BRN Discussion Ongoing

[Fastback6666]

$3 SP = $5.4B MC. At a high PE100 will require $54M NPAT / 0.7 ATO = $77.14M EBITDA / 0.65 = $118.68M revenue.

To maintain around $3 SP with hot PE100 requires circa $120M revenue.

$5.4B MC / $120M revenue = x45 revenue multiple.

A Nasdaq listing could result in PE150 similar to Nvidia & would require $36M NPAT & $79.12M revenue.

$5.4B MC / $80M revenue = x67.5 revenue multiple.

PE100 & PE150 are quite high so would require high growth rate & high forward looking revenue.

So the question becomes, how long until BRN can generate $80-120M revenue?

Could be quite fast such as via 50c royalty from Qualcomm x 200M smart phones = $100M revenue.

Or slower such as via Mercedes with premium cars having about 70 MCU's x 15% AI equipped = 10 x 2M cars pa = 20M x $1 royalty = $20M revenue. If 50% of the 70 MCU's are AI equipped in future due to extra sensors/Lidar etc = 35 x 2M cars pa = 70M x $1 royalty = $70M revenue.

I allowed higher royalty for Mercedes as their products are more expensive & royalty was going to be higher for more expensive products.

Then there will also be washing machine, dryer, air conditioner etc applications for MCU's as well. Will take a few years for mass adoption & there will be hundreds of millions units per year. May start with 25-50M units first year x 50c royalty = $12.5-25M revenue & within 2-3 years reach $100M revenue.

Combination of the above should result in about $100M revenue by end of next year including more license agreements. Thus SP should maintain around $3 SP towards the end of 2024. But it will need to be at a high PE100-150.

However, BRN SP tends to spike due to market excitement so it would not surprise me to see SP at $3 on the back of a couple of big name license agreements. If Qualcomm were to be announced it would create a frenzy & the $100M revenue will get priced in within 3-4 months of the announcement. 50c SP x 6 run to $3 SP would be highly likely as we had 39c SP x 6 run to $2.34 intraday peak when Mercedes was announced without any revenue.

So $3 SP could come as early as next 6 months or as late as end of 2024. The earlier it gets to $3 SP without revenue the higher the probability of a 50% retrace to $1.50.

Happy Easter to all.

Well laid out Steve and some great scenarios shown.

In the end there needs to be information provided by Brainchip(ideally) or partner to quantify the value or volume in a deal or partnership to sustain a higher share price and we all want that to happen in a faster time frame.

If NDA’s stop information being released to the market for the bigger deals and all we can look at is the quarterly reports, then it is going to be more of a guessing game and longer and more bumpy road to a higher SP, as all you can go by is a trajectory of revenues but only proven out over a longer time period, not as much early forward pricing in can occur in this instance.

I could see when we hit over the $1.70 mark on the Mercedes news that the market cap was getting very very high for a company with not much revenue and was hoping that there would be a follow up announcement soon after to back up the value or volume of involvement with Mercedes - that was the only way that $1.70 and above could be sustained. Unfortunately that did not happen and the slide back down occurred.

We stay invested as we know any one of these large partners/deals can be announced and value quantified at any tick of the clock on any day at this point time and multiples of these announcements can play out with these huge whale partners this year...we are in the sweet spot now for real commercial products and dollars to flow...secure yourselves for the ride one way or the other.

 

[rgupta]

$3 SP = $5.4B MC. At a high PE100 will require $54M NPAT / 0.7 ATO = $77.14M EBITDA / 0.65 = $118.68M revenue.

To maintain around $3 SP with hot PE100 requires circa $120M revenue.

$5.4B MC / $120M revenue = x45 revenue multiple.

A Nasdaq listing could result in PE150 similar to Nvidia & would require $36M NPAT & $79.12M revenue.

$5.4B MC / $80M revenue = x67.5 revenue multiple.

PE100 & PE150 are quite high so would require high growth rate & high forward looking revenue.

