AVZ Discussion 2022

[Mute22]

A slight positive you could take from that is that we have an opportunity to get our money back? With all of this shit fuckery I suspect a lot of people who planned on this being a long-term/retirement fund hold will be out the door when an opportunity arises.*

*I will be one of them, I've gone from looking at this as a 10 year hold, debt free early retirement to a 'can I one day pay off 25% of my mortgage?'


Anywho, hey guys hope you are all doing well!

I see this announcement as a huge positive. Am I also reading it correctly that it looks like CATH are basically going to fund the first stage of development? Been out of the loop for a bit and don't know what to think anymore.


P.S I'm going to be in Freemantle on the 21st of Feb and my plan is to have a beer in every pub in Freo while my mates go to Rottnest for the day if anyone wants to catch up for a beer

Shareholder expectations regarding a potential buyout or exit strategy are going to be pretty mixed. The key question on everyone's mind is, what is the minimum threshold that management would even consider presenting after all this?

With lithium prices currently depressed, I don't know much about valuing the life of the project, but will be challenging to justify a valuation that satisfies investors who bought in at prices exceeding $1.30 or near ATH in the current market.

 

[PhatCatz]

Do we still have controlling interest even if the Chinese get everything else? And we don’t get the first right to buy etc. but the Chinese do?

 

[Hodlandwin69]

Do we still have controlling interest even if the Chinese get everything else? And we don’t get the first right to buy etc. but the Chinese do?

Sounds like. Say we end up with 60% and cominiere get away with selling 15% and dathomir get their 15% back. CATH will get 30.5% stake in manonon indirectly. So AVZ via GLH will hold 60% with CATH having indirect exposure. Technically they have a higher ownership of 30.5% (more than half ours) but it's indirect so they still answer to the board I guess.....
But yeh hopefully we end up with at least more than 60%....

 

[PhatCatz]

Sounds like. Say we end up with 60% and cominiere get away with selling 15% and dathomir get their 15% back. CATH will get 30.5% stake in manonon indirectly. So AVZ via GLH will hold 60% with CATH having indirect exposure. Technically they have a higher ownership of 30.5% (more than half ours) but it's indirect so they still answer to the board I guess.....
But yeh hopefully we end up with at least more than 60%....

thanks for the response. I wonder how this will play out with the voting rights etc.

but it seems a good news at first glance but with most things Chinese there is always a longer-term goal here that is in their best interests. They want complete control and having more influence and voting rights could sway for a cheap takeover vote at a later date.

but at least things are progressing. I wonder if the company advertising it won't need Locke means we have already closed that option? crazy to do IMO. I'd have liked to keep that open but just don't draw down on it if games are played... and money goes ":missing"

 

[TheCount]

Zijin wants to start mining 2026, US blacklists CATL from military contracts, AVZ uses Locke deal to leverage a slightly better deal from CATH. Rio bought arcadium, PLL+SYA merging (and PLL selling A11 shares), so seems like there are a few things bubbling away.

I have bottom drawed all my lithium holdings because of how cold things are now but a few things I am inferring - US only cares about weakening China (but doesn't really want much to do with Africa beyond that). EV/Electrification in US will likely not accelerate like was predicted in early 2020s.... they kicked the can down the road and likely its another 3-5 years before another big lithium boom, at which point HOPEFULLY AVZ is at a point it can be sold and we haven't been diluted too much.

There is also discussions surrounding Saudi, UAE etc sniffing around.

The latest 3 videos from 121 Mining reveal some basic info, here's one....

121 Mining on M&A

TC.

 

[Yaseen]

The same creeps who tried to squeeze us out now want a better deal, lol, fuck these mofo's. Anywho, let's hope we can get our money back soon, nothing else matters at this stage

 

[Ashlee]

I was worried I'd made a mistake somewhere in my roughing it out, and very glad the correction aparently works in our favour

Curious why the change though.

Maybe AVZ will re-list on Singapore market.

 

[Hodlandwin69]

The same creeps who tried to squeeze us out now want a better deal, lol, fuck these mofo's. Anywho, let's hope we can get our money back soon, nothing else matters at this stage

CATH is its own independent company. Regardless of their friendliness or not with the board, they are obliged to vote and act in the best interest of their own company, which I guess, at the time, was with MAGA. They were probably promised something good if MAGA won and probably thought AVZ was dead, but now AVZ is alive and they're on board I guess. CATH had no reason to go down with, what they thought, was a sinking ship.

