AVZ Discussion 2022

[TDITD]

L

Looks too big to be taken orally Frank

fuck well that's no good, if we end up losing to Zijin and Dathomir then its gonna slip right out as soon as its put in.

 

[John25]

fuck well that's no good, if we end up losing to Zijin and Dathomir then its gonna slip right out as soon as its put in.

We should be ok ...you know what they say about Asian dicks

 

[Samus]

Hey Wino, Just wondering, you on the same Meds as Me atm


View attachment 13382

Wino said he's on the mushies, so I can see why he's upset. He'll have realised the meaning of life and the secrets of the universe but still have no fucking idea what's going on at Manono!
Btw I'll take some of that, but intravenous rather than rectal thanks.
Need a real good hit.

 

[BEISHA]

I do believe a TO will eventually materialise, I never believed AVZ is staffed, experienced or capable to design, procure, construct and run the largest hard rock lithium mine and transport its product. But IMO the company will never be allowed to be sold wholly to a Chinese entity, it would not get through FIRB. One of large Australian miners or international consortium is more realistic. The Chinese challenges IMO all revolve around % ownership of Dathcom and the ML tenement split, not AVZ TO.

However TO will not happen until a number of things fall into place to have clarity on the value of AVZ:
1) Clarity on the ML - what is covered, is CDL included or not - how much of the asset is covered for exploitation and how much under exploration, and with who
2) Ownership - does AVZ own 51%, 66%, 75% of Dathcom or something else
3) BFS on 4.5 and 10MTpa - put it out there how much AVZ thinks the asset is worth
4) MEZ - commercial / Tax regime
5) Further Off-takes?
6) Further drilling to increase resource base?

IMO we definitely need items 1, 2 and 3 to negotiate a TO.

" I never believed AVZ is staffed, experienced or capable to design , procure, construct and run the largest lithium mine and transport its product "

Cant say i agree with you there, Nigel and staff have got us to the ML decree stage rather nicely despite many obstacles i am sure and have brought CATH / CATL on board to utilise their vast experience in developing mines......so bases covered as far as i am concerned.

Now i may get scorched with what i am about to say next, but if i took the emotion out and just looked at the business at hand here, if Zijin does have a claim on the snack 15%, they have a good track record of developing mines too, now obviously no one knows what goes on in the inner sanctum of AVZ / DRC negotiations, but could there be a possibility that AVZ retains 51% control, CATH 24 % , Zijin 15%, DRC 10%, with Zijin paying DRC the balance of what is owed plus a pro rata sum of money to AVZ for the development / expense already under taken ?

Dont get me wrong, i dont trust Zijin as far as i can kick the bastards and my preference is to seek the 66% if it can be achieved, but if its going to settle relations on both sides and progress construction / production , whilst foregoing the long tedious ICC route, then maybe thats an option.

IMO of course.

 

[Flight996]

" I never believed AVZ is staffed, experienced or capable to design , procure, construct and run the largest lithium mine and transport its product "

Cant say i agree with you there, Nigel and staff have got us to the ML decree stage rather nicely despite many obstacles i am sure and have brought CATH / CATL on board to utilise their vast experience in developing mines......so bases covered as far as i am concerned.

Now i may get scorched with what i am about to say next, but if i took the emotion out and just looked at the business at hand here, if Zijin does have a claim on the snack 15%, they have a good track record of developing mines too, now obviously no one knows what goes on in the inner sanctum of AVZ / DRC negotiations, but could there be a possibility that AVZ retains 51% control, CATH 24 % , Zijin 15%, DRC 10%, with Zijin paying DRC the balance of what is owed plus a pro rata sum of money to AVZ for the development / expense already under taken ?

Dont get me wrong, i dont trust Zijin as far as i can kick the bastards and my preference is to seek the 66% if it can be achieved, but if its going to settle relations on both sides and progress construction / production , whilst foregoing the long tedious ICC route, then maybe thats an option.