So the question becomes, how long until BRN can generate $80-120M revenue?

Could be quite fast such as via 50c royalty from Qualcomm x 200M smart phones = $100M revenue.

Or slower such as via Mercedes with premium cars having about 70 MCU's x 15% AI equipped = 10 x 2M cars pa = 20M x $1 royalty = $20M revenue. If 50% of the 70 MCU's are AI equipped in future due to extra sensors/Lidar etc = 35 x 2M cars pa = 70M x $1 royalty = $70M revenue.

I allowed higher royalty for Mercedes as their products are more expensive & royalty was going to be higher for more expensive products.

Then there will also be washing machine, dryer, air conditioner etc applications for MCU's as well. Will take a few years for mass adoption & there will be hundreds of millions units per year. May start with 25-50M units first year x 50c royalty = $12.5-25M revenue & within 2-3 years reach $100M revenue.

Combination of the above should result in about $100M revenue by end of next year including more license agreements. Thus SP should maintain around $3 SP towards the end of 2024. But it will need to be at a high PE100-150.

However, BRN SP tends to spike due to market excitement so it would not surprise me to see SP at $3 on the back of a couple of big name license agreements. If Qualcomm were to be announced it would create a frenzy & the $100M revenue will get priced in within 3-4 months of the announcement. 50c SP x 6 run to $3 SP would be highly likely as we had 39c SP x 6 run to $2.34 intraday peak when Mercedes was announced without any revenue.

So $3 SP could come as early as next 6 months or as late as end of 2024. The earlier it gets to $3 SP without revenue the higher the probability of a 50% retrace to $1.50.

Happy Easter to all.

What a calculation and no one can make a fault out of that.
On the other hand everyone including me is so excited to see share price can bounce very quickly.
One thing I want to add is this price drop is mainly because of shorter's activity and if we keep our faith in the technology and keep holding the stock until positive news start flowing, I assume $3 is not that far either.
To me the main things to look out are
1.Technology is real and everyone start talking on same.
2. We have a growing list of partners are we are definitely passed that stage where everyone will ask had they heard about brainchip?
3. Qualcomm is promoting a similarly technology which means even if they are competitors( only if but most probably a friend) there is a market and we can sell our product quickly enough.
And next mile stones for me are
1. Getting break even ( expenses and income equal)
2. Announcement of licence agreement by one or two EAP partners.
3. Start of 1st royality income.
4. Company can start projecting forward looking statements.
5. One of major broker start coverage on brn.
So to me until those things are start getting covered we may keep on getting same fluctuations based on assumptions.
On top a nasdaq listing could be an icing on cake.

 

[Humble Genius]

Some more exposure for Brainchip.....

https://www.fierceelectronics.com/iot-wireless/how-smart-edge-get

Not all edges are created equal

What makes the smart edge murky is the definition of edge, which means different things to different people, Nandan Nayampally, CMO at BrainChip, said in an interview with Fierce Electronics. He was previously at ARM for more than 15 years when the edge was viewed as primarily sensor driven. “That's how IoT kind of cropped up,” he said. “IoT is a sensor plus connectivity plus processing.” While a Dell or an Intel might think of the smart edge as another giant box that’s now smaller, the right starting point to him is IoT with AI.

AI on the edge is a step forward from a sensor just doing one function, with devices now having more storage, memory, and processing power. Nayampally said this battle between cloud and the edge has been going on a for a while, going back to the days of a terminal connected to mainframe before the move to a client/server model. “What you realize is however much we think that latency to cloud or connectivity to cloud is guaranteed, and the bandwidth assured, it's never going to be the case,” he said. “You need that intelligence and computational power at the edge.”

BrainChip's Akida processor can learn at the edge to address security and privacy while limiting network congestion. (BrainChip)
Having the smarts at the edge is beneficial for preventative maintenance in factories and patient monitoring, Nayampally said, both in terms of latency and privacy. “Anytime you send raw data or sensitive data out, you are obviously going to have challenges.” Privacy and security have become especially important to the general public, he added. BrainChip was started with the idea that edge computing was necessary and that any approach to AI at the edge had to be different from the cloud. “The cloud kind of assumes almost infinite resources and infinite compute.”

