obe wan
Regular
Agree.prior to friday , I was kinda hoping for a pullback where I was looking to pick up more...but Friday was a bit of a bummer, I was 100% expecting asx200 boot, but not the 300. The asx200 does have 4 sub index’s related to it in which compulsory selling will need to occur from; so expecting a bit of heavy volume up front, prior to that I was thinking a pullback to 70c even on news before quickly turning around and heading north again; for me it was a no brainer..
Asx200/300 exclusion...that 70c mark now possibly out the window, could be more of a lower 60c mark, so i’ll just sit and wait until I'm comfortable with moving and getting the best price possible.
Those 145m shorts will provide some buffer ; also compulsory sales will be another case of one mans garbage and another mans treasure, albeit I think if the news we seek comes out ; they will be very reluctant sales but necessary for compliance. Investors, those that considered pre ML to much and no doubt lunchbox traders will add to the frenzy ‘ point is now when ML comes through a significant amount of risk is sent packing ; we’ll have travelled through the valley where many trolls / dickheads / regular investors etc would have told us that we were nuts to be doing mid trip.....now that that journey has finished ; a lot of risk has alleviated...the risk in front now, is that, should we hold the ML, we become very hot property....this provides more financial opportunity for holders. At current 2.7b compared to Oz resources, we are a snip.....pullback from that point due to as exclusion repercussions.....well wow, what opportunity compliance actually puts a feast on the table whilst locking some of the big end of town outside...it will also trigger advances from majors I reckon; some around the block driller news is that the project is going to pack on some serious proven weight...; it's also gained some pretty pin point attention ; Blinkens visit to the DRC had a large agenda with regard mining and corruption ; Blinken urged the DRC to publish all mining contracts and increased interaction between both countries could really only occur once corruption starts to get cleaned up ; AVZ minerals / Manono has certainly had a few fluro light attached to the name ever since this zijin ( a major) thing started and snowballed; the yanks will have become pretty familiar with Manono now and surely would be watching closely as to how the DRC has gone about handling it.
So now ; AVZ rises from the ashes, ML in hand for a mega lithium project ; it's highly likely that yank funds will start to roll in ; leaving asx retrainted funds on the outside of the fish tank ; the likes of Glencore etc would surely be moving turet...whilst also knowing the Chinese have a FIRB shackle on them. I'm predicting a bit of heavy peppering on open and up till rebalance on the 19th, also with some large closing auction cross overs along the way, personally I hope they hold off with drill and revised financial figures till after the 19th; after that I reckon it will be all guns blazing for AVZ, no shorting crap to deal with, CAT etc and well back over $1 pretty quickly ; the AVZ threads will gain a lot of born against and converted trolls ; eventually reentering asx 300/200, from where, if AVZ are still in controll of Manono I reckon nicely over $2 mark
