With past week’s avalanche of good news and dot-joining having perceptibly brightened the forum mood despite the continuous downward spiralling of the BRN share price, my rambling musings below - that I started jotting down last weekend - may seem somewhat obsolete and not particularly relevant to those among you that see Brainchip as a no-brainer stock anyway, since I would be preaching to the converted. Nevertheless, I would still like to invite you all to come with me on an imaginary journey into a lush green bamboo grove. Please excuse the unintended novella length and of course feel free to skip my post altogether.
One of my favourite childhood books was Leo Lionni‘s charming classic “Frederick“. In case you’ve never heard of it or your memory needs some refreshing, here is a short summary of this 1967 timeless picture book:
“Frederick is the story of a daydreamy field mouse who spends his summer days very differently from his mouse family. As the other mice work busily night and day to gather nuts, wheat, and straw, Frederick instead gathers sun rays, colors, and words. Later, when all of the supplies have been exhausted, and “corn was only a memory,” the mice ask Frederick for his contribution to the group. “Close your eyes,” Frederick tells them, climbing atop a tall rock. And from his stone perch he envelops the other mice in lush words that bring the warmth of the sun’s golden glow, that paint within their gray minds the bright colors of blue periwinkles, golden wheat, and berry bushes.”
(Kirsten Hall, children’s book agent and author).
To be honest, I very much feel like empty-handed Frederick here in this forum, where the vast majority of posters are heaps tech-savvier than me, working busily night and day to gather and share info on this undervalued gem of a company, which by many is predicted to be at the forefront of the 4th Industrial Revolution and is currently in the process of making itself indispensable to its ever increasing circle of customers and partners, true to its ambition to make edge AI ubiquitous and Akida its standard.
Prior to registering with TSE a couple of weeks ago, I had actually been a silent reader of this forum since its inception aka The Great Migration, but never really felt I could contribute anything of substance (other than accumulating shares, that is). Well, I guess now that we are currently stuck in the bleak midwinter of BRN‘s stock price performance, it is time for some (alas not as masterful as Frederick’s, I am afraid) story-telling contribution from my side then, to lift weary spirits. Some of you still have plenty of energy to withstand the freezing temperatures of BRN’s and the general stock market’s seemingly endless winter; at the same time others feel dejected, are shivering and afraid of starving, and while I can‘t offer you any nourishing wheat grains or tasty nuts, I will try to conjure up an imagery that will hopefully let you forget about your growling stomachs for a while, make you feel warm and fuzzy inside and help you visualise the sumptuous feast we are all drooling over. (Wait - won’t that lead to even more borborygmi aka tummy rumbles?
Oh, I suppose it is a vicious circle indeed; metaphors can be tricky.) Winter shall pass. Hopefully very soon, we will smell that spring is in the air.
Other posters before me have already likened the growth of a successful company to the agricultural concepts of planting, tending to and harvesting, but with most plants/trees/crops you will be able to observe fast and continuous growth - within days, weeks or months. The path of evolution taken by disruptive tech companies, on the other hand, is slightly different. I was reminded of this when I recently happened to come across the following video called ‘The Miracle of the Chinese Bamboo’ - I, for my part, found it worthwhile watching and hope you will enjoy it, too:
The word ‘miracle’ here is actually somewhat misleading, though, as it only APPEARS to be a miracle in the eye of the beholder who is not familiar with this plant‘s alleged botanic anomaly: no visible growth above the surface for more than five years despite being watered and tended to daily, followed by sudden explosive growth, reaching a height of almost 30 m within six weeks. While bamboo is indeed known for being the world’s fastest-growing plant, with some species growing just shy of a meter a day or so, the tale‘s extraordinary bamboo species doesn‘t exist in real life to the best of my knowledge. But it still makes for a powerful inspirational story that motivational speakers like to use as a parable about personal growth and success in life, illustrating the importance of steady and diligent work, perseverance and patience, even if evidence of progress is not immediately visible. An almost dated concept in our age of instant gratification, it seems.
To me the parable also constitutes an apt metaphor for the share price development of a disruptive technology super crop like Brainchip, except that it is actually not us shareholders doing the daily watering of the ‘spots’ in this huge field planted with millions of Chinese Bamboo seeds (> BRN shares), but instead by investing, we conveniently delegate this tedious task to professional gardeners (> the hard working team at Brainchip).
Below the surface, the network of roots & rhizomes has been growing for years and continues to do so day by day, establishing a solid foundation for its ultimate height and weight (> future rapid growth), a strong support structure that will eventually enable the plant to withstand even harsh conditions, although there is nothing yet visible overground (> the current share price not at all reflecting the company‘s actual progress and paradigm-shifting potential due to various reasons, including revolutionary tech yet to be fully understood and adapted, long product development timelines, NDAs in place, massive global economic headwinds as a result of the pandemic and Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine to name but two major underlying causes, relentless shorting attacks, panic selling by short-sighted retail shareholders dissatisfied with the lumpy revenue so far and and lamenting the lack of further signed deals, not enough buying interest from prospective shareholders for the same reasons and on top of that genuine shareholders forced to sell because they need money in this difficult economic climate/for unplanned personal reasons, and yet again others selling in order to get back in at a lower price, which could possibly backfire should a sudden price-sensitive announcement see the share price soar...).
