Rediah
Regular
Tim will tell
AVZ Discussion 2022
- Thread starter GazDix
- Start date
cruiser51
Top 20
It's time for Tim too!!Tim will tell
For a period of time ( 4 yrs ) i worked as a real estate agent, dealt with the chinese people alot, they are very miserly and want a whole heap for nicks, so these ideas of grandeur that the chinese entities are going to pay AVZ a massive premium is just pure fantasy imo.I've been involved with business in China in a previous life
I still remember getting an agreement on a matter over a fine dinner and a good amount of booze one night in Xiamen
Next day when it was time to put pen to paper the response was ...."Yes, yes we agreed on price......but.... that was last night"
No shit
Business with China + DRC is obviously a million times crazier
I guess only tim will tell how this pans out!
The real value for AVZ SH is we sort this crap out, get the %%% that is rightfully ours , release all those juicy items that are waiting in storeage ( updated BFS being the juiciest ) and get on with construction and ultimately production, within 5 years or possibly less AVZ will be $10+ with consistent dividends in hand with the supergene profits they make......
AKE is currently $11+ with a big brine operation but a pissant hard rock operation relative to AVZ, and are situated in sovereign risk Argentina which is basically a banana republic, conducts big trade with China and has recently signed an MOU with the BELT & ROAD programme.
AKE ( ore & galaxy ) have been producing since 2015, so i make my FA assumption for AVZ based on that symmetry.
imo
For a period of time ( 4 yrs ) i worked as a real estate agent, dealt with the chinese people alot, they are very miserly and want a whole heap for nicks, so these ideas of grandeur that the chinese entities are going to pay AVZ a massive premium is just pure fantasy imo.
The real value for AVZ SH is we sort this crap out, get the %%% that is rightfully ours , release all those juicy items that are waiting in storeage ( updated BFS being the juiciest ) and get on with construction and ultimately production, within 5 years or possibly less AVZ will be $10+ with consistent dividends in hand with the supergene profits they make......
AKE is currently $11+ with a big brine operation but a pissant hard rock operation relative to AVZ, and are situated in sovereign risk Argentina which is basically a banana republic, conducts big trade with China and has recently signed an MOU with the BELT & ROAD programme.
AKE ( ore & galaxy ) have been producing since 2015, so i make my FA assumption for AVZ based on that symmetry.
imo
The only thing, is AKE is currently at a market cap of ~$7B.
AVZ is currently at $2B.
Assuming similar growth from 2015 to now as AKE (approximately multiple of 5.2) - our share price would be potentially circa $4. (Market cap of ~$8B).
I'd love AVZ to reach $10 (M.cap of ~ $25B) - but i would be tempering expectations.
pete or something? NO. what I was trying to establish was if the ph call was legit and I assumed if it was that you also would have got a call, nothing more, no hidden agenda. I do have a ph number as the call was not set to private, so at some stage, I will call that number to confirm for myself. But happy that Boss got a result, well done Boss and thks to all that put in the effort as well.
ps MB1348 yes I am a supporter/friend & always was.
Fair call mate, 5 yrs probably is a bit skinny, it depends on alot of factors, we are not privy yet on the updated DFS numbers, but my feeling is AVZ profit margins will be alot higher than AKE, especially with the tin offset, then we have the SEZ factor to consider as well, not to mention the longer term lithium price,...who knows really but i reckon we will be alot higher than $4 in 5 yrs thats for sure....
The point being, this take over talk of $2, 3 , 4 and upwards is just pure fantasy, the chinese will be looking at the $1 - 1.50 range tops..........which is snack robbery !
I really hope the BOD dont sell us out that cheap............or my preference..............not at all.
These chinese entities can go and get fucked as far as i am concerned, considering this emotional roller coaster we have all been thru, we deserve a whole heap better!!
imo
Last edited:
Fair call mate, 5 yrs probably is a bit skinny, it depends on alot of factors, we are not privy yet on the updated DFS numbers, but my feeling is AVZ profit margins will be alot higher than AKE, especially with the tin offset, then we have the SEZ factor to consider as well, not to mention the longer term lithium price,...who knows really but i reckon we will be alot higher than $4 in 5 yrs thats for sure....
