TLG Discussion 2022

BlackBeak

Regular
Yes - a device with a short lifespan or where you want whopping capacity for a one-off (or few) uses, that would be your use case for a very high silicon load. Kamikaze drone springs to mind.

I think a big use case for tal-Si will in fact be at the opposite end of the scale though, to make LFP and other cheaper battery chemistries comparable to NCM etc in terms of performance.
Wow, I can’t say Kamikaze drones was the first business case I thought of for Talnode-Si and the worlds greenest anode 😅
 
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Monkeymandan

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Wow, I can’t say Kamikaze drones was the first business case I thought of for Talnode-Si and the worlds greenest anode 😅
Yeah not sure why my brain went there first to be honest. Let’s go with defibrillators and lunar landers…better PR!
 
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cosors

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Or E-vapours to throw away? So far Li batteries from China, with LED light. I have calculated that battery capacities sufficient for at least 70,000 Tesla Model 3s are thrown away here in Germany alone.
Screenshot_2024-02-02-12-38-56-74_92460851df6f172a4592fca41cc2d2e6.jpg

They are thrown into flower beds or bushes here because they are electronic waste and not for the rubbish. Our eco party in the government has no problem with that. Another party from the opposition has tabled a proposal in Brussels.
Screenshot_2024-02-02-20-55-43-77_7d6541707e0ad471ad1a839839bd7d1b.jpg



____
That was meant sarcastically. I don't understand these people who buy this junk from China in bulk and throw it away carelessly. It's total hype here, like a counter-movement or statement against the green transition. It scares me and also how little politicians are doing against it.
 
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cosors

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JNRB

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manny100

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Don't worry I fixed it for them
Adventure Of A Lifetime GIF by Coldplay
Angry Chimp GIF by BBC America



What I Added to Wiki.....................

Miljödomstolen har dock funnit att gruvdrift och naturmiljö kan existera samtidigt i detta fall och möjligheten att överklaga beslutet avslogs i enlighet därmed. För närvarande överväger Högsta domstolen om prövningstillstånd ska beviljas med ett nära förestående beslut.Ett beslut till förmån för gruvan ses som ett stort steg framåt i Europas övergång till en ren/grön energiframtid som möjliggör produktion av de grönaste batterierna på planeten

English Translation..........................

However the Environmental Court has found that mining and the natural environment can co exist in this case and the avenue to appeal the decision was accordingly denied. Currently the Supreme Court is considering whether to grant leave to appeal with a decision imminent.A decision in favour of the mine is seen as a giant step forward in the transition of Europe to a clean/green energy future enabling the production of the greenest batteries on the planet
The problem for Sweden and the EU is if projects cannot go ahead then their will be no self reliance.
We have seen the need for self reliance increase dramatically since the Russian/Ukraine war began.
Just imagine if China decides to move in on Taiwan. If everyone relies on supply from China it will be difficult to apply sanctions. It becomes a case of do we turn a blind eye while other dominoes fall as well?
So permitting is necessary and will happen.
We also have iron ore, cobalt copper and with luck Lithium.
 
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JNRB

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The problem for Sweden and the EU is if projects cannot go ahead then their will be no self reliance.
We have seen the need for self reliance increase dramatically since the Russian/Ukraine war began.
Just imagine if China decides to move in on Taiwan. If everyone relies on supply from China it will be difficult to apply sanctions. It becomes a case of do we turn a blind eye while other dominoes fall as well?
So permitting is necessary and will happen.
We also have iron ore, cobalt copper and with luck Lithium.
It's not even about self-reliance for the materials any more either.
As MT mentioned in the last webinar - China will crush Europe's existing car industries if given the chance. Not just use material reliance as a geopolitical stranglehold, but smother the industry completely and take over.
 
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Semmel

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It's not even about self-reliance for the materials any more either.
As MT mentioned in the last webinar - China will crush Europe's existing car industries if given the chance. Not just use material reliance as a geopolitical stranglehold, but smother the industry completely and take over.

And we even have a precedent to that. Look what happened to the US car industry when the Japanese moved in 40 years ago. The industry shrunk more than 50% as a consequence. If this were happening to Europe, all OEMs would need state aid rescue.
 
