FrederikSchack
Regular
Hi Fact Finder,I think as a non economist and a technophobe that the fear of ‘Recession’ has been elevated to a level similar to the fear of witches in the Dark Ages. It has become ridiculous.
We have had in Australia in the past forty years a number of ‘technical recessions’ and ordinary Australians only knew because the Government told us after it had happened.
I am not saying a recession is a good thing but in the press it has been elevated to the level of a “Depression” which is just wrong.
“Depression” v “Recession” simple definition:
“An economic depression is a period of sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. It is a more severe economic downturn than a recession, which is a slowdown in economic activity over the course of a normal business cycle.”
The Governor of the Australian Reserve Bank has stated more than once exactly what @dippY22 ‘s Mr. Gundlach has said - interest rates will start to be trend down next year.
Both the US and Australia have close to full employment so those in employment are likely to maintain that employment or find other employment until interest rates ease and probably if needed find a second or third job to carry them through.
When mortgage interest rates climbed to 17% here it was not easy but in our case I added working as a night stacker at Woolworths and Off siding on a Grace Bros furniture delivery truck to supplement my police wages to ride over the bump.
In a “Depression” there are no jobs and no solutions.
A long term retail investor has nothing to fear but overreacting to what is simply a slowdown in economic activity over the course of a normal business cycle.
My opinion only so DYOR
FF
AKIDA BALLISTA
The full employment in the US is contradictory to their other "employment" statistics about labour participation rate, that is the lowest since the start of the statistics in the start of the 80's. This means that we now have the lowest amount of people doing work as far back as recorded, so this should be sort of an indicator that we have to go deeper.
The new way of reporting unemployment since the start of the 90's is not really what most think it is, it´s designed to slope off because the time is a part of the criteria whether you are unemployed or not. So most media report the U3 number and you are not a part of U3 if you haven´t made an application in the last four weeks. Some report the U6 number that is currently 6,7%, but the U6 doesn´t count people who haven't applied for job for more than a year..
Further US employment statistics doesn´t say anything about people being part time employed or having a living wage. Being "employed" doesn´t mean that you can really get by. I think the average salary is high in the US, but about half can´t pay USD 500 to an unforeseen expense.
Also take a look at the top 10 or top 20 most indebted countries in the world (debt to GDP) and you´ll find that about half are "western" countries. This is going to be an issue when interest goes up and treasuries starts to roll over to the new higher interest rates.
We have the believers in MMT, that says that we can just print money forever and that´s probably true, especially in this digital age. They did it in the Weimar republic they did it in Zimbabwe and they did it in many other places, but it never went about in an orderly fashion. So, expect some volatility in the market.
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