The point being, this take over talk of $2, 3 , 4 and upwards is just pure fantasy, the chinese will be looking at the $1 - 1.50 range tops..........which is snack robbery !
I really hope the BOD dont sell us out that cheap............or my preference..............not at all.
These chinese entities can go and get fucked as far as i am concerned, considering this emotional roller coaster we have all been thru, we deserve a whole heap better!!
imo
Provided that things are resolved shortly and smoothly for us, i would expect that we should hit >$4 in due course. I would most likely be taking some profit off the table before than that however, just to fund a new house.
I (warily) believe NIgel's comments (posted here or at the crapper) that his intentions are to take Manono to be mined (i.e. not be sold out). Hopefully this is the case. However, if there is an offer that is too good to be true (dream of $10) i would be more than happy to accept, and get out - only issue is losing ~1/4 to tax... haha
cruiser51
Top 20
2nd from the left, the Director of Cami.
They forgot to remove the price tag from Antoinettes new cup, which she prolly will use as a new tea cup.
Looks much more elegant than the cup from Hard quiz.
Looks like the director of Cominière didn't get an invite, prolly because he is only temping.
Remark
Top 20
I believe the director of Cominière was presented earlier with some cutlery when he was given the snacks.
Looks like we might need that off-topic thread in the lounge after all lol,I think you know the only right thing to do in this situation right.........
share her pics
Here's for you Dollas4me in homage to your name
View attachment 13210
maybe they would have a chance of surviving over there.
Money sure isn't the most meaningful thing in life, but it sure does help with
having a lot of fun (as so accurately depicted lol), and some meaningful things
have come from helping others in need. I can thank AVZ for quite a bit of that.
Last edited:
CeckRaiseFold
Regular
I do believe a TO will eventually materialise, I never believed AVZ is staffed, experienced or capable to design, procure, construct and run the largest hard rock lithium mine and transport its product. But IMO the company will never be allowed to be sold wholly to a Chinese entity, it would not get through FIRB. One of large Australian miners or international consortium is more realistic. The Chinese challenges IMO all revolve around % ownership of Dathcom and the ML tenement split, not AVZ TO.Fair call mate, 5 yrs probably is a bit skinny, it depends on alot of factors, we are not privy yet on the updated DFS numbers, but my feeling is AVZ profit margins will be alot higher than AKE, especially with the tin offset, then we have the SEZ factor to consider as well, not to mention the longer term lithium price,...who knows really but i reckon we will be alot higher than $4 in 5 yrs thats for sure....
The point being, this take over talk of $2, 3 , 4 and upwards is just pure fantasy, the chinese will be looking at the $1 - 1.50 range tops..........which is snack robbery !
I really hope the BOD dont sell us out that cheap............or my preference..............not at all.
These chinese entities can go and get fucked as far as i am concerned, considering this emotional roller coaster we have all been thru, we deserve a whole heap better!!
imo
However TO will not happen until a number of things fall into place to have clarity on the value of AVZ:
1) Clarity on the ML - what is covered, is CDL included or not - how much of the asset is covered for exploitation and how much under exploration, and with who
2) Ownership - does AVZ own 51%, 66%, 75% of Dathcom or something else
3) BFS on 4.5 and 10MTpa - put it out there how much AVZ thinks the asset is worth
4) MEZ - commercial / Tax regime
5) Further Off-takes?
6) Further drilling to increase resource base?
IMO we definitely need items 1, 2 and 3 to negotiate a TO.
thorgin
Regular
Don't Split the Party!
TDITD
Top 20
My thoughts on this is the board don't want to be subjected to a TO, but I think external factors may force their hands possibly. For example that may even be mentioned in their discussions currently with Govt officials - example along the lines of,
AVZ : IGF have reported on how Cominiere are corrupt and allowing Zijin illegally to come into dathcom after all our hard work and money spent after 4-5yrs is this how you are going to encourage foreign investment ?
DRC Govt : We know this and we are fighting corruption so for public perception we will rule in your favour as we do have an election coming up, but we have our backs against the wall with the CCP they have threatened to turn off the investments and all the $$ available to the DRC if we do not give them access into the worlds largest lithium mine as of course again we do have an election coming up and need that $$. So you will have the ML and SEZ, but then we require you to sell to them, either all out or enough to dilute your holding as it suits us all to have an Australian miner on board for optics.
