TLG Ann: Talga Investor Webinar - 24th Aug 2023, 12:59pm

[annb0t]

TLG Ann: Talga Investor Webinar
Price Sensitive: N
Date: 24th Aug 2023, 12:59pm

>>> Read announcement: Google: TLG Market Announcements

 

[cosors]

Is it that we still have to be patient with a flood of news and everything is connected and therefore the webinar? Otherwise Talga could just announce it instead of explaining the situation, or?
Or is it about showing himself again since Talga was in the off or Sweden break for so long through no fault of their own? What do you think?

 

[teilenswert]

I appreciate Mark taking the time to communicate with us and answer open questions.

I also think there are good reasons for this:

• Talga can't meet many communicated timelines due to external factors, then at least they should manage to run their Quarterly Webinar at their usual frequency (February, May, August, November).
• If indeed almost all of Sweden is on summer vacation, Mark shouldn't be too busy either and should have enough time.
• Of the questions that I send through to Talga in the past, only a fraction are ever answered, and for all I care, the Q&A part could also be much more detailed.
• Of the more than 12,000 shareholders, the majority certainly do not have the time to dig for information in online forums and still have the status that the mining date will be finally decided in June.
• Who knows, maybe there really will be the next presentation in court on August 29th and Mark can give his impressions and share final deadlines for decision making with us. However, I believe there is little news and hope that in November then finally a few of the overdue milestones have been reached and Mark can reveal a bit more insight on the big picture and future roadmap.

Questions submitted:

• Why did we only receive 5,000 AUD from customers in the last quarter, while it was 174,000 AUD in the quarter before. Have you produced stable quantity and quality of AAM during the past 1,5 years?
• Initially, you talked about the EIB being able to provide us with up to €300 million, but now it's only half that? What are the reasons for this, and is it problematic?
• Are you currently working with natural graphite from outside companies? At least that's how I would interpret your statement in the last webinar ("Silicon's exciting obviously as well very excited about being able to do something that doesn't actually rely on the mine... we can use graphite from the mine obviously but we can use also use graphite from other sources to make that material we want" // "we've got to walk before we can run sort of thing but it's something to be be aware of is that when we talk about being a technology company that happens to understand mine it doesn't mean that we have to use the mine for 100 % of what we do there's all sorts of other opportunities"). Is it still your plan to use only your own graphite deposit (apart from recycled material)? If yes, then with the lengthy permitting process, the originally communicated plan to produce over 100k tons of AAM annually starting in 2026 will probably be pushed back a few years?
• When will you finalize the outcome of your internal feasibility study for Talnode-Si? Will the results be published?
• Mark has mentioned many times that he can only communicate a fraction of what makes Talga so promising and what could drive the company value up. Assuming that by the end of the year approvals are in place, financing is in place and initial offtake agreements are in place, can Mark be more open about these mysteries?
• Do you have insight into competitors' production costs and sales? If so, can you share them? Looking at these over the past 2 years, do the assumptions in your DFS still seem realistic to you or have the numbers deteriorated due to inflation, etc.? I am also quite puzzled by the fact that the analysts' assessments sometimes differ quite strongly from each other (of course, this concerns Graphite rather than AAM): https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/graphite-market-outlook-five-key-factors-to-watch vs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuWm9xOCfxY vs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=je0okRFQc5A vs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eFEC7HgeUrM
• I had high hopes that you would benefit from grants from the EU or USA, but as usual the mills of the states grind very slowly. Do you agree with my thesis: No grants for stage 1 (Nuna South), but great confidence in grants for stage 2a (Niska Expansion) or 2b (Talnode-SI Ramp Up)?
• In retrospect, and in view of the extremely long time it took to get Nunasvaara approved, would it have made sense to choose another of your mines to get approvals more quickly? Or would the timing have been comparable? Are all the other graphite mines also in the catchment area of the Sami population?

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Don't forget Tardey's post over at HC.

OK so I have looked into my crystal ball

They acknowledged that "no decision was taken" on 14 June but needed to "have a presentation" by 29 August

"Presentation" I take to mean "Reconvene or Meet" before the 29th (next Tuesday).........................they could meet today (Thursday EU time) tonight or Friday night AEST and we get a decision by tomorrow or first thing Monday morning AEST.

