AVZ Discussion 2022

[tolate]

If Zijin do end up in some way retaining the north through all this and we get the south with our good friends CATH who gets camp Colline?

Yes sounds all good to me as a AVZ S H
Im not going to be GREEDY as some...!
Cath is in charge but has better conditions.
Cath being chinese might help AVZ to get a M L...?????
Now that would be awesome.....!

 

[Winenut]

Oh dear

I have an idiot on ignore and some shit still manages to come through

What's up with that???? @zeeb0t

 

[TheCount]

Thanks for the reply - you make good points.

Re. Zijin I think it's very possible they'll keep the north as part of some kind of compromise/negotiation (Which of course is completely fucked).

You and some others commented that CATH won't want to mine because they would rather focus on their core business. Good point. However, I also think they would consider an unknown mining company from Aus quite a high risk to go through the rest of the process if this project is indeed highly strategic for them. It also might not be and rather just be a supply diversification strategy or contingency.

Another good point re having a 'western' partner owning the mine as some countries/companies requirements around supply chains.

What do you mean limitations on who Cath can sell to sorry? I am a little confused on this.

@TheCount what would you like to know?

@cruiser51 sorry mate I didn't get what you were referring to? Ive read the announcements but maybe I misunderstood something

Welcome back Shane.

 

[Ancient]

Righto. I see how things are. After lurking for a long time I wanted to finally join a discussion and I get immediately met with hostility.

 

[cruiser51]

View attachment 76122

Eeeeewwwww
And I thought you were a streetwise shonky accountant.

 

[Roon]

Righto. I see how things are. After lurking for a long time I wanted to finally join a discussion and I get immediately met with hostility.

Don't worry about it, happens to everyone here at some point. Can't be questioning the party line!

 

[Panther22]

Thanks for the reply - you make good points.

Re. Zijin I think it's very possible they'll keep the north as part of some kind of compromise/negotiation (Which of course is completely fucked).

You and some others commented that CATH won't want to mine because they would rather focus on their core business. Good point. However, I also think they would consider an unknown mining company from Aus quite a high risk to go through the rest of the process if this project is indeed highly strategic for them. It also might not be and rather just be a supply diversification strategy or contingency.

Another good point re having a 'western' partner owning the mine as some countries/companies requirements around supply chains.

What do you mean limitations on who Cath can sell to sorry? I am a little confused on this.

@TheCount what would you like to know?

@cruiser51 sorry mate I didn't get what you were referring to? Ive read the announcements but maybe I misunderstood something

AVZ hardly an unknown miner to CATH. There was the 24% - $240 million arrangement between the two companies before Zijin and Comminere started their shit.

 

[cruiser51]

Righto. I see how things are. After lurking for a long time I wanted to finally join a discussion and I get immediately met with hostility.

Maybe better stick to lurking only.

If you wish to bait people, HC is the place to go.

 

[cruiser51]

Don't worry about it, happens to everyone here at some point. Can't be questioning the party line!

It is not about following the party line Roon, you are smarter than that.

It is all about asking leading questions and playing silly bugger.
It is called baiting.

If somebody comes through the revolving door with that mentality, he should not expect applause, better revolve the full 360 circle.

If it smells like a troll, walks like a troll and quacks like a troll, it highly likely is a troll.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

Eeeeewwwww
And I thought you were a streetwise shonky accountant.

He's a dirty booker

 

[Winenut]

Eeeeewwwww
And I thought you were a streetwise shonky accountant.

Says the man who's first response was "Eeeeewwwww"

 

[Xerof]

Hey Wino, one of your boxes adds up to 101. Thought I'd mention it before someone else works it out

 

[Winenut]

Its not even Friday yet and it feels like the good ol' days.....

 

[Carlos Danger]

There is zero reasonable conjecture on Dathomir's 15%

Righto. I see how things are. After lurking for a long time I wanted to finally join a discussion and I get immediately met with hostility.

What's your view on Dathomir's 15%?