IMO of course.

I have no idea which way this will go, but in your scenario Zinjin would also need to compensate AVZ for the opportunity cost of losing the 15% of project and its future income stream. That would be a sizable amount.

Cheers
F

 

[BEISHA]

I have no idea which way this will go, but in your scenario Zinjin would also need to compensate AVZ for the opportunity cost of losing the 15% of project and its future income stream. That would be a sizable amount.

Cheers
F

Correct me if i am wrong, but that extra 15% was never a given, it was to be negotiated.

Mr market valued AVZ as having 51% control up until the extended suspension.

Agree with you in the aspect that Zijin needs to compensate AVZ for devedlopment costs aleady spent plus an added premium of snacks for being a sneaky weasel...........

Aagh, who the fuck knows...........just gotta wait it out, meanwhile as @John25 has stated, lithium coys are turning the wheel nicely making some nice gains..

LTR 88 - 149, GLN 96 - 131, PLS 206 - 285, AKE 10 - 11.72 etc

FRUSTRATING indeed @Frank

imo

 

[CeckRaiseFold]

" I never believed AVZ is staffed, experienced or capable to design , procure, construct and run the largest lithium mine and transport its product "

Cant say i agree with you there, Nigel and staff have got us to the ML decree stage rather nicely despite many obstacles i am sure and have brought CATH / CATL on board to utilise their vast experience in developing mines......so bases covered as far as i am concerned.

Now i may get scorched with what i am about to say next, but if i took the emotion out and just looked at the business at hand here, if Zijin does have a claim on the snack 15%, they have a good track record of developing mines too, now obviously no one knows what goes on in the inner sanctum of AVZ / DRC negotiations, but could there be a possibility that AVZ retains 51% control, CATH 24 % , Zijin 15%, DRC 10%, with Zijin paying DRC the balance of what is owed plus a pro rata sum of money to AVZ for the development / expense already under taken ?

Dont get me wrong, i dont trust Zijin as far as i can kick the bastards and my preference is to seek the 66% if it can be achieved, but if its going to settle relations on both sides and progress construction / production , whilst foregoing the long tedious ICC route, then maybe thats an option.

IMO of course.

Agree - You paint a totally feasible and practical way out of this mess and probably preferred over a TO to maximise value in the long run through to production. It also covers the required mine building and operating skills in remote areas which I do insists AVZ does not have.

" I never believed AVZ is staffed, experienced or capable to design , procure, construct and run the largest lithium mine and transport its product "

Cant say i agree with you there, Nigel and staff have got us to the ML decree stage rather nicely despite many obstacles i am sure and have brought CATH / CATL on board to utilise their vast experience in developing mines......so bases covered as far as i am concerned.

Now i may get scorched with what i am about to say next, but if i took the emotion out and just looked at the business at hand here, if Zijin does have a claim on the snack 15%, they have a good track record of developing mines too, now obviously no one knows what goes on in the inner sanctum of AVZ / DRC negotiations, but could there be a possibility that AVZ retains 51% control, CATH 24 % , Zijin 15%, DRC 10%, with Zijin paying DRC the balance of what is owed plus a pro rata sum of money to AVZ for the development / expense already under taken ?

Dont get me wrong, i dont trust Zijin as far as i can kick the bastards and my preference is to seek the 66% if it can be achieved, but if its going to settle relations on both sides and progress construction / production , whilst foregoing the long tedious ICC route, then maybe thats an option.

IMO of course

 

[Winenut]

looking forward to the next one

They're rare but they're not bad

In a previous life many moons ago Optus received a serious expletive ridden rant and spray after a 2 year ridiculous dispute that I could no longer tolerate and finally had shit me to tears

The infamous "Optus letter" is still lovingly revered by my work colleagues at the time as one of the all time great "fuck you's" and often mentioned and laughed over at reunions!!!

Worked too.....never heard from Optus again!!