While compute resources at the edge are rather finite, more AI is possible due to advances with low power hardware including memory and systems on chip (SoC), which means not all training and machine learning need be shipped back to the cloud. Nayampally said it’s a matter of scaling, with neuromorphic computing offering inspiration for how to low power intelligence at the edge. “Let's try to emulate the efficiency of it and start from there.”

Machine learning will increasingly happen at the edge both because of inherent capability but also out of necessity. Nayampally said some applications that require a real-time response can’t afford the delay between the edge and the cloud, or the power. “Any time you use radio and connectivity, especially to cloud, that burns a lot of power,” he said. “Radios are the most expensive parts of devices.” Smaller, more cost-effective devices may not be able to afford to have connectivity and need to do more compute locally.

Nayampally said the neuromorphic nature of BrainChip’s Akida platform allows it to learn at the edge, which also addresses security and privacy and reduces network congestion – today’s autonomous vehicles can generate a terabyte of data per day, he noted, so it makes sense to be selective about how much data needs to travel the network.

For the smart edge, simple is better and BrainChip’s processor does that from a computational standpoint, as well as from a development and deployment standpoint, Nayampally said. “It's almost like a self-contained processor.” It is neuromorphic and event driven, so it only processes data when needed, and only communicates when needed, he said.

 

[Realinfo]

‘4 bits is enough’…3 years lead is not enough !!

There has been a great deal of chatter recently about competitors, and whether our battler continues to enjoy a three year technological lead. ‘Are we in this’…’Is this us’ etc…etc. Much of the discussion has centred on Qualcomm and whether they’re able to do what they’re professing because Akida’s inside…or heaven forbid, they’ve developed a competitive alternative.

Whilst I accept there’s more than one way to skin a cat, we only have to listen to what’s being said by people in the know. Don’t you think Intel would have more than looked around at what was going on, before swallowing their pride after spending billions on Loihi, and inviting Akida into the fold. I know some say they’re faltering, but Intel remains a force to be reckoned with. There are numerous other serious players also on the Akida bandwagon. Me myself personally reckons it’s only a matter of time before IBM do an Intel, and hop aboard.

Then there’s the very recent statements from our battler’s leaders via the ASX…

’The company is accelerating development of next generation Akida IP and products, to extend our technological lead’
Sean Hehir - ASX 30 January 2023

’During the past year, the company made solid progress on extending our technology leadership via our research and engineering efforts’
Antonio Vianni - ASX 24 February 2023

’With this launch (2nd generation Akida) we have significantly extended our competitive advantage in neuromorphic AI’
Sean Hehir - ASX 6 March 2023

Perhaps the most important reason to believe there is no competitor within cooee…was when yours truly invited the 1000 eyes to find somebody…anybody….and after weeks and weeks of trying, they came up with a blank.

There have also been suggestions that companies in this space (Qualcomm included) are locked into contractural arrangements with others that have to be fulfilled, before they can consider Akida. They may have contractual obligations with others that they’re dutifully implementing…but can you imagine them not also delving into a life with Akida, knowing it’s vastly superior capabilities and the competitive advantage it brings to the table. For mine it would be nonsense to suggest otherwise.

As has been stated here before…anyone who attempts to compete in this space without Akida, risks going the way of the dinosaurs. Unless you’re technologically illiterate, naive or simply daft, Akida is no longer the secret…the big secret is how you intend to use it. This is why, after telling the world about the clever people at Brainchip, Mercedes has been very silent about how they’re gunna use it.

Have a safe and happy Easter…I hope your footy team wins.

 

[Boab]

Guess one one has a company email to download this report and then post it.