That would be nice timing by the Court for the weekend ("putting the garbage out" as it is called to avoid too much media)

The first "presentation" had no decision (presumably due to insufficient time) But the next will happen anytime with a decision. Otherwise why reconvene if no decision has been made.

The timing by MT for the 31st gives him time to react with "What next ?" or an opening remark like...............

"Remember when I talked about a transformational year and those trips to Palo Alto and all those other breadcrumbs..................well sit back and listen to this"

But alas the ASX requiring an announcement beforehand just made my crystal ball crack

 

[brewm0re]

Don't forget Tardey's post over at HC.

OK so I have looked into my crystal ball

They acknowledged that "no decision was taken" on 14 June but needed to "have a presentation" by 29 August

"Presentation" I take to mean "Reconvene or Meet" before the 29th (next Tuesday).........................they could meet today (Thursday EU time) tonight or Friday night AEST and we get a decision by tomorrow or first thing Monday morning AEST.

That would be nice timing by the Court for the weekend ("putting the garbage out" as it is called to avoid too much media)

The first "presentation" had no decision (presumably due to insufficient time) But the next will happen anytime with a decision. Otherwise why reconvene if no decision has been made.

The timing by MT for the 31st gives him time to react with "What next ?" or an opening remark like...............

"Remember when I talked about a transformational year and those trips to Palo Alto and all those other breadcrumbs..................well sit back and listen to this"

But alas the ASX requiring an announcement beforehand just made my crystal ball crack

Great posts above.

Im very interested (and assume there will be discussions) re: anode refinery with construction/groundworks commencing “shortly”. Just had to use it September is so close. Also, curious to hear more about the recent publishing in the quarterly:



“The Company staked three new tenements during the quarter to consolidate graphite at the Raitajärvi and Jalkunen projects, and to cover potential extensions of lithium-bearing pegmatites at Aitik East. These acquisitions relate to Talga’s value-accretive exploration strategy and advancement of its graphite and critical mineral battery metal projects.”



Really liked your detailed points teilenswert. My main query too is around TalC anode pricing compared to DFS and how close we are to expect the TalSi Feasibility Study (ie 2023 or 2024?). I suspect we are avoiding tapping into markets outside Europe (ie USA) right now, to ensure funding purposes as well as possible EU grants. Probably don’t want to bite the hand that could feed. Perhaps afterwards, the USA becomes a target, of which Silicon Anodes have funding allocated in the IRA.



With each day that goes by, TLG are further along the LCA for prospective customers testing (& likely begging) for the AAM coming out of Europe’s first EVA plant (now approaching 18 months) plus the graphite sector reaching inflection point of being dominated by EVs (ie lithium/cobalt moment eventually) and EU/NZIA/CRM approaching. This 5 month wait to see if appeals are granted needs to be rectified if this legislation is to be taken seriously.



Speaking of which, I liked seeing this recent post on Twitter relating to EU Green deal (from Maros). Could he be the catalyst for some funding



Perhaps some more MT golden breadcrumbs are available this Thursday for us to unpack “if you know what I mean” (4680/NMC is a good spot for it)

 

[brewm0re]

Great posts above.

Im very interested (and assume there will be discussions) re: anode refinery with construction/groundworks commencing “shortly”. Just had to use it September is so close. Also, curious to hear more about the recent publishing in the quarterly:



“The Company staked three new tenements during the quarter to consolidate graphite at the Raitajärvi and Jalkunen projects, and to cover potential extensions of lithium-bearing pegmatites at Aitik East. These acquisitions relate to Talga’s value-accretive exploration strategy and advancement of its graphite and critical mineral battery metal projects.”



Really liked your detailed points teilenswert. My main query too is around TalC anode pricing compared to DFS and how close we are to expect the TalSi Feasibility Study (ie 2023 or 2024?). I suspect we are avoiding tapping into markets outside Europe (ie USA) right now, to ensure funding purposes as well as possible EU grants. Probably don’t want to bite the hand that could feed. Perhaps afterwards, the USA becomes a target, of which Silicon Anodes have funding allocated in the IRA.