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Semmel

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NVX announced a binding offtake with panasonic of 10kt over 4 years starting 2025. The price was not stated in the announcement, but guessing its around their 10 $/kg, this means they have on average 2500t/a*10000$/t = $25M revenue for 4 years. If you assume a profit margin of 30% (i dont know their production cost, but lets say its around $7/kg) and a p/e multiple of 10, we end up with a company value of about $25M * 0.3 * 10 = $50M. Or about 0.15USD = 0.23AUD per share. Of course assumptions and reality might differ, but this is somewhat my expectation from that. I dont hold NVX, I just found it a nice case study on how the market reacts to the news.
 
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brewm0re

Regular
NVX announced a binding offtake with panasonic of 10kt over 4 years starting 2025. The price was not stated in the announcement, but guessing its around their 10 $/kg, this means they have on average 2500t/a*10000$/t = $25M revenue for 4 years. If you assume a profit margin of 30% (i dont know their production cost, but lets say its around $7/kg) and a p/e multiple of 10, we end up with a company value of about $25M * 0.3 * 10 = $50M. Or about 0.15USD = 0.23AUD per share. Of course assumptions and reality might differ, but this is somewhat my expectation from that. I dont hold NVX, I just found it a nice case study on how the market reacts to the news.
Hi Semmel, an article from “The Australian”which is a major publisher here, re: NVX. As much as $15,300/tonne it states, (ie up to $153m for 10,000 tonnes)…. but where they get this figure from, who knows? And is that in AUD or USD terms: huge difference. I suspect in AUD given it’s an Australian article and right now the exchange rate is $1.53 to $1 (which very neatly matches the $153m figure the article has published).…No sales revenue, or pricing, was listed in that ANN, as you’ve pointed out…. Just yesterday NVX did a webinar, so perhaps it was raised then, but you’d think they are definitely obliged to publish as per ASX rulings. Anyways, synthetic graphite price (on par with TalC based on LCA) would be well embraced, especially given all this shenanigans over last 12 months for graphite/anode pricing.
 
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brewm0re

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Hi Semmel, an article from “The Australian”which is a major publisher here, re: NVX. As much as $15,300/tonne it states, (ie up to $153m for 10,000 tonnes)…. but where they get this figure from, who knows? And is that in AUD or USD terms: huge difference. I suspect in AUD given it’s an Australian article and right now the exchange rate is $1.53 to $1 (which very neatly matches the $153m figure the article has published).…No sales revenue, or pricing, was listed in that ANN, as you’ve pointed out…. Just yesterday NVX did a webinar, so perhaps it was raised then, but you’d think they are definitely obliged to publish as per ASX rulings. Anyways, synthetic graphite price (on par with TalC based on LCA) would be well embraced, especially given all this shenanigans over last 12 months for graphite/anode pricing.
 
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ACinEur

Regular
It's not even about self-reliance for the materials any more either.
As MT mentioned in the last webinar - China will crush Europe's existing car industries if given the chance. Not just use material reliance as a geopolitical stranglehold, but smother the industry completely and take over.
I’ve just spent a week skiing with a German friend who runs a company supplying components to one of the big 3 🇩🇪 automakers (which his Grandfather founded) and his prognosis was that he would be lucky to survive 5 more years as they are being crushed by Chinese 🇨🇳 firms under cutting, the complexity of component making for Electric cars and continuing policy changes by the Government…. He was constantly on the phone and working all night…so unlike our previous trips…a very sad state of affairs.
Also have just returned to Aus after a couple of months away my impression in Austria and Germany was of countries ‘in recession’ especially in the smaller towns…As always plenty of $ at the top end, but not so good for small businesses.
If the EU are going to be serious on Climate (and Defence) they need to act quickly and decisively…
Anyway just some thoughts
AC
 
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I’ve just spent a week skiing with a German friend who runs a company supplying components to one of the big 3 🇩🇪 automakers (which his Grandfather founded) and his prognosis was that he would be lucky to survive 5 more years as they are being crushed by Chinese 🇨🇳 firms under cutting, the complexity of component making for Electric cars and continuing policy changes by the Government…. He was constantly on the phone and working all night…so unlike our previous trips…a very sad state of affairs.
Also have just returned to Aus after a couple of months away my impression in Austria and Germany was of countries ‘in recession’ especially in the smaller towns…As always plenty of $ at the top end, but not so good for small businesses.
If the EU are going to be serious on Climate (and Defence) they need to act quickly and decisively…
Anyway just some thoughts
AC

I've been thinking about this.

