AVZ Discussion 2022
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Frank
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Why did the stock market fall? Dow finishes nearly 1,000 points lower in worst day since October 2020
Stocks hammered as investors grapple with Fed rate path; health-care stocks slump after HCA earnings
U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday to suffer their biggest one-day drop since 2020, as investors continued to weigh hawkish comments on interest rates a day earlier by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as a fresh batch of corporate earnings that largely disappointed.What drove the market?
Stock-market weakness picked up Friday where Thursday’s selloff left off, when equities tumbled into the afternoon after Powell added his support for moving faster on raising interest rates to cool inflation, measures that would include a possible 50 basis point interest rate hike in May.“It would seem investors have been too complacent about the upcoming [Fed] meeting, which will need to change,” said Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital, in a note.
Stocks got clobbered Friday. Here’s why investors should focus on the long game
The stock market ended a volatile week on a gloomy note Friday, with the three major U.S. indexes plunging as investors got tripped up in worries like inflation, the Fed’s fight against it and fears of a hard-landing recession.As confidence got pummeled as well, financial experts recommended that investors not panic, but think about long-term strategies instead.
At a time like this, it’s definitely worth remembering the next chapter in that story, Bishop said. Ultimately, the people who experience the most financial pain are those that “take extreme action , binary action, I’m in or I’m out.”
Investors just pulled a massive $17.5 billion out of global equities.
They’re just getting started, says Bank of America.
Are the bears just getting started?
That’s a question posed by strategists at Bank of America, who noted Friday that investors pulled $17.5 billion out of global equities over the past week, making for the biggest weekly outflow so far this year.
They cautioned that those outflows could well deepen. Since Nov. 2021, Nasdaq peak inflows to stocks have occurred in 16 of 20 weeks, for a total of $229 billion, while private clients bought stocks 17 out of 20 weeks, pointed out Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett, who provided the below chart:
Investors also pulled $8.7 billion out of bonds and $55.4 billion from cash, pouring $900 million into gold.
That was before Friday’s stock-market rout, which saw the S&P 500 slump 2.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummet 981.36 points, or 2.8%.
The S&P 500 is down 10.4% year to date, while the Dow is off 7%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 17.9% so far in 2022, after a 2.5% Friday drop.
Breaking down some of the equity outflows, Bank of America strategists noted data showing Europe saw the 10th straight weekly outflow — $2.9 billion, while $1.6 billion exited financials, as money flowed back into buying the technology sector dip.
Materials, meanwhile, marked a record 8-weeks of inflows.
www.marketwatch.com
Some of the major divisions of the materials sector include:
- Chemicals stocks. ...
- Construction materials stocks. ...
- Paper and packaging stocks. ...
- Metals and minerals stocks.
Food for thought
Frank
Frank
Top 20
Banking companies agree to finance the installation of the pilot plant of the electric battery industry
The heads of various banks operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo reaffirmed Thursday, in Lubumbashi, in the province of Haut-Katanga, their commitment to finance the installation of the pilot plant of the electric battery industry, indicated Friday to the ACP the Ministry of Industry.
According to the source, this commitment was made during their discussions with the government delegation led by the Minister of Industry Julien Paluku Kahongya who is staying in Lubumbashi who also underlines that the discussions focused on the financial package to finance the installation of the electric battery industry pilot plant.
Julien Paluku urged financial partners to take investment risks in the DRC, to capture part of the money supply that circulates around the battery and electric vehicle industry. He specified that this monetary mass is estimated at 10 trillion US dollars, by 2025-2030.
“Tomorrow, between 2030 and 2040, the money supply that will circulate around the electric battery industry is at least 10 trillion US dollars. If we do not take the risk of throwing ourselves into the dance, we risk seeing the 10 trillion circulating outside our territory, ”said the Minister of Industry.
The financial partners have reaffirmed their commitment made within the framework of the materialization of the project for the manufacture of electric batteries and renewable energies.
“For now, it’s organizational support; the RawBank will participate financially in the installation of the battery factory in Congo to bring more to the trade sector and more to the population through the commitment of people, in order to reduce the unemployment rate in Congo in general,” said Arnaud Coupé, Regional Director of RawBank Grand Katanga.