Do we crucify them for abandoning us out of spite, or just make it water under the bridge as long as they support us? I for one would like a big CATL associate batting in our corner with likely fully sorted offtake agreements by the time we are producing (it we get there)

 

[M.Bison]

Best announcement I have seen from AVZ in probably 2 years. CATH now funding our legal battles against Zijin. I can't help but be happy about this.

 

[Xerof]

Relationship Deed


The relationship deed between AVZ and CATH provides for:
- a restriction on any disposal of AVZ shares by CATH (or any of its associates) to certain prohibited
parties; Zijin, MAGA cunts
- an undertaking by CATH (and each of its associates holding AVZ shares) to extend certain agreed
supports to AVZ; and vote in favour of resolutions
- for CATH to provide reasonable assistance to AVZ in respect of certain shareholder-related
proceedings. Fund WASC proceedings v MAGA cunts

 

[wombat74]

I like this bit : "AVZ and CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government to secure and accelerate the development of the Manono Project."

Looks to me like we have found a way to satisfy a possible negotiated outcome . Zijin/CCP get their slice , The DRC Gov avoid the ICSID and AVZ get out of this f--king Mess .

 

[TheCount]

Nigel Ferguson "we will go mining", great to see he's keeping to his word.

 

[BRICK]

Maybe AVZ will re-list on Singapore market.

Rather re-list in the US of canada, panama and greenland

 

[Roon]

I like this bit : "AVZ and CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government to secure and accelerate the development of the Manono Project."

Looks to me like we have found a way to satisfy a possible negotiated outcome . Zijin/CCP get their slice , The DRC Gov avoid the ICSID and AVZ get out of this f--king Mess .

Despite some reservations about this situation and parts of the announcement, i think that, on the whole, this is a positive development.

Having a big player like CATH/CATL backing our play and agreeing to leverage their influence on the DRC government could be the game changer we need. I was growing concerned that DRC were willing to go through the full ICSID process and then delay and obfuscate for many years after an award, tiring us and our funding out until we eventually accepted a Lowball settlement. However, this seems like it could present a way out in which all involved could get a slice of the pie. This may result in a negotiated outcome.

Glencore has operated effectively in DRC in part due to its involvement with its partner Zijin, perhaps a similar relationship with CATH/CATL is what we need to progress the Project forward.

I mean it's a good deal for CATH, but they've got the leverage, not us. It's also probably a bit of a master-stroke by the Chinese in that they'll likely control the output of Manono's entirety despite who succeeds. Bets are hedged. But they're no slouches in business and resource control! And hell, nobody has stepped up to resolve this to suit their own interests, like Aus/US, so this may well be in our own current best interests - certainly in comparison to the existential risk of being frozen out entirely.

This is as hopeful as I've been in the last two years.

One side point - i wonder if Locke will push back at all, given that an agreement with a minimum repayment spend of 10m was agreed. Will see i guess.

INTERESTING TIMES

 

[Ashlee]

I like this bit : "AVZ and CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government to secure and accelerate the development of the Manono Project."

Looks to me like we have found a way to satisfy a possible negotiated outcome . Zijin/CCP get their slice , The DRC Gov avoid the ICSID and AVZ get out of this f--king Mess .

And the DRC potentially get to realise their dream of Battery Manufacturing.

 

[whales]

I like this bit : "AVZ and CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government to secure and accelerate the development of the Manono Project."

Looks to me like we have found a way to satisfy a possible negotiated outcome . Zijin/CCP get their slice , The DRC Gov avoid the ICSID and AVZ get out of this f--king Mess .

Agree Wombat
Most important now is CATH provides a major criteria in DATHCOM receiving a mining license .
Ability to fund mining with off takes.
Whether it is only for Roche Dure or Zijin pay a fair price for Carrier ??
Very positive for AVZ and its shareholders.
China finally comes to its senses and realises that illegal mining of Monano has far greater implications .
Now when will a mining license be granted before court arbitratration ?

 

[Frank]

Nigel Ferguson "we will go mining", great to see he's keeping to his word.

That's just for you Count - couldn't help myself, been a long while since Bart made an appearance

Not to mention my old mate Homer

GLTAH's

Cheers

Frank

 

[BEISHA]

View attachment 75493 View attachment 75494 View attachment 75496 View attachment 75497

Well fark me, Deboss did warn me this announcement would be a bit of a head fuck ......

For once, the word " imminent " was on the money......

 

[Frank]

x.com

x.com

x.com

x.com

 

[Remark]

Well fark me, Deboss did warn me this announcement would be a bit of a head fuck ......


View attachment 75534
yet
For once, the word " imminent " was on the money......

I definitely wasn't expecting this one Beish, talk about a left field announcement!

Great news IMO, there's life in this old dog yet.