Seems the EU have 2 broad categories of potential interventions to try and stop EU auto companies being crushed by the Chinese EV makers

1) Significant support for the electrification project through subsidies, tax relief, legislation etc to allow EU auto companies to compete with China on their EV offerings
2) Water down targets for phase out of ICE either by extending dates or removing entirely. This would allow the EU auto makers to keep doing what they do best - making great quality ICEs.

Unfortunately no. 2 seems to be where the median voter is sitting on this at the moment.
And the EU seems to be on no. 3 - do nothing quicky. Lets hope no.1 starts to happen before it's too late
 
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That is Pay walled but being the good little right winger like I am :) I have a subscription to the "Evil Murdoch Empire" and it's publications

Novonix seals $153m EV battery deal with Panasonic in US​

Novonix has sealed its biggest ever deal in the burgeoning $65bn North American electric vehicle market that will see it supply tonnes of battery material to Japanese electronics giant Panasonic.
Glen Norris Glen Norris
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2 min read
February 9, 2024 - 1:52PM
The Australian Business Network
Global demand for electric vehicles and battery materials continues to grow

Global demand for electric vehicles and battery materials continues to grow

QLD Business

Don't miss out on the headlines from QLD Business. Followed categories will be added to My News.
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Novonix has sealed its biggest ever deal in the burgeoning $65bn North American electric vehicle market that will see it supply tonnes of battery material to Japanese electronics giant Panasonic Energy.

Under the three-year deal that could be worth as much as $153m, 10,0000 tonnes of high-performance synthetic graphite anode material will be shipped to Panasonic Energy’s North American EV battery operations from Novonix’s Riverside facility in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Panasonic Energy is working to expand its production of EV batteries in North America to meet increased demand while also increasing the percentage of materials procured locally. The Biden administration is moving to wean the US electric vehicle battery chain away from China as it strengthens local supply chain in key sectors.

Shares in Novonix, whose board includes former Dow Chemical boss Andrew Liveris, surged more than 10 per cent in afternoon trade on the ASX to 68 cents.

Novonix chief executive Chris Burns said the binding agreement with Panasonic Energy cemented the Brisbane company’s position in the rapidly expanding North American market. “Off-take agreements with high-quality partners such as Panasonic Energy solidify our position as a leader in onshoring the supply chain of synthetic graphite and accelerating the adoption of clean energy in the industry,” said Dr Burns. “We look forward to expanding our longstanding relationship with Panasonic Energy.”
Novonix chief executive Dr Chris Burns. Jane Dempster/The Australian

Novonix chief executive Dr Chris Burns. Jane Dempster/The Australian
Electric vehicle sales were forecast to hit a record 9 per cent of all passenger vehicles in the US last year, according to Atlas Public Policy. It was the first time more than 1 million EVs were sold in the United States in one calendar year, probably reaching between 1.3 million and 1.4 million cars. Panasonic Energy president Shoichiro Watanabe said the company would need to build four more factories to reach its target for a sharp boost in annual capacity of batteries for electric vehicles by 2031. Japanese companies are looking to boost their investment in the United States EV market, after a deal the two countries struck last March to widen access for Japanese manufacturers to tax credits.

Panasonic is moving to establish a sustainable supply and reduce the carbon footprint of its entire lithium-ion battery supply chain for EVs by 50 per cent in 2031 compared to 2022.

Dr Burns said Panasonic’s reputation, their quality standards, and growth plans represented a huge opportunity for Novonix. “Panasonic Energy is building a new facility in Kansas, very close to Chattanooga,” said Mr Burns. “They also operate the gigafactory in tandem with Tesla in Reno, Nevada and all of this is focused on local consumption and local production of the materials. Panasonic has a long term vision, both in localisation and decreasing the carbon footprint in their supply chain.”

Novonix, which counts Queensland billionaire Trevor St Baker as one of its major investors, last year sealed a $44.9m deal with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution allowing the firms to research and develop battery materials for electric vehicles and storage systems.

