AVZ Discussion 2022

[Bin59]

Hello all, I took notes during the entire conferance and used good old reliable Grok to summarize what i wrote, enjoy!

The recent conference on the USA-DRC minerals deal, attended by ~200 participants (including Ben Cohen) with French interpreters, outlined the structure and goals of the deal, set for finalization by June 2025. The focus was on securing U.S. investment in critical minerals (Lithium, coltan, tin, tungsten), fostering peace in eastern DRC, and ensuring benefits for the DRC population through a transparent, corruption-free partnership.

Key speakers included Dr. Karl von Batten (White House spokesperson) and Jennifer Fendrick (KoBold Metals’ Chief Commercial Officer).
Key Takeaways:

White House Strategy (Dr. Karl von Batten):

• The Trump administration prioritizes peace in the DRC as a prerequisite for the minerals deal, emphasizing four conditions: political stability, infrastructure, security, and legal frameworks. The peace deal is separate but must be completed first. No U.S. troops will be deployed in eastern DRC, though private security contracts and advisory/training support are options. Congress is cautious, fearing another Iraq/Afghanistan scenario. Hard sanctions against Rwanda were cited as a commitment to peace. The DRC is positioned as a model for future U.S.-Africa investments, with a focus on refining minerals locally for sale to the U.S. and avoiding corruption. (

KoBold Metals’ Plans (Jennifer Fendrick):
KoBold aims to quote- “enter the DRC in a big way,” leveraging her prior U.S. State Department experience with the DRC. She highlighted KoBold’s Zambia copper project (90% local staff) as a model for community investment and confirmed KoBold will send a team to DRC Mining Week, held in the DRC. Fendrick also noted a potential KoBold IPO in a few years, with shares issued to employees and a possible DRC listing.

Aaron Poynton’s Role: Recognized as a key lobbyist driving the deal:

• U.S. Investment Mechanism (XM Bank Fund): The “XM Bank Fund” will enable U.S. banks to finance companies like KoBold for mining, refining, and infrastructure (e.g., local roads) in the DRC. This fund could also facilitate major transactions, such as a potential takeover of AVZ’s Manono Lithium and Tin Project by a U.S.-backed entity, providing capital for acquisition, development, or infrastructure to support Manono’s operations. (Note: “XM” may refer to the U.S. Export-Import Bank or a similar entity, pending clarification.)

Q&A Highlights:

• Chinese Contracts: The U.S. will focus on new projects, not displacing existing Chinese operations.
• Corruption Concerns: The White House acknowledged corruption risks and emphasized transparency.
• Kabila’s Presence in Eastern DRC: The U.S. is monitoring former President Kabila’s activities, with von Batten pushing for congressional intervention next week to prevent escalation.
• Next Steps: A follow-up meeting with DRC President Tshisekedi is planned, with another conference to be announced soon.

AVZ Minerals Implications: The USA-DRC deal could significantly benefit AVZ’s Manono Lithium and Tin Project by improving regulatory clarity, infrastructure, and regional stability through the peace process. The XM Bank Fund could provide financing for Manono’s development, enhancing its operational and refining capabilities. However, it also raises the possibility of a U.S.-backed takeover of Manono, funded by the XM Bank Fund, which could impact AVZ’s control or valuation. KoBold’s aggressive DRC entry, including its participation in DRC Mining Week, may increase competition for tin and other minerals. Investors should monitor peace negotiations, sanctions on Rwanda, Kabila’s influence, and the XM Bank Fund’s rollout for potential funding or acquisition risks.

Notes for AVZ Investors: The deal signals strong U.S. commitment to the DRC’s mineral sector, potentially boosting AVZ’s market position through improved stability and funding access. However, a possible Manono takeover funded by the XM Bank Fund or KoBold’s expansion could introduce uncertainties. Stay updated on Tshisekedi’s talks, DRC Mining Week outcomes, and fund details for clarity on AVZ’s opportunities and risks.

Thanks for taking the time to write up and share your detailed notes with us lellep

Re the Next Steps: A follow-up meeting with DRC President Tshisekedi is planned, with another conference to be announced soon could this be the conference in July - the date yet TBA below:

US-DRC Mineral Partnership Information Session, Washington, D.C. | VON BATTEN-MONTAGUE-

In-Person Conference to be Held in Washington, D.C

www.montagueyork.com

 

[Jongo]

I asked Copilot what it knows about the 28-May conference, particularly wrt AVZ, but it did not report on any new news. However, it did refer to this old article from 15-Mar-2025, which does include several interesting statements, a selection of which are repeated below.

