AVZ Discussion 2022

[Azzler]

That's neither a given....With an Icc result incoming and without doubt AVZ will win all the cases, the north, or at least the part where the drilling took place, will be most probably part of the deal...or another compensation or may be an offer from Zijin...but no way this will go for nothing or peanuts to Zijin. Its ours...full stop

IMHO only, the DRC will compensate us for the North.
It wont be anything near its true value, but it's too messy and holding up the deal with trump to go for years to get back the north doesn't make sense if we can get out reasonably clean and wealthy anyway.
We didn't invest for justice, we invested for money.

 

[j.l]

I think AVZ sits in a very fortune position atm. If the US makes an offer for a take over, Cath, without any doubt, will outbid the Us...

I like the idea of a bidding war, but in practical terms I struggle to see how it could play out this way.

Presumably Felix becomes beholden to the US in order to be saved from M23 and part of the deal is that AVZ gets the ML and sells out to Trump's US company of choice.

I don't see how any bidding can take place, since AVZ only gets the ML on condition of sale to the nominated US party.

Hard to see Trump intervening only to have Manono go to a non-preferred (non US) entity.

It's not like we can turn the deal down either - we know the ICSID/ICC route will likely be successful but its ability to bear fruit is unclear, given the difficulty of enforcing a financial penalty on a broke, corrupt regime.

Sure we could fight the good fight, but to what end? If we turn the US deal down, we can probably kiss goodbye any support in enforcing an ICSID decision.

 

[Mute22]

Just got my hands on a leaked copy of Trump’s new post-presidency autobiography. There’s a whole chapter where he claims he personally brokered a lithium deal between AVZ Minerals, the DRC, and the U.S. government to “stop China from powering our Teslas.” He calls it “The Art of the Lithium Deal” and says he brokered the deal while sipping Diet Coke and eating Big Macs - absolute madness!:

Chapter 14: Lithium, Deals, and Winning Big — The AVZ Play


Let me tell you something about minerals — the real power isn’t in gold, it’s in lithium. That’s the future. That’s the battery in your phone, your car, your life. And I saw it coming. That’s what separates winners from losers — vision. Some people sit around, thinking. I deal. That’s why I was fascinated by AVZ Minerals. Small company, big potential — sitting on one of the biggest lithium deposits in the world, right in the DRC. Manono. Sounds exotic, right? It's a goldmine — except with lithium. Better than gold.

Now, the DRC — Democratic Republic of the Congo — not exactly Wall Street, but they’ve got the dirt we need. And the U.S. government? They need that lithium. Big time. China’s been scooping it up for years, locking down supply. We’re not gonna let that happen. I said, Let’s make a deal. America’s going electric, and I’m not about to let Beijing power our Teslas.

So here’s what we do — we get AVZ in the room. We get the DRC’s President in the room. And the U.S. throws in some “security cooperation.” That’s code for — we get the lithium, they get a little muscle, everybody wins. I call it strategic synergy. Some people call it geopolitics. I call it common sense.

Of course, the lawyers go nuts — "sanctions," "permitting," "jurisdictional risk" — blah blah blah. Let me tell you something — I’ve stared down bigger regulators before breakfast. You find the angles. You push the papers. You get the signatures. Because in the end, deals are made by people who want them more. And I wanted this one more.

Now AVZ is looking at a seat at the table with the big players. U.S. battery manufacturers? Smiling. DRC? Getting investment. China? Nervous. And me? Sitting back, sipping Diet Coke, watching it all play out — just like I planned.

 

[wombat74]

IMHO only, the DRC will compensate us for the North.
It wont be anything near its true value, but it's too messy and holding up the deal with trump to go for years to get back the north doesn't make sense if we can get out reasonably clean and wealthy anyway.
We didn't invest for justice, we invested for money.

If we sell maybe they could wipe our sales tax .

 

[JNRB]

I don't know why anyone would offer to take over AVZ if Dathcom "didn't have" the ML or at the very least have some reasonable assurance that it would be receiving the ML as part of the deal

Just IMO

Statistically speaking*, legitmately obtaining a mining license is only the 4th most common route for mineral extraction in DRC.

1. Paperbag (for either "license" or to ignore not having one or exceeding its limits)
2. Informal artisinal mining
3. Force (a-la-M23)
4. Due process to obtain a mining permit


*with my opinion being statistical fact because that's the world we live in now

 

[Frank]

Fyi, Not sure if posted before, thought it was interesting and worth a look for those who may have missed it,

DRC: Cominière conviction in the case of Manono's Lithium, Jean-Pierre Okenda talks about a logical follow-up of the case​

The decision of the International Chamber of Commerce, ICC, to condemn the Congolese Public Society (therefore the Congolese State), to pay EUR 39.1 million to the Société Australia AV- is, from an analytical point of view, “quite logical”, for not having complied with the procedures of justice, says Jean-Pierre Okenda, Analyste Senior and Director of the “La Sentinelle” “La Sentinelle”.

