Hodlandwin69
Regular
Kobold also sending some people to DRC mining week in Lubumbashi June 13-15, so maybe sorted before then so they can talk about Manono
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
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lellep
Regular
If you have a private message group, please use Signal or another encrypted chat service. Signal is free, easy to use like messanger and it works all around the world with full user-user encryption. Most western militaries use it aswel for cellular communication.
Argh it's such a shame hearing the valuable posters are leaving :/ I can just speek for myself, who, at least, scrolled over each of the last 3000 Page here or before many more on the crapper starting 6 years ago, never really contributed to the collective intel, but found assylum here with my stuck all-in investment. I believe there are so much more silent readers here who incredibly appretiate the awesome work that was collected here. And who found hope and a home with all their struggles. Yes, it somehow looks like as if the saga comes to an end. Nevertheless, it might be the most deciding time and I hope you might change your mind and come back here at some point in time.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
Key word is perhaps
$6.2b USD is how much AVZ is claiming at the ICSID for the destruction in value for its 75% holding in Dathcom
KoBold have a valuation of $3b USD and far less than that in the bank. So they will either need to raise or borrow to pay anything near actual appropriate compensation.
I don’t think we will get the full $6.2b USD but according to DLA Piper and me both working it out separately that is exactly how much our share of the project is worth
Kobold val at $3b USD gives us approx $1.30 . So from there wouldn't take much to push it above ATH and clear us of any legal BS aftermath . Maybe some truth to this $1.50ish that's floating around ?
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KentCStrait
Regular
Let’s be clear — USD $6.2 billion isn’t some aspirational number. It’s AVZ’s formal ICSID claim, backed by DLA Piper — one of the world’s top legal firms — and reflects the fair market value of AVZ’s 75% stake in one of the largest undeveloped lithium projects on the planet. That’s the floor, not the ceiling.
KoBold’s $3B valuation is irrelevant. If they want Roche Dure, they’ll need to raise or borrow. The project’s value isn’t limited by what’s in KoBold’s bank account. And with US strategic backing and security guarantees now in place, the old sovereign risk discount no longer applies — if anything, DLA’s valuation is conservative.
Let’s not forget — shareholders have had their capital locked up and the company delisted, all under the premise of protecting shareholder value. We’ve been told time and time again that AVZ expects to win at ICSID and ICC. For management to now turn around and accept a lowball offer would be a complete betrayal of everything we’ve been led to believe.
It’s also clear that those pushing for a quick, cheap exit are mostly early holders. But many retail investors came in later, off the back of AVZ’s own guidance and public assurances. They stand to lose the most if this is wrapped up below fair value — and they won’t just cop it quietly.
There are also serious tax implications to consider. Depending on how any payout is structured — whether it’s a dividend, a buyback, or a liquidation — late-in investors could lose even more if it denies them access to the CGT discount. If the structure isn’t handled correctly, the ATO will take a much bigger bite — and that alone could trigger legal action.
A deal at $6B+ brings this to a clean close — and even at that level, KoBold is walking away with the deal of the century. With the scale of the resource and the long-term upside, they’ll still make more money than God.
KoBold’s $3B valuation is irrelevant. If they want Roche Dure, they’ll need to raise or borrow. The project’s value isn’t limited by what’s in KoBold’s bank account. And with US strategic backing and security guarantees now in place, the old sovereign risk discount no longer applies — if anything, DLA’s valuation is conservative.
Let’s not forget — shareholders have had their capital locked up and the company delisted, all under the premise of protecting shareholder value. We’ve been told time and time again that AVZ expects to win at ICSID and ICC. For management to now turn around and accept a lowball offer would be a complete betrayal of everything we’ve been led to believe.
It’s also clear that those pushing for a quick, cheap exit are mostly early holders. But many retail investors came in later, off the back of AVZ’s own guidance and public assurances. They stand to lose the most if this is wrapped up below fair value — and they won’t just cop it quietly.
There are also serious tax implications to consider. Depending on how any payout is structured — whether it’s a dividend, a buyback, or a liquidation — late-in investors could lose even more if it denies them access to the CGT discount. If the structure isn’t handled correctly, the ATO will take a much bigger bite — and that alone could trigger legal action.
A deal at $6B+ brings this to a clean close — and even at that level, KoBold is walking away with the deal of the century. With the scale of the resource and the long-term upside, they’ll still make more money than God.
Skar
Regular
I am starting to get confused by all the numbers. Is the 6.2B for the loss of value 75% of north/south (the original project)?
I still can't reconcile how Cominiere can break off the north and form a separate JV with Zijin AND still maintain a 25% stake in the south... which would mean AVZ have 100% of south and 0% of north and from my reckoning is the only real basis of why AVZ would entertain China keeping north and AVZ keeping south (and selling to US).
I am guessing thats part of the framework that will need to be agreed to by DRC.
I still can't reconcile how Cominiere can break off the north and form a separate JV with Zijin AND still maintain a 25% stake in the south... which would mean AVZ have 100% of south and 0% of north and from my reckoning is the only real basis of why AVZ would entertain China keeping north and AVZ keeping south (and selling to US).
I am guessing thats part of the framework that will need to be agreed to by DRC.
Slipperysucker
Regular
All we can do is wait and see what AVZ announces.
The rest is just noise. Good luck to all LTH, not long now in the grand scheme of things.
The rest is just noise. Good luck to all LTH, not long now in the grand scheme of things.
