I think given the events of the last couple of days and associated sentiment change of people within the community here that it might be prudent to reassess the operating circumstances of the company and our current stake in it.
Currently, we all possess some level of investment in a company providing a cutting edge product that most technology companies are not actually placed to implement into existing products. This company currently has a market valuation of 350m.
If even one significant revenue generating deal were to be signed, the company would likely move from a loss creator to break even (or profitable). This would likely allow the company to move from strength to strength garnering a significant increase in the share price. In fact, many speculate that the company has the potential to become a several billion dollar company if such deals come to fruition.
Given the potential value of the company, If the process of securing such a deal was linear or assured, the market would have taken this into its consideration of BRNs value long ago. The fact it has not done so provides some insight into the complexity of the field in which BRN navigates, and reminds us retail investors that success will be hard fought and is evidently not a guarantee.
Many apportion this to the affect of manipulation or shorters, but I believe a more balanced take is that the market has priced in the complexity of procuring such a deal, and the risk of us not being able to.
Realistically, we hold a stake in a company that has the ability to 10/100x based on its current valuation. Instead of viewing the signing of large or significant deals that will have a transformative effect on the fortunes of the company as a guarantee, I think some are beginning to realise (and sophisticated investors which we love to lament have known all along) that this is not the case. In no other field of investment (or gambling) would punters enter into an arrangement expecting that a 10/100x shot was a surety.
Whilst I relate to the issues that many have with Sean and the current leadership team, I think that many have placed an unrealistic (admittedly one contributed to by leadership/BOD themselves) expectation on their shoulders. The task of procuring a long term revenue generating deal was always an enormous one. Deapite not meeting their initial expectations of revenue generating deals being signed within their initial tenure, I think many may need to take a step back and realise the enormity and complexity of their task.
As mentioned, institutions and SIs recognise this and have priced BRN appropriately. I for one am comfortable with risk I have taken on by purchasing a stake in the company given the fact it has the potential to significantly change my personal circumstances if it one day meets the potential value we all expect. However, given the circumstances I also recognise that this success is not guaranteed, and if it were I would not have had the opportunity to secure as large a stake as I have.
I will continue to follow BRN news from time to time and check in with its SP movements, but will be reframing my mindset to a more realistic one - the odds are stacked against the company in a relatively tough business environment - a deal in the short/medium term would represent a huge success - one that “bookmakers” have not taken into consideration in their current pricing evaluation - and would not simply be par for the course of normal expectation.
I know many have been invested for long periods and will view this differently, but I think given the circumstances and the markets valuation this outlook is probably quite realistic.
Unfortunately it has come to a point where we take every mistake in their releases as a given.