For his part, the Managing Director of TMB, Yannick Mbiya added that by emphasizing transformation, the DRC will attract wealth.
The Ministers of Mines, Higher and University Education, Scientific Research as well as the Acting Director General of the Industry Promotion Fund who were also present, promised their support for this project.
These exchanges took place in the presence of foreign financiers and delegates from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
Frank
Top 20
‘Mr. Lithium’ warns there’s not enough battery metal to go around
Batteries, and more precisely battery metals, are poised to replace chips as the new bottleneck for the auto industry.
While there’s been a lot of attention on nickel, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, another key metal — lithium — is a source of concern for manufacturers dealing with all manner of supply chain challenges.
The cost of the metal — mainly used to produce lithium-ion batteries, but also for pharmaceuticals and industrial lubricants has been soaring.
An index of key prices more than doubled in the first quarter, after surging 280% last year, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.
That jump is worrying government officials in China, my colleague Annie Lee wrote earlier this month. Elon Musk, largely seen as ahead of the pack on scaling electric vehicle production, flagged the lithium shortage several times during Tesla’s earnings call this week.
“I’d certainly encourage entrepreneurs out there who are looking for opportunities to get into the lithium business,” Musk said Wednesday.
“We think we’re going to need to help the industry on this front.”
One person who’s been warning of a lithium shortage for a while is Joe Lowry, a somewhat cantankerous expert who regularly draws mining bigwigs and analysts to his podcast.
Known in mining circles as “Mr. Lithium,” the North Carolina resident has been in the business for decades.
Since striking out on his own in 2012, Lowry has been a consultant to mining companies and an investor. He owns shares of companies including Tesla and Lithium Americas.
I’ve been talking with Lowry to wrap my head around the EV battery supply chain and have summarized our conversation in Q&A form.
Here’s an excerpt, edited for length and clarity.
You wrote a paper at the end of 2019 saying demand for lithium would outstrip supply. It looks like lithium prices have started to reflect that. What do you see?
In the next two years, even though there will be significant growth in supply, it will be less than demand, so the gap will just continue to grow.
It’s simple math. It’s like, the bus in front of me is going 50 miles per hour, I’m going 45 mph, but I’m saying I’m gonna catch it in 2025.
I believe there will be a day in the future when lithium is in oversupply, but it won’t be in this decade.
Why will it take so long?
You can build a battery factory in two years, but it takes up to a decade to bring on a lithium project.
It’s not a commodity; it’s a specialty chemical. Lithium is often compared with iron ore or other major commodities, and it behaves nothing like that.
The auto industry is just finally figuring that out. Lithium qualification for an auto company can take over a year.
Why?
It has to go through cycle testing. If you’re going to put something into a car that could ignite if the chemistry is wrong, you kind of want to know.
Is the auto industry prepared for that long lead time?
I take everybody’s gigawatt-hour projections and take them back to the lithium required to do it, and most of them are so far over what the lithium industry can supply. I don’t believe demand is going to be destroyed. Ultimately, I believe it’s just deferred.
The additional production this year will be less than 150,000 tons. So then, it’s who gets the material? Whose EV models don’t get made?
In a 2050 scenario, there’s time for everything to happen that needs to happen.
But in 2030, it just isn’t going to happen. Just look at the mess we’re in from a lithium supply standpoint with less than 10% EV penetration.
Lowry’s predictions chime with others assessments. BloombergNEF forecasts prices of lithium carbonate and hydroxide — the main lithium chemicals used in battery production — will be higher still by 2030 as a result of projected supply deficits.
www.mining.com/category/battery-metals/
Musk’s tweets fuel mining industry’s hopes of a buyout by Tesla
Elon Musk’s recent musings that high lithium prices may force Tesla to make its own supply of the electric vehicle battery metal have fueled hopes by some that the billionaire entrepreneur will instead opt for a buyout of an established mining company.
The auto giant already has supply contracts for nickel, lithium and a range of other EV metals from suppliers across the globe.