With each day that goes by, TLG are further along the LCA for prospective customers testing (& likely begging) for the AAM coming out of Europe’s first EVA plant (now approaching 18 months) plus the graphite sector reaching inflection point of being dominated by EVs (ie lithium/cobalt moment eventually) and EU/NZIA/CRM approaching. This 5 month wait to see if appeals are granted needs to be rectified if this legislation is to be taken seriously.



Speaking of which, I liked seeing this recent post on Twitter relating to EU Green deal (from Maros). Could he be the catalyst for some funding



Perhaps some more MT golden breadcrumbs are available this Thursday for us to unpack “if you know what I mean” (4680/NMC is a good spot for it)

 

[brewm0re]

Here’s the man himself in charge to roll out the EU Green Deal. MP will always be available if ever he needs a ‘hand’ (or hand-out uhmmm) on how TLG can assist in the cause

 

[teilenswert]

Have any of you ever considered ...

• how much anode material our EVA plant can theoretically produce?
• how much anode material has actually been produced in the last 12 months?
• how much revenue this should have brought in the past?

I checked the revenue streams from the latest quarterly announcements:

• April-June 23 - 5,000 AUD
• January-March 23: 174,000 AUD
• October-December 22: 28,000 AUD
• July-September 22: 19,000 AUD

So 226,000 AUD in 12 months. Let's assume our partners had to pay 15,000 AUD per tonne, because in February last year Talga had announced:

"Large-scale samples are being committed at prices above DFS pricing projections (ASX:TLG 1 July 2021) as part of tailored customer testing programs already underway. Receipts from the sale of large-scale samples under these customer testing programs are not expected to be material at this stage)."

So can we conclude that we have produced only 15 tonnes of anode material in the last 12 months? Mark has often pointed out that we are active in different stages of testing with over 20 companies, so only 1 ton per customer over 12 months?

I have to admit, I find this mind game extremely confusing. I had thought that the EVA is able to produce very large quantities of anode material, as Mark explained that the actual factory is about 10-20 times as big as the EVA plant (if I remember and understand his statements correctly, starting from 10:39 in the RIU Webinar below). But then I would expect that we could produce in the range of 100-500 tons a year.

Do I have gross errors in my thinking? Do we actually produce so little material with such a large plant? Or were the price assumptions from the February 2022 announcement just hot air? Not sure if that's a point someone would like to address in the next webinar?!

 

[Monkeymandan]

Have any of you ever considered ...

• how much anode material our EVA plant can theoretically produce?
• how much anode material has actually been produced in the last 12 months?
• how much revenue this should have brought in the past?

I checked the revenue streams from the latest quarterly announcements:

• April-June 23 - 5,000 AUD
• January-March 23: 174,000 AUD
• October-December 22: 28,000 AUD
• July-September 22: 19,000 AUD

So 226,000 AUD in 12 months. Let's assume our partners had to pay 15,000 AUD per tonne, because in February last year Talga had announced:



So can we conclude that we have produced only 15 tonnes of anode material in the last 12 months? Mark has often pointed out that we are active in different stages of testing with over 20 companies, so only 1 ton per customer over 12 months?

I have to admit, I find this mind game extremely confusing. I had thought that the EVA is able to produce very large quantities of anode material, as Mark explained that the actual factory is about 10-20 times as big as the EVA plant (if I remember and understand his statements correctly, starting from 10:39 in the RIU Webinar below). But then I would expect that we could produce in the range of 100-500 tons a year.

Do I have gross errors in my thinking? Do we actually produce so little material with such a large plant? Or were the price assumptions from the February 2022 announcement just hot air? Not sure if that's a point someone would like to address in the next webinar?!

I’ve pondered the same myself.

It could be that they’ve provided sufficient samples for all 19ktpa production to be committed to off-take (with binding agreements waiting in the wings for the permit to be resolved), or they have finished samples of talnode c stockpiled, or possibly both.

I don’t think they would be charging $15k/tonne for the samples. I imagine they would supply them at cost, if that. They want buyers to sign on the dotted line. Bare in mind the ACC agreement alone gobbles up half of our planned production. If they needed say 20tonnes of material to complete the qualification process, and one or more other buyers required same for the other half of our total production, that would be broadly in line with the revenue stream we’ve seen.

