AVZ Discussion 2022

[cruiser51]

I like this bit : "AVZ and CATH have agreed to work collaboratively to constructively engage with the DRC Government to secure and accelerate the development of the Manono Project."

Looks to me like we have found a way to satisfy a possible negotiated outcome . Zijin/CCP get their slice , The DRC Gov avoid the ICSID and AVZ get out of this f--king Mess .

First steps get in charge of 13359 and acquire the ML.
Keep ICC and ICSID arbitration cases going until the above achieved, signed and sealed in fucking blood.
To progress the arbitration cases, funding was required by end of month, early February.
The move of using GLH is to keep the Australian Government out of the picture because GLH is a Singaporean entity.
The Australian Government interests are to protect Australian mining.
To expect them to lift one finger to get Manono up and going was never going to happen.

Is it a good deal?
Locke funding was made as an interim, but I believe this deal to be better.
Locke held all the cards and could screw us completely over.
They aren't silly and had put a huge price on the risk they were prepared to take.
I would have been also very careful to go into sea with them.
I had in the back of my mind, this looks like a fucking Cash Converters type of deal, but it was needed at the time.
On the surface the deal with Cath seems to be much more advantageous, because it gives funding to continue with the arbitration cases and guarantees funding to build the mine.
A requirement for the ML.

Soooo
It looks like Zijin's so called announcement to start mining early 2026 seems to be a tactical move in this chess game.
They found out the Cath deal was about to happen.

It is in my eyes the exact reason that AVZ has to continue to keep its cards very close to its chest.

 

[Pokok]

Well fark me, Deboss did warn me this announcement would be a bit of a head fuck ......


View attachment 75534

For once, the word " imminent " was on the money......

Its early morning here , it's a great ann but it still depends all on a mining licence ?? . Hopefully for north and south as north is still in stolen hands any thoughts

 

[tonster66]

13359 is inclusive of the north, south, east and west imo

 

[Flight996]

Its early morning here , it's a great ann but it still depends all on a mining licence ?? . Hopefully for north and south as north is still in stolen hands any thoughts

It's a complex agreement for sure with many moving parts and co-dependencies. However, there are also many opportunities so I am quietly hopeful.

While I want to see CATH and Zijin butt heads, and in turn Zijin and Cominiere butt heads, I feel that ultimately Beijing will continue to call the shots and keep them on song. It's a bit early to speculate on what will be Beijing's message to CATH, Zijin, but at the end of the day Beijing needs Manono more than Manono needs Beijing.

This announcement shows that the old girl still has a pulse, and remains defiant against the DRC's and China's shitfuckery.

Cheers
F

 

[BEISHA]

I definitely wasn't expecting this one Beish, talk about a left field announcement!

Great news IMO, there's life in this old dog yet.

Left field alright !

Massive U turn going on here.

Cath funding AVZ litigation in lieu of Locke against their fellow chinese state competitor Zijin & co ?

AVZ going mining ?

Well fark me, for once we can talk stock ?

Well, i need to chat to the BOSS to get some clarifications, but on first read this is extremely positive, blown away to be @Frank !



Well done AVZ BOD !

 

[JasonM]

I dont think avz are going mining, they have to say that. I think they'll sell out once ml is granted. at least if there are no bidders at a reaonable price then they'll have the backup option to mine but highly confident it'll be cath and someone else that takes it mining.

 

[Winenut]

All I can say after pretty crappy news for nearly the last 3 years is....

 

[cruiser51]

I dont think avz are going mining, they have to say that. I think they'll sell out once ml is granted. at least if there are no bidders at a reaonable price then they'll have the backup option to mine but highly confident it'll be cath and someone else that takes it mining.

Why do you believe AVZ HAS to say that?
It would be a pretty fucking stupid statement at this stage.

 

[Mute22]

Deboss's take, shame he had to use ChatGPT (You can tell because of the US English and em dashes)



Interesting statement given his recent inside relationship with management:

 

[BEISHA]

x.com

x.com

The boss just sent me this link for summary.

He is positive, everyone else should be happy too.!

 

[BEISHA]

First steps get in charge of 13359 and acquire the ML.
Keep ICC and ICSID arbitration cases going until the above achieved, signed and sealed in fucking blood.
To progress the arbitration cases, funding was required by end of month, early February.
The move of using GLH is to keep the Australian Government out of the picture because GLH is a Singaporean entity.
The Australian Government interests are to protect Australian mining.
To expect them to lift one finger to get Manono up and going was never going to happen.

Is it a good deal?
Locke funding was made as an interim, but I believe this deal to be better.
Locke held all the cards and could screw us completely over.
They aren't silly and had put a huge price on the risk they were prepared to take.
I would have been also very careful to go into sea with them.
I had in the back of my mind, this looks like a fucking Cash Converters type of deal, but it was needed at the time.
On the surface the deal with Cath seems to be much more advantageous, because it gives funding to continue with the arbitration cases and guarantees funding to build the mine.
A requirement for the ML.

Soooo
It looks like Zijin's so called announcement to start mining early 2026 seems to be a tactical move in this chess game.
They found out the Cath deal was about to happen.

It is in my eyes the exact reason that AVZ has to continue to keep its cards very close to its chest.

The CATH deal incorporates a working capital component which wasnt included in the Locke deal. 9% interest rate not too excessive and the collateral backing not as onerous.

 

[BEISHA]

@tolate

 

[PhatCatz]

is Locke funding dead? can we still draw from it if required? I don't know if it was wise to can it without ML granted... isnt this agreement only valid once ML is granted to the whole of the tenement?

So many questions I can't find an answer too.

Nonetheless it seems (on face value) a better outcome than Locke but still... i just can't trust the Chinese.

 

[Dutchaussie86]

Fatz I suggest you have another read of the ann. Your answer is there buddy.

 

[Hemicuda]

13359 is inclusive of the north, south, east and west imo

 

[JasonM]

Why do you believe AVZ HAS to say that?
It would be a pretty fucking stupid statement at this stage.

just to clarify, I'm stating avz has to say their intent is to go mining.

they're applying/wanting to recover the mining license which obviously allows them to go mining. It would be a bad look to be stating they want the mining lease so they can sell the asset. If it was avz's stated intent to sell if off on the back of this announcement, then drc may start asking themselves why grant the mining lease to a company that has no intention of going mining. all speculation on my part of course.

 

[Ashlee]

just to clarify, I'm stating avz has to say their intent is to go mining.

they're applying/wanting to recover the mining license which obviously allows them to go mining. It would be a bad look to be stating they want the mining lease so they can sell the asset. If it was avz's stated intent to sell if off on the back of this announcement, then drc may start asking themselves why grant the mining lease to a company that has no intention of going mining. all speculation on my part of course.

Jason I don’t agree with you.

 

[Roon]

The CATH deal incorporates a working capital component which wasnt included in the Locke deal. 9% interest rate not too excessive and the collateral backing not as onerous.

The initial collateral backing anyway. We don't know what the security backing is going to have to be after this first tranche is completed. They'll probably have solid leverage to push for something onerous. But that's probably a year down the line, lots of time for positive developments or momentum in that period.

 

[taofufa]

I dont think avz are going mining, they have to say that. I think they'll sell out once ml is granted. at least if there are no bidders at a reaonable price then they'll have the backup option to mine but highly confident it'll be cath and someone else that takes it mining.

Like Ganfeng TO LLL, let's hope this time will be different.

Im rather the stock remain delist for another year until the lithium pricing bounce back.

 

[DiscoDanNZ]

13359 is inclusive of the north, south, east and west imo

All I could think reading this (the dark shadowy place is the North).