Media

[Semmel]

What we’ve been discussing on these pages some time now, but now in a 1000 page report:

It’s Time to Wake Up | GTK

The research report made by Associate Research Professor Simon Michaux from GTK shows that if we want to transition away from fossil fuels, mining will have to increase greatly.

www.gtk.fi

Hmmm, did a quick search in the document.
* Talga: no hits
* Vittangi: no hits
* Graphite: Couple of hits for nuclear reactors as regulation rods and a couple of mentions w.r.t. battery anodes. Also spells "Global Reserves (2018)" which tells you that research on the topic is half a decade behind reality.

Cant say I am excitet about that one to be honest.

 

[cosors]

Hmmm, did a quick search in the document.
* Talga: no hits
* Vittangi: no hits
* Graphite: Couple of hits for nuclear reactors as regulation rods and a couple of mentions w.r.t. battery anodes. Also spells "Global Reserves (2018)" which tells you that research on the topic is half a decade behind reality.

Cant say I am excitet about that one to be honest.

At GTK I think we had processed our graphite until now.

 

[Shihan]

Talga’s system for growth

Ahead of its scale up to commercial production, Talga Group needed the right help to build Finance and Procurement functions.

home.kpmg

 

[Semmel]

Talga’s system for growth

Ahead of its scale up to commercial production, Talga Group needed the right help to build Finance and Procurement functions.

home.kpmg

Cool thx, it's rare that we read from a different company about Talga

"Talga selected SAP S/4HANA, largely due to its ability to enable the latest in finance and procurement processes and automation"

HANA is an SAP Database system which can be scaled to enormous size and does data mining directly on the DB memory without the need to transfer the data to some other system first. No idea why Talga needs that but it probably got other useful functions.

 

[cosors]

Cool thx, it's rare that we read from a different company about Talga

"Talga selected SAP S/4HANA, largely due to its ability to enable the latest in finance and procurement processes and automation"

HANA is an SAP Database system which can be scaled to enormous size and does data mining directly on the DB memory without the need to transfer the data to some other system first. No idea why Talga needs that but it probably got other useful functions.

Random find:
Program Manager at Northvolt Systems
and before:
Since 01/2019, Stockholm Sweden | Equipment & Total Supply Chain - RCS
End to end processes equipment and total supply chain. Engineering, Operation, Procurement, SQA and Supply Chain.
SAP S4/HANA and SAP IBP
https://se.linkedin.com/in/aurelienserignat

I just wanted to find out whether Talga can dock directly with the new ERP system to the distribution of e.g. VW/NV. This seems to be possible, but whether it makes sense or is desired is another question, as it is time-consuming and expensive. At the end, this is not really interesting for us and is just a passing thought of mine.

 

[Diogenese]

Random find:
Program Manager at Northvolt Systems
and before:
Since 01/2019, Stockholm Sweden | Equipment & Total Supply Chain - RCS
End to end processes equipment and total supply chain. Engineering, Operation, Procurement, SQA and Supply Chain.
SAP S4/HANA and SAP IBP
https://se.linkedin.com/in/aurelienserignat

I just wanted to find out whether Talga can dock directly with the new ERP system to the distribution of e.g. VW/NV. This seems to be possible, but whether it makes sense or is desired is another question, as it is time-consuming and expensive. At the end, this is not really interesting for us and is just a passing thought of mine.

"HANA is an SAP Database system which can be scaled to enormous size"

S4/HANA can handle trillions!

 

[Gero]

 

[Semmel]

"HANA is an SAP Database system which can be scaled to enormous size"

S4/HANA can handle trillions!

I can't think of a use case for that to be honest. However, maybe HANA is the i terrace to the quality assurance system that customers use in order to monitor the production process and product parameters, production machinery status, etc. I can totally see that a high tier customer might require this.

 

[Semmel]

Ok, fringe topic to Talga, but interesting nonetheless. I just watched TheLimitingFactors take on the 4680 and its quite interesting for a number of reasons as it shows in which direction the industry will most likely go in the next years:



I bet everyone is transitioning to 4680 format for eventually for nickle based cathodes and blade form factors for iron based cathodes. I expect pouch cells are going to go extinct. However, one thing that was (again) missing from the slides he showed: the anode. This is a mystery to me. Why is the anode so often excluded from battery presentations? Or if mentioned, just as an unimportant side note?

Example:
at 3:00, the plot shows the battery cost breakup.. without the anode. What?? Why? Is the anode free?

Well.. after looking around a bit, I found this from Roland Gerger:

https://content.rolandberger.com/hubfs/07_presse/Roland%20Berger_The%20Lithium-Ion%20Battery%20Market%20and%20Supply%20Chain_2022_final.pdf

Again, in the cost analysis, Anode is missing. In the analysis of investments, anode is tiny compared to others. This will change dramatically in the future and Talga will profit from it at some point. The fact that Anode is not a factor in the cost analysis is, that its relatively cheap as a raw material. But here we know how difficult it is to make active anode material (coated graphite particles, with or without silicon mixed in). The problem is, that graphite didnt rise in prices still because it is not at the most limited front right now. But it will be eventually because it cant be scaled easily either. And when China comes to its limits in terms of production, as it is already with stockpiles being cleared out, prices will rise. And then graphite will take a larger part in the battery cell breakup. Which will in turn spur more investments in anode manufacturing, which will in turn make larger bars in the graphics of Roland Berger and others.