 

[Flight996]

Re Correct me if i am wrong, but that extra 15% was never a given, it was to be negotiated.

Sure, but my understanding is that AVZ had first call on this 15%, and proposed US$100m against Zijin's US$33m (of which only the deposit was paid in June 2021 anyway). Based on my limited understanding of this complex issue it follows that AVZ should therefore be compensated for the opportunity cost of lost value and income.
Of course the best outcome is that AVZ's claim on Cominnaire's 15% is upheld, and Zijin simply disappears up Kabila's fat butt never to heard from again.

Cheers
F

 

[mouseflying]

According to the pervious ann, CAMI is operate under the supervision of the minister of mines.

3 month ago, Minister of Mines has already signed the ministerial decree to award the Mining Licence.

it seems that MOM willing to give us the ML,

and why CAMI under her supervision still pending with surface right calculation?

hopefully, it can be solved asap....

 

[Mr Inappropriate]

For the record I am back on my meds and have resumed normal transmissions

Also for the record it felt fantastic and cathartic to get that out of the system

Each to their own hey pones...

"meds", hey? That translates to a glass of what, exactly? Asking for a friend...

 

[Frank]

Correct me if i am wrong, but that extra 15% was never a given, it was to be negotiated.

Mr market valued AVZ as having 51% control up until the extended suspension.

Agree with you in the aspect that Zijin needs to compensate AVZ for devedlopment costs aleady spent plus an added premium of snacks for being a sneaky weasel...........

Aagh, who the fuck knows...........just gotta wait it out, meanwhile as @John25 has stated, lithium coys are turning the wheel nicely making some nice gains..

LTR 88 - 149, GLN 96 - 131, PLS 206 - 285, AKE 10 - 11.72 etc

FRUSTRATING indeed @Frank

imo

*Re:- John's comments and the other Frankly Frustrating part atm, as I see where,

Insatiable lithium demand fuels investment boom in Australia​

In the rocky deserts of Western Australia, a handful of little-known and once-shunned miners are suddenly in vogue as the electric vehicle industry clamors for a metal it can’t do without.

Executives from Australia’s lithium industry were inundated by bankers and brokers at the Diggers & Dealers Mining Forum in the outback town of Kalgoorlie this week, talking up deals to secure some of the estimated $42 billion worth of investment needed for metal producers to meet their goals.

Global automakers have snapped up producers’ shares on the open market, scrapped over supply agreements and even handed over cash for mine expansions.

“The appetite is insatiable,” Dale Henderson, chief executive officer of Pilbara Minerals Ltd., said in an interview.

“Any producer in lithium is very popular at the moment.”

With all net growth in car sales last year coming from EVs, demand for the raw materials in batteries has ramped up suddenly.

China dominates the lithium supply chain, so Western nations have sought to develop their own production.

Miners in Australia — home to about half the world’s supply, according to the US Geological Survey — are now being courted by automakers waving checkbooks.

Liontown Resources Ltd. CEO Tony Ottaviano is careful not to boast about his foresight.

“I don’t want us to come across as self-indulgent because we have immense respect for our customers, but the simple fact is it takes five to eight years to bring greenfield supply online in tier-one jurisdictions,” he said.

When the company first went to carmakers and other manufacturers for its first offtake, “it’s safe to say that interest was low.” He said.

Most were unsure whether they should get too involved in the metal sourcing process, he explained.

“Roll the clock forward and we are seeing a completely different commercial posture,” he said.

In July, Ford Motor Co. announced an agreement with Liontown for nearly a third of the miner’s expected production over the coming years, at an undisclosed value.

The deal also saw Ford provide a A$300 million ($210 million) debt facility to Liontown to further expand its Kathleen Valley site.

That transaction followed Liontown’s earlier so-called offtake deals with Tesla Inc. and South Korean battery maker LG Chem Ltd.