Pure speculation obviously.

 

[Monkeymandan]

Great presentation.

Have to say this is the first time in a few months I’ve felt compelled to place an order for more shares.

Stand out points for me…

Talnode-Si: I get the impression when we hear something it’s going to be well progressed, ie offtakes in place underwriting financing to develop the project. I’m with Cosors in hoping ACC could be the cornerstone customer for this.

Permit: They’re as frustrated as us by the waiting, but the court could make an announcement any time now. Implied the issues being raised in appeals are not new, and would have been considered as part of the original permit decision. Also noted they have been in discussion with Appellant's with a view to having them withdraw appeals. Noted if Appeals are rejected, the appellants have a final avenue to appeal - I assume to the Supreme Court.

Expansion: Made reference to ‘massive’ expansion beyond Niska volume.

Offtakes: suppliers beyond ACC and Verkor getting close to completing qualification process.

Financing: sounds possible some or all of the equity funding may be via a pathway that is not issuing equity in the company, eg from Sovereign Wealth funds.

Just my interpretation.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Noted if Appeals are rejected, the appellants have a final avenue to appeal - I assume to the Supreme Court.

Supreme Court ????.......I'd imagine that would require enormous $$$$$ if other Western Court systems are anything to go by. They'd need a financial backer with deeeeeeeeeep pockets to put up a cash surety first I would expect.

 

[ACinEur]

Every time I listen to MT, I go ‘yes’ this mission that TLG is on sits firmly with my values… A good presentation and nothing unexpected, good to hear he is as frustrated as we are on permits. I did think the one comment that was odd, was ‘we still have 100% of the company’ (or thereabouts) and it makes me wonder if some of the background negotiations to make the appeals go away is ‘Equity’ to the local Sami…
Also comments on Debt funding were very positive, I’ve worked on similar type funding projects on the Investor side so know how hard it is to get everything signed off, had a laugh at the Lawyers on holiday comment!
So all good, sit tight and don’t look at the SP every day

 

[Monkeymandan]

Every time I listen to MT, I go ‘yes’ this mission that TLG is on sits firmly with my values… A good presentation and nothing unexpected, good to hear he is as frustrated as we are on permits. I did think the one comment that was odd, was ‘we still have 100% of the company’ (or thereabouts) and it makes me wonder if some of the background negotiations to make the appeals go away is ‘Equity’ to the local Sami…
Also comments on Debt funding were very positive, I’ve worked on similar type funding projects on the Investor side so know how hard it is to get everything signed off, had a laugh at the Lawyers on holiday comment!
So all good, sit tight and don’t look at the SP every day

Hi ACinEur

I think the comment regarding 100% ownership of the company related to foreign govt’s sometimes requiring (demanding) a stake in the company in exchange for license to mine.

 

[scep]

Every time I listen to MT, I go ‘yes’ this mission that TLG is on sits firmly with my values… A good presentation and nothing unexpected, good to hear he is as frustrated as we are on permits. I did think the one comment that was odd, was ‘we still have 100% of the company’ (or thereabouts) and it makes me wonder if some of the background negotiations to make the appeals go away is ‘Equity’ to the local Sami…
Also comments on Debt funding were very positive, I’ve worked on similar type funding projects on the Investor side so know how hard it is to get everything signed off, had a laugh at the Lawyers on holiday comment!
So all good, sit tight and don’t look at the SP every day

Sure, if the Sami get a stake in Talga through their obstruction of progress, it sets a precedent for many other mines in 'their' area. A business model worth chasing for them. Very unfortunate, but we would probably do the same being in their position. Talga should, imho, not give in to this type of blackmail. Only the government can help out. But, was it not Ronald Reagan who asked; What is the most frightening what can happen to you when you need help? His answer: meeting a person who says 'I am from the government and here to help you'. You know what I mean.
Anyway, I am loaded till over my ears and put in a small order today. Could not resist

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

and it makes me wonder if some of the background negotiations to make the appeals go away is ‘Equity’ to the local Sami…

I have made my thoughts on that previously as I think that would be a fantastic move.

