DiscoDanNZ
Regular
Quoting this for tax time when we all get our payouts.
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
Was that another GROK analysis ?
cruiser51
Top 20
grok 3
Mr GROK is a smart puter....I wonder what the below statement was meant to mean ?More from Grok... I had to push the cunt to get this:
Strategic Overview
Your goal is to ensure AVZ retains control of the Manono deposit and delivers a return on investment. With the stock suspended, selling or diversifying isn’t an option—your leverage lies in amplifying AVZ’s legal battles, influencing DRC decision-makers, and rallying international support. Below are the key focus areas, with an emphasis on people to hire and lobbying efforts.
1. Legal Escalation
AVZ is already engaged in arbitration (e.g., ICC cases), and your funding can tip the scales.
- Hire Top Arbitration Experts:
- White & Case or Quinn Emanuel Urquhart & Sullivan: These firms dominate international arbitration, especially in mining disputes. They can reinforce AVZ’s legal team, expedite rulings, or secure interim measures to block ownership changes by Cominiere or others.
- Why Them? They’ve handled high-stakes cases in volatile jurisdictions and can outmaneuver opponents with superior resources.
- Action: Allocate funds to retain them immediately—time is critical.
- Additional Leverage:
- Push for emergency injunctive relief under ICC rules to freeze any transactions involving Manono. This preserves AVZ’s position while disputes play out.
2. Lobbying and Political Influence
The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
- Target the Minister of Mines:
- Kizito Pakabomba, in office since 2024, oversees mining policy. His public stance on diversifying investments suggests openness to foreign players like AVZ. Direct lobbying could sway him.
- Hire a Local Fixer: Engage a Kinshasa-based consultant with ties to Pakabomba or the Ministry of Mines. A name like Victor Kasongo (former deputy mines minister) could be a starting point—verify his current influence through local networks.
- Action: Commission a discreet intermediary to arrange meetings or backchannel talks.
- Lobbying Firms:
- Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company: These firms specialize in African political navigation and have networks spanning government and industry.
- Why Them? They can influence DRC elites and counter rival lobbying (e.g., from Chinese firms).
- Action: Contract them to develop a six-month influence campaign targeting DRC decision-makers.
- Western Diplomatic Pressure:
- Australian Embassy (Harare) and U.S. State Department (Africa Bureau): Pitch Manono as a strategic lithium asset for the West, countering China’s grip on DRC minerals.
- Hire a DC-Based Firm: Covington & Burling or Akin Gump can lobby Western governments to press the DRC.
- Action: Frame this as a geopolitical win—secure meetings with DFAT and State Department officials.
3. Local and Public Support
Winning over the Manono region strengthens AVZ’s foothold.
- Community Engagement:
- Hire a Local PR Firm: A Kinshasa-based outfit can manage projects (e.g., schools, roads) to build goodwill with locals.
- Why? Community backing makes it politically harder for the DRC to oust AVZ.
- Action: Fund visible initiatives and amplify them via local media.
4. Financial Reinforcement
If AVZ’s resources are strained, your group can keep them fighting.
- Litigation Funding:
- Burford Capital: A leader in financing legal battles without equity dilution.
- Why Them? They ensure AVZ can sustain its ICC/ICSID cases.
- Action: Negotiate a funding package tied to arbitration outcomes.
Key People and Entities to Hire
- Legal: White & Case or Quinn Emanuel (arbitration firepower).
- Lobbying (Africa): Africa Practice or Hakluyt & Company (DRC influence).
- Lobbying (West): Covington & Burling or Akin Gump (diplomatic push).
- Local Fixer: Kinshasa consultant with Pakabomba access (e.g., Victor Kasongo, pending verification).
- PR: Kinshasa-based firm for community outreach.
- Funding: Burford Capital for litigation support.
Why This Matters: The Market Cap Prize
The Manono deposit’s scale—potentially billions in market cap—is at stake. Lithium demand is skyrocketing, and success here could transform AVZ into a global player. Your efforts could unlock this value, dwarfing current investments.
Why It Works
Focus your efforts here, deploy your connections, and hire these experts. The Manono deposit is yours to defend—and win.
- Legal: DRC respects international arbitration; your funding can secure wins.
- Lobbying: Pakabomba and DRC elites respond to pressure and incentives—your resources can deliver both.
- Geopolitics: Western governments want lithium security; your framing aligns with their interests.
Best regards,
[Your Strategic Ally]
This Victor Kasongo looks like an interesting character!