 

[Dutchaussie86]

Welcome back Shane.

Also known as FatCatz

 

[Ancient]

AVZ hardly an unknown miner to CATH. There was the 24% - $240 million arrangement between the two companies before Zijin and Comminere started their shit.

I didn't mean that AVZ were unknown to CATH overall. I meant it in the sense that they were unproven for execution and that if manono was important for them strategically then they might not want the risk of having an unproven company develop it. My perspective at the time of the previous TIA was completely opposite and I believed the intentions (of avz) were to leverage that strategic supply to negotiate a good partnership position. Which I believe was a very good outcome for AVZ. I believed the knowledge that CATH brought to the table was of significant value when it came to chemical production and I believed that was necessary to make this project as profitable as possible considering the transport costs. I believe that a part of the process for CATH to partner in the first place they would be privy to the ins and outs of this project and they know better then anyone.

However, I also believe that over time the importance to CATH has been more solidified and hence not wanting the additional risk of execution out of their control. I think this is also why we're seeing the recent announcement / TIA. Because the game has changed and they are here to win.

 

[Ancient]

What's your view on Dathomir's 15%?
View attachment 76132

Hi Carlos, appreciate the commentary and sharing to date. Lots of thought provoking posts. Thank you.

Regarding your question on Dathomir's 15%. I think the ICC case will go in AVZs favour as it seems like a classic case of buyers remorse and Id like to think they'll see through that. But there could easily be pieces of information that I simply don't know about that raise issues in the case.

I believe that in every scenario we need to have the blessings of the DRC government whether that is through accommodating some requirements I don't know about (e.g. bringing in a more established partner), or whether through pressure from political or legal means. Regardless i believe we need the DRC government blessings to proceed. I believe this because even if we win ICC they could cause all kinds of issues when going to apply those rulings within the country.

It would be reasonable to think the ICC case could start a chain reaction in favour of AVZ, flowing into ICSID. But to be honest based on this new TIA announcement I think a negotiation which includes the blessing from DRC government is more likely and definitely the way to go at this stage. We need their support.

 

[wombat74]

Hi Carlos, appreciate the commentary and sharing to date. Lots of thought provoking posts. Thank you.

Regarding your question on Dathomir's 15%. I think the ICC case will go in AVZs favour as it seems like a classic case of buyers remorse and Id like to think they'll see through that. But there could easily be pieces of information that I simply don't know about that raise issues in the case.

I believe that in every scenario we need to have the blessings of the DRC government whether that is through accommodating some requirements I don't know about (e.g. bringing in a more established partner), or whether through pressure from political or legal means. Regardless i believe we need the DRC government blessings to proceed. I believe this because even if we win ICC they could cause all kinds of issues when going to apply those rulings within the country.

It would be reasonable to think the ICC case could start a chain reaction in favour of AVZ, flowing into ICSID. But to be honest based on this new TIA announcement I think a negotiation which includes the blessing from DRC government is more likely and definitely the way to go at this stage. We need their support.

So ultimately what you are saying is we need DRC Government support . Wow, absolute genius.

 

[Lucas Don Velor]

Thanks for the reply - you make good points.

Re. Zijin I think it's very possible they'll keep the north as part of some kind of compromise/negotiation (Which of course is completely fucked).

You and some others commented that CATH won't want to mine because they would rather focus on their core business. Good point. However, I also think they would consider an unknown mining company from Aus quite a high risk to go through the rest of the process if this project is indeed highly strategic for them. It also might not be and rather just be a supply diversification strategy or contingency.

Another good point re having a 'western' partner owning the mine as some countries/companies requirements around supply chains.

What do you mean limitations on who Cath can sell to sorry? I am a little confused on this.

@TheCount what would you like to know?

@cruiser51 sorry mate I didn't get what you were referring to? Ive read the announcements but maybe I misunderstood something

If CATH 'hyperthetically' considered AVZ to be high risk, then the option to purchase 49% of a hydroxide plant doesn't fit that narrative?!

 

[Frank]

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