Flexi
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AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
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Xerof
Flaming 1967
I get paid every second Tuesday, so tomorrow?
Question for SME'S...I'm sure NF and Board want to return maximum value to SH once this shit show has concluded. What is the most likely pathway / structure for that? I'd rather not relist if it means the same cunts that shorted us way back at the start get another opportunity to do so again.
Xerof
Flaming 1967
@blu
If you look at the recent announcement, the official line is we are committed to developing Manono, repeated in several paragraphs.
I doubt they would ever stray from that narrative, and IMO, it's extremely important that they now push very hard in the Courts to ensure they squeeze out any avenues for anything but attaining a ML and a pathway to mining.
So my current expectation is a re-list, like it or not
Anything else needs to be a complete surprise
If you look at the recent announcement, the official line is we are committed to developing Manono, repeated in several paragraphs.
I doubt they would ever stray from that narrative, and IMO, it's extremely important that they now push very hard in the Courts to ensure they squeeze out any avenues for anything but attaining a ML and a pathway to mining.
So my current expectation is a re-list, like it or not
Anything else needs to be a complete surprise
Good point, thanks@blu
If you look at the recent announcement, the official line is we are committed to developing Manono, repeated in several paragraphs.
I doubt they would ever stray from that narrative, and IMO, it's extremely important that they now push very hard in the Courts to ensure they squeeze out any avenues for anything but attaining a ML and a pathway to mining.
So my current expectation is a re-list, like it or not
Anything else needs to be a complete surprise
cruiser51
Top 20
That was the general tone during the last AGM from the BOD.@blu
If you look at the recent announcement, the official line is we are committed to developing Manono, repeated in several paragraphs.
I doubt they would ever stray from that narrative, and IMO, it's extremely important that they now push very hard in the Courts to ensure they squeeze out any avenues for anything but attaining a ML and a pathway to mining.
So my current expectation is a re-list, like it or not
Anything else needs to be a complete surprise
Having people say now 'Sell the show', is not what the BOD said.
It is what people say, because they have a nose full off the DRC's carry on and the BS created by Zijin, in an attempt to steal something in bright daylight.
However saying now sell the whole shit and caboodle is not the smartest thing to do.
Allow the BOD to do their thing.
They know much better than we know what is going on and they only will reveal what is considered smart to be revealed, by them and their legal advisors.
Having an early GT might help to calm the nerves.
Remark
Top 20
Unfortunately it seems to be a spring roll
grassseeds
Regular
Like most posters, I welcome the potential for a deal being done and this has the potential for AVZ to get off the canvas. AVZ has continued to find that rarely will any non Chinese entity invest in the DRC. This deal ( in whatever guise it is finalised ) will cement Chinese control of Manono and also strongly influence the world Lithium market. I suspect that when the project is operational, and with the probable large output, this will keep the price of Lithium under constant pressure. The Chinese Company's needs for Lithium material will be met by the availability of this major resource, and this will help to restrict the buying price of Lithium. You only need to see what has happened in Indonesia with Chinese control of Nickel. Was Zijin's action of being the Bad Cop used to allow Cath to be the Good Cop to ensure control of Manono?
It is now a bit clearer why the Locke deal took so long. The Cath deal was also running in parallel for some of the time.
I suspect that Cath has nearly all the ducks lined up with all groups involved, and we are only waiting on the finer details to be signed off by each party before the Chinese Govt. gives the seal of approval. This must have been a massive effort, as the groups involved include DRC Govt, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin, AVZ, Cath and the Chinese Govt. Cath's size, reputation, and ability to conclude deals were some of the ingredients that AVZ lacked.
I have a few concerns, and we can only hope that our Board can get some success in protecting the Company and Shareholders. AVZ does not have a lot of clout or big brother support. Shareholders must recognise that Cath will not be a benevolent supporter of shareholders.
The Cath deal announcement by AVZ makes no comment about the legal issues. Interestingly, neither party has paid the fees to progress the cases. AVZ indicated that they would pay, but we have no confirmation of this action. Don't forget we were told that the deal with Locke was finalised but we had no confirmation of any signing. Cath proposes to provide funds at the end of January. Is this too late? Is termination of legal action part of the Cath deal? What happens if the deal falls over? I doubt that AVZ will get any substantial funds from the judgements made to date, but AVZ may be able to use these legal awards as bargaining chips.