Dr Burns said he was not concerned that the possible election of Donald Trump as president would wind back incentives, including tax credits, for electric vehicles. “The political landscape has an important role to play in the growth of our sector but I think it is important to understand there’s a lot of alignment in the goals between different administrations.” he said. ”The government programs are great, but it’s a short term solution and there are different tactics to achieve the same outcome. Consumer sentiment is going to drive vehicle adoption. The technology in the market, the ability to bring a more diverse fleet of consumer vehicles to the market at lower cost points, is really what people need to see.”
A Tesla Model Y charges at a EV charge station in Lane Cove,

A Tesla Model Y charges at a EV charge station in Lane Cove,
 
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DAH

Regular
That is Pay walled but being the good little right winger like I am :) I have a subscription to the "Evil Murdoch Empire" and it's publications

Novonix seals $153m EV battery deal with Panasonic in US​

Novonix has sealed its biggest ever deal in the burgeoning $65bn North American electric vehicle market that will see it supply tonnes of battery material to Japanese electronics giant Panasonic.
Glen Norris Glen Norris
Follow

2 min read
February 9, 2024 - 1:52PM
The Australian Business Network
Global demand for electric vehicles and battery materials continues to grow

Global demand for electric vehicles and battery materials continues to grow

QLD Business

Don't miss out on the headlines from QLD Business. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Follow

Novonix has sealed its biggest ever deal in the burgeoning $65bn North American electric vehicle market that will see it supply tonnes of battery material to Japanese electronics giant Panasonic Energy.

Under the three-year deal that could be worth as much as $153m, 10,0000 tonnes of high-performance synthetic graphite anode material will be shipped to Panasonic Energy’s North American EV battery operations from Novonix’s Riverside facility in Chattanooga, Tennessee. Panasonic Energy is working to expand its production of EV batteries in North America to meet increased demand while also increasing the percentage of materials procured locally. The Biden administration is moving to wean the US electric vehicle battery chain away from China as it strengthens local supply chain in key sectors.

Shares in Novonix, whose board includes former Dow Chemical boss Andrew Liveris, surged more than 10 per cent in afternoon trade on the ASX to 68 cents.

Novonix chief executive Chris Burns said the binding agreement with Panasonic Energy cemented the Brisbane company’s position in the rapidly expanding North American market. “Off-take agreements with high-quality partners such as Panasonic Energy solidify our position as a leader in onshoring the supply chain of synthetic graphite and accelerating the adoption of clean energy in the industry,” said Dr Burns. “We look forward to expanding our longstanding relationship with Panasonic Energy.”
Novonix chief executive Dr Chris Burns. Jane Dempster/The Australian

Novonix chief executive Dr Chris Burns. Jane Dempster/The Australian
Electric vehicle sales were forecast to hit a record 9 per cent of all passenger vehicles in the US last year, according to Atlas Public Policy. It was the first time more than 1 million EVs were sold in the United States in one calendar year, probably reaching between 1.3 million and 1.4 million cars. Panasonic Energy president Shoichiro Watanabe said the company would need to build four more factories to reach its target for a sharp boost in annual capacity of batteries for electric vehicles by 2031. Japanese companies are looking to boost their investment in the United States EV market, after a deal the two countries struck last March to widen access for Japanese manufacturers to tax credits.

Panasonic is moving to establish a sustainable supply and reduce the carbon footprint of its entire lithium-ion battery supply chain for EVs by 50 per cent in 2031 compared to 2022.

Dr Burns said Panasonic’s reputation, their quality standards, and growth plans represented a huge opportunity for Novonix. “Panasonic Energy is building a new facility in Kansas, very close to Chattanooga,” said Mr Burns. “They also operate the gigafactory in tandem with Tesla in Reno, Nevada and all of this is focused on local consumption and local production of the materials. Panasonic has a long term vision, both in localisation and decreasing the carbon footprint in their supply chain.”

Novonix, which counts Queensland billionaire Trevor St Baker as one of its major investors, last year sealed a $44.9m deal with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution allowing the firms to research and develop battery materials for electric vehicles and storage systems.

Dr Burns said he was not concerned that the possible election of Donald Trump as president would wind back incentives, including tax credits, for electric vehicles. “The political landscape has an important role to play in the growth of our sector but I think it is important to understand there’s a lot of alignment in the goals between different administrations.” he said. ”The government programs are great, but it’s a short term solution and there are different tactics to achieve the same outcome. Consumer sentiment is going to drive vehicle adoption. The technology in the market, the ability to bring a more diverse fleet of consumer vehicles to the market at lower cost points, is really what people need to see.”
A Tesla Model Y charges at a EV charge station in Lane Cove,

A Tesla Model Y charges at a EV charge station in Lane Cove,
Cheers WTM!

"Panasonic is moving to establish a sustainable supply and reduce the carbon footprint of its entire lithium-ion battery supply chain for EVs by 50 per cent in 2031 compared to 2022."

