I think the probability of Zijin completely throwing in the towel and walking away from Manono is very minimal.As @j.l mentions, i believe Nigel was just painting the picture at the current situation. Prior to the CATH JV announcement it was quite obvious to say that as part of any negotiations, that Zijin had a small leg up on the DRC if they wanted to try that avenue.
Since the CATH JV ann though, I am in agreeance with most other people here that Zijin will walk away with their tail between their legs at the order of Xi/CCP, seeing as China still get the product anyway and a large minority ownership.
The only relevant thing that I remember Nigel talking about was that because the Locke Funding was finalised, there was some "other parties" interested in raising capital... He didn't mention anything about CATH though and throwing all of their money at the Stage 1 proposal which leads me to think that Nigel either kept his cards close to his chest (smart thing to do until the ann eventuated anyway) OR; CATH approached us after the AGM or vice versa.
Wonder if we do come out of this, if the DRC will be up for a new MoM thoughwhat an absolute shambles of a bloke he has been
They'll push forward with development of the north, aiming to be such a fact on the ground that they'll not be dislodged with ease. They'll then look to fight for that zone, or at least part of it, whether through negotiations or legal actions.
China play the long game, and i think they'll look to try and control the north directly, and the south at least indirectly - if not directly down the line.
But I feel there's still a path forward here that ends with AVZ getting a reasonable outcome for us long-suffering shareholders, even with that scenario playing out.