It also came a week after European automaker Stellantis NV took an equity stake in Australian lithium miner Vulcan Energy Resources Ltd.

Creative deals​

As recently as 2020, few cared for the natural features of Pilgangoora, a remote Pilbara Minerals site where a red flower called Sturt’s Desert Pea and a few cattle sit atop the one of largest hard-rock lithium ore deposits in the world.

Pilbara’s shares traded at 13 Australian cents then, and have since risen to more than A$2.85, giving it a market value of about $5.8 billion.

Shares in Liontown have risen about 76 times since early 2019, to a value of around $2.2 billion.

The increase is mirrored in the price of lithium itself, which gained nearly 500% in the past year.

The lithium market will be tight and prices will likely remain elevated for the rest of the year, according to BloombergNEF.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has bemoaned the price spike on Twitter, suggesting the automaker may have to get into the mining and refining game.

Globally, the industry will need as much as $42 billion of investment by the end of the decade in order to meet demand, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

“Appetite for critical minerals from quality jurisdictions is currently the strongest we have seen,” said Campbell Cooper of investment bank Greenhill & Co., which advised Liontown on its recent deal with Ford.

“Given the competitive dynamic, deals need to be flexible and creative to succeed.”

Food for thought on the Road to Mining Manono Bro

Time for my Meds Fukitol

Cheers

Frank

 

[JasonM]

good to see endorsement of IGF, hopefully this means the powers that be follow on with the IGF report into comminere and void all their behaviour and that of zijin as illegal.





#RDC : "the IGF saves the Republic through the financial patrol. To go against it is to oppose a clear vision of a severe fight against embezzlement, a vision of the Head of State", says Thierry Monsenepwo

 

[Winenut]

"meds", hey? That translates to a glass of what, exactly? Asking for a friend...

Any Clare Riesling for entree followed by any South Aussie GSM or Cab/Shiraz blend for mains

 

[Skar]

PS - PLS targeting 1mt pa
AVZ targeting 4.5 - 10 mt pa to start

AVZ 4.5mtpa plant will yield 760kt or 780kt (I forget which) SC6 according to the DFS and the 10mtpa expansion scenario will yield 1.6Mt of SC6 (equivalent some will be processed into sulphate). i.e if the PLS expansion goes to plan this year, between their two mines, they match or exceed the output of what AVZ was planning for the end of 2023 AND its not locked in to low ball supply contracts, it goes on the BMX to the highest bidder (i.e their cash flow will be eyewatering, they said 500M last quarter... the lithium shortfall and possibly the price per ton they can get, might increase).

If comparing the two, the only Advantage I see for AVZ is its resource size, its HUGE!!!!! but PLS is an immediate money maker, in a better jurisdiction. AVZ COULD scale into an absolute juggernaut but we are already 8 months behind when we were expecting to get our ML awarded. I see people talking about $2, $5 TO etc... I would be over the move with a $1.50 TO this year... there is so much risk that was previously just glossed over.

All in my opinion, DYOR and obviously once we are off TH and back on track I will probably start liking AVZ a heck of a lot more again.

Edit: Correction PLS expected to be 680kt, not 780kt my bad.

 

[Frank]

*Fyi, Interesting to see what's happening just down the Road at our nearest Neighbours atm, as

Evolution of Electric Motor Vehicles, how ready are we as a Country?- Zambia​

The universal realization that climate change is real and its effects primarily global warming, has negatively affected the entire globe, prompting various nations to devise pragmatic mechanisms in which such effects can be curtailed.

Several intervention measures across various disciplines are being implemented world over to stem these adverse effects of climate change.

As a key mitigation measure, one of the most ambitious programs that many nations have committed themselves to is to cease the manufacture of fossil-fuel propelled automobiles between 2030 to 2050 and replace them with environmentally friendly Electric Motor Vehicles (EMVs).