NVX might need to watch their back here once an EU / US alliance is formalised. Green anodes might soon be a US reality
 
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Semmel

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Interesting statements from user Richo48 on HC on SYR forum:

https://hotcrapper.com.au/threads/media-reports.6779383/page-3359?post_id=72483516

RUI Explorers Conference in Perth


I attended this conference in Perth last week. Among the presenters were the CEOs of three Perth based graphite companies, Andrew Worland of International Graphite, Sean Gregory of Sarytogan Graphite and Mark Thompson of Talga Group.

I managed to catch up with the three presenters and quizzed them among other things on three subjects : China Export Licensing, synthetic graphite, and their views on Syrah.


China Export Licensing

Mark Thompson a few months ago stated that he thought the export licensing was “just a shot across the bows”. He said after discussions with BTR, Shanshan and other companies he now concedes the situation is more serious. BTR reported being able to get licenses, Shanshan was having problems, some didn’t want to comment. Posco in Korea doesn’t seem to have had their supply impeded.

Sean Gregory’s take was that the ultimate aim is to make it difficult for Europe and the USA to produce EVs at all with the view that China will dominate the EV market. Coincidentally in the Wall Street Journal on the weekend there was similar sentiment :

https://hotcrapper.com.au/attachments/image-jpeg.5975108/?temp_hash=e4a43a525ef590a12e585ec0d3e6839a

International Graphite is actually currently sourcing graphite (in small quantities) from China to feed their pilot spheroidising plant in Collie prior to their Springdale mine coming onstream so it will be interesting to see how they fare in the future.


Synthetic Graphite

Sean Gregory has the optimistic view that overall the percentage of synthetic in Chinese anodes is going to decrease from 85% to around 40% driven by cost, ESG concerns and customer preferences.

Talga is planning to produce anodes in Sweden and from his perspective synthetic will not play a big part due to European customer preferences. Interestingly Mark Thompson said that the synthetic he will use he is sourcing from Italy, from a company currently producing it for the industrial segment of the market.

And in a second post:
https://hotcrapper.com.au/threads/media-reports.6779383/page-3359?post_id=72483516

Regarding your comments On TLG above, I actually discussed this with Mark Thompson at the RUI Explorers Conference in Perth last week.


Apparently this system of appeals is quite standard for all new mines in Sweden and has been covered extensively on the TLG thread on this site. TLG are at the final stage of the process which has been largely instigated by the Reindeer Herders Federation.


Mark Thompson said they actually have a good relationship with the herders and he plans to operate the mine ( not including the processing plant) only six months of the year so as not to impede the annual reindeer migration.

He has been told that the Federation automatically appeals all mining applications whether they actually oppose them or not to bolster the Sami’s standing internationally as an oppressed minority community.


Mark tells a good story but is quite believable in what he says.
 
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Diogenese

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Interestingly, the Australian company, Hazer (HZR), produces hydrogen from methane using iron ore as a catalyst. The byproduct is graphite.

Their early trials produced 95% purity, so not battery grade. I suppose some of the contaminants derive from the iron ore, so probably not a problem in steel making.

I don't know if it can be further refined.
 

Semmel

Top 20
Interestingly, the Australian company, Hazer (HZR), produces hydrogen from methane using iron ore as a catalyst. The byproduct is graphite.

Their early trials produced 95% purity, so not battery grade. I suppose some of the contaminants derive from the iron ore, so probably not a problem in steel making.

I don't know if it can be further refined.

Yeah I heard of that. It could be a nice source for graphite but who knows the flake size and other properties? I have not yet seen anything regarding battery applications. You might end up with synthetic graphite that has the impurities and shape issues of bad natural graphite which is the worst of both worlds. As a byproduct it might be cheaper to create but is it also cheaper to use? I have no idea.
 
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anbuck

Regular
On the surface, China restricting graphite exports sounds good for Talga, but I'm hoping that we aren't heading for a scenario where companies outside of China can't get enough graphite to manufacture their own batteries and therefore Talga's supply becomes less valuable because it's not sufficient, at least in the initial phase, to supply multiple factories on its own and without supplemental supply from China, the factories can't operate.
 
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cosors

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Thanks for sharing and thanks to the original poster!
I think I had read about Italy somewhere far earlier. Shouldn't be hard to find out who that is. It will be a company similar to SGL Carbon (in Germany) I suspect.
 
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