But it needs more, and industry analysts say Tesla may soon realize that building a mine or processing facility from scratch is not as easy as it sounds and the automaker should instead consider a buyout.
“Price of lithium has gone to insane levels! Tesla might actually have to get into the mining & refining directly at scale unless costs improve,” the Tesla CEO tweeted earlier this month.
Lithium prices are up more than 80% this year and nickel prices have gyrated heavily amid trading turmoil in London.
The billionaire entrepreneur had already complained about “significant” jumps in raw materials costs for Tesla, which has raised prices of its vehicles twice this year.
“Should management be serious about entering the lithium space, we think the most likely route would be an acquisition of an existing lithium company,” said Morningstar lithium analyst Seth Goldstein.
Shares of junior miner Lithium Corp. jumped more than 30% on April 13 after unsubstantiated reports that it and its Nevada brine deposits had been sold to Tesla, a rumor the company denied. Shares of larger lithium producers, such as Albemarle, reacted little to Musk’s tweets.
“Elon, if you want to talk to us, come and say hello,” said Tom Lewis, Lithium’s CEO, who said the buyout rumors likely were an “orchestrated plan to pump (our shares) up a bit.”
Amid the minerals talk, Musk last week made a $43-billion cash offer to buy social networking platform Twitter.
“If you’re going to spend $43-billion and you run Tesla and you understand better than anyone Tesla’s future lithium needs, you might want to spend a lot less and buy a lithium company or two,” said lithium industry consultant Joe Lowry.
‘A huge disconnect’
Tesla has never operated a mine, but it is building a lithium processing plant in Texas and may need to build a nickel refinery.“There’s a huge disconnect in this country about metals refining,” said Corby Anderson, who teaches metallurgy at the Colorado School of Mines.
“And yet the public expects the materials to be available to do the things they want.”
US President Joe Biden said this month he would use a Cold War-era piece of legislation to boost government funding for metals processing, though not for new mines.
In January, Tesla said it will buy 75,000 tonnes of nickel concentrate from Talon Metals Corp’s proposed Tamarack mine project in Minnesota, starting in 2026.
Musk asked the mining industry in 2020 to produce more nickel “in an environmentally sensitive way,” and Talon has said it has plans to honor that request.
But it is not clear what Tesla will do with that nickel concentrate, which needs to be smelted into a product known as matte and further refined before it can be used to build battery parts.
The United States does not have any facilities to do that processing, with the exception of a small salt byproduct facility.
Canada has a handful of nickel smelters and refineries, though it mines more than those facilities can handle and relies on refineries in Norway and the United Kingdom.
That means Tesla would either have to build its own facilities to process nickel, or rely on overseas companies, thus boosting the nickel’s carbon footprint.
Musk has hinted the company may have a new method to turn nickel into the material needed for battery cathodes, but has not provided details. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.
The automaker also recently struck a deal with Brazilian mining company Vale to supply nickel, according to media reports.
Lithium
For lithium, Tesla is building a plant in Texas that will convert spodumene concentrate – processed rock containing the metal – into lithium hydroxide, a key building block for EV batteries.The automaker applied for Texas permits for its facility last year, according to state records, though it is unclear when that facility will open.
A lithium supply deal with Piedmont Lithium was put on hold last year. Tesla also has lithium supply deals with Liontown Resources, Ganfeng Lithium and Core Lithium.
Musk’s tweets, analysts said, are likely born from a desire to push down spot lithium prices. Most lithium producers, though, prefer to sell the metal on long-term contracts with fixed prices that help them plan for future demand.
Livent and Albemarle, which are also Tesla suppliers, have said they will not build more processing plants if automakers fail to sign long-term deals.
www.mining.com/category/battery-metals/
Musk wants more lithium for EVs but very few places have it
Elon Musk wants more lithium, but only a handful of countries can supply the material key to the electrification of transportation, at least for now.
Food for thought
Frank
Frank
Top 20
*To Remind, Re:- The Mininister of Mines,
Financing of Electric Battery Project -DRC
Antoinette N’SAMBA KALAMBAYI is expected today Wednesday in Haut Katanga.