This will also boost our profitability with anode getting more expensive. Its already rumored to go to $34k per t (by ecograph, see https://www.ecograf.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/2307390.pdf slide 25, no idea how they come to that so lets take it with a small grain of salt). Say we go to $25k/t for Talnode-C instead, with $5k/t production cost, we are looking at a profit of $20k per t.

With the hunger for anode getting stronger everywhere, indipendence from china being more and more important, we might even see an expedited permission process for the Niska expansion. And hopefully an increase in production to >300ktpa Talnode-C as well (by 2026/7). Just to spur your imagination. Think 300ktpa * $20k/t * 20 p/e / 300M shares = $400 per share. One can dream of course but that would be the golden goose scenario.

 

[Affenhorst]

Ok, fringe topic to Talga, but interesting nonetheless. I just watched TheLimitingFactors take on the 4680 and its quite interesting for a number of reasons as it shows in which direction the industry will most likely go in the next years:



I bet everyone is transitioning to 4680 format for eventually for nickle based cathodes and blade form factors for iron based cathodes. I expect pouch cells are going to go extinct. However, one thing that was (again) missing from the slides he showed: the anode. This is a mystery to me. Why is the anode so often excluded from battery presentations? Or if mentioned, just as an unimportant side note?

Example:
at 3:00, the plot shows the battery cost breakup.. without the anode. What?? Why? Is the anode free?

Well.. after looking around a bit, I found this from Roland Gerger:

https://content.rolandberger.com/hubfs/07_presse/Roland%20Berger_The%20Lithium-Ion%20Battery%20Market%20and%20Supply%20Chain_2022_final.pdf

Again, in the cost analysis, Anode is missing. In the analysis of investments, anode is tiny compared to others. This will change dramatically in the future and Talga will profit from it at some point. The fact that Anode is not a factor in the cost analysis is, that its relatively cheap as a raw material. But here we know how difficult it is to make active anode material (coated graphite particles, with or without silicon mixed in). The problem is, that graphite didnt rise in prices still because it is not at the most limited front right now. But it will be eventually because it cant be scaled easily either. And when China comes to its limits in terms of production, as it is already with stockpiles being cleared out, prices will rise. And then graphite will take a larger part in the battery cell breakup. Which will in turn spur more investments in anode manufacturing, which will in turn make larger bars in the graphics of Roland Berger and others.

This will also boost our profitability with anode getting more expensive. Its already rumored to go to $34k per t (by ecograph, see https://www.ecograf.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/2307390.pdf slide 25, no idea how they come to that so lets take it with a small grain of salt). Say we go to $25k/t for Talnode-C instead, with $5k/t production cost, we are looking at a profit of $20k per t.

With the hunger for anode getting stronger everywhere, indipendence from china being more and more important, we might even see an expedited permission process for the Niska expansion. And hopefully an increase in production to >300ktpa Talnode-C as well (by 2026/7). Just to spur your imagination. Think 300ktpa * $20k/t * 20 p/e / 300M shares = $400 per share. One can dream of course but that would be the golden goose scenario.

I was wondering the same regarding Elon Musk. Always talks about Lithium and Nickel. He never mentions anode. To me there are two options... Option one: he does not want to draw attention to it, though that would be uncharacteristic. Option two: He does not consider it to be as critical as there is no fundamental limitation. You can always make more synthetic. It may be a dirty and expensive thing to do, but there is plenty of raw material (hydrocarbons) to be converted if needed. Scaling synthetic is probably faster and easier than minerals that need to be mined.

 

[WheresTheMonkey]

I was wondering the same regarding Elon Musk. Always talks about Lithium and Nickel. He never mentions anode. To me there are two options... Option one: he does not want to draw attention to it, though that would be uncharacteristic. Option two: He does not consider it to be as critical as there is no fundamental limitation. You can always make more synthetic. It may be a dirty and expensive thing to do, but there is plenty of raw material (hydrocarbons) to be converted if needed. Scaling synthetic is probably faster and easier than minerals that need to be mined.

The "Emissions Court of Public Opinion" will decide how much synthetic can be used by the West. Not Elon Musk.

He might get away with it in Asia but certainly not in the EU or the Americas.

 

[Semmel]

I was wondering the same regarding Elon Musk. Always talks about Lithium and Nickel. He never mentions anode. To me there are two options... Option one: he does not want to draw attention to it, though that would be uncharacteristic. Option two: He does not consider it to be as critical as there is no fundamental limitation. You can always make more synthetic. It may be a dirty and expensive thing to do, but there is plenty of raw material (hydrocarbons) to be converted if needed. Scaling synthetic is probably faster and easier than minerals that need to be mined.