The price Cath pays for their 30.5% of the total project is just under $300 million. How were these figures worked out? Is it as a result of other deals? With AVZ being left with 29.5% ( based on the initial 60% holding ) this should highlight to shareholders that AVZ's value is nowhere near some of the dreams postulated by a few.
Yes, if the Dathomir deal is sorted, AVZ can go to 44.5% of the project. I believe Cath is the only group that can get this finalised. AVZ requires this to be fixed to cancel the DRC Court's rulings of penalties against AVZ, and to eliminate the action against Graeme Johnston. Funds held in escrow how will this be fixed? Will Dathomir be paid any extra?
Regarding Cominiere, is it possible to cancel previous deals regarding AVZ's ROFR. If AVZ can gain a minimum of 6% of Cominiere's original 25%, and agreement is made that payment is offset by the approx $60 million legal costs awarded against Cominiere, this could lift AVZ's share to 51%. Zijin to retain the other 9% (?) and Cominiere pass on the 10% to DRC Govt.
Shareholding then Cath 30.5%, AVZ 50.5%, Zijin 9 % and DRC Govt 10%. Cath may dangle the Lithium Hydroxide or other material upgrading to smooth the path with DRC Govt.
I believe that this is highly improbable. Zijin will counter any proposals with details of what they have spent on payments to Cominiere and others, plus drilling costs etc on Manono and Hydro Power upgrade costs.
A further concern is what amount of PR13359 will AVZ/Cath gain. I doubt it will be the total amount, but hope that AVZ's original boundaries which include the camp and water access are gained as a minimum. If Zijin/Cominiere retain any amount of 13359 they could build an extremely large plant and the output could provide similar results to what has occurred in the Nickel market.
The other issue is ownership/access/operational items for any Manono Lithium output.
Who owns/controls/builds/operates/markets output. Will any of these be used as bargaining chips?
1. Hydro Power, 2.Water, 3. Transport 4. Tin etc
Like the majority of shareholders, I have NFI about what is happening with these negotiations. The above only covers part of the possible options, but it is an attempt to alert shareholders of the complexity as I see it that the Board is facing.
I have made these comments as I felt they needed to be aired, as it may come to pass that as shareholders we have to vote on an agreement.
These comments are not financial advice but a general opinion of the current situation as I see it.
It is now a bit clearer why the Locke deal took so long. The Cath deal was also running in parallel for some of the time.
I suspect that Cath has nearly all the ducks lined up with all groups involved, and we are only waiting on the finer details to be signed off by each party before the Chinese Govt. gives the seal of approval. This must have been a massive effort, as the groups involved include DRC Govt, Cominiere, Dathomir, Zijin, AVZ, Cath and the Chinese Govt. Cath's size, reputation, and ability to conclude deals were some of the ingredients that AVZ lacked.
I have a few concerns, and we can only hope that our Board can get some success in protecting the Company and Shareholders. AVZ does not have a lot of clout or big brother support. Shareholders must recognise that Cath will not be a benevolent supporter of shareholders.
The Cath deal announcement by AVZ makes no comment about the legal issues. Interestingly, neither party has paid the fees to progress the cases. AVZ indicated that they would pay, but we have no confirmation of this action. Don't forget we were told that the deal with Locke was finalised but we had no confirmation of any signing. Cath proposes to provide funds at the end of January. Is this too late? Is termination of legal action part of the Cath deal? What happens if the deal falls over? I doubt that AVZ will get any substantial funds from the judgements made to date, but AVZ may be able to use these legal awards as bargaining chips.
The price Cath pays for their 30.5% of the total project is just under $300 million. How were these figures worked out? Is it as a result of other deals? With AVZ being left with 29.5% ( based on the initial 60% holding ) this should highlight to shareholders that AVZ's value is nowhere near some of the dreams postulated by a few.
Yes, if the Dathomir deal is sorted, AVZ can go to 44.5% of the project. I believe Cath is the only group that can get this finalised. AVZ requires this to be fixed to cancel the DRC Court's rulings of penalties against AVZ, and to eliminate the action against Graeme Johnston. Funds held in escrow how will this be fixed? Will Dathomir be paid any extra?
Regarding Cominiere, is it possible to cancel previous deals regarding AVZ's ROFR. If AVZ can gain a minimum of 6% of Cominiere's original 25%, and agreement is made that payment is offset by the approx $60 million legal costs awarded against Cominiere, this could lift AVZ's share to 51%. Zijin to retain the other 9% (?) and Cominiere pass on the 10% to DRC Govt.