Embedded World 2023—the Latest IoT Chipset and Edge Trends

36-page event report highlighting key insights from Embedded World 2023, one of the world’s leading fairs for the embedded community.

iot-analytics.com

From within the article. Very nice plug. That's two nuggets in one day @Rocket577

2. A new AI design cycle for embedded devices is emerging
The embedded community is getting ready for hardware and devices supporting AI/ML execution at the edge. This means massive hardware design changes and complexity and an increased software stack complexity. AI hardware development company BrainChip showcased its new Akida AI processor IP that integrates with Arm’s new Cortex-M85 for handling advanced machine learning workloads at the edge. Chipmaker Renesas is one of the clients of Akida AI that showcased AI running on Arm Cortex-M85. AI-based machine vision applications are one of the driving forces of AI adoption at this point. Adlink Technologies and Vision Components, for example, showcased their respective new AI camera solutions that are capable of deploying large AI algorithms on their equipment.

 

[Deleted member 118]

AI at the Edge Ushers in the Hyperconnected Era

We have entered the next phase of the digital revolution in which the data center has stretched to the edge of the network and where myriad Internet of Things (IoT) devices gather and process data with the aid of artificial intelligence (AI).

d2iq.com

AI has been called “the most disruptive technology of the century,” and “the biggest commercial opportunity in today’s fast-changing economy. Indeed, McKinsey’s Tech Trends Outlook 2022 sizes the global AI opportunity at $10 trillion to $15 trillion.

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/the%20top%20trends%20in%20tech%202022/McKinsey-Tech-Trends-Outlook-2022-Applied-AI.pdf

 

[Deleted member 118]

From within the article. Very nice plug. That's two nuggets in one day @Rocket577

2. A new AI design cycle for embedded devices is emerging
The embedded community is getting ready for hardware and devices supporting AI/ML execution at the edge. This means massive hardware design changes and complexity and an increased software stack complexity. AI hardware development company BrainChip showcased its new Akida AI processor IP that integrates with Arm’s new Cortex-M85 for handling advanced machine learning workloads at the edge. Chipmaker Renesas is one of the clients of Akida AI that showcased AI running on Arm Cortex-M85. AI-based machine vision applications are one of the driving forces of AI adoption at this point. Adlink Technologies and Vision Components, for example, showcased their respective new AI camera solutions that are capable of deploying large AI algorithms on their equipment.

 

[Humble Genius]

https://www.vdcresearch.com/ - A potential customer or integrator of Brainchip?

 

[Boab]

AI at the Edge Ushers in the Hyperconnected Era

We have entered the next phase of the digital revolution in which the data center has stretched to the edge of the network and where myriad Internet of Things (IoT) devices gather and process data with the aid of artificial intelligence (AI).

d2iq.com

AI has been called “the most disruptive technology of the century,” and “the biggest commercial opportunity in today’s fast-changing economy. Indeed, McKinsey’s Tech Trends Outlook 2022 sizes the global AI opportunity at $10 trillion to $15 trillion.

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/the%20top%20trends%20in%20tech%202022/McKinsey-Tech-Trends-Outlook-2022-Applied-AI.pdf

Thats number 3 @Rocket577
Are you shooting from the penalty spot with Blind Freddy on the goal line?

 

[Deleted member 118]

Thats number 3 @Rocket577
Are you shooting from the penalty spot with Blind Freddy on the goal line?

Just bored lol

 

[jtardif999]

We are either in this or the claim to be 3 years ahead of competitors is questionable

I think at the last AGM the company made comment about the potential for exaggerated claims by BrainChips competitors. I know how sometimes those claims have been quite stressful to shareholders including myself and I think that since the explosion of ChatGTP companies in the AIOT space have been even more inclined to push this exaggeration. No one really knows if Qualcomm’s claims have Akida in their court but as @Diogenese has been at pains to reiterate the associated patents are pretty much based on an underlying Von Neumann architecture, so if they claim everything they claim without Akida then maybe their doing so with a touch of smoke and mirrors. Time will tell.