“This conviction is only a prelude to what is going to happen in this complex trial, which had its debut in Lubumbashi, Kalemie, and in Kinshasa, before the International Chamber of Commerce made this international arbitration decision,” said Jean-Pierre Okenda, who also asked: “what the Democratic Republic of the Congo wins, that the Congolese win and that the population of Manono, in Tangany Province,” said “that .”

He continued:

“I was in Manono, Manono Province, in February, the situation of local communities is very difficult. The population lives in indescribable poverty.”

Weighing the decision taken by the Congolese authorities to approve the licence of the Australian company AVZ and to reverse its decision some time later, the Senior Analyst and Executive Director of the Ong La Sentinelle des Ressources Naturelles, without a language in his pocket, says:

“The decision taken by the authorities is beneficial only to the elite in power, and not to the Congolese State in general.

In short, decision-makers took the decision extremely outside the interests of the communities ...”.

Without being a prophet of misfortune, Jean-Pierre Okenda, said he anticipated the failure of the Congolese Public Society Cominiere in this matter: ...

I sincerely feel that the Congo (as shareholder of the Cominière) will be a loser.

For there has been politicization in this case; there has been a collision of interest in this file ... “

In this exclusive interview with the Editor of Surveillance.cd, the Senior Analyst and Executive Director of the Natural Resources Sentinel, considers this situation as a waste in terms of income, in terms of impact for the communities, and in terms of the bad reputation of the DRC.

With such a dossier, we reinforce the negative image of the DRC, which does not know how to protect investments.

“Loss in terms of the image of the DRC, in terms of material losses, where is what the Congolese Public Society Cominière will find nearly EUR 40 million to pay, for the Australian company AV? "he wonders."

This expert invites the Congolese elite, which is in power, “to take decisions that give priority to the interests of Congo, the Congolese and the Congolese communities, for the good reputation of the DRC.”

surveillance.cd

 

[Flight996]

Statistically speaking*, legitmately obtaining a mining license is only the 4th most common route for mineral extraction in DRC.

1. Paperbag (for either "license" or to ignore not having one or exceeding its limits)
2. Informal artisinal mining
3. Force (a-la-M23)
4. Due process to obtain a mining permit


*with my opinion being statistical fact because that's the world we live in now

And just like the dysfunctional Victorian bail laws, due process should be followed only when all other options are exhausted.

 

[Azzler]

If we sell maybe they could wipe our sales tax .

This might indeed be our compensation. Tax free sale.

 

[Spikerama]

Alright folks this is a very basic version of the new counter. NOT FOR PUBLIC consumption just yet. (JAG hold your horses)

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

What I thought would be good is to have some scrolling text bites at the bottom to add context the the story. There's only one in there currently but you get the idea. I'd love it if any one wants to write a few more, I can work them in.

Mainly though, since everyone has their browsers at different size settings I'd love it if you could post me a screen shot of what it looks like on yours. My Chrome is set to 150 % and it looks like this which is close to how I like it.

 

[j.l]

post me a screen shot of what it looks like on yours.

 

[Spikerama]

View attachment 79741

I mean click the link silly and show me what the app looks like on your browser.

 

[rocknrolla]

Getting my hopes up again. Starting to feel it $$$

 

[Dom1974]

ICC fine continues at $50k euro a day. Since 10th March, Cominiere has already cost the DRC another $500k euro. Is there a calculator we can tweet that adds this figure daily, then add it to the $39m to give a running daily total (excluding interest).

 

[Spikerama]

Looks pretty good to me on the Old Win10 Desktop using Firefox which is set @100%

View attachment 79750

Apart from one minor detail

Eww. That looks a bit horrid. Definitely need to optimise. Thanks mate.

 

[Thaz]

Alright folks this is a very basic version of the new counter. NOT FOR PUBLIC consumption just yet. (JAG hold your horses)

AVZ vs DRC @ ICSID - Final Countdown

Countdown to the ICSID tribunal of AVZ vs DRC (Congolese).

avz-icsid-final-countdown.netlify.app

What I thought would be good is to have some scrolling text bites at the bottom to add context the the story. There's only one in there currently but you get the idea. Id any one wants to write a few more I can work them in.

Mainly though, since everyone has their browsers at different size settings I'd love it if you could post me a screen shot of what it looks like on yours. My Chrome is set to 150 % and it looks like this which is close to how I like it.

View attachment 79740

On my phone ( fold 6)
Closed and open

 

[Pokok]

I know it's not Friday but I thought of a joke .
How come when a woman is pregnant
and everyone rubs her stomach and says congratulations
but no one rubs your balls and says good job ?

 

[Azzler]

I know it's not Friday but I thought of a joke .
How come when a woman is pregnant
and everyone rubs her stomach and says congratulations
but no one rubs your balls and says good job ?

Do you really want me rubbing you balls Pokok?

 

[cruiser51]

I mean click the link silly and show me what the app looks like on your browser.