We really don't know what's happening behind the scenes and all the shady shit happening, chess pieces moving as they have always been surrounding manono.
On the other hand I'm hoping for DRC govt to truly have turned a corner in becoming a real democracy and not just all talk. In this situation, AVZ gets confirmed that they do in-fact legally hold 75% and informed their offer to buy the 15% off the Govt has been accepted, AVZ are now free to hand over 24% to CATL and get mining, SEZ, BFS, JV with CATL for a battery plant all coming and then obviously our true value will be reached, this is the path I believe our board are striving for and will support them in achieving.
John25
Regular
Come the 15/8 we’ve been in suspension for 14 F***ing Weeks & still nothing from Nigel (is he still around) or the ASX for a please explain for we are a top 200 ASX company .Back in Dec/Jan ,Nigel stated it was only a matter of days before a ML was to be granted …why arent we trading …accordingly we own anywhere between 51-75% …our money is tied up for what reason …We need the cold hard facts ,i think we deserve it …Lit stocks are starting to rise now …thanks for saving us on the slump but if we hold majority % why arent we trading …Sorry im a simplistic /patient person but my PATIENCE has worn awfully thin.FFS Nigel come out from under that rock you’ve been hiding & lead from the front ,we’re adults and can handle the truth…Rant over
Read the last quarterly statement - it confirms the reasons why we are in suspension right now.Come the 15/8 we’ve been in suspension for 14 F***ing Weeks & still nothing from Nigel (is he still around) or the ASX for a please explain for we are a top 200 ASX company .Back in Dec/Jan ,Nigel stated it was only a matter of days before a ML was to be granted …why arent we trading …accordingly we own anywhere between 51-75% …our money is tied up for what reason …We need the cold hard facts ,i think we deserve it …Lit stocks are starting to rise now …thanks for saving us on the slump but if we hold majority % why arent we trading …Sorry im a simplistic /patient person but my PATIENCE has worn awfully thin.FFS Nigel come out from under that rock you’ve been hiding & lead from the front ,we’re adults and can handle the truth…Rant over
Mickyb64
Regular
I don't have a problem with anyone having a rant about the current situation. I think we've all had a gut full. It's the perfect place to let off some steam, we're all in the same boat. I believe we'll get there in the end but if you need to have a rant then rant.
Remark
Top 20
Maintain the rage John, it's understandable.Come the 15/8 we’ve been in suspension for 14 F***ing Weeks & still nothing from Nigel (is he still around) or the ASX for a please explain for we are a top 200 ASX company .Back in Dec/Jan ,Nigel stated it was only a matter of days before a ML was to be granted …why arent we trading …accordingly we own anywhere between 51-75% …our money is tied up for what reason …We need the cold hard facts ,i think we deserve it …Lit stocks are starting to rise now …thanks for saving us on the slump but if we hold majority % why arent we trading …Sorry im a simplistic /patient person but my PATIENCE has worn awfully thin.FFS Nigel come out from under that rock you’ve been hiding & lead from the front ,we’re adults and can handle the truth…Rant over
CashKing
Regular
Cut & Copy that and email it to Nige or post to AVZ OfficeCome the 15/8 we’ve been in suspension for 14 F***ing Weeks & still nothing from Nigel (is he still around) or the ASX for a please explain for we are a top 200 ASX company .Back in Dec/Jan ,Nigel stated it was only a matter of days before a ML was to be granted …why arent we trading …accordingly we own anywhere between 51-75% …our money is tied up for what reason …We need the cold hard facts ,i think we deserve it …Lit stocks are starting to rise now …thanks for saving us on the slump but if we hold majority % why arent we trading …Sorry im a simplistic /patient person but my PATIENCE has worn awfully thin.FFS Nigel come out from under that rock you’ve been hiding & lead from the front ,we’re adults and can handle the truth…Rant over
Doubt they will do anything however...
Hey things could be worse , you could be on Hot Crapper entertaining Dickshift while we wait...
GLTAH
Similar threads