Unlike the farmer in the parable, though, we shareholders - and in fact non-shareholders alike - have the fantastic option of monitoring parts of the expanding underground root network by means of a subterranean camera (Akida Inside, of course! No blurry pictures here, but razorsharp images…) to help us observe what is going on in the soil (> thanks to company press releases, ASX anns, quarterlies/half yearly reports/AGMs, podcasts, testimonials from other companies, including validation from big industry players, hiring of high calibre staff, articles and online likes & comments from tech experts worldwide, exhibition demos and last but not least the wealth of info gathered and generously shared in this amazing forum, which is extremely helpful for tech-challenged shareholders like me who don‘t have a semiconductor industry background or similar). While not a crystal ball, this subterranean camera ought to serve as objective reassurance to us that our seed is viable and of excellent quality. An advantage the farmer in our story did not have - he had to simply believe in the viability of his seeds and in the meaningfulness of faithfully watering the soil daily without proof of growth for five long years, during which he had to overcome mockery by his fellow villagers (> WANCAs) as well as many moments of self-doubt.
So we as BRN shareholders today are in a much better and derisked position! There is nothing much we can do for the time being (IMO) other than trusting the Brainchip team to continue to do their job well, be excited about the ever expanding ecosystem, weather the bear market storm and persevere in the face of the tumbling BRN share price (as long as your personal situation doesn‘t force you to sell any shares right now, which would be unfortunate indeed) as well as seize the window of opportunity to top up at these bargain prices, if your funds and personal diversification risk profile allow it. And then one day, in the not too distant future (bar a catastrophic black swan or black elephant event happening), instead of overlooking barren, sun-torched ground (> the share price looking right now), we will be standing in a lush green forest of giant bamboo stalks, providing us shade. Except that our very own miracle bamboo won’t stop growing at a height of 90 feet (almost 28 m), but can actually keep growing and growing (> think science fiction, disruptive technology, years ahead of competition, secret sauce, ubiquitous, IP moat, competitors turning into partners, future Akida generations, stream of royalties - you name it…) And not only is it highly likely that our investment will one day bear abundant fruit financially, but - equally significant to me - the low-cost, energy-efficient and high-performance Akida processor family will also be immensely beneficial to mankind on its way towards a more sustainable and greener future. So what is not to like - except for the current share price, that is? Close your eyes, imagine those towering green bamboo stalks gently swaying in the wind and don‘t forget to breathe…. (They are firm yet flexible, by the way, and won’t break, but rather bend to ground level in a storm and straighten back up afterwards. This truly is a botanical fact about bamboo, and also that so-called running bamboo will become ubiquitous in your garden if you let it grow unchecked.)
I suppose the Doubting Thomases among us will remain unconvinced until the bamboo shoots finally brake the surface and start growing to a towering height (> the share price soaring on that often quoted hockey stick curve, once the financials will show a substantial increase in revenue). But maybe some of you, while understandably frustrated with the current share price at a 52 week low (which to others like me actually feels like a gift from heaven, while we are happily topping up and in my case averaging down), will find this inspirational story of the Chinese Bamboo somewhat helpful in visualising Brainchip‘s projected exponential share price growth curve, although in essence, all of this has been said many times before by other contributors to this forum. Yet, as an avid photographer I know that it is often worthwhile to view things from a slightly different perspective. And while there will always be share price fluctuation on a day-to-day basis, I am confident the long-term upward trend will soon become blazingly obvious when zooming out a little, looking at the big picture.
And to those of you who dismiss this parable as just another feel-good story: perhaps it will still resonate with you as a general reminder of the importance of a solid foundation, steady work and patience in life to reap future rewards, even if there is not always instant evidence that your efforts are having any effect. They may not pay off every time, but more often than not they do. Sadly, this equally holds true for prophets of doom and their constant downramping.
Keep in mind, though, that the darkest hour is always before dawn.
FF, I hope you don’t mind me stealing your signature sign-off for today:
My opinion only DYOR
Frangipani
P.S.: Serendipitously, I discovered that Leo Lionni also wrote a book for adults called ‘Parallel Botany’, “a field guide to imaginary plants, which Lionni presents with the authority of an academic writer - peppering his writing with references to real places and people, just to complicate things“ (Daisy Alioto: ‘Parallel Botany‘ in the Age of Alternative Facts). Now doesn‘t that sound he would have just loved the miraculous Chinese Bamboo?
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