The DRC’s political landscape is complex, but your connections and capital can open doors.
Overall tho, i think AVZ have got the bases covered, with CATH doing our bidding.......supposedly.
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"CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government"
(in ways that AVZ can't?)
Azzler
Top 20
CashKing
Regular
Last edited:
cruiser51
Top 20
Some interesting weekend reading:
understandingwar.org
Institute for the Study of War
Democratic Republic of the Congo. Rwandan-backed M23 captured the South Kivu provincial capital, Bukavu, and continued to advance on several axes in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). M23’s advances have set conditions for the group to e
Hodlandwin69
Regular
Attachments
Xerof
Flaming 1967
Well, if Nigel's over there, he can't be in WASC next Thursday I thought to myself, sooo, check court listings, and it's no longer there (It was there just a few days ago).
Now, I have been caught out before when there have been shifts in dates, postponements, etc, so I'm not getting too fixated on this being a definite development, but then I also recalled one of the lines in the TIA amendment was:
Hmmm
PEI to GUO and his mates: FUCK OFF
Now, I have been caught out before when there have been shifts in dates, postponements, etc, so I'm not getting too fixated on this being a definite development, but then I also recalled one of the lines in the TIA amendment was:
Hmmm
PEI to GUO and his mates: FUCK OFF
What Congo’s President Thinks of Rwanda: A ‘Mania to Be the Apex Predator’
As vast swaths of Congolese territory are seized by a Rwandan-backed armed group, Congo’s president looks to make a minerals deal with the United States.
TheCount
Regular
Hi Shane!What Congo’s President Thinks of Rwanda: A ‘Mania to Be the Apex Predator’
As vast swaths of Congolese territory are seized by a Rwandan-backed armed group, Congo’s president looks to make a minerals deal with the United States.www.nytimes.com
The article without all the log in bullshit
What Congo’s President Thinks of Rwanda: A ‘Mania to Be the Apex Predator’
As vast swaths of Congolese territory are seized by a Rwandan-backed armed group, Congo’s president looks to make a minerals deal with the United States.Listen to this article · 7:24 min Learn more
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President Felix Tshisekedi of the Democratic Republic of Congo arriving to cast his vote at a polling station in Kinshasa in 2023.Credit...Guerchom Ndebo for The New York Times
By Ruth Maclean
Reporting from Nairobi, Kenya
Feb. 22, 2025, 5:00 a.m. ET
Want to stay updated on what’s happening in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda? Sign up for Your Places: Global Update, and we’ll send our latest coverage to your inbox.
In his first interview since an armed group backed by Rwanda seized swaths of his country’s territory this year, Felix Tshisekedi, the president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, offered the United States and Europe a stake in his country’s vast mineral wealth, a sector currently dominated by China.
Congo is considered to be among the world’s wealthiest country in terms of natural resources. It provides much of the world’s coltan, which is used to power smartphones and computers. It also holds more than half the world’s cobalt reserves,used in electric vehicles.
Mr. Tshisekedi seemed eager to capitalize on this as he tries to manage a conflict he says is similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Tshisekedi has pinned his hopes on Western pressure against Rwanda, calculating that major investments in Congo — including a possible minerals deal — would bring his country much more security and stability.
China currently has far greater access to Congo’s mineral wealth than the United States, while the European Union has negotiated with Rwanda, agreeing to give it about $935 million in return for access to minerals like tin, tungsten and gold.
Mr. Tshisekedi said those minerals are plundered by Rwanda from his country, and called Europe’s deal “an absolute scandal,” accusing the European Union of being “complicit in the theft and looting of Congo.”
Image
A coltan mine near the town of Rubaya in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.Credit...Baz Ratner/Reuters
The European Union has argued that the deal will lead to increased regulation and greater cooperation in the fight against conflict materials. Last week, the European Parliament called for the deal to be suspended until Rwanda ceased all interference in Congo, “including exporting minerals mined from M23-controlled areas.”
Competition over Congo’s riches has long kept its population among the world’s poorest, and the weakness of its army has kept it vulnerable to outsiders.
An armed group called M23 began its lightning offensive in eastern Congo earlier this year. The group is made up of roughly 8,000 men that the United States and the United Nations say are directed and funded by Rwanda.
M23 has killed thousands of Congolese soldiers and civilians since January, capturing two key airports and two major eastern cities, Goma and Bukavu. It is currently marching toward a third.