The Head of State will launch the Center of Excellence specialized in training and research in battery chemistry and technology.
Indeed, the Democratic Republic of Congo aims to become a world leader in the production of electric car batteries, this is what emerged from the statement made by Congolese officials at the opening of the “DRC AFRICA BUSINESS FORUM ” forum organized last year in Kinshasa.
The Congolese authorities have, on occasion, highlighted the large deposits of lithium and cobalt that abound in the country in its south-eastern façade, in Katanga.
The DRC has 400 million tonnes of lithium and 25 million tonnes of cobalt on its reserves.
To make this project a reality, the Minister of Mines Antoinette N’samba Kalambayi will carry out an official mission from 20 to 25 April 2022 in Lubumbashi.
During her stay, the head of Mines will take part in the launch of the Center of Excellence specialized in training and research in battery chemistry and technology but also in the formalization of discussions with technical and financial partners for the financing of the electric battery project in the DRC.
Washington: Nicolas Kazadi and Aimé Boji looking for American investors
Finance Minister Nicolas Kazadi and his budget colleague, Aimé Boji Sangara are continuing their stay in Washington (USA).
On site, on Thursday April 21, 2022, they met with the heads of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), EximBank USA, and CITIBANK with a single objective of boosting and accelerating investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
In response, the Vice-President of the IFC expressed the will of her institution to support the country of President Félix-Antoine Tshisekedi Tshilombo through several investment projects, such as leasing, digitalization and energy.
The president and chair of board of directors of Eximbank USA also welcomed recent positive developments in the DRC and expressed her commitment to increase funding, in order to support American companies as well as to strengthen trade between the DRC and the United States.
*To Remind,
Banking companies agree to finance the installation of the pilot plant of the electric battery industry
The heads of various banks operating in the Democratic Republic of Congo reaffirmed Thursday, in Lubumbashi, in the province of Haut-Katanga, their commitment to finance the installation of the pilot plant of the electric battery industry, indicated Friday to the ACP the Ministry of Industry.
According to the source, this commitment was made during their discussions with the government delegation led by the Minister of Industry Julien Paluku Kahongya who is staying in Lubumbashi who also underlines that the discussions focused on the financial package to finance the installation of the electric battery industry pilot plant.
Julien Paluku urged financial partners to take investment risks in the DRC, to capture part of the money supply that circulates around the battery and electric vehicle industry.
The financial partners have reaffirmed their commitment made within the framework of the materialization of the project for the manufacture of electric batteries and renewable energies.“For now, it’s organizational support; the RawBank will participate financially in the installation of the battery factory in Congo to bring more to the trade sector and more to the population through the commitment of people, in order to reduce the unemployment rate in Congo in general,” said Arnaud Coupé, Regional Director of RawBank Grand Katanga.
For his part, the Managing Director of TMB, Yannick Mbiya added that by emphasizing transformation, the DRC will attract wealth.
The Ministers of Mines, Higher and University Education, Scientific Research as well as the Acting Director General of the Industry Promotion Fund who were also present, promised their support for this project.
These exchanges took place in the presence of foreign financiers and delegates from the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).
Minister of Mines Antoinette N’samba Kalambayi will carry out an official mission from 20 to 25 April 2022 in Lubumbashi.
So i guess as soon as Antoinette gets back to the office tomorrow, that's when the Rubber (Stamp / Ink ) hits the Road to Manono with a ML for AVZ after a short TH on Tuesday
Food for thought
Frank
JAG
Top 20
LITHIUM ION BATTERY PIPELINE BREAKS THE 6 TWH CAPACITY BARRIER
22nd April 2022 BatteriesGlobal lithium ion production capacity could reach over 6,000GWh (6TWh) by the end of the decade, based on current plans, as companies accelerate gigafactory construction in Europe and the US.
Total lithium ion capacity existing or being built has doubled since the beginning of 2021 following announcements of new plants by Chinese and South Korean battery producers, according to Benchmark’s Gigafactory Assessment.
