5-20% mark, where significant gain in capacity is worth the marginal degradation of cycle life.We know 9% Talnode Si improves capacity by 40%, so how much does 50% increase capacity? Is it linear or asymptotic?
... and what is the cost differential?
I guess the Si expansion prevents the use of much greater Si%.
View attachment 55744
Thanks MMD,Bullish. As. Fuck
Linear as I understand it, however the swelling would be prohibitive at higher concentrations. MT spoke to this a while back. You could dose at 50% tal-Si, but it’s not the design intent - your cycle life would be prohibitively short. So it’s sweet spot is probably around the 5-20% mark, where significant gain in capacity is worth the marginal degradation of cycle life.
Yes - a device with a short lifespan or where you want whopping capacity for a one-off (or few) uses, that would be your use case for a very high silicon load. Kamikaze drone springs to mind.Thanks MMD,
So if you had an application which required only infrequent recharging or disposable* battery (eg, smoke detector ...), a high Si load could be useful?
* Of course, when I say "disposable", I mean "recyclable".
DefibrillatorsYes - a device with a short lifespan or where you want whopping capacity for a one-off (or few) uses, that would be your use case for a very high silicon load.