Shareholding then Cath 30.5%, AVZ 50.5%, Zijin 9 % and DRC Govt 10%. Cath may dangle the Lithium Hydroxide or other material upgrading to smooth the path with DRC Govt.
I believe that this is highly improbable. Zijin will counter any proposals with details of what they have spent on payments to Cominiere and others, plus drilling costs etc on Manono and Hydro Power upgrade costs.
A further concern is what amount of PR13359 will AVZ/Cath gain. I doubt it will be the total amount, but hope that AVZ's original boundaries which include the camp and water access are gained as a minimum. If Zijin/Cominiere retain any amount of 13359 they could build an extremely large plant and the output could provide similar results to what has occurred in the Nickel market.
The other issue is ownership/access/operational items for any Manono Lithium output.
Who owns/controls/builds/operates/markets output. Will any of these be used as bargaining chips?
1. Hydro Power, 2.Water, 3. Transport 4. Tin etc
Like the majority of shareholders, I have NFI about what is happening with these negotiations. The above only covers part of the possible options, but it is an attempt to alert shareholders of the complexity as I see it that the Board is facing.
I have made these comments as I felt they needed to be aired, as it may come to pass that as shareholders we have to vote on an agreement.
These comments are not financial advice but a general opinion of the current situation as I see it.
Thank you for your post but feel you have AVZ coming with cap in hand begging for anything we can get, I think AVZ are in a far more powerful position than you paint the situation.
Now you may be correct in your appraisal but since this latest announcement our prospects have been given a huge boost, why are Cath dealing with AVZ considering most of our nemesis say we don’t own anything and booted out of the country, why isn’t Cath dealing with Zijin, DRC and Cominiere for a piece of the pie ?
I hope we continue with court action to make our position clear to everyone involved. To me DRC, Zijin, cong and Cominiere are straight up corrupt crooks and should shut the fuck up and be entitled to nothing for what they have done to shareholders and their own peopl.
cruiser51
Top 20
cruiser51
Top 20
Which shane?
There are so many of the fuckers.
Is shane having an argument with the other shane, or simply behaving like a shane.
Carlos Danger
Top 20
Yeah that timeframe lines up with the 2023 annual report and December 2023 quarterly definitions
Although I don’t really care when or why it happened
Was more interested in the procedural process and any legal implications it may have caused
I was concerned by Cominiere saying at the ICC regarding Dathcom that ‘GLH is not a shareholder of the company and that the transfer of AVZ shares to the latter was not ratified by the company’
But Article 9.1A of the Datchom JVA is clear that transfers to affiliate / associate companies can be done freely as long as the stipulations are met
However technically an affiliate / associate company does differ from a subsidiary in ownership rules
Perhaps there is a different clause they are using. Either way I’m sure it’s all good. Both the ICC and the ICSID recognise GLH so Cominiere are probably just talking shit like usual.
Mr Inappropriate
Regular
Something to keep in mind: If the asset were to be sold, 30% of the proceeds go to the corrupt government of the DRC*. Should this thing finally reach a resolution i’d prefer we relist (here/Singapore) and give people the option as to how and when they exit.
*If we did offload the asset i‘d be furious if we just wrote a cheque to the DRC government for the 30%. Make them chase us through the courts for years.
DiscoDanNZ
Regular
The purpose of the announcement was to announce the deal not comment on the legal issues and they most likely wouldn't draw down on the loan before the announcement is made.
Sometimes it's best not to overthink things, especially in our case where there is a massive misinformation from the other side.
DiscoDanNZ
Regular
I just had a brief scroll through his Twitter and all I could think was this:
Also fucking laughable is the fact he has 22.3k posts (calm the fuck down Elon Musk but from Wish). He has over 800 followers yet only manages 1-5 likes on his posts and even fewer comments, most of them recently are me either telling him to shut the fuck up or pointing out that he refers to himself in the third person a lot.
I have a friend with one of those chubby grey cats, put that fucker in a Pikachu costume and it would get better numbers than that in a day.
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Mr Inappropriate
Regular
That’s incomprehensible dribble (Der Geist). I expect he’s autistic - he probably does algebra for fun and in the long winter evenings belts out tunes on the Hammond organ (with his mum on vocals), but he sure as shit can’t write a coherent statement.
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