"The United States is preparing to intervene in the ongoing dispute over the Manono lithium project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The Australian reported that Washington aims to back Australian company AVZ Minerals in its legal battle to reclaim the lithium asset."

"The US government aims to ensure the southern section of the Manono project is returned to AVZ. In exchange, AVZ is expected to sell the asset to a US entity."

"US officials reportedly plan to allow Zijin to retain control over the northern section of Manono to avoid direct conflict with China."

US Backs AVZ in Congo Lithium Dispute Against China

AVZ wins a legal battle over Congo’s Manono lithium mine as the US moves to counter China’s influence in critical minerals.

colitco.com

 

[Jongo]

There was another interesting comment by the host at the end regarding the financing available to USA companies requires partnership with DRC companies

Perhaps KoBold are looking at loaning all or part of $6.2b USD for the acquisition on top of investing their own $1b for development

The KoBold lady had to get on a plane half way through the call which was annoying but while there she defo spoke like the deal was done imo

Carlos, do you have an information source for the $6.2 billion loan that you have mentioned?

I searched for this, but could not find it.

 

[Skar]

A focus on refining minerals locally for sale to the U.S. and avoiding corruption

OH WOW, thats huge... feasibility wise, shipping >90% of dirt/waste internationally for processing never made sense unless you are China. So they will implement AVZ plans from 5 years ago, process to primary lithium sulphate load it on trains and ship it out?

This fund could also facilitate major transactions, such as a potential takeover of AVZ’s Manono Lithium and Tin Project by a U.S.-backed entity, providing capital for acquisition, development, or infrastructure to support Manono’s operations. (Note: “XM” may refer to the U.S. Export-Import Bank or a similar entity, pending clarification.)

Come on capitalism, highest bidder/best offer for shareholders who fronted the capital and took all the risk getting us here. Anyone for a 'USA' chant?

"The US government aims to ensure the southern section of the Manono project is returned to AVZ. In exchange, AVZ is expected to sell the asset to a US entity."

This has been the TLDR of the whole process since news broke... the question still remains on the sale price. AVZ being being waved around as the test case for investment bodes well.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

One of the speakers said we might get the first part or chunk of the USA-DRC commerical agreement as soon as next week.

Other notes, commerical agreement and peace agreement are seperate things.

The rest was covered by Carlos.

I also fell asleep halfway through

 

[Samus]

Hey @Spikerama I wanted to reply to your post from yesterday during the window when the bad actors aren't wreaking havoc here. But I see that it's also gone.

I'll repeat again for your benefit and the benifit of others that this issue actually started with regular thoughtful everyday posts from multiple users being deleted in the dozens going back for multiple days of pages in the main forum.
Doesn't matter if you have them on ignore, doesn't matter if your posts are constructive - gone.

Then when people realise what has happened, who is doing it and call them out any retaliatory posts are selectively used as ammunition against those users as all of their other posts are deleted moving forward unless the pricks see some benefit in leaving it up for a bit.

The nefarious actor is boasting and spreading the word of the disruptions they've caused here across social media platforms for all of the known trolls and detractors to see. Not a healthy recipe for TSE moving forward given the apparent lack of any real administration by @zeeb0t

Myself along with others have been driven off the main forum and cancelled our memberships but still remain active and chatting via private messaging if any known long time member wants to know more about what's going on or to have a chat.

I'll try to refraim from bothering to post here, it's just too much of a headache to be bothered with. Like most I'm only here out of necessity anyway to remain in touch and discussion with fellow shareholders.

Thanks people for the excellent information, will still be reading and giving the thumbs up if it isn't deleted. Hopefully we're at the end awaiting our payout and can leave this shit hole for good anyway.

 

[Tinrattler]

No welcome to country ceremonies pls, think most of us were born here

Feck off back to China no welcome there cunz

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Kobold also sending some people to DRC mining week in Lubumbashi June 13-15, so maybe sorted before then so they can talk about Manono

 

[lellep]

Hey @Spikerama I wanted to reply to your post from yesterday during the window when the bad actors aren't wreaking havoc here. But I see that it's also gone.