Some measures we could undertake as a nation to adequately position for this technological shift in automobile industry include;

· Amend Chapter 87 of the Customs and Excise Act to propose reduction of customs duty on electric vehicles from the current 15% to 0. This would be a catalyst to promote capital injection through Foreign Direct Investments (FDI).

· Establish electronic vehicle manufacturing or assembly plants closer to the source of raw materials to lessen transportation and production costs; Copperbelt, North-western, Southern and Central could be ideal.

· Government through ZCCM-IH encouraged to sign Memorandum of Understanding with mining entities to return at least 1% (8.8Mn Kg) of their annual mineral output locally for production of components and accessories for approximately 100, 000 EVs/annum.

· Establish charging points countrywide in conjunction with power utilities and municipalities. The charging circuit can be activated by entry of a token.

· Increase awareness of the overall benefits of electric vehicles to stimulate the appetite for demand both locally and regionally.

Currently the cost of fuel is at K24.15 per litre while the cost of electricity is at 47 ngwee to K1.94/kWh, therefore driving an electric car would be approximately six (5) times cheaper than a fossil fuel one of equivalent passenger size and weight.

Hence, the service cost is also 30% lower over a comparable duration which makes electric vehicles unquestionably economical.

With Zambia endowed with key mineral inputs to the electric vehicle sector such as copper, cobalt and nickel, it accords the country a unique competitive advantage with a huge opportunity of being leaders in the field.

It’s important to note that the world is steadily migrating towards clean and green energy technologies in almost all sectors and Zambia cannot afford to ignore the trend. We should aim to be trendsetters as opposed to being trailblazers.

The Ministry of Green Economy and Environment has exhibited Government’s unwavering commitment towards curbing of greenhouse gasses.

The transport sector migrating to full electric vehicles from fossil fuels offers low hanging fruits towards net Zero Carbon Emissions.

If these measures are implemented, the country has the ability to go to full scale electronic vehicle manufacturing in the next 4-5 years, and complete phasing out of fossil fuels automobiles by 2052.

copperbeltkatangamining.com

You Snooze - You Lose

Food for thought Felix

No Pressure

Frank

 

[tonster66]

View attachment 13397
According to the pervious ann, CAMI is operate under the supervision of the minister of mines.

3 month ago, Minister of Mines has already signed the ministerial decree to award the Mining Licence.

it seems that MOM willing to give us the ML,

and why CAMI under her supervision still pending with surface right calculation?

hopefully, it can be solved asap....

Has anyone seen the decree? Maybe the decree had issues with it?

 

[mouseflying]

I just find this on facebook, seems MOM trying to replace the DG of CAMI a year ago.

Previous MOM also take action against this guy, see below:

DRC: Minister of Mines suspends Director General of the mining cadastre for "insubordination" - Copperbelt Katanga Mining

The Minister of Mines, Willy Kitobo, has decided to suspend the Director General of Mining Cadastre (CAMI), Jean-Félix Mupande Kapwa. In a correspondence

copperbeltkatangamining.com

WTF, why he is still there........

 

[wombat74]

If the ML doesn't drop by Aug 15 I think it's time for NF to give us some details as to why it's taking so long for this issue to be sorted. AVZ itself said ,“We regret that the period of voluntary suspension has lasted longer than was initially intended." If it's a legal issue and must remain confidential , then say it . If it's a schedule problem ("herding cats ") , then say it . Not going to affect the SP . We are in suspension . Or does Nigel think we are so close now an explanation at this point is not necessary .

 

[Soapy]

If the ML doesn't drop by Aug 15 I think it's time for NF to give us some details as to why it's taking so long for this issue to be sorted. AVZ itself said ,“We regret that the period of voluntary suspension has lasted longer than was initially intended." If it's a legal issue and must remain confidential , then say it . If it's a schedule problem ("herding cats ") , then say it . Not going to affect the SP . We are in suspension . Or does Nigel think we are so close now an explanation at this point is not necessary .

Few more extensions to come is my guess