The numbers highlight the increasingly global spread of battery gigafactories, as automakers look to secure local supply chains to lower costs and reduce the risk of trade disruption. While China still dominates global battery production, announcements for North American and European battery cell plants are accelerating.
LG Energy Solutions said it would invest KRW 1.7tn ($1.4bn) to build a 11 GWh cell plant in Arizona while Mercedes-Benz announced a battery partnership project with Envision AESC, with plans for a 30 GWh plant to be located in Kentucky, US.
In March China’s EVE Energy announced plans to set up its first European battery plant with an estimated capacity of 30 GWh in Debrecen, Hungary.
North America’s share of the global battery capacity is set to grow to 10% by 2026 from 6% currently, according to Benchmark, while Europe’s is set to grow to 12% from 7%.
BATTERY ACCELERATION
Overall, planned gigafactory capacity rose in April by 73% from a year earlier, according to Benchmark. At the current rate of growth capacity is set to exceed 10 TWh in less than a year.The numbers include around 1 TWh of existing battery capacity as of the end of 2021.
At 6 TWh of capacity the world could produce around 109 million EVs, although this is based on all the plants coming into production and operating at full capacity.
In reality it’s likely that around 70% of the gigafactories in pipeline will come into production with an average global capacity utilisation of 70%, according to Simon Moores, chief executive of Benchmark.
Tesla’s chief executive Elon Musk said this week that a total of 300 TWh is needed to transition the world to sustainable energy via batteries for heating and transport.
NOT ALL BATTERIES ARE EQUAL
Not all battery capacity equals reliable, quality battery supply needed for world class EVs, however, according to Moores.Of the 6 TWh of planned and existing battery capacity, around 26% is from Tier 1 battery producers, according to Benchmark. Tier 1 is defined as a battery manufacturer that is qualified to supply more than one multinational automaker outside of China.
It includes China’s CATL, Panasonic, BYD, Envision AESC, LG Energy Solution, SK Innovation, and Samsung SDI.
LEADING THE PACK
The Tier 1 producers led the majority of announcements of new cell capacity in March and April, according to Benchmark.LG’s latest announcement, along with previously released plans, will make LGES a key supplier in North America with 201 GWh in American pipeline capacity by 2031, according to the Benchmark Gigafactory Assessment.
In China, electric vehicle maker BYD confirmed two new cell production bases in Taizhou, Zhejiang province, and Nanning, Guangxi province with combined capacity of 67 GWh.
RAW MATERIALS LAG
Battery capacity is currently growing at twice the speed of lithium raw material supply, however.A total of 6 TWh of annual battery production would require around 5 million tonnes of lithium, according to Benchmark. Production of lithium last year was around 480,000 tonnes of LCE.
Meeting the 2030 growth targets for electric vehicles will require the lithium industry to step up production, Tesla’s senior vice president for Powertrain and Energy Engineering, Drew Baglino, said this week.
“We need everybody to do more in the lithium space than they currently are,” he said.
JAG
Top 20
Thanks mate, yep was sensational to get away from the dark web for a while.....really refreshing. I actually got some work done
Bring on Tuesday I say! The world is in our hands
JAG
Top 20
Xerof
Flaming 1967
Please all, zipped lips on that info
@Misfits I'm also in the NKP dissenting shareholder group - I thought I remembered you from those threads. You may have noticed my recent concern and dislike of any possible connection to Zijin. You of all people here will understand why - lol - I'm sincerely hoping Der Geist has it wrong with his theories
Misfits
Regular
Yes, the dissenting group for NKWE. What a trip. I have a substantial holding and I am comfortable with our leader and the potential outcome. Been several years in the making but hoping this year is closure.
Please all, zipped lips on that info
@Misfits I'm also in the NKP dissenting shareholder group - I thought I remembered you from those threads. You may have noticed my recent concern and dislike of any possible connection to Zijin. You of all people here will understand why - lol - I'm sincerely hoping Der Geist has it wrong with his theories
This great stock of AVZ can be anything. Hoping to approach the $1.80 area +, come the ML and BFS.
I hope AVZ provides the goods dude, Eagles certainly arnt.....Looks Like Tuesday is a big day people!!! Finally,
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