I'll repeat again for your benefit and the benifit of others that this issue actually started with regular thoughtful everyday posts from multiple users being deleted in the dozens going back for multiple days of pages in the main forum.
Doesn't matter if you have them on ignore, doesn't matter if your posts are constructive - gone.

Then when people realise what has happened, who is doing it and call them out any retaliatory posts are selectively used as ammunition against those users as all of their other posts are deleted moving forward unless the pricks see some benefit in leaving it up for a bit.

The nefarious actor is boasting and spreading the word of the disruptions they've caused here across social media platforms for all of the known trolls and detractors to see. Not a healthy recipe for TSE moving forward given the apparent lack of any real administration by @zeeb0t

Myself along with others have been driven off the main forum and cancelled our memberships but still remain active and chatting via private messaging if any known long time member wants to know more about what's going on or to have a chat.

I'll try to refraim from bothering to post here, it's just too much of a headache to be bothered with. Like most I'm only here out of necessity anyway to remain in touch and discussion with fellow shareholders.

Thanks people for the excellent information, will still be reading and giving the thumbs up if it isn't deleted. Hopefully we're at the end awaiting our payout and can leave this shit hole for good anyway.

If you have a private message group, please use Signal or another encrypted chat service. Signal is free, easy to use like messanger and it works all around the world with full user-user encryption. Most western militaries use it aswel for cellular communication.

 

[Papst]

Hey @Spikerama I wanted to reply to your post from yesterday during the window when the bad actors aren't wreaking havoc here. But I see that it's also gone.

I'll repeat again for your benefit and the benifit of others that this issue actually started with regular thoughtful everyday posts from multiple users being deleted in the dozens going back for multiple days of pages in the main forum.
Doesn't matter if you have them on ignore, doesn't matter if your posts are constructive - gone.

Then when people realise what has happened, who is doing it and call them out any retaliatory posts are selectively used as ammunition against those users as all of their other posts are deleted moving forward unless the pricks see some benefit in leaving it up for a bit.

The nefarious actor is boasting and spreading the word of the disruptions they've caused here across social media platforms for all of the known trolls and detractors to see. Not a healthy recipe for TSE moving forward given the apparent lack of any real administration by @zeeb0t

Myself along with others have been driven off the main forum and cancelled our memberships but still remain active and chatting via private messaging if any known long time member wants to know more about what's going on or to have a chat.

I'll try to refraim from bothering to post here, it's just too much of a headache to be bothered with. Like most I'm only here out of necessity anyway to remain in touch and discussion with fellow shareholders.

Thanks people for the excellent information, will still be reading and giving the thumbs up if it isn't deleted. Hopefully we're at the end awaiting our payout and can leave this shit hole for good anyway.

Argh it's such a shame hearing the valuable posters are leaving :/ I can just speek for myself, who, at least, scrolled over each of the last 3000 Page here or before many more on the crapper starting 6 years ago, never really contributed to the collective intel, but found assylum here with my stuck all-in investment. I believe there are so much more silent readers here who incredibly appretiate the awesome work that was collected here. And who found hope and a home with all their struggles. Yes, it somehow looks like as if the saga comes to an end. Nevertheless, it might be the most deciding time and I hope you might change your mind and come back here at some point in time.

 

[Carlos Danger]

Perhaps KoBold are looking at loaning all or part of $6.2b USD for the acquisition on top of investing their own $1b for development

Is 6.2B a number that was mentioned in the meeting?

Carlos, do you have an information source for the $6.2 billion loan that you have mentioned?

Key word is perhaps

$6.2b USD is how much AVZ is claiming at the ICSID for the destruction in value for its 75% holding in Dathcom

KoBold have a valuation of $3b USD and far less than that in the bank. So they will either need to raise or borrow to pay anything near actual appropriate compensation.

I don’t think we will get the full $6.2b USD but according to DLA Piper and me both working it out separately that is exactly how much our share of the project is worth

 

[wombat74]

Key word is perhaps

$6.2b USD is how much AVZ is claiming at the ICSID for the destruction in value for its 75% holding in Dathcom

KoBold have a valuation of $3b USD and far less than that in the bank. So they will either need to raise or borrow to pay anything near actual appropriate compensation.

I don’t think we will get the full $6.2b USD but according to DLA Piper and me both working it out separately that is exactly how much our share of the project is worth

Kobold val at $3b USD gives us approx $1.30 . So from there wouldn't take much to push it above ATH and clear us of any legal BS aftermath . Maybe some truth to this $1.50ish that's floating around ?