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
This was my thinking too Skar
I couldn't see why a valuation would be based on 75% of the old totality of PR13359 when it "appears" Zijin is going to get the north in the carve up and negotiations
Agreed too that Cominiere shouldn't have 25% of the south (and it appears Kobold have given them a big fuck you as part of the deal anyway)
I do however wonder about the 10% that had to be ceded to the DRC Govt and whether that might still be in play????
Not sure????
So are we looking at 90% of the south for the $ mark on a valuation????
Whatever it is I hope it ends up truly being "fair" compensation for AVZ and all shareholders
And Celestine Kibeya , in fear of sh1tting himself , can now remove his nappies .
Winenut
GO AVZ!!!!
Looks like someone forgot to moderate your post today. Must be on a RDO?
We wait and see my friend
We wait and see........
The temp was just a bit slow, having a ciggieLooks like someone forgot to moderate your post today. Must be on a RDO?
Samus
Top 20
Nope, here's one from earlier:
Hey @Spikerama I wanted to reply to your post from yesterday during the window when the bad actors aren't wreaking havoc here. But I see that it's also gone.
I'll repeat again for your benefit and the benifit of others that this issue actually started with regular thoughtful everyday posts from multiple users being deleted in the dozens going back for multiple days of pages in the main forum.
Doesn't matter if you have them on ignore, doesn't matter if your posts are constructive - gone.
Then when people realise what has happened, who is doing it and call them out any retaliatory posts are selectively used as ammunition against those users as all of their other posts are deleted moving forward unless the pricks see some benefit in leaving it up for a bit.
The nefarious actor is boasting and spreading the word of the disruptions they've caused here across social media platforms for all of the known trolls and detractors to see. Not a healthy recipe for TSE moving forward given the apparent lack of any real administration by @zeeb0t
Myself along with others have been driven off the main forum and cancelled our memberships but still remain active and chatting via private messaging if any known long time member wants to know more about what's going on or to have a chat.
I'll try to refraim from bothering to post here, it's just too much of a headache to be bothered with. Like most I'm only here out of necessity anyway to remain in touch and discussion with fellow shareholders.
Thanks people for the excellent information, will still be reading and giving the thumbs up if it isn't deleted. Hopefully we're at the end awaiting our payout and can leave this shit hole for good anyway.
Hey @Spikerama I wanted to reply to your post from yesterday during the window when the bad actors aren't wreaking havoc here. But I see that it's also gone.
I'll repeat again for your benefit and the benifit of others that this issue actually started with regular thoughtful everyday posts from multiple users being deleted in the dozens going back for multiple days of pages in the main forum.
Doesn't matter if you have them on ignore, doesn't matter if your posts are constructive - gone.
Then when people realise what has happened, who is doing it and call them out any retaliatory posts are selectively used as ammunition against those users as all of their other posts are deleted moving forward unless the pricks see some benefit in leaving it up for a bit.
The nefarious actor is boasting and spreading the word of the disruptions they've caused here across social media platforms for all of the known trolls and detractors to see. Not a healthy recipe for TSE moving forward given the apparent lack of any real administration by @zeeb0t
Myself along with others have been driven off the main forum and cancelled our memberships but still remain active and chatting via private messaging if any known long time member wants to know more about what's going on or to have a chat.
I'll try to refraim from bothering to post here, it's just too much of a headache to be bothered with. Like most I'm only here out of necessity anyway to remain in touch and discussion with fellow shareholders.
Thanks people for the excellent information, will still be reading and giving the thumbs up if it isn't deleted. Hopefully we're at the end awaiting our payout and can leave this shit hole for good anyway.
PutUsernameHere
Regular
I see it as between ISCID & ICC disputes we are seeking return of ownership over the whole lot, for the 75% + option to purchase the additional 10% that we should've had in the first place. $6.2B+ is for a buyout of the entire thing from Kobold. If they then want to cede the north, give 10% of the south to DRC, and whatever tf else they want to do, that's on them. But we're going through the courts to go back to where we should have been prior to suspension, before the tenement was illegally split.
We need to be paid and compensated for the whole thing, and that's what we should be seeking fair value for. Whoever takes over after that can do whatever tf they want, but "fair compensation" needs to be for the whole thing.
Good post by Winenut:
This was my thinking too Skar
I couldn't see why a valuation would be based on 75% of the old totality of PR13359 when it "appears" Zijin is going to get the north in the carve up and negotiations
Agreed too that Cominiere shouldn't have 25% of the south (and it appears Kobold have given them a big fuck you as part of the deal anyway)
I do however wonder about the 10% that had to be ceded to the DRC Govt and whether that might still be in play????
Not sure????
So are we looking at 90% of the south for the $ mark on a valuation????
Whatever it is I hope it ends up truly being "fair" compensation for AVZ and all shareholders
This was my thinking too Skar
I couldn't see why a valuation would be based on 75% of the old totality of PR13359 when it "appears" Zijin is going to get the north in the carve up and negotiations
Agreed too that Cominiere shouldn't have 25% of the south (and it appears Kobold have given them a big fuck you as part of the deal anyway)
I do however wonder about the 10% that had to be ceded to the DRC Govt and whether that might still be in play????
Not sure????
So are we looking at 90% of the south for the $ mark on a valuation????
Whatever it is I hope it ends up truly being "fair" compensation for AVZ and all shareholders
Slipperysucker
Regular
Agreed
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