On Thursday, the United States announced sanctions on an M23 spokesman and a Rwandan government minister for links to the violence in eastern Congo.
A thousand miles to the west in Kinshasa, Congo’s capital, Mr. Tshisekedi has been running out of options. Speaking over video call from his wood-paneled office, he said he had skipped recent peace talks on the conflict because Rwanda has insisted he speak directly to M23.
“I don’t want to negotiate with M23,” he said. “M23 is an empty shell.”
Mr. Tshisekedi accuses Rwanda of trying to disguise M23 as a Congolese armed movement, saying it is really a creation of the Rwandan military meant to defend Rwandan interests in Congo, including plundering minerals. “We’d rather talk to Rwanda,” he said.
Image
Volunteers prepared the communal burial of those killed during a week of clashes in Goma, eastern Congo, earlier this month.Credit...Guerchom Ndebo for The New York Times
Paul Kagame, the president of Rwanda, has denied funding or directing M23. In response to a request for comment, a spokeswoman for Mr. Kagame wrote that Mr. Tshisekedi was promoting a “tired story,” and encouraged him to “follow the road map African regional leaders have decided.”
Those regional efforts to resolve the crisis have floundered, and Mr. Kagame has also refused to attend recent peace talks. Calls by the African Union for a cease-fire have so far gone unheeded.
But the crisis is at a pivotal moment. In its sanctions announcement on Thursday, the United States warned of the prospect of a wider regional war.
This week, M23 attacked all the main Congolese military positions on the road to Butembo, a city north of Goma, according to local reports. M23 has also said it has its sights on Kinshasa. Mr. Tshisekedi has vowed to retake Goma from M23 “either through dialogue or military reconquest.”
The Trump administration has already shown interest in a deal that could ensure a stream of strategic minerals directly from Congo, Mr. Tshisekedi said. He also touted investments in major Congolese projects including a mega dam that, if completed, would be the world’s largest hydroelectric plant.
At the same time, Rwanda has cultivated relationships with Western powers — hosting major sporting events and concerts with celebrities like Kendrick Lamar — making more aggressive sanctions from the West unlikely to come quickly, analysts say.
“Leaders need to be braver,” Mr. Tshisekedi said. “It seems to me everyone’s afraid of Kagame. Why? That surprises me.”
M23 claims its mission is to protect one of Congo’s ethnic minorities.
Thirty years ago, about 800,000 civilians, mostly Tutsis, were slaughtered in Rwanda by members of the Hutu majority. After the genocide, many of the Hutus in Rwanda fled into Congo to avoid facing justice. M23 claims the Tshisekedi government is failing to protect Congolese Tutsi, known in Congo as Banyamulenge, from discrimination.
Image
Thousands of abandoned machetes collected at the border of Rwanda and Tanzania in 1994, where Hutus fleeing Rwanda were allowed to cross the border on the condition that they left behind their weapons.Credit...David Turnley/Corbis, via Getty Images
Mr. Tshisekedi has denied this. “That’s not true,” he said in the interview. “I am the first president of this country to have said loud and clear to all my compatriots that the Banyamulenge, or Congolese Kinyarwanda-speaking Tutsi, all are indeed Congolese.”
Mr. Kagame says the conflict in eastern Congo must be resolved between Congolese leaders and the rebels. He has acknowledged that Rwandan troops are present in Congo, but denies supporting M23. Fighters hostile to Rwanda in eastern Congo pose a national security risk for his country, Mr. Kagame has said.
Mr. Tshisekedi said in the interview that this was a false pretext to justify invasion. “In reality, they’re plundering Congo’s natural resources,” he said, calling Mr. Kagame a “warlord” with a “mania to be the apex predator.” According to the United Nations, M23 already controls much of Congo’s coltan.
So far, the United States has issued condemnations of Rwanda but taken little action. On Jan. 30, President Trump called the fighting in eastern Congo “a very serious problem” but declined to say more.
Experts said the sanctions announced on Thursday were a significant symbolic step — particularly those against James Kabarebe, one of Mr. Kagame’s oldest loyalists, who helped a previous incarnation of Rwanda-backed rebels seize Kinshasa in 1997.
But, analysts say, the United States could go much further, for instance by pushing the World Bank to cut Rwanda’s funding, much of which is provided by the U.S. government, and by reviewing Rwanda’s lucrative role as a supplier of troops to peacekeeping missions.
On Friday, the U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted a draft resolution that called for the withdrawal of Rwandan troops in Congo and an end t
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