Actually, i thought the same thing as you. Not so sure any more. The feedstock would need to be changed to something else, like natural gas (which i think there was a way to use it) but the investment is still higher than natural. The energy would need to be renewable, which is obviously possible. So there is no fundamental showstopper to scale synthetic arbitrarily large, but there might be an economic reason to use natural regardless.

 

[Affenhorst]

Actually, i thought the same thing as you. Not so sure any more. The feedstock would need to be changed to something else, like natural gas (which i think there was a way to use it) but the investment is still higher than natural. The energy would need to be renewable, which is obviously possible. So there is no fundamental showstopper to scale synthetic arbitrarily large, but there might be an economic reason to use natural regardless.

Oh yeah, high quality natural anode is still very attractive and can command a high price. But there is no danger of it having no alternatives.

Synthetic is quite dirty in the way it is currently produced in China, but even then over the lifetime of an electric car this is still better than having an internal combustion engine.

 

[cosors]

I would like to point out that renewable electricity will remain scarce in Europe for the foreseeable future. For electrification we must not only replace fossil electricity, but drastically increase it. In Sweden e.g. the situation is particularly tense. At that time, it was said that the country was attractive because of renewables and so industry was attracted. Today they have a big problem to distribute the existing one. In 2021, 78% of wind turbine projects were prevented. This is not different in any European country. And all this apart from the acute situation. Tin and aluminum production has already been stopped. We are threatened with a production stop of ammonia for AddBlue. And this is just the beginning. SG is not scalable at will. There is not an unlimited amount of renewable electricity. It will remain scarce for many years. That is why there is an effort to save as much as possible in all areas. That SG is arbitrarily scalable and with renewable power better than NG is based on years of theoretical considerations and lobbying by the SG industry here and especially in China. That is my opinion.

 

[Semmel]

No, to scale SG to arbitrary size is not a lobbying effort, its simple physics. Its also obviously true that we dont have the energy to do it either. So imagine it like this: You build an arbitrary number of SG factories with its own solar power generation attached and only use that. That way its doable. I just argue its not economical. And thats ultimately your argument as well. Its a side story to this that industry and politics in the EU failed to embrace renewable energy sooner. But that changes now. Unlimited SG is not going to be a thing within the next 10 years though. But from the mind set of Elon, its a non-topic for the above reasons. In reality though, its not feasible to scale SG at will and that is why Talga is not threatened by SG within 20 years or so. Though we are heading towards an economy that has abundant renewable energy.

Watch this presentations of Tony Seba, 12 minutes you should invest:



I think it will happen very close to what he projects as his arguments have no counter as far as I know. I know Elon believes this in very similar ways. It also makes a lot of sense. The war in Ukraine just lit a bonfire under the entire situation. The limiting factor for the transition to renewable is not economics any more, it is the ability to manufacture the solar, wind and batteries. The Fossil fuel industry will fight this every way possible but in the end, they will lose because the economics of renewable energy are so compelling.

 

[Micreg]

Oh yeah, high quality natural anode is still very attractive and can command a high price. But there is no danger of it having no alternatives.

Synthetic is quite dirty in the way it is currently produced in China, but even then over the lifetime of an electric car this is still better than having an internal combustion engine.

Agree.

So Musk is building EV capability in America, China, and Europe.

It would make sense to me that he will pump out EVs and/or associated tech in each jurisdiction, in the best way possible in each location, given the unique constraints and opportunities in each location.

He is a pragmatist, and a futurist.

His Chinese operation is mass scale given the labour market and other factors. So from there, some components will be somewhat dirty for awhile.

But I’m guessing he will not let perfect now be the enemy of good for the longer term.

So to TLG. It would make no sense for Musk to ignore the TLG offering in his European bases, once the TLG offering is proven.

 

[cosors]

Just WOW!

https://twitter.com/dinosaurman1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

 

[cosors]

Just WOW!

https://twitter.com/dinosaurman1?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

---just as an example for the infos from the photos. Normally this takes >10 years because the two previous governments wanted it that way.
It happens and that now! Voilà!

today as site getting ready to scale up Anode for Europe

Of course, this is not the big power supply line that has to be laid across the country and for which the power supplier plans to halve the approval time and is therefore a year late. For the year 2025 they want to improvise it would not be a problem for Talga, I have read.

 

[Semmel]

While writing the financing thread, I stumbled upon the ABB news section regarding Talga. Didnt know this existed.

https://new.abb.com/mining/reference-stories/open-pit-mining/talga-collaborates-with-abb-to-reach-its-strategic-goal-of-zero-emissions-mining-for-major-european-battery-anode-project

It seems ABB is not only interested in providing equipment for the Vittangi mine and processing facilities, but also for the Niska expansion. Its obviously logical but I wasnt aware of that. Interesting read.

 

[Gero]