It would need to be a meaningful and fair offer though say 3 million shares as a starter. That way we get them hooked on the annual cash flow from dividends just like a meth addict is hooked on their cut or uncut batch of meth.

Then with future expansions we go through the Court system again with the Court effectively being a neutral umpire to lay down a TLG minimum requirement then award them another X million shares for allowing the expansion

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Sure, if the Sami get a stake in Talga through their obstruction of progress, it sets a precedent for many other mines in 'their' area.

Who cares about other mines ?

I only care about ours........."that sits firmly within my values"................. LOL

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

Logic would dictate that if the appeals are thrown out that we finally are able to start the mining operation build rather than have to wait again.

Or is that just so stupidly logical on my part that it disturbs the atomic glue holding the Universe together ????

 

[Semmel]

If appeals of the Sami go away with an equity stake in talga, then this would reveal the Sami argument as what it is, a money grab. Hence it would immediately invalidate all their arguments. Especially these of preserving their ancestors lifestyle.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

If appeals of the Sami go away with an equity stake in talga, then this would reveal the Sami argument as what it is, a money grab. Hence it would immediately invalidate all their arguments. Especially these of preserving their ancestors lifestyle.

Not if they market it as ....................

"A Great Victory over the Greedy Capitalist Mining Companies taking their instructions from the evil government of Stockholm or worse from Foreign Lands" .....................( show me a rural community that does not hate it's country's government)

and by saying all the money will be spent on preserving Sami culture and that your greatest victory still to come is that you have

"forced them and their filthy capitalist practices to go underground in the future" ............................to further preserve Santa's flock.

 

[cosors]

Have any of you ever considered ...

• how much anode material our EVA plant can theoretically produce?
• how much anode material has actually been produced in the last 12 months?
• how much revenue this should have brought in the past?

I checked the revenue streams from the latest quarterly announcements:

• April-June 23 - 5,000 AUD
• January-March 23: 174,000 AUD
• October-December 22: 28,000 AUD
• July-September 22: 19,000 AUD

So 226,000 AUD in 12 months. Let's assume our partners had to pay 15,000 AUD per tonne, because in February last year Talga had announced:



So can we conclude that we have produced only 15 tonnes of anode material in the last 12 months? Mark has often pointed out that we are active in different stages of testing with over 20 companies, so only 1 ton per customer over 12 months?

I have to admit, I find this mind game extremely confusing. I had thought that the EVA is able to produce very large quantities of anode material, as Mark explained that the actual factory is about 10-20 times as big as the EVA plant (if I remember and understand his statements correctly, starting from 10:39 in the RIU Webinar below). But then I would expect that we could produce in the range of 100-500 tons a year.

Do I have gross errors in my thinking? Do we actually produce so little material with such a large plant? Or were the price assumptions from the February 2022 announcement just hot air? Not sure if that's a point someone would like to address in the next webinar?!

I can't help you with this question. I also find it difficult to assume how much Talga actually gets for the samples and test series. The industry is different from mine back then where prototypes always fetched a higher price because the development costs were added on. I can imagine that many samples left the house for free.
I had only in mind that the EVA plant would be the same as that in the factory with the difference that there would be three of them. Whether the one from Swerim will then be integrated into the factory, so we would only have to order two new ones or will remain at Swerim for samples is just an assumption, I don't remember exactly if and where I picked that up.
So far I assumed that the factory will have exactly three times the capacity of the EVA.

I assume the size of the factory is also determined by the purification plant, which is done externally so far. Moreover, the hall at Swerim is an improvised transition and certainly not as spacious as it needs to be. In addition, there are meeting rooms, staff rooms such as a canteen, laboratory rooms, logistics storage rooms, etc.

...the Eva plant I showed you earlier the little bits of mechanical kit in our ovens and so forth representsrepresents about one third of one of these lines so...

I don't know if that is misleadingly worded and I am wrong. As I mentioned, I assumed that the EVA line would be exactly the same as the three later in the factory.

The new plot is estimated to be more than three times as long and wide as the one at Swerim.

Maybe we can just assume that the hall at Swerim will be about the same size as the three on the new site, except that they will certainly be a little more roomy.