 

[IloveLamp]

Event cameras have their moment at MWC 2023: enabling a new era of photography in consumer devices | Imaging and Machine Vision Europe

Luca Verre, Co-founder and CEO of Prophesee, as well as a Photonics100 honoree, highlights how event-based vision is set to revolutionise mobile photography

www.imveurope.com

 

[equanimous]

Should Sean be spending more time communicating with shareholders ... or spending that time talking to partners and customers? I know where I want him spending his time. The one to talk with shareholders is the shareholder relations person, NOT Sean. Give the man a break and let him do the job which is MOST important for us. From everything I am seeing and hearing he is doing a great job despite limitations to what he can officially reveal. Keep it up Sean, and well done!
Deena

He is also is indirectly talking to us through his podcast interviews

 

[Glen]

Great article using Neuromorphic computing https://www.eetimes.com/prostheses-in-lab-sense-objects-allow-users-to-feel/

 

[TECH]

Let's just forget for a moment about Intel and IBM and their research projects, lets instead focus our attention on what we
all know as fact.

We are and have been working or advising NASA when approached with regards all things AKIDA.

We do have proven technology, performing better in silicon than was initially thought possible, we are involved with known
space projects.

We know that some of these projects are highly confidential, extremely sensitive on a US Federal level, as in, top secret with or
without any sauce.

The link below may well have already been posted, but it just doesn't matter...Novel ways of performing tasks in space is all
about "Beneficial AI" or "Essential AI" you choose.

NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING FOR SPACE – Air Force Research Laboratory

afresearchlab.com

P.S. About time Brisbane lifted their game last night, still about 6 players who are well below basic standard skill sets and decision-making
at this AFL level.

Regards....Tech (Perth)

 

[Deleted member 118]

Wow Tom Cruise

 

[MadMayHam | 合氣道]

Blessed Good Friday to all here, especially those who celebrate it, a good reminder for the basis of our beliefs. Enjoy your holiday I'm sure you all deserve the rest.

 

[Jamescan]

What a calculation and no one can make a fault out of that.
On the other hand everyone including me is so excited to see share price can bounce very quickly.
One thing I want to add is this price drop is mainly because of shorter's activity and if we keep our faith in the technology and keep holding the stock until positive news start flowing, I assume $3 is not that far either.
To me the main things to look out are
1.Technology is real and everyone start talking on same.
2. We have a growing list of partners are we are definitely passed that stage where everyone will ask had they heard about brainchip?
3. Qualcomm is promoting a similarly technology which means even if they are competitors( only if but most probably a friend) there is a market and we can sell our product quickly enough.
And next mile stones for me are
1. Getting break even ( expenses and income equal)
2. Announcement of licence agreement by one or two EAP partners.
3. Start of 1st royality income.
4. Company can start projecting forward looking statements.
5. One of major broker start coverage on brn.
So to me until those things are start getting covered we may keep on getting same fluctuations based on assumptions.
On top a nasdaq listing could be an icing on cake.

Hi,
over the years the "mainly because of shorter's activity" reason has been used many times. This seems to excuse and or ignore what is the real issue, IMO, which is no news, and a wider fall in sentiment of some tech plays.
Do you have the data to show that traders have been actively shorting BRN in the last 6 months? I'm not meaning to sound belligerent, just interested

 

[rgupta]

Hi,
over the years the "mainly because of shorter's activity" reason has been used many times. This seems to excuse and or ignore what is the real issue, IMO, which is no news, and a wider fall in sentiment of some tech plays.
Do you have the data to show that traders have been actively shorting BRN in the last 6 months? I'm not meaning to sound belligerent, just interested

Very easy check here

Short position reports table | ASIC

asic.gov.au

 

[equanimous]

Hi,
over the years the "mainly because of shorter's activity" reason has been used many times. This seems to excuse and or ignore what is the real issue, IMO, which is no news, and a wider fall in sentiment of some tech plays.
Do you have the data to show that traders have been actively shorting BRN in the last 6 months? I'm not meaning to sound belligerent, just interested