I've been trying to get an overview of this shit again for the last few days and would like to share my thoughts and assumptions with you.
As already mentioned several times i have no idea what the truth is but some things just don't seem logical to me.
My main question:
Why should cami block us so long and how is it possible? Which scenarios could happen?
Yesterday I talked to a guy on twitter about our case who is probably very active in the mining sector in drc, i think his knowledge seems legit.
a few conditions of the mining code to transform PR in PE which are the most important in our case:
-Financing must be clear
-one party need mininum 51% ownership
-the state get 10% undiluted shares
- issue: Ownership
After the minister of portfolio our current ownership is 60% AVZ 15% Dathomir 15% Zijin 5% MMCS 5% Cominiere.
Under our JV agreement Cominiere have to cede 10% to the State as a condition of the award of the mining licence. But after the Minister of Portfolio Cominiere have no 10% left.
Next point christian lukasu said in a letter that when continue discussions with zijin could risk tainting the conversion of PR in PE because cami is examining the shareholder stucture. The RCCM stil have 60% AVZ 15% Dathomir and 25% Cominiere registered, but 30% are under arbitration dispute now and the left 5% MMCS there is no information. I don't know if cami have a problem with the 30% in dispute or the 10% that are not possible to cede to state is the bigger problem.
2. issue:
Financing in combination with 51% minimum ownership
The 15% we bought from Dathomir are under dispute. It looks like we need the ICC ruling that the state accept the 75%. For the moment it's possible we can only work with 60%. So we can't sell 24% to Cath at the moment, because we would not have the 51% minimun ownership and loose our possibility to finance the project. Only solution: WE NEED A NEW CATH DEAL!!!!!!
But i think that is quite possible in the short time when cath is willing to help us.
I personally believe the main reasons for cami does not continue with the calculation of the surface rights to finally transform the PR in PE, are that the ownership situation has not been clearly clarified at the moment and after the Minister of Portfilio Cominiere have no 10% left to cede it to the state.
What could happen? Unfortunately, there are now so many innumerable possibilities.
In this part i try to imagine everything possible even the worst scenarios.
First of all, zijin took us to the ICC and it looks like they have very good and expensive lawyers. If the laws are so clear why are they doing this?
- they think they have chances, otherwise they would just waste money. I don't think they are so stupid
- it's a tactical plan to prevent the granting of the PE until we have no money, get delisted or a new formed government in 2024 kicks us out
- they think they did nothing wrong and just want that 15% and are ready to start the project and are pissed because AVZ I do not want that
- it's the beginning of a hostile takeover in the next years
I'm not worried about the dathomir case, I think we'll definitely win this one. I just hope that would not a reason for cami to delay the process further.
Relating to MMCS, I think we have the possibility to make a deal with them and pay some money or we took cominiere to ICC, and the next shit will take years to solve. I dont think MMCS will step down from their 5% after all these years fighting.
Our Main Problem: TIME!
I understand the management absolutely I would not want to work with crooks, but what do you get out of it if you have to fight the whole thing for many years? You risk losing the project after the next election if the next President is on the chinese side. And you could lose any chance of making money or helping your shareholders and the population. Even if we have to deal with Zijin it's still better than ending up with nothing.
- So we can fight until the end, this could take many years. I don't think zijin will just give up on icc....never, they have time and money.
- We make a deal with MMCS to ensure the 10% can cede to the state and we get the ML and can fight agains zijin/dathomir no matter how long it takes, but this is only possible if we negotiate a new deal with cath and cami still have no problem with it
- We don't get the ML in reason of all the claims, no one is giving up and we have to come out of voluntary suspension one day befor we get delisted and risk a massive slump in the share price and run the risk of becoming a victim of an hostile takeover. but at one point the price would turn I hope because they have to buy a lot shares. And then they continue fighting, but this is only possible when they dont get kicked out from the next DRC Government and have enought money. To be honest that would really be the dumbest thing the management could do.
- Zijin giving up
- The ICC is ruling fast, but I really doubt it. It took 1 fuckin year to open the case and have the first session. MMCS and Cominiere case did not make it to the final hearing after more than 3 years
- We got delisted one day
- The DRC helps us and rules agains the MoP and cami
- we are already forced to fight until the end because the fronts are already too hardened and they will not stop acting against us
- we work together with Zijin and have 51% AVZ 24% Cath 15% Zijin 10% DRC, make a lot of money and and protect us against a hostile takeover with a very high share price and would have the main control.
There are quiet more possibilities i think. I just hope it's not to late for our managment to make some deals in the worst case and save us and the project. But perhaps they have a Master Plan.....new Cath deal, get Money to give it to MMCS, they give their 5% back, Cominiere can cede the 10% to the state and we get our Mining License and can fight against Zijin and Dathomir until we win it
if that is not possible we have the biggest disadvantage, the time against us.
I don't believe the ownership problems are not the reason why we get no ML, cami gave us a important part last year. Maybe that's the problem when cami said: get out of the mess. Yeah, maybe he dont finalise the calculation, but maybe he has a reason or instruction to do so?