 

[KentCStrait]

Let’s be clear — USD $6.2 billion isn’t some aspirational number. It’s AVZ’s formal ICSID claim, backed by DLA Piper — one of the world’s top legal firms — and reflects the fair market value of AVZ’s 75% stake in one of the largest undeveloped lithium projects on the planet. That’s the floor, not the ceiling.

KoBold’s $3B valuation is irrelevant. If they want Roche Dure, they’ll need to raise or borrow. The project’s value isn’t limited by what’s in KoBold’s bank account. And with US strategic backing and security guarantees now in place, the old sovereign risk discount no longer applies — if anything, DLA’s valuation is conservative.

Let’s not forget — shareholders have had their capital locked up and the company delisted, all under the premise of protecting shareholder value. We’ve been told time and time again that AVZ expects to win at ICSID and ICC. For management to now turn around and accept a lowball offer would be a complete betrayal of everything we’ve been led to believe.

It’s also clear that those pushing for a quick, cheap exit are mostly early holders. But many retail investors came in later, off the back of AVZ’s own guidance and public assurances. They stand to lose the most if this is wrapped up below fair value — and they won’t just cop it quietly.

There are also serious tax implications to consider. Depending on how any payout is structured — whether it’s a dividend, a buyback, or a liquidation — late-in investors could lose even more if it denies them access to the CGT discount. If the structure isn’t handled correctly, the ATO will take a much bigger bite — and that alone could trigger legal action.

A deal at $6B+ brings this to a clean close — and even at that level, KoBold is walking away with the deal of the century. With the scale of the resource and the long-term upside, they’ll still make more money than God.

 

[Skar]

I am starting to get confused by all the numbers. Is the 6.2B for the loss of value 75% of north/south (the original project)?

I still can't reconcile how Cominiere can break off the north and form a separate JV with Zijin AND still maintain a 25% stake in the south... which would mean AVZ have 100% of south and 0% of north and from my reckoning is the only real basis of why AVZ would entertain China keeping north and AVZ keeping south (and selling to US).

I am guessing thats part of the framework that will need to be agreed to by DRC.

 

[Slipperysucker]

All we can do is wait and see what AVZ announces.

The rest is just noise. Good luck to all LTH, not long now in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Doc]

And another one

 

[Winenut]

I am starting to get confused by all the numbers. Is the 6.2B for the loss of value 75% of north/south (the original project)?

I still can't reconcile how Cominiere can break off the north and form a separate JV with Zijin AND still maintain a 25% stake in the south... which would mean AVZ have 100% of south and 0% of north and from my reckoning is the only real basis of why AVZ would entertain China keeping north and AVZ keeping south (and selling to US).

I am guessing thats part of the framework that will need to be agreed to by DRC.

This was my thinking too Skar

I couldn't see why a valuation would be based on 75% of the old totality of PR13359 when it "appears" Zijin is going to get the north in the carve up and negotiations

Agreed too that Cominiere shouldn't have 25% of the south (and it appears Kobold have given them a big fuck you as part of the deal anyway)

I do however wonder about the 10% that had to be ceded to the DRC Govt and whether that might still be in play????

Not sure????

So are we looking at 90% of the south for the $ mark on a valuation????

Whatever it is I hope it ends up truly being "fair" compensation for AVZ and all shareholders

 

[wombat74]

This was my thinking too Skar

I couldn't see why a valuation would be based on 75% of the old totality of PR13359 when it "appears" Zijin is going to get the north in the carve up and negotiations

Agreed too that Cominiere shouldn't have 25% of the south (and it appears Kobold have given them a big fuck you as part of the deal anyway)

I do however wonder about the 10% that had to be ceded to the DRC Govt and whether that might still be in play????

Not sure????

So are we looking at 90% of the south for the $ mark on a valuation????

Whatever it is I hope it ends up truly being "fair" compensation for AVZ and all shareholders

View attachment 85695

And Celestine Kibeya , in fear of sh1tting himself , can now remove his nappies .

 

[Winenut]

Looks like someone forgot to moderate your post today. Must be on a RDO?

We wait and see my friend

We wait and see........

 

[Doc]

Looks like someone forgot to moderate your post today. Must be on a RDO?

The temp was just a bit slow, having a ciggie